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http://newsstore.smh.com.au/apps/viewDocument.ac?page=1&sy=smh&kw=Malcolm++Turnbull&pb=all_ffx&dt=selectRange&dr=day&so=relevance&sf=text&sf=headline&rc=10&rm=200&sp=nrm&clsPage=1&docID=SMH1203033M2US7IR36U





Nielsen head pollster John Stirton agrees. "The Liberals will probably not consider changing leader when they are so far ahead, but the figures suggest they'd be much further ahead under Malcolm Turnbull, that Abbott may be holding the Coalition back somewhat."




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It was what he chose to say that got noticed. Malcolm Turnbull was making an important intellectual contribution to the Liberal Party, Sinodinos said, and using the licence former party leaders have to speak out "in a wise and constructive way".

Quote:

No one believes Turnbull has stayed in politics to be Abbott's communications spokesman. Some of his friends say he suffers from what one friend describes as "merchant banker's disease" - always moving on to the next big thing.

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As often as he can, he makes "intellectual contributions" beyond his portfolio brief - talking about the rise of China or the pressing need for Australia to save profits from the mining boom with a sovereign wealth fund.

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"I am an ambitious person, but I am not ambitious in the sense that I want jobs only for the sake of them ... I am here to do things I think are worthwhile. I am always careful that the political positions I take are consistent with good policy. I would not want to be prime minister of Australia at any price."

Quote:

Turnbull has watched with dismay as the political discourse has been "dumbed down" in what he believes is a disastrous way. "The political debate has not been very edifying, I must say. It has not been a great period of political discourse, the nastiness of it all," he says, stabbing distractedly at his food. "Elements of the media have contributed to that and politicians have also ... There is a tendency to try to dumb everything down and turn everything into a one-paragraph press release or even less, just a slogan. It's depriving us of a substantive policy debate."

Quote:

"The only thing I can do is not fall into that. I try to talk about policy issues intelligently, I try very hard to avoid thought bubbles. I make sure my speeches are well researched and footnoted. I make sure I am not talking through my hat."

Quote:

The most recent Fairfax/Nielsen poll to ask the question, in October 2011, put Turnbull (at 44 per cent) well ahead of Abbott (28 per cent) or Joe Hockey (23 per cent), with Turnbull's support strongest among non-Coalition voters. But while the Coalition's primary vote remains at election-winning levels, inside the party it remains an irrelevant question.

The guy has a lot of merit and it's a shame that Libs are slow on the uptake.

A lot of people are unhappy with Gillard, while not stupid enough to vote Abbott.

If only Libs could give Malcolm the leadership and moderate the party and formulate some decent policies.

I can't believe Liberals want to grab defeat from the jaws of victory by backing a lame duck abbott. While Abbott is there, when pushed, swing and non rusted voters will back Gillard over Abbott.

Quote:

While Abbott is there, when pushed, swing and non rusted voters will back Gillard over Abbott.

That is so true,and the reason the Libs are not flogging Labor. The rusted on congo line will deny this is true, which just confirms it is.

skippy. wrote on Mar 4^th, 2012 at 11:04am:

Quote: While Abbott is there, when pushed, swing and non rusted voters will back Gillard over Abbott. That is so true,and the reason the Libs are not flogging Labor. The rusted on congo line will deny this is true, which just confirms it is.

55/45 2PP lead is not a 'flogging'???

you sometimes are stupider than snot.

longweekend58 wrote on Mar 4^th, 2012 at 1:47pm:

skippy. wrote on Mar 4th, 2012 at 11:04am: Quote: While Abbott is there, when pushed, swing and non rusted voters will back Gillard over Abbott. That is so true,and the reason the Libs are not flogging Labor. The rusted on congo line will deny this is true, which just confirms it is. 55/45 2PP lead is not a 'flogging'??? you sometimes are stupider than snot.

18mths out from an election it means nothing.

longweekend58 wrote on Mar 4^th, 2012 at 1:47pm:

skippy. wrote on Mar 4th, 2012 at 11:04am: Quote: While Abbott is there, when pushed, swing and non rusted voters will back Gillard over Abbott. That is so true,and the reason the Libs are not flogging Labor. The rusted on congo line will deny this is true, which just confirms it is. 55/45 2PP lead is not a 'flogging'??? you sometimes are stupider than snot.

