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Be careful what you wish for Amanda Vanstone March 19, 2012 Opinion Read later Comments 81 . Why is it we so quickly forget how quickly things change in politics? When the polls look good for an opposition, their members can become euphoric. That they could be blinded by the short-term positive and fall into complacency shows how little notice we take of history. In 1998, after John Howard's annus horribilis, Labor MPs were measuring up the ministerial offices and arguing over who would get what after what they thought would be their inevitable victory. They forgot how fast things can change. Counting the spoils of office before an election is never smart. The man they liked to call "little Johnny" (who in fact was taller than Bob Hawke) went on to trounce Labor at the polls that year. And a few more times after that. Similarly it can be hard to persuade troops within a government that bad polling today does not mean all is lost. Governments are perennially unpopular during their terms of office; being in government means taking the flak for everything that goes wrong. Marginal-seat holders can get very tense and lose their objectivity. A deputation of 20 in their electorate office can put panic into the hearts of an MP who won by only a few hundred votes. Such small majorities concentrate the mind. But when an election comes around, governments have natural advantages. They can pump-prime the electorate with good things and exploit the credibility that goes with being in office. Good leaders never lose heart. Howard was always very good at rallying the troops. Whenever there was a bad poll for Labor and overconfidence looked like creeping in to Coalition ranks, or when restless troops wanted to break out, he would give everyone a wake-up call. It was compelling stuff, when a man people had written off as unelectable reminded his own party room that no one was unelectable and that you underestimated your opponent to your peril. There is a risk now for the Abbott opposition. The Gillard government is in a shemozzle and the Prime Minister just cannot persuade voters to trust her. Almost no one thinks Labor can win the next election. But I can remember many times between entering Parliament in 1985 and winning office in 1996 when the Labor government looked set to fall. And didn't. And I remember being in government and everyone thinking we would lose — and we didn't. Right now, Australians are not happy with their politicians. I hear both Liberal and Labor friends saying of Gillard: "She cannot win. Nobody likes her — look at her polling." The trouble with this argument is that while Abbott is more popular, he is not much more popular. Voters do not warm to either of them. This is a worrying position for Abbott. If Bob Carr's ascendancy to the Senate changes the game, Labor's popularity could improve. The government only needs to be within striking distance of the Coalition at the start of the election campaign. Then, just one undisciplined slip-up by the opposition could hand Labor the election. Oppositions who peak too early lose. A contributing factor to Labor's difficulties is the uncertainty of minority government. One interpretation of how we ended up in this position is that many people just didn't want either Julia or Tony. Certainly, an increasing number of people can be heard saying, "a pox on both their houses". My worst nightmare is that this line of thinking continues and more, not fewer, people vote for independents at the next election. Australia needs stable and strong government. Minority government means the opposite. Still, the government is showing no signs of wanting to call an election. When a female PM from the Labor movement refuses to stand up for low-income health workers whose money has been misused by somebody to use women as prostitutes, it is pretty clear power is not going to be thrown away. That is why Abbott will not and should not be taunted into putting all his policy cards on the table now. Why give Labor something to steal, attack or discredit? Better to leave the ALP lying in the bed it made. Abbott calls regularly for this whole mess to be brought to an end. He is relentless in promoting the idea that we need an election. Giving Australians the chance to say whether they want to continue with this shemozzle seems a good idea. But "be careful what you wish for" is a timely adage. Being in opposition is child's play compared with being in government. Government runs 24/7; it is enormous. Mistakes when they inevitably happen can be hard to chase down. You wanted the job of dealing with the issues as they arose and there they are on your doorstep every morning, in your head every night. Does Abbott feel ready for this? He knows what it is like and has shown a work ethic that will easily handle government a second time around. But what about his team? Are they all up at the crack of dawn and on the job? If they are not, he should change them around. He should ask himself two questions. First, have I got the best people in my team and in the right jobs? Surely we could not consider a Liberal government without new senator Arthur Sinodinos in the ministry? Is Malcolm Turnbull being used to his fullest capacity? If not, does that reflect a weakness on Abbott's part? And sadly, there are a few "shadows" who, to steal a phrase, don't cast one. Second, his team has had some difficulty avoiding slip-ups and singing the same tune. If this isn't the time for a reshuffle, when will Abbott tighten up his team? If you can't control it now, it won't be any easier in government Read more: http://www.smh.com.au/opinion/politics/be-careful-what-you-wish-for-20120318-1vdjt.html#ixzz1pWozezZW

This from a Liberal insider, pity the hacks here don't have her insight.

