Interestiing article from Simon Benson. I doubt there is anyone out there who honestly believes deep in their heart that Labor can possibly win the next election...


IF it hasn’t already become so, the Australian Labor Party will soon become completely ungovernable.


Julia Gillard’s time as Prime Minister appears to be coming to an end. But no one inside the parliamentary party, or its executive branches, knows what to do about it.

This week the NSW party secretary Sam Dastyari publicly said he thought MPs should get behind Gillard.

It was a forlorn and unbelievable display of solidarity. Privately, the party boss is telling his NSW federal MPs that it is up to them what they do. The Labor party machine won’t get involved.

Dastyari has learned from bitter experience. When he began making calls earlier this year to his MPs to shore up support for Gillard in the face of the imminent challenge from Kevin Rudd, many of them told him to get stuffed.

He has also learned from his predecessors and their interference in the running of the previous NSW Labor government, when the party machine decided it was its job to dictate who was and who wasn’t going to be leader.

Dastyari’s position marks a significant change in the perceived power structures of the Labor machine and its relationship to the parliamentary wing.

If indeed he does intend to stay out of any moves against Gillard, then it truly will be up to the caucus to decide Gillard’s fate.

The problem with this scenario, to use a phrase once coined by Joe Tripodi, is that you get a situation akin to “herding cats”.

Perversely, this could work in Gillard’s favour. With no one inside the caucus yet bold enough to take on the task of herding the cats and tapping Gillard on the shoulder to resign, the PM will remain safe.

There will not be another spill or challenge from Rudd. He will only take the job by acclamation. It’s unlikely she will move aside.

Until some genius in the party works out how to get around this issue, it will be a stalemate.

The caveat, considering the level of angst within the caucus, is that the situation could become so volatile that no one will be able to stop it all falling over.

Despite public protests to the contrary, MPs are fixated on the fortnightly polls which show Labor on a hiding to electoral misery.

The number they fear is the primary vote. This week it is down to around 27 per cent, which means a large majority of those MPs would lose their jobs at an election.

But it’s likely the primary vote number will move between 27 and 33 per cent for the next 12 months, as it has for the past 12 months.

MPs have every right to be concerned about this and demand answers from their leader, as well as the factional bosses who now move sheepishly around parliament wondering how they justify their support for the PM.

But they are looking at the wrong numbers if they think shelving Gillard will solve all their problems. The number they should be considering in any consideration of removing Gillard is her dissatisfaction rate - now around 60 per cent.

This is the key number in terms of her survivability. At this level any leader is terminal and unlikely to ever improve.

On that assumption alone the caucus would ordinarily be looking to change leaders. That was the number Morris Iemma was on when he was dumped, despite a primary vote for the party of around 34 per cent.

But fixing one problem doesn’t necessarily solve the other. If they believe that, by dumping Gillard, the primary vote will miraculously rise to a respectable 36 per cent plus, they are kidding themselves. And there is a risk it won’t.

This primary vote is not singularly linked to Gillard. It is a reflection of Labor’s brand more generally and a reflection of the unpopularity of Labor policy - in this case the carbon tax.

Unless the carbon price is modified - and it clearly can’t be Gillard who does it - Labor’s electoral prospects are unlikely to improve. They will just continue to get worse. And the same fundamental problem will continue to exist. Labor will be smashed at an election.

This polling theory is also reflected, inversely, in the Coalition. Its primary vote is sky high because Tony Abbott stands to ditch all of Labor’s bad policies - not because people like Abbott.

Abbott’s dissatisfaction rating is almost as bad as Gillard’s, at around 40 per cent.

What this suggests is there is no longer a presidential element to the battle of national politics.

Most voters dislike both leaders.

And therefore it is unlikely that any leader Labor decides to go to the next election with - whether it be Gillard, Rudd, Shorten, Smith, Combet or Crean - will have any ability to do more than save a bit of furniture.

Dastyari and others are well aware that there is no longer a hope of retaining Labor in government. The party machine in NSW is already thinking of how it rebuilds in opposition.

And it is not merely interested in saving “furniture”. It is looking specifically at which furniture to save and who will be sitting in it.

In other words, which MPs does it want to keep around in opposition to give it the best chance of rebuilding. There is little point in saving a bunch of dud MPs just to have numbers on the floor.

It would have been unthinkable a decade ago that Labor would be at risk of losing Labor stronghold seats in southwest Sydney like Watson and McMahon.

