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The death of peak oilAlan Kohler

Published 7:17 AM, 29 Feb 2012


--------------------------------------------------------------------------------
inShare


Here’s another structural transformation to add to all the others that you have to get your head around: it’s the transformation of global energy markets as a result of shale oil and gas.

We’ve already got the digital revolution and the switch from consumption to savings after the GFC, not to mention the rise of China and India. Now we have the death of peak oil.

For years we have assumed that fossil fuel reserves were running out, that peak oil production had occurred some time ago and that it was only a matter of time before the oil price rose to such heights that energy-dependent economies would be crushed, starting with the United States.

In a way these assumptions have helped underpin the movement against global warming (that is, we’ll have to give up oil anyway since it’s running out, so we might as well make the best of a bad lot and embrace electric cars and wind farms and save the planet from climate change while we’re at it).

In fact the existence of vast reserves of oil and gas in shale formations, mainly in the United States, combined with the return of the oil price to $US100 a barrel without, so far, causing a global recession, is producing a profound transformation of energy markets.

Forget declining oil, there is a new global oil rush. The US has an estimated 2 trillion barrels of shale oil reserves – about 70 per cent of the world’s total and eight times the oil reserves of Saudi Arabia. The gas reserves, in the US, Australia and elsewhere, are vast.

The cost of extracting shale oil ranges from $US95 per barrel down to $US12, although the process of fracking, where water is pumped in to break up the shale and release the oil, is very controversial – as highlighted on the ABC’s Foreign Correspondent program last night.

But where there’s oil there’s a way. BHP Billiton has paid $15 billion for shale oil and gas acreage, through its acquisition of Petrohawk, and now owns four large areas in Arkansas, Louisiana and Texas. The company is spending billions developing the project; its Haynesville project in Arkansas is already the largest shale play in the US, producing 6.5 billion cubic feet of gas per day.

There was an earlier shale energy rush in the 1980s, following the second oil shock, but it quickly collapsed with the oil price.

However, now the price is back to where it was in real terms, making it economic, and extraction technology has advanced enormously as well. It wasn’t until the late 1980s and early 1990s that the first commercial horizontal wells were successfully drilled and modern 'multi-stage' hydraulic fracturing (fracking) techniques did not emerge until ten years ago.

Production of shale gas in the US began to increase rapidly in 2010 thanks to advances in fracking technology. It has now been used in more than 1 million wells, and operators are currently fracturing about 35,000 wells a year.

It’s a remarkable process: the reserves are usually about five kilometres below the surface (much deeper than coal seam gas); wells are drilled down to them and then horizontally through them for another five or six kilometres; the horizontal part of the well is perforated by explosives and then fluid and sand are pumped down at high pressure to fracture the shale. The hydrocarbons then flow to the surface.

The opposition to this in the US is similar to the growing opposition to coal seam gas developments in Australia; whether any of the opponents get anywhere is a different matter, especially in the US.

The drive for self-sufficiency in oil and gas is very powerful indeed, and in pursuit of that there is a massive boom in shale energy development, leading to big fortunes being made in infrastructure and servicing, not to mention the energy itself.

Australia has relatively small shale oil reserves – here it’s more about coal seam methane. China has more shale energy reserves in total than the US but they're deeper and the geology is more difficult. There are big reserves in Poland and France, as well as Russia and the Congo in Africa.

But so far it’s all about the United States, which has the reserves and the largest market close by.

The importance of this for the world is hard to exaggerate. The distribution of energy on the planet is shifting: the stranglehold that Middle Eastern dictatorships have over the world’s energy supply is loosening and just as the rise of manufacturing in China shifted the world’s economic axis, so will the rise of shale energy in North America.

There will be a rapid substitution of coal by cleaner gas, especially as (or perhaps if) emissions trading schemes and carbon taxes spread.

It means renewable energy and nuclear will become less and less economic as the supply of gas increases, whether it’s from coal seams or shale. Gas is less carbon intensive than coal, but it still produces greenhouse gases, so it may be that the policy response to reduce global warming will actually have to increase if the world moves too far towards gas and away from renewables and nuclear.

If the United States could become self-sufficient in energy, its current account deficit would disappear and the US dollar would start rising again.

In fact, shale energy could be responsible for the resurgence of the United States as an economic superpower, with cheap local energy underpinning the second coming of its manufacturing industry as well as helping to balance its twin deficits – the current account and federal budget.

One thing is for sure: the world isn’t running out of oil and gas any more.

http://www.businessspectator.com.au/bs.nsf/Article/peak-oil-shale-gas-fracking-energy-nuclear-budget-pd20120229-RWR7C?opendocument&src=idp&utm_source=exact&utm_medium=email&utm_content=17865&utm_campaign=kgb&modapt=commentary

this should upset perceptions and lastnail

Good on you longie

Both the aforementioned names have a rudimentary understanding of Peak Oil at best

At the time when Peak Oil was first touted in the 50's - it was based on figures inclusive of OPEC which represented 95% of all world producers. The figures also represent the technology at the time

Now OPEC represents less than 50% of producers ie more supply capacity has come on the market since the purported Peak Oil date yet they are still banging on about Peak Oil

Not only that - technology has evolved so much to increase supply even more

So these Peak Oil alarmists likes to read these articles and assume they are now knowledgeable in the area

If they don't understand the fundamental pricing model in Australia how can they understand the more complex supply model around the world

Fossil fuels will last forever...thats a relief  ;D

We spent $700 million on R&D into cleaner energy last year.

$700 million.

Tell me energy companies are not doing anything for the environment.

Is this a surprise? I thought it was pretty obvious that the push for CSG worldwide was due to the concern that oil reserves are running down. The question is - do we want to go down the road of CSG? From what I've seen, I think the answer is definitely "no".

adelcrow wrote on Feb 29^th, 2012 at 10:58am:

Fossil fuels will last forever...thats a relief  ;D

That's why I've always asserted that Peak Oil is a THEORY

In THEORY all finite resources have a "peak point"

Ive been hearng about Peak Oil for decades now and the predictions that there would be no oil or petrol ina 'a few years time'.  I am a cynic about such predictions and they have been about as accurate as climate change predictions - ie totally wrong.

And keep in mind that tar sands oil production is becoming viable and Canada has 7 times the amount of oil that Sauid Arabis has in its tar sands.

I dont expect to be driving and EV for a long time - not while petrol is freely available and vastly more powerful than electricity.