Amanda Vanstone is quite a nice lady so if you ever get the chance to have a chinwag with her grab it with both hands

she is  stating the bleeding obvious..

didnt Latham think he was gods gift to Australia and was home and hosed???



Still, the government is showing no signs of wanting to call an election. When a female PM from the Labor movement refuses to stand up for low-income health workers whose money has been misused by somebody to use women as prostitutes, it is pretty clear power is not going to be thrown away.



you didnt highlight this bit...WHY?

We just wish you would stop asking for more handouts... :(

seems the latest polls are upsetting our resident hater-of-all.

The Gillard government is in a shemozzle and the Prime Minister just cannot persuade voters to trust her. Almost no one thinks Labor can win the next election.
>>
My worst nightmare is that this line of thinking continues and more, not fewer, people vote for independents at the next election.
>>
Australia needs stable and strong government. Minority government means the opposite.



All great points, thanks skippy. ::)

corporate_whitey wrote on Mar 19^th, 2012 at 1:20pm:

We just wish you would stop asking for more handouts... :(

now there is a truly hypocritical comment from the welfare-dependant corpulent whiney.

cods wrote on Mar 19^th, 2012 at 1:20pm:

she is  stating the bleeding obvious.. didnt Latham think he was gods gift to Australia and was home and hosed??? Still, the government is showing no signs of wanting to call an election. When a female PM from the Labor movement refuses to stand up for low-income health workers whose money has been misused by somebody to use women as prostitutes, it is pretty clear power is not going to be thrown away. you didnt highlight this bit...WHY?

I knew you'd come along to throw the mud,you always do.

longweekend58 wrote on Mar 19^th, 2012 at 2:45pm:

seems the latest polls are upsetting our resident hater-of-all.

I didn't know Vanstone hated everyone, I thought only you congo line dancers hated everyone. 8-)

Skippy, Why are you talking to yourself ?

Once again, the far-left can't accept the fact that Labor will be annihilated come next election. I don't know whether to laugh, or have pity. This week's QLD election will just be a taste of what is to come next year, if not sooner.

matty wrote on Mar 19^th, 2012 at 9:01pm:

Once again, the far-left can't accept the fact that Labor will be annihilated come next election.

How can you be certain of that?  State results do not always translate to the federal sphere.

During the Howard years the state election results certainly didn't mirror the federal ones.

Frances wrote on Mar 19^th, 2012 at 9:11pm:

matty wrote on Mar 19th, 2012 at 9:01pm: Once again, the far-left can't accept the fact that Labor will be annihilated come next election. How can you be certain of that?  State results do not always translate to the federal sphere.

Have you been living under a rock, or just another far-left delusional?

matty wrote on Mar 19^th, 2012 at 9:21pm:

Have you been living under a rock?

No, but it looks like you have been.  Don't you know anything about politics?

Frances wrote on Mar 19^th, 2012 at 9:26pm:

matty wrote on Mar 19th, 2012 at 9:21pm: Have you been living under a rock? No, but it looks like you have been.  Don't you know anything about politics?

Yes, I do, for example, I know that 53-47% is a route.

Frances wrote on Mar 19^th, 2012 at 9:26pm:

matty wrote on Mar 19th, 2012 at 9:21pm: Have you been living under a rock? No, but it looks like you have been.  Don't you know anything about politics?

I know Labor is polling so badly they'll be lucky to retain any seats and they have NO ONE to blame but themselves.

matty wrote on Mar 19^th, 2012 at 9:28pm:

Frances wrote on Mar 19th, 2012 at 9:26pm: matty wrote on Mar 19th, 2012 at 9:21pm: Have you been living under a rock? No, but it looks like you have been.  Don't you know anything about politics? Yes, I do, for example, I know that 53-47% is a route.

