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Political Parties >> The Greens >> NSW Getting Hotter ~ AGW http://www.ozpolitic.com/forum/YaBB.pl?num=1336945974 Message started by Greens_Win on May 14th, 2012 at 7:52am |
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Title: NSW Getting Hotter ~ AGW Post by Greens_Win on May 14th, 2012 at 7:52am
Extreme heat, floods likely as weather evolves
EXTREME weather events in 2009 and March this year provided the people of NSW with an indication of what the state is increasingly likely to face as the climate changes, a report by the federal government's Climate Commission says. The year 2009 was the hottest year on record in NSW and a rise in the number of similar heatwave events is predicted. The number of days reaching more than 35 degrees in Sydney is expected to triple by 2070. Climate change ''cannot be ruled out'' as a factor in recent heavy rainfalls, such as the flash flooding in Sydney on March 8, the wettest March day for more than 25 years, the report says. Advertisement: Story continues below The state, on average, is expected to become drier, increasing the risk of longer, harsher droughts and of bushfires, but the intensity of downpours could also increase in a hotter climate, due to warmer ocean temperatures. The report, The Critical Decade, NSW Climate Impacts and Opportunities, is released today. At a public forum at Parramatta Town Hall tomorrow night the public can question members of the commission, which is an independent panel of climate scientists and policy and business leaders. The chief commissioner, Tim Flannery, said NSW was highly vulnerable to climate change. ''Changes in Sydney's climate will have far-reaching implications for health, agriculture, tourism, water security and biodiversity,'' said Professor Flannery, who will attend the forum. But the state also had the opportunity to benefit from a boom in clean energy, he said. NSW is a world leader in research on solar photovoltaics and has produced the heads of four of the six top global manufacturers of this technology, including Shi Zhengrong, the chief executive of the world's largest solar company, Suntech. The report says an estimated $20 billion would be invested in solar power in Australia by 2020 and NSW was ''well placed'' to capitalise on this. ''Even if solar panels are imported from overseas, around 30 to 40 per cent of panel installation costs will go to local installers,'' it says. The climate commissioners Will Steffen and Lesley Hughes, who will also attend the forum, said a shift to cleaner energy sources was needed to help minimise climate change risks. ''This is the critical decade for action. The longer we wait, the more difficult and costly it will be,'' Professor Steffen, of the Australian National University, and Professor Hughes, of Macquarie University, conclude in their report summary. They say the coastal areas of NSW face significant risks from sea level rises. ''A 1.1-metre rise by the end of the century could put between 40,000 to 60,000 houses, 1200 commercial buildings and 250 kilometres of highway in NSW at risk of inundation.'' With a sea level rise of 0.5 metres, storm surge flooding in Sydney that is now considered a one-in-100-year event could occur every few months. http://www.smh.com.au/environment/water-issues/extreme-heat-floods-likely-as-weather-evolves-20120513-1yl1y.html |
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Title: Re: NSW Getting Hotter ~ AGW Post by Doctor Jolly on May 14th, 2012 at 12:05pm
See the very disgraceful reporting of this in today's Daily Telepgraph.