But The Daily Telegraph has learned that Dastyari is already drawing up battle plans to save these two seats - both on around 10 per cent margins - and the MPs who hold them: ministers Chris Bowen and Tony Burke.

Like the desert bunker in the Arizona desert designed to protect the President and senior members of his administration in the threat of nuclear war so they have a group of people left capable of governing, NSW Labor is already building its own bunker and drawing up plans to save its future leadership team.

Then hard righters, put all your wealth into an abbott bet.

If you haven't realised yet, we are setting you all up for an epic fall.

Come in spinner.

This week the NSW party secretary Sam Dastyari publicly said he thought MPs should get behind Gillard.




is he admitting the faithful have all lost faith?

and yet we are expected to think this is workable.

every tom Dick and Harry wannabe journalist wants to put their name to a prediction they all think is inevitable .... why don't they try real journalism, and dig out some liberal policies ... If I want to know who will win the next election I'll go and see a fortune teller.

____ wrote on May 4^th, 2012 at 9:51am:

Then hard righters, put all your wealth into an abbott bet. If you haven't realised yet, we are setting you all up for an epic fall. Come in spinner.

I think its your lot that will have the fall... we hold you responsible for half this mess we are in..

and I would think an awful lot of labor voters blame the greens for everything

you really do believe you can escape all this dont you? ;D ;D ;D

I don't think anyone is even disputing the election result coming up anymore.

It was expected in NSW and happened.
It was expected in QLD and happened.

It's expected federally - its a brave man, or an absolute idiot, who would say it won't happen.

Thing is, Tony Abbott hasn't actually needed to do anything for it either.
This Government have committed political suicide right in front of our eyes - they alone are responsible for their utter appalling popularity.

Andrei.Hicks wrote on May 4^th, 2012 at 9:55am:

I don't think anyone is even disputing the election result coming up anymore. It was expected in NSW and happened. It was expected in QLD and happened. It's expected federally - its a brave man, or an absolute idiot, who would say it won't happen. Thing is, Tony Abbott hasn't actually needed to do anything for it either. This Government have committed political suicide right in front of our eyes - they alone are responsible for their utter appalling popularity.

The interesting thing about polling for Abbott and Gillard is that both aren't that popular with voters. Gillard's problem is obvious - she's a liar and is just plain bad at the job. Abbott has a different problem entirely - he's spent much of his time criticising the government when they get it wrong. I think that when an election is announced and the Coalition start releasing their policies, the electorate will finally see a viable alternative in Abbott rather than someone who will just undo what Labor has done wrong.

cods wrote on May 4^th, 2012 at 9:54am:

____ wrote on May 4th, 2012 at 9:51am: Then hard righters, put all your wealth into an abbott bet. If you haven't realised yet, we are setting you all up for an epic fall. Come in spinner. I think its your lot that will have the fall... we hold you responsible for half this mess we are in.. and I would think an awful lot of labor voters blame the greens for everything you really do believe you can escape all this dont you? ;D ;D ;D

Just remember to Credit the Greens when the economy is in recession and Abbott can't finance his $70,000,000,000 black hole.


Just remember we warned you old parties about this race to the bottom you guys are in.

Abbott can't sack and save if everything is cut to the bone already.


Come in Hard Right Mugs.


Place your bets on Abbott's Epic Fall.

Andrei.Hicks wrote on May 4^th, 2012 at 9:55am:

I don't think anyone is even disputing the election result coming up anymore. It was expected in NSW and happened. It was expected in QLD and happened. It's expected federally - its a brave man, or an absolute idiot, who would say it won't happen. Thing is, Tony Abbott hasn't actually needed to do anything for it either. This Government have committed political suicide right in front of our eyes - they alone are responsible for their utter appalling popularity.

I dispute the claim that Abbott is a certainty winner at the next federal election.

I reckon black hole Abbott will be replaced shortly after Gillard this year.

Milne V Rudd V Turnbull election ahead.

The Greens -

1) Want to reduce coal exports for Australia - despite it being very profitable

2) Want to remove fringe benefits tax offsets and increase the tax brackets which will cost millions of families thousands of dollars

3) Would reduce Australia's ability to defend itself

4) Would cost thousands of jobs in minerals and resources.

5) Would dole out free healthcare to people and yet force those of us in private to pay even more to pay for it

Outright, card carrying nutbags.
Fortunately now they have a nobody in charge, they will disappear back to the forests.