You DEFINITELY know nothing about politics. That post proves it.  :D

Gist wrote on Mar 19^th, 2012 at 10:48pm:

matty wrote on Mar 19th, 2012 at 9:28pm: Frances wrote on Mar 19th, 2012 at 9:26pm: matty wrote on Mar 19th, 2012 at 9:21pm: Have you been living under a rock? No, but it looks like you have been.  Don't you know anything about politics? Yes, I do, for example, I know that 53-47% is a route. You DEFINITELY know nothing about politics. That post proves it.  :D

Care to elaborate?

Whoever is in power micro manages the economy, kills us and free enterprise with massive consumption taxes and gives massive free welfare handouts to racist rich white middle class Government and corporate employees living in million dollar homes and absolutely nothing but a kick up the 'rse for Aboriginals up north, the working class, the Pensioners and Sudanese immigrants living in segregated hut estates....
:P :P :P

matty wrote on Mar 19^th, 2012 at 11:15pm:

Gist wrote on Mar 19th, 2012 at 10:48pm: matty wrote on Mar 19th, 2012 at 9:28pm: Frances wrote on Mar 19th, 2012 at 9:26pm: matty wrote on Mar 19th, 2012 at 9:21pm: Have you been living under a rock? No, but it looks like you have been.  Don't you know anything about politics? Yes, I do, for example, I know that 53-47% is a route. You DEFINITELY know nothing about politics. That post proves it.  :D Care to elaborate?

Well as has many a time been attempted here we go.

You probably won't understand Matty as words and frases like "equality, equity" and "in the interests of all Australians" might get used. These might actually infer that politicians are ment to be acting in the national interest not self interest. That is national as in the Australian nation Matty not the National Party. If and that is a big if, on occasion we have a politician who acts in that interest and by some strange turn of events is not politically assassinated we will end with a great leader. The only one of these i have seen in my lifetime has been Hawke. Previous to this they were either twats or i was too young to know or even not born so i cannot say. I know that since Hawke we have had self serving and destructively pre occupied government who only care for the next election and seem to have no focus on what is right. They do things like hand out middle class welfare and create government dependance to completely mismanaging the distrobution of a packet of lifesavers.

matty wrote on Mar 19^th, 2012 at 9:28pm:

Frances wrote on Mar 19th, 2012 at 9:26pm: matty wrote on Mar 19th, 2012 at 9:21pm: Have you been living under a rock? No, but it looks like you have been.  Don't you know anything about politics? Yes, I do, for example, I know that 53-47% is a route.

A route to where?

matty wrote on Mar 19^th, 2012 at 9:01pm:

Once again, the far-left can't accept the fact that Labor will be annihilated come next election. I don't know whether to laugh, or have pity. This week's QLD election will just be a taste of what is to come next year, if not sooner.

You best let Vanstone know she is from the FAR LEFT, mellie. ;D :D

nairbe wrote on Mar 20^th, 2012 at 6:30am:

matty wrote on Mar 19th, 2012 at 11:15pm: Gist wrote on Mar 19th, 2012 at 10:48pm: matty wrote on Mar 19th, 2012 at 9:28pm: Frances wrote on Mar 19th, 2012 at 9:26pm: matty wrote on Mar 19th, 2012 at 9:21pm: Have you been living under a rock? No, but it looks like you have been.  Don't you know anything about politics? Yes, I do, for example, I know that 53-47% is a route. You DEFINITELY know nothing about politics. That post proves it.  :D Care to elaborate? Well as has many a time been attempted here we go. You probably won't understand Matty as words and frases like "equality, equity" and "in the interests of all Australians" might get used. These might actually infer that politicians are ment to be acting in the national interest not self interest. That is national as in the Australian nation Matty not the National Party. If and that is a big if, on occasion we have a politician who acts in that interest and by some strange turn of events is not politically assassinated we will end with a great leader. The only one of these i have seen in my lifetime has been Hawke. Previous to this they were either twats or i was too young to know or even not born so i cannot say. I know that since Hawke we have had self serving and destructively pre occupied government who only care for the next election and seem to have no focus on what is right. They do things like hand out middle class welfare and create government dependance to completely mismanaging the distrobution of a packet of lifesavers.