Maqqa wrote on Feb 29^th, 2012 at 11:04am:

adelcrow wrote on Feb 29th, 2012 at 10:58am: Fossil fuels will last forever...thats a relief  ;D That's why I've always asserted that Peak Oil is a THEORY In THEORY all finite resources have a "peak point"

but that peak point can only be known if you have knowledge of 100% of reserves. So far all we ave done is extract the EASY oil and gas.

oh yeah, the easy stuff. The Gulf of Mexico is a piece of cake. Just ask BP.

Gist wrote on Feb 29^th, 2012 at 12:10pm:

oh yeah, the easy stuff. The Gulf of Mexico is a piece of cake. Just ask BP.

RELATIVELY easy compared to drilling 5000M down and then go horizontal.

was that so hard to work out?

Sh!t that is easy! We'll never run out! Infinite reserves!

Gliese 581 ~ Goldilocks zone  ~ has oil too


Just have to created a drill that will reach that star system.

Peak oil also relates to the cost of getting the stuff out and processed.

i.e oilsand of canada.

There is no reason petrol should cost more than 50c per-liter - its a massive scam and rip[ping the heart out of the economy.  Ditch consumption based pricing and get back to the law of supply and demand. 8-) 8-)

Gist wrote on Feb 29^th, 2012 at 12:32pm:

Sh!t that is easy! We'll never run out! Infinite reserves!

Interested in making a rational response anytimesoon?

longweekend58 wrote on Feb 29^th, 2012 at 12:57pm:

Gist wrote on Feb 29th, 2012 at 12:32pm: Sh!t that is easy! We'll never run out! Infinite reserves! Interested in making a rational response anytimesoon?

Im just so happy we've found infinate supplies of fossil fuels ..I can sleep well tonight  :D

____ wrote on Feb 29^th, 2012 at 12:38pm:

Gliese 581 ~ Goldilocks zone  ~ has oil too Just have to created a drill that will reach that star system. Peak oil also relates to the cost of getting the stuff out and processed. i.e oilsand of canada.

Which has already been successfuly dealt with. Dotry and keep up!

longweekend58 wrote on Feb 29^th, 2012 at 12:57pm:

Gist wrote on Feb 29th, 2012 at 12:32pm: Sh!t that is easy! We'll never run out! Infinite reserves! Interested in making a rational response anytimesoon?

I give rational responses to rational arguments. If you give me looney tunes, expect the same in return.

There is no such thing as infinite anything. If you think oil won't run out then brains on toast makes you look stupid. So there will be a point at which production peaks. If you know 100% of reserves then you can predict peak oil 100% accurately. Do YOU know 100% of reserves? If you don't then you don't know when peak oil is do you? So you don't know anything. As usual.

Gist wrote on Feb 29^th, 2012 at 1:55pm:

longweekend58 wrote on Feb 29th, 2012 at 12:57pm: Gist wrote on Feb 29th, 2012 at 12:32pm: Sh!t that is easy! We'll never run out! Infinite reserves! Interested in making a rational response anytimesoon? I give rational responses to rational arguments. If you give me looney tunes, expect the same in return. There is no such thing as infinite anything. If you think oil won't run out then brains on toast makes you look stupid. So there will be a point at which production peaks. If you know 100% of reserves then you can predict peak oil 100% accurately. Do YOU know 100% of reserves? If you don't then you don't know when peak oil is do you? So you don't know anything. As usual.

I never said oil reserves were infite and you know I didnt. I said that the known viable supplies are now about 10 times what they were and the power shift will be to north america which dramatically alters the politics of the world.

So do try and actually read what I said. The current known viable supplies will probably last 200 years. thats a really massive change to 'we are going to run out of oil by 2025' or at one stage 1985!

COMPRENDE?

longweekend58 wrote on Feb 29^th, 2012 at 1:00pm:

____ wrote on Feb 29th, 2012 at 12:38pm: Gliese 581 ~ Goldilocks zone  ~ has oil too Just have to created a drill that will reach that star system. Peak oil also relates to the cost of getting the stuff out and processed. i.e oilsand of canada. Which has already been successfuly dealt with. Dotry and keep up!

No we haven't you just whipped it aside because it doesn't fit your argument.

The cost of tar sand will push up oil prices in conjunction with peak oil pressures.


Then their will be the carbon pollution price added to tar sand that will force oil prices up even further.

longweekend58 wrote on Feb 29^th, 2012 at 2:05pm:

Gist wrote on Feb 29th, 2012 at 1:55pm: longweekend58 wrote on Feb 29th, 2012 at 12:57pm: Gist wrote on Feb 29th, 2012 at 12:32pm: Sh!t that is easy! We'll never run out! Infinite reserves! Interested in making a rational response anytimesoon? I give rational responses to rational arguments. If you give me looney tunes, expect the same in return. There is no such thing as infinite anything. If you think oil won't run out then brains on toast makes you look stupid. So there will be a point at which production peaks. If you know 100% of reserves then you can predict peak oil 100% accurately. Do YOU know 100% of reserves? If you don't then you don't know when peak oil is do you? So you don't know anything. As usual. I never said oil reserves were infite and you know I didnt. I said that the known viable supplies are now about 10 times what they were and the power shift will be to north america which dramatically alters the politics of the world. So do try and actually read what I said. The current known viable supplies will probably last 200 years. thats a really massive change to 'we are going to run out of oil by 2025' or at one stage 1985! COMPRENDE?

What are your parameters of viable?

longweekend58 wrote on Feb 29^th, 2012 at 2:05pm:

I never said oil reserves were infite and you know I didnt. I said that the known viable supplies are now about 10 times what they were and the power shift will be to north america which dramatically alters the politics of the world. So do try and actually read what I said. The current known viable supplies will probably last 200 years. thats a really massive change to 'we are going to run out of oil by 2025' or at one stage 1985! COMPRENDE?

Ah! 10 times the reserves? At what price? You may not have noticed but the price of oil keeps rising. Probably because there's less of it left. Hell yes, it'll never run out, for sure. Because at some point whatever is left will be too friggin' expensive for anyone to buy! The Gina Rinehardts of this world will have tiny vials of the stuff to use as a dab-on perfume just to show how obscenely wealthy they are.

So when do you want to call a switch to renewables? When petrol is $1.50 a litre? Or are you proposing we sit around scratching our arses until the price gets to $15 a litre and then maybe we'll think about it? $150 a litre? More?