____ wrote on May 4^th, 2012 at 10:05am:

Andrei.Hicks wrote on May 4th, 2012 at 9:55am: I don't think anyone is even disputing the election result coming up anymore. It was expected in NSW and happened. It was expected in QLD and happened. It's expected federally - its a brave man, or an absolute idiot, who would say it won't happen. Thing is, Tony Abbott hasn't actually needed to do anything for it either. This Government have committed political suicide right in front of our eyes - they alone are responsible for their utter appalling popularity. I dispute the claim that Abbott is a certainty winner at the next federal election. I reckon black hole Abbott will be replaced shortly after Gillard this year. Milne V Rudd V Turnbull election ahead.

Milne with her 1 MP.
You can't even place that idiot in the same bracket.

You don't class a party of 1 MP as "in the running".

Andrei.Hicks wrote on May 4^th, 2012 at 10:07am:

____ wrote on May 4th, 2012 at 10:05am: Andrei.Hicks wrote on May 4th, 2012 at 9:55am: I don't think anyone is even disputing the election result coming up anymore. It was expected in NSW and happened. It was expected in QLD and happened. It's expected federally - its a brave man, or an absolute idiot, who would say it won't happen. Thing is, Tony Abbott hasn't actually needed to do anything for it either. This Government have committed political suicide right in front of our eyes - they alone are responsible for their utter appalling popularity. I dispute the claim that Abbott is a certainty winner at the next federal election. I reckon black hole Abbott will be replaced shortly after Gillard this year. Milne V Rudd V Turnbull election ahead. Milne with her 1 MP. You can't even place that idiot in the same bracket. You don't class a party of 1 MP as "in the running".

One at the last election yet Abbott and Gillard are on the verge of an epic fall. Greens will stand up to fill the power vacuum that will follow.

Abbott is unable to get support even when Gillard is leading Labor. Abbott is G O N E once Labor moves on Gillard.


G O N E

Like they did in Queensland?

Or in NSW?

They also took 20 years to get 1 MP Federally.

Yep Greens landslide coming up.
Have you ever wondered why they don't even look like getting mainstream support like mine?

Have a look in the mirror my friend, there is your answer.

Andrei.Hicks wrote on May 4^th, 2012 at 10:07am:

The Greens - 1) Want to reduce coal exports for Australia - despite it being very profitable So is producing Heroin,and Land Mines. Will the Right allow any and all profitable businesses? 2) Want to remove fringe benefits tax offsets and increase the tax brackets which will cost millions of families thousands of dollars http://www.theaustralian.com.au/national-affairs/greens-pressure-federal-government-for-fringe-benefits-tax-reform/story-fn59niix-1226046289612 THE Gillard government is under pressure from its minority government partner, the Greens, to remove a fringe benefits tax exemption that rewards employees the more they drive. Greens deputy leader Christine Milne said the government would save $1 billion in next month's budget if it imposed a flat rate FBT exemption, rather than linking the concession to kilometres travelled. Seizing on International Energy Agency warnings that oil prices would soar 30 per cent over the next three years, Senator Milne said the current rules encouraged a wasteful use of resources. "In a tight budget where the government is looking to make big cuts, the expensive and perverse subsidies that encourage the use of oil should be top of the list to be scrapped," she said. "Treasury costings show almost $1 billion in revenue could be restored over the forward estimates if the Australian Greens' proposal ... is adopted in next month's budget." She also called for greater investment in public transport, cycle paths and tougher fuel efficiency standards for cars. IEA economist, Dr Birol, told the ABC today the age of cheap oil was over. "The amount of increase in the oil input bill in Europe is equal to the government budget deficit of Greece plus Portugal put together," he said. "If it increases further ... we believe (it) will increase at least 20, 30 per cent higher in the next few years to come and this would mean additional pressure on the financing of many governments who are the oil importers." Dr Birol said crude oil production peaked in 2006 and existing fields were declining so rapidly that to keep up production levels in 25 years would require the development of four new Saudi Arabia's. 3) Would reduce Australia's ability to defend itself By invading countries on the other side of the globe and run down the defence force. Oh hang on, that is the old parties doing this. 4) Would cost thousands of jobs in minerals and resources. Australia: Coal mining investment increases 62%, despite carbon tax concerns http://www.climateconnect.com.au/articles/australia-coal-mining-investment-increases-62-despite-carbon-tax-concerns/ 5) Would dole out free healthcare to people and yet force those of us in private to pay even more to pay for it Where is your violin while telling your story of woe. Outright, card carrying nutbags. Fortunately now they have a nobody in charge, they will disappear back to the forests. Opinion based on .... extreme right views = predictions based on extreme right views.