Ummm, I am struggling to see any relevance to what I asked, whatsoever.

Besides, that is a matter of opinion. John Howard (alongside Pauline Hanson) was my role model, growing up. I thought that he was a fantastic Prime Minister. He didn't win four terms for nothing, and he did care about the Australian people. Hawke was a womanising sleaze, who left his wife when she needed care most. A sleaze of the worst kind. I would call him a grub, but that would be an insult to grubs.

You don't have to be stroppy with me, if you want to play that game, then maybe learn the actual spelling of "frase".

skippy. wrote on Mar 20^th, 2012 at 7:50am:

matty wrote on Mar 19th, 2012 at 9:01pm: Once again, the far-left can't accept the fact that Labor will be annihilated come next election. I don't know whether to laugh, or have pity. This week's QLD election will just be a taste of what is to come next year, if not sooner. You best let Vanstone know she is from the FAR LEFT, mellie. ;D :D

Take note, everyone. Yet another example of the far-left's lack of comprehension skills.

Here are 50 of Labor's best achievements which will guarantee the ALP will be re-elected next year with a resounding majority and this will reignite the brilliant union with the fabulous Communist Greens who will cover Australia with wonderful solar powered wind turbines.


1.. Carbon Tax – “There will be no carbon tax under the Government I lead.”

2.. NBN – $50 billion but no cost-benefit analysis

3.. Building the Education Revolution – The school halls fiasco

4.. Home Insulation Plan (Pink Batts) – Dumped

5. Citizens Assembly – Dumped

6.. Cash for Clunkers – Dumped

7.. Hospital Reform – Nothing

8.. Digital set-top boxes – Cheaper at Harvey Norman

9.. Emissions Trading Scheme – Abandoned

10. Mining Tax – Continuing uncertainty for our miners

11. Livestock export ban to Indonesia – Over-reaction

12. Detention Centres – Riots & cost blow-outs

13. East Timor ‘solution’ – Announced before agreed

14. Malaysia ‘solution’ – Still not agreed

15. Manus Island ‘solution’ – On the backburner

16. Computers in Schools – $1.4 billion blow out; less than half delivered

17. Cutting Red Tape – 12,835 new regulations, only 58 repealed

18. Asia Pacific Community – Another expensive Rudd frolic. Going nowhere

19. Green Loans Program – Abandoned. Only 3.5% of promised loans delivered

20. Solar Homes & Communities plan – Shut down after $534 million blow out

21. Green Car Innovation Fund – Abandoned

22. Solar Credits Scheme – Scaled back

23. Green Start Program – Scrapped

24. Retooling for Climate Change Program – Abolished

25. Childcare Centres – Abandoned. 260 promised, only 38 delivered

26. Take a “meat axe”’ to the Public Service – 24,000 more public servants

27. Murray Darling Basin Plan – back to the drawing board

28. 2020 Summit – Meaningless talkfest

29. Tax Summit – Deferred and downgraded

30. Population Policy – Sets no targets

31. Fuel Watch – Abandoned

32. Grocery Choice – Abandoned

33. $900 Stimulus cheques – Sent to dead people and overseas residents

34. Foreign Policy – In turmoil with Rudd running riot

35. National Schools Solar Program – Closing two years early

36. Solar Hot Water Rebate – Abandoned

37. Oceanic Viking – Caved in

38. GP Super Clinics – 64 promised, only 11 operational

39. Defence Family Healthcare Clinics – 12 promised, none delivered

40. Trade Training Centres – 2650 promised, 70 operational

41. Bid for UN Security Council seat – An expensive Rudd frolic

42. MySchool Website – Revamped but problems continue

43. National Curriculum – States in uproar

44. Small Business Superannuation Clearing House – 99% of small businesses reject it

45. Indigenous Housing Program – way behind schedule

46. Rudd Bank – Went nowhere

47. Using cheap Chinese fabrics for ADF uniforms – Ditched

48. Innovation Ambassadors Program – junked

49. Six Submarines – none operational

50. Debt limit to be increased to $250 billion – to pay for all of this and much more