Its nice to know that in just two centuries we will have wrung every last drop of oil out of the earth. After that people can please themselves knowing we burnt every drop of a valuable resource and further polluted the atmosphere, oceans, rivers, lakes and land when we didnt need to.
We deserve a round of applause  8-)

adelcrow wrote on Feb 29^th, 2012 at 2:23pm:

Its nice to know that in just two centuries we will have wrung every last drop of oil out of the earth. After that people can please themselves knowing we burnt every drop of a valuable resource and further polluted the atmosphere, oceans, rivers, lakes and land when we didnt need to. We deserve a round of applause  8-)

You forgot the industry paid me bonuses too...

Life is good my friend.
:)

Andrei.Hicks wrote on Feb 29^th, 2012 at 2:25pm:

adelcrow wrote on Feb 29th, 2012 at 2:23pm: Its nice to know that in just two centuries we will have wrung every last drop of oil out of the earth. After that people can please themselves knowing we burnt every drop of a valuable resource and further polluted the atmosphere, oceans, rivers, lakes and land when we didnt need to. We deserve a round of applause  8-) You forgot the industry paid me bonuses too... Life is good my friend. :)

The beers are on Andrei  ;)

adelcrow wrote on Feb 29^th, 2012 at 2:28pm:

Andrei.Hicks wrote on Feb 29th, 2012 at 2:25pm: adelcrow wrote on Feb 29th, 2012 at 2:23pm: Its nice to know that in just two centuries we will have wrung every last drop of oil out of the earth. After that people can please themselves knowing we burnt every drop of a valuable resource and further polluted the atmosphere, oceans, rivers, lakes and land when we didnt need to. We deserve a round of applause  8-) You forgot the industry paid me bonuses too... Life is good my friend. :) The beers are on Andrei  ;)

Carlsbergs are on me

____ wrote on Feb 29^th, 2012 at 2:14pm:

longweekend58 wrote on Feb 29th, 2012 at 1:00pm: ____ wrote on Feb 29th, 2012 at 12:38pm: Gliese 581 ~ Goldilocks zone  ~ has oil too Just have to created a drill that will reach that star system. Peak oil also relates to the cost of getting the stuff out and processed. i.e oilsand of canada. Which has already been successfuly dealt with. Dotry and keep up! No we haven't you just whipped it aside because it doesn't fit your argument. The cost of tar sand will push up oil prices in conjunction with peak oil pressures. Then their will be the carbon pollution price added to tar sand that will force oil prices up even further.

How do you make tar?

Maqqa wrote on Feb 29^th, 2012 at 3:52pm:

____ wrote on Feb 29th, 2012 at 2:14pm: longweekend58 wrote on Feb 29th, 2012 at 1:00pm: ____ wrote on Feb 29th, 2012 at 12:38pm: Gliese 581 ~ Goldilocks zone  ~ has oil too Just have to created a drill that will reach that star system. Peak oil also relates to the cost of getting the stuff out and processed. i.e oilsand of canada. Which has already been successfuly dealt with. Dotry and keep up! No we haven't you just whipped it aside because it doesn't fit your argument. The cost of tar sand will push up oil prices in conjunction with peak oil pressures. Then their will be the carbon pollution price added to tar sand that will force oil prices up even further. How do you make tar?

Take up smoking

Its amazing - the more they gripe about finite resources, the more they rip out of the earth and flog to us for a fortune in pricing and tax.  Shyte they should be paying us to use it - how dare they dig this stuff out of the earth and make us pay them for it? 8-) 8-) :P :P

Have fun Longy?

http://www.theoildrum.com/

http://www.ozpolitic.com/forum/YaBB.pl?num=1276908003/all

http://www.scitizen.com/cacheDirectory/HTMLcontributions/img/Conventional%20Oil%201.gif

Peak Oil 1 of 10
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=TDv2zGh-xck&feature=related

Peak Oil 2 of 10
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=Rm8LHpvFKgQ&feature=related

Peak Oil 3 of 10
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=LKD_D-WnJwo&feature=related

PeakOil - 4 of 10
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=YV2YlynvoeU&feature=related

Peak Oil 5 of 10
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=HEt7cpHyWzE&feature=related

Peak Oil 6 of 10
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=n4D7vh28q-I&feature=related

Peak Oil 7 of 10
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=vuU8Etbkjbo&feature=related

Peak Oil 8 of 10
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=doarAIRvDK8&feature=related

Peak Oil 9 of 10
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=F-iImIlA_dE&feature=related

Peak Oil 10 of 10
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=QQfdSXjeWuc&feature=related

Gist wrote on Feb 29^th, 2012 at 2:22pm:

longweekend58 wrote on Feb 29th, 2012 at 2:05pm: I never said oil reserves were infite and you know I didnt. I said that the known viable supplies are now about 10 times what they were and the power shift will be to north america which dramatically alters the politics of the world. So do try and actually read what I said. The current known viable supplies will probably last 200 years. thats a really massive change to 'we are going to run out of oil by 2025' or at one stage 1985! COMPRENDE? Ah! 10 times the reserves? At what price? You may not have noticed but the price of oil keeps rising. Probably because there's less of it left. Hell yes, it'll never run out, for sure. Because at some point whatever is left will be too friggin' expensive for anyone to buy! The Gina Rinehardts of this world will have tiny vials of the stuff to use as a dab-on perfume just to show how obscenely wealthy they are. So when do you want to call a switch to renewables? When petrol is $1.50 a litre? Or are you proposing we sit around scratching our arses until the price gets to $15 a litre and then maybe we'll think about it? $150 a litre? More?

you could always step out of character and actually READ the original article whcih answers all this.

perceptions_now wrote on Feb 29^th, 2012 at 4:45pm:

Have fun Longy? http://www.theoildrum.com/ http://www.ozpolitic.com/forum/YaBB.pl?num=1276908003/all http://www.scitizen.com/cacheDirectory/HTMLcontributions/img/Conventional%20Oil%201.gif Peak Oil 1 of 10 http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=TDv2zGh-xck&feature=related Peak Oil 2 of 10 http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=Rm8LHpvFKgQ&feature=related Peak Oil 3 of 10 http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=LKD_D-WnJwo&feature=related PeakOil - 4 of 10 http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=YV2YlynvoeU&feature=related Peak Oil 5 of 10 http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=HEt7cpHyWzE&feature=related Peak Oil 6 of 10 http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=n4D7vh28q-I&feature=related Peak Oil 7 of 10 http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=vuU8Etbkjbo&feature=related Peak Oil 8 of 10 http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=doarAIRvDK8&feature=related Peak Oil 9 of 10 http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=F-iImIlA_dE&feature=related Peak Oil 10 of 10 http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=QQfdSXjeWuc&feature=related

another person who cannot read the actual article.

longweekend58 wrote on Feb 29^th, 2012 at 5:53pm:

you could always step out of character and actually READ the original article whcih answers all this.