LOL I told you the rusted on congo line would deny its true. Seems they make up the TPP too, the last one out I saw had them at 52 48, but we're used to longwhine and his lies, he's built his whole persona on lies.

longweekend58 wrote on Mar 4^th, 2012 at 1:47pm:

skippy. wrote on Mar 4th, 2012 at 11:04am: Quote: While Abbott is there, when pushed, swing and non rusted voters will back Gillard over Abbott. That is so true,and the reason the Libs are not flogging Labor. The rusted on congo line will deny this is true, which just confirms it is. 55/45 2PP lead is not a 'flogging'??? you sometimes are stupider than snot.

and within a few seconds the polls move again

54/46
http://www.newspoll.com.au/image_uploads/120104%20Federal%20Voting%20Intention%20&%20Leaders%20Ratings.pdf

adelcrow wrote on Mar 4^th, 2012 at 1:49pm:

longweekend58 wrote on Mar 4th, 2012 at 1:47pm: skippy. wrote on Mar 4th, 2012 at 11:04am: Quote: While Abbott is there, when pushed, swing and non rusted voters will back Gillard over Abbott. That is so true,and the reason the Libs are not flogging Labor. The rusted on congo line will deny this is true, which just confirms it is. 55/45 2PP lead is not a 'flogging'??? you sometimes are stupider than snot. 18mths out from an election it means nothing.

so you keep saying, while being totally wrong. why do you think they take these polls anyhow? entertainment? why do you think poltical parties place so much stock in them? because they are all fools?

If you study political hsitory you will discover than the polls inbetween electios are an invaluable guide to the result of the next. It does require a degree of analytical skill however but for you two who demonstrate and almost unforgivable inability with basic arithmetic, it would elude you.

John Howard correctly worked out from the polls that he would lose the 2007 election a year before it was due. Yet he had come back from far worse positions in the past to win with a healthy margin. So why was his analysis so correct? When you can answer that you might be some way towards working out why virtually no one gives Gillard a chance of even getting CLOSE, nevermind winning.

skippy. wrote on Mar 4^th, 2012 at 1:51pm:

longweekend58 wrote on Mar 4th, 2012 at 1:47pm: skippy. wrote on Mar 4th, 2012 at 11:04am: Quote: While Abbott is there, when pushed, swing and non rusted voters will back Gillard over Abbott. That is so true,and the reason the Libs are not flogging Labor. The rusted on congo line will deny this is true, which just confirms it is. 55/45 2PP lead is not a 'flogging'??? you sometimes are stupider than snot. LOL I told you the rusted on congo line would deny its true. Seems they make up the TPP too, the last one out I saw had them at 52 48, but we're used to longwhine and his lies, he's built his whole persona on lies.

when you pick and choose your stats, anything is possible. but when you try to actually get facts, things change.

you are a fool skippy. you make up information, misinterpret others and in between, just blatantly lie. No wonder you like Gillard.

Gillard was on 47 to 53 last week,the same numbers Keating and Howard had   just weeks out from elections,THAT THEY WON. Only a fool would call an election 18 months out, oh I see,longwhine is ,so a fool is.

longweekend58 wrote on Mar 4^th, 2012 at 2:07pm:

skippy. wrote on Mar 4th, 2012 at 1:51pm: longweekend58 wrote on Mar 4th, 2012 at 1:47pm: skippy. wrote on Mar 4th, 2012 at 11:04am: Quote: While Abbott is there, when pushed, swing and non rusted voters will back Gillard over Abbott. That is so true,and the reason the Libs are not flogging Labor. The rusted on congo line will deny this is true, which just confirms it is. 55/45 2PP lead is not a 'flogging'??? you sometimes are stupider than snot. LOL I told you the rusted on congo line would deny its true. Seems they make up the TPP too, the last one out I saw had them at 52 48, but we're used to longwhine and his lies, he's built his whole persona on lies. when you pick and choose your stats, anything is possible. but when you try to actually get facts, things change. you are a fool skippy. you make up information, misinterpret others and in between, just blatantly lie. No wonder you like Gillard.