Andrei.Hicks wrote on May 4^th, 2012 at 9:55am:

I don't think anyone is even disputing the election result coming up anymore. It was expected in NSW and happened. It was expected in QLD and happened. It's expected federally - its a brave man, or an absolute idiot, who would say it won't happen. Thing is, Tony Abbott hasn't actually needed to do anything for it either. This Government have committed political suicide right in front of our eyes - they alone are responsible for their utter appalling popularity.

It happened ..... eventually ... The ALP was predicted to loose both these states at the last 3 elections , and only lost the last one.... when will the libs learn, no matter what the polling, if you don't present an  alternative, you won't win , just telling everyone how crap the opposition is isn't going to win you an election... did they learn nothing from 20 yrs in exile in state politics?

I wasn't talking about the win predicted, I was talking about the fact people were predicting a slaughtering.

A lot (myself included) were suspicious it could end up that bad but it did.
Labor lost party status in QLD and only kept it because of the good grace of their opponents.
They can't even raise a cricket team with their MP numbers now.

So people who say "It won't be as bad", said that for NSW and QLD and look what happened.

Like I said, Tony Abbott has not actually needed to really do anything.
This is all self inflicted.

Andrei.Hicks wrote on May 4^th, 2012 at 10:40am:

I wasn't talking about the win predicted, I was talking about the fact people were predicting a slaughtering. A lot (myself included) were suspicious it could end up that bad but it did. Labor lost party status in QLD and only kept it because of the good grace of their opponents. They can't even raise a cricket team with their MP numbers now. So people who say "It won't be as bad", said that for NSW and QLD and look what happened. Like I said, Tony Abbott has not actually needed to really do anything. This is all self inflicted.

And this will be the hard right's undoing.


The Liberals have no mandate

The Liberal do not deserve control of both houses so to push through work choices and nuclear reactors in everyone's backyard and lifting the age for age pensions etc etc

Like I said woody - I grew up and within a 50 mile radius there were -

Hinckley Point
Berkeley
Oldland

All producing low emissions power for the region.
Tell me what was wrong with that?
I would have thought you would like the fact we had reactors proving our energy with little damage to the air?

Andrei.Hicks wrote on May 4^th, 2012 at 10:07am:

The Greens - 1) Want to reduce coal exports for Australia - despite it being very profitable

Is that true.  Because, as you are well aware I'm sure, a lot of green initiatives in NSW alone could be acheived by reducing the tax payer subsidies to coal power generation (leaving export alone).

For example, coal gets (or was getting a year back) around $120 / tonne export.   Our NSW government however is subsidising coal to our power generators by as much as $80 / tonne. Meaning they only pay $30/ tonne.    This has the impact that the NSW government (who owns the mine providing the coal to these power stations) is losing $80/tonne it produces, or $4b over an extended period. $4b that could build roads, hospitals, 2nd airport, etc, etc.

It also means coal powered power stations are subsidised more any any renewable or nuclear. These alternate power supplies will never get a chance to be cost competitive, no matter how high the carbon tax is.

I'm happy for NSW to subsides power costs, but not to pick which form of generation to subsidise. That flies in the face of all market-driven economic models.  Remove subsidies for coal, sell at the market rate, and subsidize people at the electrical consumer end of the chain. Then let the way that electicity is generated be driven by the market.

____ wrote on May 4^th, 2012 at 10:46am:

And this will be the hard right's undoing. The Liberals have no mandate The Liberal do not deserve control of both houses so to push through work choices and nuclear reactors in everyone's backyard and lifting the age for age pensions etc etc

Exactly. Lieberals have no policy, no idea. Their leader is a wrecking ball without a brain. All the attributes of a weather vane without the intelligence of one. Come an election, this will be made clear as day.

That's why Tony needs to go. Only then will we get an effective opposition and, more importantly, a credible alternative government.

Andrei.Hicks wrote on May 4^th, 2012 at 10:49am:

Like I said woody - I grew up and within a 50 mile radius there were - Hinckley Point Berkeley Oldland All producing low emissions power for the region. Tell me what was wrong with that? I would have thought you would like the fact we had reactors proving our energy with little damage to the air?