Really? Which bit explains to me how oil and gas will never run out? I don't see that bit. Can you highlight it for me?

Also, where do you live? Maybe you can volunteer your suburb as a nice spot to drive a well. And you haven't explained at what point you decide that fossil fuels are too expensive and its time to investigate alternatives. None of those are in the article either.

Gist wrote on Feb 29^th, 2012 at 6:31pm:

longweekend58 wrote on Feb 29th, 2012 at 5:53pm: you could always step out of character and actually READ the original article whcih answers all this. Really? Which bit explains to me how oil and gas will never run out? I don't see that bit. Can you highlight it for me? Also, where do you live? Maybe you can volunteer your suburb as a nice spot to drive a well. And you haven't explained at what point you decide that fossil fuels are too expensive and its time to investigate alternatives. None of those are in the article either.

well funny about that. it doesnt say oil wil never run out and neither did I. so you point is what exactly?

longweekend58 wrote on Feb 29^th, 2012 at 5:53pm:

perceptions_now wrote on Feb 29th, 2012 at 4:45pm: Have fun Longy? http://www.theoildrum.com/ http://www.ozpolitic.com/forum/YaBB.pl?num=1276908003/all http://www.scitizen.com/cacheDirectory/HTMLcontributions/img/Conventional%20Oil%201.gif Peak Oil 1 of 10 http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=TDv2zGh-xck&feature=related Peak Oil 2 of 10 http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=Rm8LHpvFKgQ&feature=related Peak Oil 3 of 10 http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=LKD_D-WnJwo&feature=related PeakOil - 4 of 10 http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=YV2YlynvoeU&feature=related Peak Oil 5 of 10 http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=HEt7cpHyWzE&feature=related Peak Oil 6 of 10 http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=n4D7vh28q-I&feature=related Peak Oil 7 of 10 http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=vuU8Etbkjbo&feature=related Peak Oil 8 of 10 http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=doarAIRvDK8&feature=related Peak Oil 9 of 10 http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=F-iImIlA_dE&feature=related Peak Oil 10 of 10 http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=QQfdSXjeWuc&feature=related another person who cannot read the actual article.

Unlike you LW, I did read what you posted and I have also read much more, both for & against!

yes clearly you dont understand. If you did you would understand that when modern techniques makes shale oil and tar sands oil extractable incommercial quantities that this gives us EIGHT times the current known woil reserves. And you dont think that this might actually change the PEAK OIL tipping point a little... like 150 years into the future??

longweekend58 wrote on Feb 29^th, 2012 at 7:05pm:

yes clearly you dont understand. If you did you would understand that when modern techniques makes shale oil and tar sands oil extractable incommercial quantities that this gives us EIGHT times the current known woil reserves. And you dont think that this might actually change the PEAK OIL tipping point a little... like 150 years into the future??

LW,
Try reading something else, besides those things you want to hear.

There is a lot of information out there, on these issues, a great deal of which disagrees with what you & this article, are saying!

--------------------------------------------------------------------------------

The death of peak oilAlan Kohler

Published 7:17 AM, 29 Feb 2012


--------------------------------------------------------------------------------

inShare


Here’s another structural transformation to add to all the others that you have to get your head around: it’s the transformation of global energy markets as a result of shale oil and gas.

We’ve already got the digital revolution and the switch from consumption to savings after the GFC, not to mention the rise of China and India. Now we have the death of peak oil.

For years we have assumed that fossil fuel reserves were running out, that peak oil production had occurred some time ago and that it was only a matter of time before the oil price rose to such heights that energy-dependent economies would be crushed, starting with the United States.

In a way these assumptions have helped underpin the movement against global warming (that is, we’ll have to give up oil anyway since it’s running out, so we might as well make the best of a bad lot and embrace electric cars and wind farms and save the planet from climate change while we’re at it).

In fact the existence of vast reserves of oil and gas in shale formations, mainly in the United States, combined with the return of the oil price to $US100 a barrel without, so far, causing a global recession, is producing a profound transformation of energy markets.

Forget declining oil, there is a new global oil rush. The US has an estimated 2 trillion barrels of shale oil reserves – about 70 per cent of the world’s total and eight times the oil reserves of Saudi Arabia. The gas reserves, in the US, Australia and elsewhere, are vast.

The cost of extracting shale oil ranges from $US95 per barrel down to $US12, although the process of fracking, where water is pumped in to break up the shale and release the oil, is very controversial – as highlighted on the ABC’s Foreign Correspondent program last night.

But where there’s oil there’s a way. BHP Billiton has paid $15 billion for shale oil and gas acreage, through its acquisition of Petrohawk, and now owns four large areas in Arkansas, Louisiana and Texas. The company is spending billions developing the project; its Haynesville project in Arkansas is already the largest shale play in the US, producing 6.5 billion cubic feet of gas per day.

There was an earlier shale energy rush in the 1980s, following the second oil shock, but it quickly collapsed with the oil price.

However, now the price is back to where it was in real terms, making it economic, and extraction technology has advanced enormously as well. It wasn’t until the late 1980s and early 1990s that the first commercial horizontal wells were successfully drilled and modern 'multi-stage' hydraulic fracturing (fracking) techniques did not emerge until ten years ago.

Production of shale gas in the US began to increase rapidly in 2010 thanks to advances in fracking technology. It has now been used in more than 1 million wells, and operators are currently fracturing about 35,000 wells a year.

It’s a remarkable process: the reserves are usually about five kilometres below the surface (much deeper than coal seam gas); wells are drilled down to them and then horizontally through them for another five or six kilometres; the horizontal part of the well is perforated by explosives and then fluid and sand are pumped down at high pressure to fracture the shale. The hydrocarbons then flow to the surface.

The opposition to this in the US is similar to the growing opposition to coal seam gas developments in Australia; whether any of the opponents get anywhere is a different matter, especially in the US.

The drive for self-sufficiency in oil and gas is very powerful indeed, and in pursuit of that there is a massive boom in shale energy development, leading to big fortunes being made in infrastructure and servicing, not to mention the energy itself.

Australia has relatively small shale oil reserves – here it’s more about coal seam methane. China has more shale energy reserves in total than the US but they're deeper and the geology is more difficult. There are big reserves in Poland and France, as well as Russia and the Congo in Africa.

But so far it’s all about the United States, which has the reserves and the largest market close by.