Once again they turn it into their personal crusade against Flannery. Shooting the man is easier than the message. Appalling journalism. |
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Title: Re: NSW Getting Hotter ~ AGW Post by Uncle Meat on May 14th, 2012 at 12:06pm ____ wrote on May 14th, 2012 at 7:52am:
True: climate change "cannot be ruled out". In fact, I'm not aware of anyone who says otherwise. Human involvement, however ... that's a whole different story. |
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Title: Re: NSW Getting Hotter ~ AGW Post by Doctor Jolly on May 14th, 2012 at 12:14pm Uncle Meat wrote on May 14th, 2012 at 12:06pm:
Of all the questions in this area like, is climate change happening, or how fast is it happening, that may be slightly difficult to quantify, the question of whether man is responsible is a no brainer. Where do you think all these millions of tonnes of c02 we are digging up out of the ground is going ? ::) |
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Title: Re: NSW Getting Hotter ~ AGW Post by Doctor Jolly on May 14th, 2012 at 12:19pm
People seem to fall into three camps:
1) Climate change is crap. Dont believe the climate is changing at all. They take evidence is when they look out the window, the weather seems like any other winters day. End of story. 2) The climate is changing but not by man. The most untenable position. They see the world wide measurements and realise that the climate is changing, but rather than admit we can do something about it (vested interest, political views, or pure laziness), try to blame-shift away from man. Fact. Climate is warming. Fact. Co2 warms the climate. Fact. We are releasing millions of tonnes of previously stored co2. 3) Climate change is real, and man is a significant contributor. If you possess a brain where logic can override your political views, this is where you are. Once you are in group 3, and everyone will eventually get there, you are then left with 2 options 3a. Do something. price coal, or invest in renewables. 3b. Do nothing. Blame someone else. (chinese, americans, previous generations, etc) I'm 3a all the way baby! |
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Title: Re: NSW Getting Hotter ~ AGW Post by Uncle Meat on May 14th, 2012 at 12:41pm Doctor Jolly wrote on May 14th, 2012 at 12:14pm:
Only to the closed-minded AGW disciples. Open-minded sceptics, however, are willing to consider all possibilities. So, while the AGW disciples dogmatically follow their religion, the sceptics will continue to look at the science. (hmmm, "no brainer" seems appropriate) :-/ |
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Title: Re: NSW Getting Hotter ~ AGW Post by Doctor Jolly on May 14th, 2012 at 12:43pm Uncle Meat wrote on May 14th, 2012 at 12:41pm:
You have no other possibilities. You just hope there is one. You dont know what it is, but you hope it exists. Untenable position. |
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Title: Re: NSW Getting Hotter ~ AGW Post by Uncle Meat on May 14th, 2012 at 12:50pm Doctor Jolly wrote on May 14th, 2012 at 12:43pm:
Ah, this is a perfect example of the closed-minded AGW disciples. Quite frankly, unbelievable: hard to imagine how an educated person can ignore science in order to push their political agenda. ::) |
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Title: Re: NSW Getting Hotter ~ AGW Post by Spot of Borg on May 14th, 2012 at 1:04pm
Perhaps Rupert Murdoch caused global warming. He was apparently behind the QLD floods.
SOB PS for the idiot that take me seriously this is a joke - although the link is real |
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Title: Re: NSW Getting Hotter ~ AGW Post by Doctor Jolly on May 14th, 2012 at 1:18pm Uncle Meat wrote on May 14th, 2012 at 12:50pm:
What are they then ? Aliens ? ;D |
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Title: Re: NSW Getting Hotter ~ AGW Post by Uncle Meat on May 14th, 2012 at 1:24pm Doctor Jolly wrote on May 14th, 2012 at 1:18pm:
Yep, that's about the level of ignorance I expected. Unvbelievable. ::) |
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Title: Re: NSW Getting Hotter ~ AGW Post by Uncle Meat on May 14th, 2012 at 1:39pm
Just to recap on the AGW "science":
" ... no other possibilities." "Aliens ?" Disturbing, to say the least. |
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Title: Re: NSW Getting Hotter ~ AGW Post by Doctor Jolly on May 14th, 2012 at 1:58pm
Option (2) of my categorizations is really a trap for right wingers trying to have a bit each way.