Coming from the biggest liar on the forum thats a big call pinocchio. Gillard was on 47 to 53 last week, fool.
If you watch Insiders you'd know they are combining all the polls into one number to make it easier, ATM that number is Labor 48 coalition 52, again I really must ask, were you born this stupid ,or were you dropped on your head?

skippy. wrote on Mar 4^th, 2012 at 2:12pm:

Gillard was on 47 to 53 last week,the same numbers Keating and Howard had   just weeks out from elections,THAT THEY WON. Only a fool would call an election 18 months out, oh I see,longwhine is ,so a fool is.

18 mths is almost 2 years..whos cares who people would vote for when there is NOT an election.
What counts is who people vote for when there IS an election.

skippy. wrote on Mar 4^th, 2012 at 2:16pm:

longweekend58 wrote on Mar 4th, 2012 at 2:07pm: skippy. wrote on Mar 4th, 2012 at 1:51pm: longweekend58 wrote on Mar 4th, 2012 at 1:47pm: skippy. wrote on Mar 4th, 2012 at 11:04am: Quote: While Abbott is there, when pushed, swing and non rusted voters will back Gillard over Abbott. That is so true,and the reason the Libs are not flogging Labor. The rusted on congo line will deny this is true, which just confirms it is. 55/45 2PP lead is not a 'flogging'??? you sometimes are stupider than snot. LOL I told you the rusted on congo line would deny its true. Seems they make up the TPP too, the last one out I saw had them at 52 48, but we're used to longwhine and his lies, he's built his whole persona on lies. when you pick and choose your stats, anything is possible. but when you try to actually get facts, things change. you are a fool skippy. you make up information, misinterpret others and in between, just blatantly lie. No wonder you like Gillard. Coming from the biggest liar on the forum thats a big call pinocchio. Gillard was on 47 to 53 last week, fool. If you watch Insiders you'd know they are combining all the polls into one number to make it easier, ATM that number is Labor 48 coalition 52, again I really must ask, were you born this stupid ,or were you dropped on your head?

yes you keep quoting the Insiders - a media program - which is at odds with EVERY PROFESSIONAL pollster and statistician in the country. and then tomorrow you wil be lamblasting the media for its bias towards the libs.  make up your tiny mind!!!

every single analyst - including labor's own - say that labor has little chance of avoiding a drubbing at the next eection but you... a dimwit internet denizen knows better...

so go ahead. make a firm unequivocal prediction that labor will win. I dare you!

a dimwit internet denizen knows better
I doubt you do.

longweekend58 wrote on Mar 4^th, 2012 at 2:23pm:

skippy. wrote on Mar 4th, 2012 at 2:16pm: longweekend58 wrote on Mar 4th, 2012 at 2:07pm: skippy. wrote on Mar 4th, 2012 at 1:51pm: longweekend58 wrote on Mar 4th, 2012 at 1:47pm: skippy. wrote on Mar 4th, 2012 at 11:04am: Quote: While Abbott is there, when pushed, swing and non rusted voters will back Gillard over Abbott. That is so true,and the reason the Libs are not flogging Labor. The rusted on congo line will deny this is true, which just confirms it is. 55/45 2PP lead is not a 'flogging'??? you sometimes are stupider than snot. LOL I told you the rusted on congo line would deny its true. Seems they make up the TPP too, the last one out I saw had them at 52 48, but we're used to longwhine and his lies, he's built his whole persona on lies. when you pick and choose your stats, anything is possible. but when you try to actually get facts, things change. you are a fool skippy. you make up information, misinterpret others and in between, just blatantly lie. No wonder you like Gillard. Coming from the biggest liar on the forum thats a big call pinocchio. Gillard was on 47 to 53 last week, fool. If you watch Insiders you'd know they are combining all the polls into one number to make it easier, ATM that number is Labor 48 coalition 52, again I really must ask, were you born this stupid ,or were you dropped on your head? yes you keep quoting the Insiders - a media program - which is at odds with EVERY PROFESSIONAL pollster and statistician in the country. and then tomorrow you wil be lamblasting the media for its bias towards the libs.  make up your tiny mind!!! every single analyst - including labor's own - say that labor has little chance of avoiding a drubbing at the next eection but you... a dimwit internet denizen knows better... so go ahead. make a firm unequivocal prediction that labor will win. I dare you!