The importance of this for the world is hard to exaggerate. The distribution of energy on the planet is shifting: the stranglehold that Middle Eastern dictatorships have over the world’s energy supply is loosening and just as the rise of manufacturing in China shifted the world’s economic axis, so will the rise of shale energy in North America.

There will be a rapid substitution of coal by cleaner gas, especially as (or perhaps if) emissions trading schemes and carbon taxes spread.

It means renewable energy and nuclear will become less and less economic as the supply of gas increases, whether it’s from coal seams or shale. Gas is less carbon intensive than coal, but it still produces greenhouse gases, so it may be that the policy response to reduce global warming will actually have to increase if the world moves too far towards gas and away from renewables and nuclear.

If the United States could become self-sufficient in energy, its current account deficit would disappear and the US dollar would start rising again.

In fact, shale energy could be responsible for the resurgence of the United States as an economic superpower, with cheap local energy underpinning the second coming of its manufacturing industry as well as helping to balance its twin deficits – the current account and federal budget.

One thing is for sure: the world isn’t running out of oil and gas any more.

http://www.businessspectator.com.au/bs.nsf/Article/peak-oil-shale-gas-fracking-energy-nuclear-budget-pd20120229-RWR7C?opendocument&src=idp&utm_source=exact&utm_medium=email&utm_content=17865&utm_campaign=kgb&modapt=commentary

this should upset perceptions and lastnail

Yeh it's 150 years away that's why oil keeps going up in price. :D LOL

What a dreamer you are !!

Sir lastnail wrote on Feb 29^th, 2012 at 6:04pm:

Yeh it's a150 years away that's why it keeps going up in price. :D LOL What a dreamer you are !!

the point was to demolish your constrant harping that we are running out of oile when apparently, we haev two centuries left. and that's just on todays knowledge.

and the price of oil is LESS than it was 3 years ago.

longweekend58 wrote on Feb 29^th, 2012 at 6:23pm:

Sir lastnail wrote on Feb 29th, 2012 at 6:04pm: Yeh it's a150 years away that's why it keeps going up in price. :D LOL What a dreamer you are !! the point was to demolish your constrant harping that we are running out of oile when apparently, we haev two centuries left. and that's just on todays knowledge. and the price of oil is LESS than it was 3 years ago.

but the price at the fool bowser is ???? It's not getting cheaper is it ;) Prices are set to spike to $1. 70 within weeks :D LOL

Dream on sunshine !!

Quote:

In fact, shale energy could be responsible for the resurgence of the United States as an economic superpower, with cheap local energy underpinning the second coming of its manufacturing industry as well as helping to balance its twin deficits – the current account and federal budget.

I doubt the cost of energy is the driving force in the US's relative decline.


Quote:

Yeh it's 150 years away that's why oil keeps going up in price.

Not exactly. Ice cream keeps going up in price, but that does not mean we are running out of it. It only just reached the same real price as the first oil shock - which was decades ago.

freediver wrote on Feb 29^th, 2012 at 6:44pm:

Quote: In fact, shale energy could be responsible for the resurgence of the United States as an economic superpower, with cheap local energy underpinning the second coming of its manufacturing industry as well as helping to balance its twin deficits – the current account and federal budget. I doubt the cost of energy is the driving force in the US's relative decline. [quote]Yeh it's 150 years away that's why oil keeps going up in price.

Not exactly. Ice cream keeps going up in price, but that does not mean we are running out of it. It only just reached the same real price as the first oil shock - which was decades ago.[/quote]

no one is saying it is. but going from being and oil importer to a major exporter is going to make a massive difference to the country's economy. it will also change the worlds political balance with the M/E being mved to less important and countries liek Iran losing almost all of their export revenue.

Sir lastnail wrote on Feb 29^th, 2012 at 6:27pm:

longweekend58 wrote on Feb 29th, 2012 at 6:23pm: Sir lastnail wrote on Feb 29th, 2012 at 6:04pm: Yeh it's a150 years away that's why it keeps going up in price. :D LOL What a dreamer you are !! the point was to demolish your constrant harping that we are running out of oile when apparently, we haev two centuries left. and that's just on todays knowledge. and the price of oil is LESS than it was 3 years ago. but the price at the fool bowser is ???? It's not getting cheaper is it ;) Prices are set to spike to $1. 70 within weeks :D LOL Dream on sunshine !!

and yet no one is really complaining - except you. you do realise that we were paying MORE than that some 6 years ago? Do you even realise that over a 25 year average, petrol has risen by LESS than the CPI?

no, of course you dont. you just want your battery-powered toy car to play with. no-one is stopping youi buying any one of the selections CURRENTLY available. but you are all talk.

longweekend58 wrote on Feb 29^th, 2012 at 6:52pm:

Sir lastnail wrote on Feb 29th, 2012 at 6:27pm: longweekend58 wrote on Feb 29th, 2012 at 6:23pm: Sir lastnail wrote on Feb 29th, 2012 at 6:04pm: Yeh it's a150 years away that's why it keeps going up in price. :D LOL What a dreamer you are !! the point was to demolish your constrant harping that we are running out of oile when apparently, we haev two centuries left. and that's just on todays knowledge. and the price of oil is LESS than it was 3 years ago. but the price at the fool bowser is ???? It's not getting cheaper is it ;) Prices are set to spike to $1. 70 within weeks :D LOL Dream on sunshine !! and yet no one is really complaining - except you. you do realise that we were paying MORE than that some 6 years ago? Do you even realise that over a 25 year average, petrol has risen by LESS than the CPI? no, of course you dont. you just want your battery-powered toy car to play with. no-one is stopping youi buying any one of the selections CURRENTLY available. but you are all talk.

Isn't it funny how you are totally obsessed with the relative cost of renewables but when it comes to the cost at the fool bowser the economics is never a factor :D :D :D LOL

freediver wrote on Feb 29^th, 2012 at 6:44pm:

Quote: In fact, shale energy could be responsible for the resurgence of the United States as an economic superpower, with cheap local energy underpinning the second coming of its manufacturing industry as well as helping to balance its twin deficits – the current account and federal budget. I doubt the cost of energy is the driving force in the US's relative decline. [quote]Yeh it's 150 years away that's why oil keeps going up in price.

Not exactly. Ice cream keeps going up in price, but that does not mean we are running out of it. It only just reached the same real price as the first oil shock - which was decades ago.[/quote]

It's simple supply and demand economics. The world population keeps increasing so demand increases and supply decreases simply because it's a finite resource. You have a double whammy !!