Some fall into it easy. Some need to be coaxed. ;D |
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Title: Re: NSW Getting Hotter ~ AGW Post by muso on May 14th, 2012 at 3:53pm Doctor Jolly wrote on May 14th, 2012 at 12:19pm:
Some people fall into Camps 1,2 and 3b in the space of a few posts. It depends on where they cut and paste from. |
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Title: Re: NSW Getting Hotter ~ AGW Post by Uncle Meat on May 14th, 2012 at 3:58pm muso wrote on May 14th, 2012 at 3:53pm:
I've never met anyone in Camp 1. I'm not so sure they exist. |
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Title: Re: NSW Getting Hotter ~ AGW Post by muso on May 14th, 2012 at 4:00pm Uncle Meat wrote on May 14th, 2012 at 1:39pm:
Well, now's your chance. The issue is the projected climate change as opposed to what we've experienced up to now of course, and that is projected on the basis of different emission scenarios. This is your opportunity to correct our alleged misconceptions with regards to atmospheric physics. Don't waste it. |
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Title: Re: NSW Getting Hotter ~ AGW Post by muso on May 14th, 2012 at 4:04pm Uncle Meat wrote on May 14th, 2012 at 3:58pm:
You mean those who claim that the world stopped warming in 1998? They exist. They just keep changing their minds. |
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Title: Re: NSW Getting Hotter ~ AGW Post by Doctor Jolly on May 14th, 2012 at 4:42pm muso wrote on May 14th, 2012 at 3:53pm:
I think Tony Abbott has been in all 4 camps. He's been overhead saying "climate change is crap", so camp 1. I can recall him claiming to be in camp 2 (probably his favoured camp, and the official line of republicans) His direct action policy must reside in Camp 3a. But his approach to not do anything unless the US and China does something implies Camp 3b. Weathervane. |
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Title: Re: NSW Getting Hotter ~ AGW Post by Uncle Meat on May 14th, 2012 at 6:53pm muso wrote on May 14th, 2012 at 4:04pm:
Camp 1 says climate change, not warming. I haven't met anyone who doesn't believe in climate change. |
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Title: Re: NSW Getting Hotter ~ AGW Post by muso on May 14th, 2012 at 8:43pm Uncle Meat wrote on May 14th, 2012 at 6:53pm:
I'd say that the intent of Camp 1 is to claim that some people don't believe that there is any evidence of systematic changes to the climate that are beyond normal natural variation. It's just a shortened form of that. Camp 2 is claiming that there is evidence, but that it's due to other indeterminate natural causes, (without actually suggesting what those causes might be) Going back to the original post, it's not actually claiming that the hot conditions in those two years were caused by AGW. It's just saying that it gives us a preview of what's to come. I don't disagree with the original article. It's not claiming a definitive cause of the extreme weather events, which is fair enough. I'd add another subcategory 3c - They believe that it's due to fossil fuel burning and other generally accepted causes, but they claim that it will be entirely beneficial and take the do nothing option. |
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Title: Re: NSW Getting Hotter ~ AGW Post by MOTR on May 15th, 2012 at 3:37am Uncle Meat wrote on May 14th, 2012 at 12:41pm:
You seem to be able to accept any other possibility other than the most likely possibility. That doesn't make you a skeptic. |
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Title: Re: NSW Getting Hotter ~ AGW Post by Doctor Jolly on May 15th, 2012 at 9:22am muso wrote on May 14th, 2012 at 8:43pm:
I cant believe there is anyone in camp 3c. Surely not ? |
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Title: Re: NSW Getting Hotter ~ AGW Post by Uncle Meat on May 15th, 2012 at 9:57am MOTR wrote on May 15th, 2012 at 3:37am:
Incorrect. I've stated on many occasions that I may eventually change my mind and accept the AGW hypothesis. However, until such time as credible, reliable evidence is presented I do not subscribe to the man-made possibility. I remain sceptical, yet open-minded. |
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Title: Re: NSW Getting Hotter ~ AGW Post by Doctor Jolly on May 15th, 2012 at 9:59am Uncle Meat wrote on May 15th, 2012 at 9:57am:
So are you saying, you just dont know why the climate is changing ? |
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Title: Re: NSW Getting Hotter ~ AGW Post by Uncle Meat on May 15th, 2012 at 10:12am Doctor Jolly wrote on May 15th, 2012 at 9:59am:
I'm not 100% committed to any one hypothesis. I remain open-minded. That's what science is about. So far, there is not enough credible, reliable evidence to support the AGW hypothesis. |
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Title: Re: NSW Getting Hotter ~ AGW Post by Doctor Jolly on May 15th, 2012 at 11:15am Uncle Meat wrote on May 15th, 2012 at 10:12am:
Yes there is. Its really quite simple. Follow these questions and we'll see where you are diverging off mainstream science. Q1. The Thermal properties of co2 act as a green house gas in our atmosphere making the planet warmer than it normally would be? True or False ? Q2. Humans are releasing large amounts of co2 into the atmosphere that was previously stored underground (in fossil fuels). True or false ? Q3. The earth is a closed system. The Co2 being released has to go somewhere. Some is being absorbed by the ocean (acidifying it, which scientific data is reinforcing), some is staying in the atmosphere (as scientific data is reinforcing). True or false ? Q4. More co2 in the atmosphere, means more molecules doing there greenhouse actions. True or false ? Q5. Answers to true in q1 to q4 mean the world is warming due to mans activities. yes ? |
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Title: Re: NSW Getting Hotter ~ AGW Post by Uncle Meat on May 15th, 2012 at 11:21am Doctor Jolly wrote on May 15th, 2012 at 11:15am:
No, there isn't. AGW is merely the currently accepted hypothesis. Hypothesis. |
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Title: Re: NSW Getting Hotter ~ AGW Post by muso on May 15th, 2012 at 2:28pm
Do you accept the hypothesis that the Earth orbits the Sun?