Cyclical argument. I have shown on other threads that children living near reactors have higher cancer risks.

You continue the same argument in denial.

And I have shown you the studies presented over a 30 year period at Hinckley Point that the cancer rates were no different to anywhere else in the country.

Johnsmith wrote on May 4^th, 2012 at 10:30am:

Andrei.Hicks wrote on May 4th, 2012 at 9:55am: I don't think anyone is even disputing the election result coming up anymore. It was expected in NSW and happened. It was expected in QLD and happened. It's expected federally - its a brave man, or an absolute idiot, who would say it won't happen. Thing is, Tony Abbott hasn't actually needed to do anything for it either. This Government have committed political suicide right in front of our eyes - they alone are responsible for their utter appalling popularity. It happened ..... eventually ... The ALP was predicted to loose both these states at the last 3 elections , and only lost the last one.... when will the libs learn, no matter what the polling, if you don't present an  alternative, you won't win , just telling everyone how crap the opposition is isn't going to win you an election... did they learn nothing from 20 yrs in exile in state politics?

ah... the words of an idiot in denial.

longweekend58 wrote on May 4^th, 2012 at 5:11pm:

ah... the words of an idiot in denial.

Seems to be the case, yes.

Gist wrote on May 4^th, 2012 at 5:33pm:

longweekend58 wrote on May 4th, 2012 at 5:11pm: ah... the words of an idiot in denial. Seems to be the case, yes.

NO ONE believes labor can win the next election other than fools. they are too far behind. An election today could deliver a 90-100 seat majority for Abbott. with a massive turnaround labor might drop it to 40.

Big deal.

longweekend58 wrote on May 4^th, 2012 at 5:38pm:

NO ONE believes labor can win the next election other than fools. they are too far behind. An election today could deliver a 90-100 seat majority for Abbott. with a massive turnaround labor might drop it to 40. Big deal.

Maybe yes, maybe no. Thing is there won't be an election today. Or tomorrow. Or June! And only a moron would predict what the election result will be in 18 months time.

longweekend58 wrote on May 4^th, 2012 at 5:38pm:

Gist wrote on May 4th, 2012 at 5:33pm: longweekend58 wrote on May 4th, 2012 at 5:11pm: ah... the words of an idiot in denial. Seems to be the case, yes. NO ONE believes labor can win the next election other than fools. they are too far behind. An election today could deliver a 90-100 seat majority for Abbott. with a massive turnaround labor might drop it to 40. Big deal.

I cant see them getting the faithful back between now and the election.. which isnt a good thing I dont think..got to give Abbott his due he has been very strong in his criticism of the govt, they have just got so much wrong.

if the Principal of the Local High School was acting like this.. the parents would be up in arms.. yet here we are having to put up with this shambles.

she went to the footy.she was on Celebrity Apprentice.. she was on Junior Masterchef..

sorry but when is she appearing on "Lets make a Deal"??.. she should win that one.

Gist wrote on May 4^th, 2012 at 5:45pm:

longweekend58 wrote on May 4th, 2012 at 5:38pm: NO ONE believes labor can win the next election other than fools. they are too far behind. An election today could deliver a 90-100 seat majority for Abbott. with a massive turnaround labor might drop it to 40. Big deal. Maybe yes, maybe no. Thing is there won't be an election today. Or tomorrow. Or June! And only a moron would predict what the election result will be in 18 months time.

a govt that currently sits on a majority of arguably ZERO (Wilkie voting with Abbott) i hardly they type of govt that can be asured of continuing in power. Already today there has been Oakeshoot saying that if Gillard is removed all bets are off. (Is he in love with her or something?)

Funny that for how bad the coalition is the alp not only let's them get away with it they are handing the coalition the next election.

longweekend58 wrote on May 4^th, 2012 at 5:53pm:

a govt that currently sits on a majority of arguably ZERO (Wilkie voting with Abbott) i hardly they type of govt that can be asured of continuing in power. Already today there has been Oakeshoot saying that if Gillard is removed all bets are off. (Is he in love with her or something?)

blah blah blah

You've been making the same dire prediction for 18 months now. That's 18 months of WRONG! They weren't going to last 3 months 18 months ago. What happened???