Price is going up due to the demand increases of grow in 3rd world  countries  like India. Also, you have to wonder why the Howard government wasted taxpayers  money  on the investment in Ethanol  dont you?

Sir lastnail wrote on Feb 29^th, 2012 at 9:15pm:

freediver wrote on Feb 29th, 2012 at 6:44pm: Quote: In fact, shale energy could be responsible for the resurgence of the United States as an economic superpower, with cheap local energy underpinning the second coming of its manufacturing industry as well as helping to balance its twin deficits – the current account and federal budget. I doubt the cost of energy is the driving force in the US's relative decline. [quote]Yeh it's 150 years away that's why oil keeps going up in price. Not exactly. Ice cream keeps going up in price, but that does not mean we are running out of it. It only just reached the same real price as the first oil shock - which was decades ago.

It's simple supply and demand economics. The world population keeps increasing so demand increases and supply decreases simply because it's a finite resource. You have a double whammy !!
[/quote]


So why has the real price dropped steadily since the invention of the automobile?

The last 11 Posts were moved here from General Board by perceptions_now.

freediver wrote on Feb 29^th, 2012 at 9:38pm:

Sir lastnail wrote on Feb 29th, 2012 at 9:15pm: freediver wrote on Feb 29th, 2012 at 6:44pm: Quote: In fact, shale energy could be responsible for the resurgence of the United States as an economic superpower, with cheap local energy underpinning the second coming of its manufacturing industry as well as helping to balance its twin deficits – the current account and federal budget. I doubt the cost of energy is the driving force in the US's relative decline. [quote]Yeh it's 150 years away that's why oil keeps going up in price. Not exactly. Ice cream keeps going up in price, but that does not mean we are running out of it. It only just reached the same real price as the first oil shock - which was decades ago. It's simple supply and demand economics. The world population keeps increasing so demand increases and supply decreases simply because it's a finite resource. You have a double whammy !!

So why has the real price dropped steadily since the invention of the automobile?[/quote]

All I know is you won't ever see 60 cents per liter again ;)

Gist wrote on Feb 29^th, 2012 at 6:31pm:

longweekend58 wrote on Feb 29th, 2012 at 5:53pm: you could always step out of character and actually READ the original article whcih answers all this. Really? Which bit explains to me how oil and gas will never run out? I don't see that bit. Can you highlight it for me? Also, where do you live? Maybe you can volunteer your suburb as a nice spot to drive a well. And you haven't explained at what point you decide that fossil fuels are too expensive and its time to investigate alternatives. None of those are in the article either.

with badweekend fossil fools can never be expensive. Even at 10 bucks per liter it's still economic for badweekend to fill up his V8 gas guzzler :D LOL

But when it comes to renewables they are always expensive to badweekend no matter how expensive fossil fools are :D LOL

WHAT IS YOU PROBLEM PINHEAD???

you have posted about 5000 popsts on peak oil - all of them wrong - and now you repeatedly move MY Threads because SHOCK HORROR they disagree with your bigoted opinion???

No one has ever accused you of intelligence but at least we can now add HYPOCRITE to the list of attributes.

you dont think a massive change in the distribution of fossil fule energy isnt a POLITICAL ISSUE???

you are a jerk pinhead.

longweekend58 wrote on Mar 1^st, 2012 at 12:15pm:

WHAT IS YOU PROBLEM PINHEAD??? you have posted about 5000 popsts on peak oil - all of them wrong - and now you repeatedly move MY Threads because SHOCK HORROR they disagree with your bigoted opinion??? No one has ever accused you of intelligence but at least we can now add HYPOCRITE to the list of attributes. you dont think a massive change in the distribution of fossil fule energy isnt a POLITICAL ISSUE??? you are a jerk pinhead.

I moved one thread on Peak Oil, from the Political section, to Thinking Globally, because it wasn't relevant to Politics.

And, I amalgamated a second Peak Oil thread you started in the General section, to your original thread, because it was on the same thing.


You have a nice day now, ya hear!

longweekend58 wrote on Mar 1^st, 2012 at 12:15pm:

WHAT IS YOU PROBLEM PINHEAD??? you have posted about 5000 popsts on peak oil - all of them wrong - and now you repeatedly move MY Threads because SHOCK HORROR they disagree with your bigoted opinion??? No one has ever accused you of intelligence but at least we can now add HYPOCRITE to the list of attributes. you dont think a massive change in the distribution of fossil fule energy isnt a POLITICAL ISSUE??? you are a jerk pinhead.

LOL :D :D :D :D

All your posts are just straw man fallacies. Just like your BS thread on horse manure building up in the streets :D LOL

perceptions_now wrote on Mar 1^st, 2012 at 12:26pm:

longweekend58 wrote on Mar 1st, 2012 at 12:15pm: WHAT IS YOU PROBLEM PINHEAD??? you have posted about 5000 popsts on peak oil - all of them wrong - and now you repeatedly move MY Threads because SHOCK HORROR they disagree with your bigoted opinion??? No one has ever accused you of intelligence but at least we can now add HYPOCRITE to the list of attributes. you dont think a massive change in the distribution of fossil fule energy isnt a POLITICAL ISSUE??? you are a jerk pinhead. I moved one thread on Peak Oil, from the Political section, to Thinking Globally, because it wasn't relevant to Politics. And, I amalgamated a second Peak Oil thread you started in the General section, to your original thread, because it was on the same thing. You have a nice day now, ya hear!

then keep in mind next time you decide to post your fact-free moronic crap on peak oil that it doesnt belong in poltiics... DESPITE thet fact that oil has far more to do with politics than virtually everything else.


and in the meantime DRAH runs rampant on the boards spreading garbage and nonsense and you do the very best you can do - nothing.


Frankly. your understanding of global dynamics is truly lame. FD picked a PERFECT mod. you are as useless as the rest of them...