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Title: Re: NSW Getting Hotter ~ AGW Post by Uncle Meat on May 15th, 2012 at 2:33pm muso wrote on May 15th, 2012 at 2:28pm:
Right on cue! ::) Don't change the subject. Try to stay focused. This thread is about AGW (it's in the thread title, in case you weren't sure). AGW disciples always like to deflect and change the subject when their argument is going nowhere. Once that happens, their credibility goes out the window. So, AGW is merely the currently accepted hypothesis: you need to accept this fact. |
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Title: Re: NSW Getting Hotter ~ AGW Post by muso on May 15th, 2012 at 3:54pm Uncle Meat wrote on May 15th, 2012 at 2:33pm:
Well it's a relevant question. You stated that it was a hypothesis. I'm exploring the concept of hypotheses. So Yes or No? (If I told you that it was a null hypothesis, would you change your mind?) |
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Title: Re: NSW Getting Hotter ~ AGW Post by Uncle Meat on May 15th, 2012 at 5:04pm muso wrote on May 15th, 2012 at 3:54pm:
You're attempting to deflect by wasting time with semantics. No surprise there. That's how the AGW disciples operate. What you're doing is nothing new. It is quite transparent though. You need to concern yourself more with science, and less with semantics. While you remain closed-minded to other possibilities, you're operating outside the realm of science. This thread is about AGW and science, not semantics or other hypotheses. Stay focused. |
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Title: Re: NSW Getting Hotter ~ AGW Post by muso on May 15th, 2012 at 6:54pm
OK, well you insist on using this terminology, so let's take it further.
No astronomical body orbits another astronomical body. They orbit around a common centre of gravity, although strictly speaking, the Earth follows a geodesic line within curved space. Whichever way you look at it, the statement that the Earth orbits the Sun is a null hypothesis. But as far as the question of whether CO2 causes warming, that is a type of hypothesis known as a residual hypothesis. A residual hypothesis results when all other alternative hypotheses tested against it fails to achieve a predetermined significance level. For a start, it's an effect that can be measured directly. If you want it in layman's language, it's patently obvious. fabric_of_space_warp.jpg (211 KB | 59
) |
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Title: Re: NSW Getting Hotter ~ AGW Post by Deathridesahorse on May 25th, 2012 at 5:03pm
Ah, SO YOU'RE SAYING THE EARTH DOESN'T ORBIT THE SUN IT ORBITS A SYSTEM CENTRE!
Lol, I was blind but now I see! Thanks muso!! ;) ;) ...this is the line of reasoning that got Pluto kicked from the status of 'a planet', yes??? ::) ::) |
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Title: Re: NSW Getting Hotter ~ AGW Post by Aussie 0zborn on Jul 10th, 2012 at 1:06am Doctor Jolly wrote on May 14th, 2012 at 12:05pm:
The man has probably allowed himself to be shot down in flames with his inaccurate predictions and scaremongering which is understandable when nothing he has predicted has actually happened. He is not qualified in matters relating to climate change so why would he not be shot down? He lacks any credibility and has personally benefited financially through multi-million dollar grants awarded to his company to draw electricity from rocks in the South Australian desert - a spectacular failure. You might have a good argument but I strongly doubt that relying on Flannery will pull you through it. |
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Title: Re: NSW Getting Hotter ~ AGW Post by progressiveslol on Jul 26th, 2012 at 9:05pm
quick, bend over and take it like a nice green follower. You can then get beaten over the head with some good old fashion scaremongering. If you are not 100% under the greens control by then, you will get a browbeating like deadhorse knows.
Flannery is the best economist who knows little about the economy but is well versed at scaremongering about a science he knows nothing about. Good on ya flannery for continuing to wreck a science. Right up their with the climategate mongrels |
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