I guess we'll have to put up with it for another 18.  ::)

Gist wrote on May 4^th, 2012 at 6:41pm:

longweekend58 wrote on May 4th, 2012 at 5:53pm: a govt that currently sits on a majority of arguably ZERO (Wilkie voting with Abbott) i hardly they type of govt that can be asured of continuing in power. Already today there has been Oakeshoot saying that if Gillard is removed all bets are off. (Is he in love with her or something?) blah blah blah You've been making the same dire prediction for 18 months now. That's 18 months of WRONG! They weren't going to last 3 months 18 months ago. What happened??? I guess we'll have to put up with it for another 18.  ::)

I'll worry about who's gonna win the next election sometime in October 2013...until then its just wasted energy

adelcrow wrote on May 4^th, 2012 at 6:43pm:

Gist wrote on May 4th, 2012 at 6:41pm: longweekend58 wrote on May 4th, 2012 at 5:53pm: a govt that currently sits on a majority of arguably ZERO (Wilkie voting with Abbott) i hardly they type of govt that can be asured of continuing in power. Already today there has been Oakeshoot saying that if Gillard is removed all bets are off. (Is he in love with her or something?) blah blah blah You've been making the same dire prediction for 18 months now. That's 18 months of WRONG! They weren't going to last 3 months 18 months ago. What happened??? I guess we'll have to put up with it for another 18.  ::) I'll worry about who's gonna win the next election sometime in October 2013...until then its just wasted energy

the smell of desperation...

can smell it from here.

longweekend58 wrote on May 5^th, 2012 at 5:26pm:

adelcrow wrote on May 4th, 2012 at 6:43pm: Gist wrote on May 4th, 2012 at 6:41pm: longweekend58 wrote on May 4th, 2012 at 5:53pm: a govt that currently sits on a majority of arguably ZERO (Wilkie voting with Abbott) i hardly they type of govt that can be asured of continuing in power. Already today there has been Oakeshoot saying that if Gillard is removed all bets are off. (Is he in love with her or something?) blah blah blah You've been making the same dire prediction for 18 months now. That's 18 months of WRONG! They weren't going to last 3 months 18 months ago. What happened??? I guess we'll have to put up with it for another 18.  ::) I'll worry about who's gonna win the next election sometime in October 2013...until then its just wasted energy the smell of desperation... can smell it from here.

Yep..like Abbott Im desperate for an election every 2 minutes

adelcrow wrote on May 5^th, 2012 at 5:28pm:

longweekend58 wrote on May 5th, 2012 at 5:26pm: adelcrow wrote on May 4th, 2012 at 6:43pm: Gist wrote on May 4th, 2012 at 6:41pm: longweekend58 wrote on May 4th, 2012 at 5:53pm: a govt that currently sits on a majority of arguably ZERO (Wilkie voting with Abbott) i hardly they type of govt that can be asured of continuing in power. Already today there has been Oakeshoot saying that if Gillard is removed all bets are off. (Is he in love with her or something?) blah blah blah You've been making the same dire prediction for 18 months now. That's 18 months of WRONG! They weren't going to last 3 months 18 months ago. What happened??? I guess we'll have to put up with it for another 18.  ::) I'll worry about who's gonna win the next election sometime in October 2013...until then its just wasted energy the smell of desperation... can smell it from here. Yep..like Abbott Im desperate for an election every 2 minutes

actually it is the sound of the VOTERS - an actual majority - shouting for a new election. Not happened since Whitlam's time.

longweekend58 wrote on May 5^th, 2012 at 6:36pm:

adelcrow wrote on May 5th, 2012 at 5:28pm: longweekend58 wrote on May 5th, 2012 at 5:26pm: adelcrow wrote on May 4th, 2012 at 6:43pm: Gist wrote on May 4th, 2012 at 6:41pm: longweekend58 wrote on May 4th, 2012 at 5:53pm: a govt that currently sits on a majority of arguably ZERO (Wilkie voting with Abbott) i hardly they type of govt that can be asured of continuing in power. Already today there has been Oakeshoot saying that if Gillard is removed all bets are off. (Is he in love with her or something?) blah blah blah You've been making the same dire prediction for 18 months now. That's 18 months of WRONG! They weren't going to last 3 months 18 months ago. What happened??? I guess we'll have to put up with it for another 18.  ::) I'll worry about who's gonna win the next election sometime in October 2013...until then its just wasted energy the smell of desperation... can smell it from here. Yep..like Abbott Im desperate for an election every 2 minutes actually it is the sound of the VOTERS - an actual majority - shouting for a new election. Not happened since Whitlam's time.