Sir lastnail wrote on Mar 1^st, 2012 at 12:33pm:

longweekend58 wrote on Mar 1st, 2012 at 12:15pm: WHAT IS YOU PROBLEM PINHEAD??? you have posted about 5000 popsts on peak oil - all of them wrong - and now you repeatedly move MY Threads because SHOCK HORROR they disagree with your bigoted opinion??? No one has ever accused you of intelligence but at least we can now add HYPOCRITE to the list of attributes. you dont think a massive change in the distribution of fossil fule energy isnt a POLITICAL ISSUE??? you are a jerk pinhead. LOL :D :D :D :D All your posts are just straw man fallacies. Just like your BS thread on horse manure building up in the streets :D LOL

yes of course... it was only a QUOTE FROM AN ACTUAL NEWPAPER ARTICLE AT THE TIME.

dont let the facts get in your way. loser.

longweekend58 wrote on Mar 1^st, 2012 at 4:10pm:

Sir lastnail wrote on Mar 1st, 2012 at 12:33pm: longweekend58 wrote on Mar 1st, 2012 at 12:15pm: WHAT IS YOU PROBLEM PINHEAD??? you have posted about 5000 popsts on peak oil - all of them wrong - and now you repeatedly move MY Threads because SHOCK HORROR they disagree with your bigoted opinion??? No one has ever accused you of intelligence but at least we can now add HYPOCRITE to the list of attributes. you dont think a massive change in the distribution of fossil fule energy isnt a POLITICAL ISSUE??? you are a jerk pinhead. LOL :D :D :D :D All your posts are just straw man fallacies. Just like your BS thread on horse manure building up in the streets :D LOL yes of course... it was only a QUOTE FROM AN ACTUAL NEWPAPER ARTICLE AT THE TIME. dont let the facts get in your way. loser.

it wasn't a fact. It was just someones opinion that you misconstrued as a fact because you are a small minded idiot :D LOL

longweekend58 wrote on Mar 1^st, 2012 at 4:09pm:

perceptions_now wrote on Mar 1st, 2012 at 12:26pm: longweekend58 wrote on Mar 1st, 2012 at 12:15pm: WHAT IS YOU PROBLEM PINHEAD??? you have posted about 5000 popsts on peak oil - all of them wrong - and now you repeatedly move MY Threads because SHOCK HORROR they disagree with your bigoted opinion??? No one has ever accused you of intelligence but at least we can now add HYPOCRITE to the list of attributes. you dont think a massive change in the distribution of fossil fule energy isnt a POLITICAL ISSUE??? you are a jerk pinhead. I moved one thread on Peak Oil, from the Political section, to Thinking Globally, because it wasn't relevant to Politics. And, I amalgamated a second Peak Oil thread you started in the General section, to your original thread, because it was on the same thing. You have a nice day now, ya hear! then keep in mind next time you decide to post your fact-free moronic crap on peak oil that it doesnt belong in poltiics... DESPITE thet fact that oil has far more to do with politics than virtually everything else. and in the meantime DRAH runs rampant on the boards spreading garbage and nonsense and you do the very best you can do - nothing. Frankly. your understanding of global dynamics is truly lame. FD picked a PERFECT mod. you are as useless as the rest of them...

and you are a great example of a mod are you :D LOL

Longweekend & being a mod.

---

Sir lastnail wrote on Mar 1^st, 2012 at 10:21am:

freediver wrote on Feb 29th, 2012 at 9:38pm: Sir lastnail wrote on Feb 29th, 2012 at 9:15pm: freediver wrote on Feb 29th, 2012 at 6:44pm: Quote: In fact, shale energy could be responsible for the resurgence of the United States as an economic superpower, with cheap local energy underpinning the second coming of its manufacturing industry as well as helping to balance its twin deficits – the current account and federal budget. I doubt the cost of energy is the driving force in the US's relative decline. [quote]Yeh it's 150 years away that's why oil keeps going up in price. Not exactly. Ice cream keeps going up in price, but that does not mean we are running out of it. It only just reached the same real price as the first oil shock - which was decades ago. It's simple supply and demand economics. The world population keeps increasing so demand increases and supply decreases simply because it's a finite resource. You have a double whammy !! So why has the real price dropped steadily since the invention of the automobile?

All I know is you won't ever see 60 cents per liter again ;)[/quote]

I won't see fancy ice creams for 20c each either. How is this relevant? Is your entire position based on failure to understand inflation?

freediver wrote on Mar 1^st, 2012 at 9:08pm:

Sir lastnail wrote on Mar 1st, 2012 at 10:21am: freediver wrote on Feb 29th, 2012 at 9:38pm: Sir lastnail wrote on Feb 29th, 2012 at 9:15pm: freediver wrote on Feb 29th, 2012 at 6:44pm: Quote: In fact, shale energy could be responsible for the resurgence of the United States as an economic superpower, with cheap local energy underpinning the second coming of its manufacturing industry as well as helping to balance its twin deficits – the current account and federal budget. I doubt the cost of energy is the driving force in the US's relative decline. [quote]Yeh it's 150 years away that's why oil keeps going up in price. Not exactly. Ice cream keeps going up in price, but that does not mean we are running out of it. It only just reached the same real price as the first oil shock - which was decades ago. It's simple supply and demand economics. The world population keeps increasing so demand increases and supply decreases simply because it's a finite resource. You have a double whammy !! So why has the real price dropped steadily since the invention of the automobile? All I know is you won't ever see 60 cents per liter again ;)

I won't see fancy ice creams for 20c each either. How is this relevant? Is your entire position based on failure to understand inflation?[/quote]

so the price increases at the fool bowser are all based on inflation ?? Some how I don't think so ;)

All I know is the price at the fool bowser is heading upwards whilst the cost of renewables is heading downwards ;) No one makes payments to the sun god do they ??

freediver wrote on Mar 1^st, 2012 at 9:08pm:

Sir lastnail wrote on Mar 1st, 2012 at 10:21am: freediver wrote on Feb 29th, 2012 at 9:38pm: Sir lastnail wrote on Feb 29th, 2012 at 9:15pm: freediver wrote on Feb 29th, 2012 at 6:44pm: Quote: In fact, shale energy could be responsible for the resurgence of the United States as an economic superpower, with cheap local energy underpinning the second coming of its manufacturing industry as well as helping to balance its twin deficits – the current account and federal budget. I doubt the cost of energy is the driving force in the US's relative decline. [quote]Yeh it's 150 years away that's why oil keeps going up in price. Not exactly. Ice cream keeps going up in price, but that does not mean we are running out of it. It only just reached the same real price as the first oil shock - which was decades ago. It's simple supply and demand economics. The world population keeps increasing so demand increases and supply decreases simply because it's a finite resource. You have a double whammy !! So why has the real price dropped steadily since the invention of the automobile? All I know is you won't ever see 60 cents per liter again ;)

I won't see fancy ice creams for 20c each either. How is this relevant? Is your entire position based on failure to understand inflation?[/quote]

so the price increases at the fool bowser are all based on inflation ?? Some how I don't think so ;)

All I know is the price at the fool bowser is heading upwards whilst the cost of renewables is heading downwards ;) No one has to make payments to the sun god do they ??