Its almost 2 yrs away..only an idiot would predict a Federal election that far out.
I rest my case your honour

adelcrow wrote on Mar 4^th, 2012 at 2:17pm:

skippy. wrote on Mar 4th, 2012 at 2:12pm: Gillard was on 47 to 53 last week,the same numbers Keating and Howard had   just weeks out from elections,THAT THEY WON. Only a fool would call an election 18 months out, oh I see,longwhine is ,so a fool is. 18 mths is almost 2 years..whos cares who people would vote for when there is NOT an election. What counts is who people vote for when there IS an election.

you keep telling yourself that while the actual professional know the truth. the polls DO matter and in a parliament where the death of resignation of just one lower house member will end Gillard's reign than the polls have an even more potent meaning.

Im sure all of the above goes above your head.

adelcrow wrote on Mar 4^th, 2012 at 2:27pm:

longweekend58 wrote on Mar 4th, 2012 at 2:23pm: skippy. wrote on Mar 4th, 2012 at 2:16pm: longweekend58 wrote on Mar 4th, 2012 at 2:07pm: skippy. wrote on Mar 4th, 2012 at 1:51pm: longweekend58 wrote on Mar 4th, 2012 at 1:47pm: skippy. wrote on Mar 4th, 2012 at 11:04am: Quote: While Abbott is there, when pushed, swing and non rusted voters will back Gillard over Abbott. That is so true,and the reason the Libs are not flogging Labor. The rusted on congo line will deny this is true, which just confirms it is. 55/45 2PP lead is not a 'flogging'??? you sometimes are stupider than snot. LOL I told you the rusted on congo line would deny its true. Seems they make up the TPP too, the last one out I saw had them at 52 48, but we're used to longwhine and his lies, he's built his whole persona on lies. when you pick and choose your stats, anything is possible. but when you try to actually get facts, things change. you are a fool skippy. you make up information, misinterpret others and in between, just blatantly lie. No wonder you like Gillard. Coming from the biggest liar on the forum thats a big call pinocchio. Gillard was on 47 to 53 last week, fool. If you watch Insiders you'd know they are combining all the polls into one number to make it easier, ATM that number is Labor 48 coalition 52, again I really must ask, were you born this stupid ,or were you dropped on your head? yes you keep quoting the Insiders - a media program - which is at odds with EVERY PROFESSIONAL pollster and statistician in the country. and then tomorrow you wil be lamblasting the media for its bias towards the libs.  make up your tiny mind!!! every single analyst - including labor's own - say that labor has little chance of avoiding a drubbing at the next eection but you... a dimwit internet denizen knows better... so go ahead. make a firm unequivocal prediction that labor will win. I dare you! Its almost 2 yrs away..only an idiot would predict a Federal election that far out. I rest my case your honour

actually it is 18months at MOST AND, poltiical history gives us a good guide to who will win.

skippy. wrote on Mar 4^th, 2012 at 2:25pm:

a dimwit internet denizen knows better I doubt you do.

dont take my word for it... read EVERY SINGLE political analyst.

Now who was it that predicted that the labor minority government would not last a year ... anyone remember.

Long, would it be worth my while to dig?



Also the insiders amalgamated all polls and averaged them out. Sound a logical way to see trends.

____ wrote on Mar 4^th, 2012 at 2:59pm:

Now who was it that predicted that the labor minority government would not last a year ... anyone remember. Long, would it be worth my while to dig? Also the insiders amalgamated all polls and averaged them out. Sound a logical way to see trends.

with your primary school level of education, I could not explain to you just way that is an invalid methodology.