Ive never met anyone outside of my friends who are members of the Liberal Party who are calling for another election and I'll say the same thing to you as I say to them over a beer or three...wait your turn and stop whinging  ;D

adelcrow wrote on May 5^th, 2012 at 6:40pm:

longweekend58 wrote on May 5th, 2012 at 6:36pm: adelcrow wrote on May 5th, 2012 at 5:28pm: longweekend58 wrote on May 5th, 2012 at 5:26pm: adelcrow wrote on May 4th, 2012 at 6:43pm: Gist wrote on May 4th, 2012 at 6:41pm: longweekend58 wrote on May 4th, 2012 at 5:53pm: a govt that currently sits on a majority of arguably ZERO (Wilkie voting with Abbott) i hardly they type of govt that can be asured of continuing in power. Already today there has been Oakeshoot saying that if Gillard is removed all bets are off. (Is he in love with her or something?) blah blah blah You've been making the same dire prediction for 18 months now. That's 18 months of WRONG! They weren't going to last 3 months 18 months ago. What happened??? I guess we'll have to put up with it for another 18.  ::) I'll worry about who's gonna win the next election sometime in October 2013...until then its just wasted energy the smell of desperation... can smell it from here. Yep..like Abbott Im desperate for an election every 2 minutes actually it is the sound of the VOTERS - an actual majority - shouting for a new election. Not happened since Whitlam's time. Ive never met anyone outside of my friends who are members of the Liberal Party who are calling for another election and I'll say the same thing to you as I say to them over a beer or three...wait your turn and stop whinging  ;D

and that is your argument?? the opinions of a handful of people? Call Galaxy and Newspoll!!! a new polling methodology has evolved... its called 'hold a BBQ and ask the assembled 6 people'

please. I thought you were brighter than that. Galaxys poll has a clear majority of people wanting an early election. The question wasnt if they were one of your friends or not.

longweekend58 wrote on May 5^th, 2012 at 6:58pm:

adelcrow wrote on May 5th, 2012 at 6:40pm: longweekend58 wrote on May 5th, 2012 at 6:36pm: adelcrow wrote on May 5th, 2012 at 5:28pm: longweekend58 wrote on May 5th, 2012 at 5:26pm: adelcrow wrote on May 4th, 2012 at 6:43pm: Gist wrote on May 4th, 2012 at 6:41pm: longweekend58 wrote on May 4th, 2012 at 5:53pm: a govt that currently sits on a majority of arguably ZERO (Wilkie voting with Abbott) i hardly they type of govt that can be asured of continuing in power. Already today there has been Oakeshoot saying that if Gillard is removed all bets are off. (Is he in love with her or something?) blah blah blah You've been making the same dire prediction for 18 months now. That's 18 months of WRONG! They weren't going to last 3 months 18 months ago. What happened??? I guess we'll have to put up with it for another 18.  ::) I'll worry about who's gonna win the next election sometime in October 2013...until then its just wasted energy the smell of desperation... can smell it from here. Yep..like Abbott Im desperate for an election every 2 minutes actually it is the sound of the VOTERS - an actual majority - shouting for a new election. Not happened since Whitlam's time. Ive never met anyone outside of my friends who are members of the Liberal Party who are calling for another election and I'll say the same thing to you as I say to them over a beer or three...wait your turn and stop whinging  ;D and that is your argument?? the opinions of a handful of people? Call Galaxy and Newspoll!!! a new polling methodology has evolved... its called 'hold a BBQ and ask the assembled 6 people' please. I thought you were brighter than that. Galaxys poll has a clear majority of people wanting an early election. The question wasnt if they were one of your friends or not.

Of course people answer pollsters when they pick up the phone and theres some idiot on the other end asking dumb questions.
My point is for the most part people dont give a toss until they have to mark their ballot papers.

longweekend58 wrote on May 5^th, 2012 at 6:36pm:

adelcrow wrote on May 5th, 2012 at 5:28pm: longweekend58 wrote on May 5th, 2012 at 5:26pm: adelcrow wrote on May 4th, 2012 at 6:43pm: Gist wrote on May 4th, 2012 at 6:41pm: longweekend58 wrote on May 4th, 2012 at 5:53pm: a govt that currently sits on a majority of arguably ZERO (Wilkie voting with Abbott) i hardly they type of govt that can be asured of continuing in power. Already today there has been Oakeshoot saying that if Gillard is removed all bets are off. (Is he in love with her or something?) blah blah blah You've been making the same dire prediction for 18 months now. That's 18 months of WRONG! They weren't going to last 3 months 18 months ago. What happened??? I guess we'll have to put up with it for another 18.  ::) I'll worry about who's gonna win the next election sometime in October 2013...until then its just wasted energy the smell of desperation... can smell it from here. Yep..like Abbott Im desperate for an election every 2 minutes actually it is the sound of the VOTERS - an actual majority - shouting for a new election. Not happened since Whitlam's time.

People were queing up for almost 3 years to turf Howard out of his own seat. An election much earlier in 2006 - 2007 was much desired.

adelcrow wrote on May 5^th, 2012 at 6:40pm:

Ive never met anyone outside of my friends who are members of the Liberal Party who are calling for another election and I'll say the same thing to you as I say to them over a beer or three...wait your turn and stop whinging

Even most of the conservative voters I know (not all) concede that the government should be allowed to run its term.

Dnarever wrote on May 5^th, 2012 at 7:15pm:

adelcrow wrote on May 5th, 2012 at 6:40pm: Ive never met anyone outside of my friends who are members of the Liberal Party who are calling for another election and I'll say the same thing to you as I say to them over a beer or three...wait your turn and stop whinging  Even most of the conservative voters I know (not all) concede that the government should be allowed to run its term.

a truly convincing argument. 3 of yoru friends.

and of course the 52% of australians that want one??

of course. Be a good labor supporter and ignore the majority. Thats what labor govts and labor supporters do best.

longweekend58 wrote on May 16^th, 2012 at 7:07pm:

Dnarever wrote on May 5th, 2012 at 7:15pm: adelcrow wrote on May 5th, 2012 at 6:40pm: Ive never met anyone outside of my friends who are members of the Liberal Party who are calling for another election and I'll say the same thing to you as I say to them over a beer or three...wait your turn and stop whinging  Even most of the conservative voters I know (not all) concede that the government should be allowed to run its term. a truly convincing argument. 3 of yoru friends. and of course the 52% of australians that want one?? of course. Be a good labor supporter and ignore the majority. Thats what labor govts and labor supporters do best.

It makes sense to let all oppositions call the timing of elections based on opinion polls and the desperation of the opposition leader to grab power.

adelcrow wrote on May 16^th, 2012 at 7:09pm:

longweekend58 wrote on May 16th, 2012 at 7:07pm: Dnarever wrote on May 5th, 2012 at 7:15pm: adelcrow wrote on May 5th, 2012 at 6:40pm: Ive never met anyone outside of my friends who are members of the Liberal Party who are calling for another election and I'll say the same thing to you as I say to them over a beer or three...wait your turn and stop whinging  Even most of the conservative voters I know (not all) concede that the government should be allowed to run its term. a truly convincing argument. 3 of yoru friends. and of course the 52% of australians that want one?? of course. Be a good labor supporter and ignore the majority. Thats what labor govts and labor supporters do best. It makes sense to let all oppositions call the timing of elections based on opinion polls and the desperation of the opposition leader to grab power.

it would be good to debate this question sensibly and rationally with a sense of history and perspective.

Can you put someone else on then, please?

longweekend58 wrote on May 16^th, 2012 at 7:17pm:

adelcrow wrote on May 16th, 2012 at 7:09pm: longweekend58 wrote on May 16th, 2012 at 7:07pm: Dnarever wrote on May 5th, 2012 at 7:15pm: adelcrow wrote on May 5th, 2012 at 6:40pm: Ive never met anyone outside of my friends who are members of the Liberal Party who are calling for another election and I'll say the same thing to you as I say to them over a beer or three...wait your turn and stop whinging  Even most of the conservative voters I know (not all) concede that the government should be allowed to run its term. a truly convincing argument. 3 of yoru friends. and of course the 52% of australians that want one?? of course. Be a good labor supporter and ignore the majority. Thats what labor govts and labor supporters do best. It makes sense to let all oppositions call the timing of elections based on opinion polls and the desperation of the opposition leader to grab power. it would be good to debate this question sensibly and rationally with a sense of history and perspective. Can you put someone else on then, please?

Its quite simple..Abbott wants to be PM and he doesnt want to wait until the next election and if we had elections based on opinion polls nothing would ever get done in this or any other country.