The only certain thing after the next election is that the Greens will have the balance of power in the Senate and the 2 major parties will be at each others throats.
Oh..and if Labor loses the next election they will take a leaf out of Abbotts book and will absolutely oppose everything the govt proposes  ;D

adelcrow wrote on Mar 4^th, 2012 at 3:04pm:

The only certain thing after the next election is that the Greens will have the balance of power in the Senate and the 2 major parties will be at each others throats. Oh..and if Labor loses the next election they will take a leaf out of Abbotts book and will absolutely oppose everything the govt proposes  ;D

except abbot has none nothing differenc than any opposition leader in history. the difference now is that people actually take notice of what Abbott is doing.

longweekend58 wrote on Mar 4^th, 2012 at 2:54pm:

skippy. wrote on Mar 4th, 2012 at 2:25pm: a dimwit internet denizen knows better I doubt you do. dont take my word for it... read EVERY SINGLE political analyst.

Unlike YOU, I DO. Thats why I know you're wrong,silly old fool.

longweekend58 wrote on Mar 4^th, 2012 at 2:54pm:

skippy. wrote on Mar 4th, 2012 at 2:25pm: a dimwit internet denizen knows better I doubt you do. dont take my word for it... read EVERY SINGLE political analyst.

Yes every single political analyst thinks Abbott is a complete idiot who is only there because labor are hopeless and the media have no idea about the truth. that is what the analysts think.

nairbe wrote on Mar 4^th, 2012 at 3:07pm:

longweekend58 wrote on Mar 4th, 2012 at 2:54pm: skippy. wrote on Mar 4th, 2012 at 2:25pm: a dimwit internet denizen knows better I doubt you do. dont take my word for it... read EVERY SINGLE political analyst. Yes every single political analyst thinks Abbott is a complete idiot who is only there because labor are hopeless and the media have no idea about the truth. that is what the analysts think.

Quite right ..every single independent political analyst reckons we hate both of them

care to actally quote someone who thinks Gillard will win? It's hard to find many that even think it is a possibility!

go ahead... show that these last few posts werene t just vain imaginings...

longweekend58 wrote on Mar 4^th, 2012 at 3:41pm:

care to actally quote someone who thinks Gillard will win? It's hard to find many that even think it is a possibility! go ahead... show that these last few posts werene t just vain imaginings...

No one said Gillard would win looser, try giving us a link to someone that thinks Abbott is a political genious that isn't bolt or jones and co. And the lower case is not a mistake.

Nielsen head pollster John Stirton agrees. "The Liberals will probably not consider changing leader when they are so far ahead, but the figures suggest they'd be much further ahead under Malcolm Turnbull, that Abbott may be holding the Coalition back somewhat."



Once polls start to swing back to Labor, lame duck is gone and Turnbull takes over.

____ wrote on Mar 4^th, 2012 at 3:45pm:

Nielsen head pollster John Stirton agrees. "The Liberals will probably not consider changing leader when they are so far ahead, but the figures suggest they'd be much further ahead under Malcolm Turnbull, that Abbott may be holding the Coalition back somewhat." Once polls start to swing back to Labor, lame duck is gone and Turnbull takes over.

Neilsen: the second least respected and accurate polling group.

galaxy and newspoll dont make such idiotic statements.

Quote:

John Howard correctly worked out from the polls that he would lose the 2007 election a year before it was due. Yet he had come back from far worse positions in the past to win with a healthy margin.

So with this statement I am confused.
Your saying that Howard had been in WORSE positions via the polls but had still won.
He, like you and many others including myself,  knew that the difference was the "it's time" factor, a theory that has been proven several times over the past 2 decades.
Yet there is no it's time factor with either Gillard or Labor, yet you still wish to argue that they cannot reverse the polls & possibly win the next election.
I get you wouldn't want that and that's fine but trying to use reasoned analysis of history and polling combined with partisan rhetoric just creates confusion.

People forget just how far away the election is.  The liberals seem to think they have it in the bag, but that is not necessarily so.  Also remember polls can be wrong.  In any case its all very well to say Turnbull would be better than Abbott, but what about some policies.  For the best part of it, people are kept in the dark, although it is true, we do know a few very frightening things, that the liberals would do.   :(