freediver wrote on Mar 1^st, 2012 at 9:08pm:

Sir lastnail wrote on Mar 1st, 2012 at 10:21am: freediver wrote on Feb 29th, 2012 at 9:38pm: Sir lastnail wrote on Feb 29th, 2012 at 9:15pm: freediver wrote on Feb 29th, 2012 at 6:44pm: Quote: In fact, shale energy could be responsible for the resurgence of the United States as an economic superpower, with cheap local energy underpinning the second coming of its manufacturing industry as well as helping to balance its twin deficits – the current account and federal budget. I doubt the cost of energy is the driving force in the US's relative decline. [quote]Yeh it's 150 years away that's why oil keeps going up in price. Not exactly. Ice cream keeps going up in price, but that does not mean we are running out of it. It only just reached the same real price as the first oil shock - which was decades ago. It's simple supply and demand economics. The world population keeps increasing so demand increases and supply decreases simply because it's a finite resource. You have a double whammy !! So why has the real price dropped steadily since the invention of the automobile? All I know is you won't ever see 60 cents per liter again ;)

I won't see fancy ice creams for 20c each either. How is this relevant? Is your entire position based on failure to understand inflation?[/quote]

You may like to elaborate your position here FD?

How do you see inflation impacting the Price of Oil P/barrel & Petrol P/litre & vice versa, over the last decade, currently & over the next decade?

And Longy, you may as well have your 2 cents worth, on a similar impact, but in respect of Oil Shale OR Shale Oil?

All the long term price increase is attributable to inflation. In real terms the price of fuel has nearly always trended down.

The real reason people get so wound up about the price of fuel is because the numbers are plastered beside the road in huge letters everywhere. If they posted the current Dow Jones index instead people would suddenly start thinking it was the end of the world every time that went up or down.

freediver wrote on Mar 2^nd, 2012 at 8:03pm:

All the long term price increase is attributable to inflation. In real terms the price of fuel has nearly always trended down. The real reason people get so wound up about the price of fuel is because the numbers are plastered beside the road in huge letters everywhere. If they posted the current Dow Jones index instead people would suddenly start thinking it was the end of the world every time that went up or down.

And the last decade, currently & over the next decade?

EROI
Reported EROIs (energy return on investments) are generally in the range of 1.5:1 to 4:1, with a few extreme values between 7:1 and 13:1.

CONCLUSION
In conclusion, although shale oils represent a huge potential resource they have a history of “always a bridesmaid and never a bride” because as prices for oil increase the prices for extracting shale oil have increased as well. This history represents the very real problems of generating a useful product from the resource.

Link
http://www.theoildrum.com/node/3839
=================================
The fact is that it takes almost as much Energy to produce a barrel of Shale Oil, as it generates when it is used, unlike Crude Oil which early on had an EROI ratio of about 100/1!

In short, it is almost an Energy sink hole!

That said, as Crude Oil Production Production continues to Decline over the next few decades, it is almost a given that "unconventional Oil", such as Shale Oil & Oil Sands will come to the fore.

However, given the processes involved, it is certain that the Production of this "unconventional Oil" will be at a greatly increased Price & at a continuing reduction in availability as Crude Oil goes into terminal Decline, with the outcome being a drastic lowering of Economic activity & Growth!

Chris Martenson On The Reality Of Peak Oil

http://3blmedia.com/theCSRfeed/Chris-Martenson-Reality-Peak-Oil

perceptions_now wrote on Mar 2^nd, 2012 at 11:02pm:

freediver wrote on Mar 2nd, 2012 at 8:03pm: All the long term price increase is attributable to inflation. In real terms the price of fuel has nearly always trended down. The real reason people get so wound up about the price of fuel is because the numbers are plastered beside the road in huge letters everywhere. If they posted the current Dow Jones index instead people would suddenly start thinking it was the end of the world every time that went up or down. And the last decade, currently & over the next decade?

I'd say that it's only true over the last few years. The retail price of petrol no longer tracks the price of crude oil. I used to graph it for a while. It's based on the Singapore benchmark, and that is  dependent on what the market will stand.It's inflation based.  If less people buy petrol, the price will go down. The growing middle class in China is buying more petrol.

I just re-read FD's post and have no argument with the point he makes wrt the cost of living.

Food for thought -

1) Inflation is a rise in the general level of prices of goods and services in an economy over a period of time.

2) Inflation @ an average of 3.5% Annually
Jan-01      100.00%
2002      103.50%
2003      107.12%
2004      110.87%
2005      114.75%
2006      118.77%
2007      122.93%
2008      127.22%
2009      131.68%
2010      136.20%
2011      141.06%
Jan-12      146.00%

3) Brent Crude      Brent Peaks      

Jan-99 $10.95
2000    $25.22
2001    $25.64
2002    $19.48            
2003    $31.29
2004    $31.18
2005    $44.28
2006    $63.57
2007    $54.30
2008    $91.92       $133.90      Jul-08
2009    $44.86
2010    $76.37
2011    $96.29       $123.15      Apr-11
Jan-12 $110.99    $126.20      1/03/2012
           
4) Petrol Prices will vary according to where and what you buy, but the following are interesting starting points, in WA -
Jan-1999    $0.60
Jan-2001    $0.80
Jul-08        $1.60
Apr-11        $1.20
1/03/2012 $1.50

In short, what is going on is not related to general inflation, but there are specific issues relevant to Energy Production & Consumption AND the the Local & Global Economy!

Btw, IF anyone knows of a website with Australian average Petrol Prices, go back a decade OR MORE, could you please advise me, so I can properly fill in the petrol pricing gaps.

Thanks, in advance!
     
           
           
           
           

           
           

freediver wrote on Mar 2^nd, 2012 at 8:03pm:

All the long term price increase is attributable to inflation. In real terms the price of fuel has nearly always trended down. The real reason people get so wound up about the price of fuel is because the numbers are plastered beside the road in huge letters everywhere. If they posted the current Dow Jones index instead people would suddenly start thinking it was the end of the world every time that went up or down.

Well you don't exactly put the Dow Jones in your fuel tank so that's a silly analogy !!

More food for thought
The following US chart, which shows -
1) A closer correlation between Crude Oil (WTi) Costs & the cost at the Petrol pump.

2) That US Petrol costs are significantly less than what is offered up, in OZ & in Europe.
The Australian cost per litre now being around OZ$1.50.
European consumers may be paying around OZ$2.00.
But the US Consumer is only paying around a OZ$1.00 a litre and is not a happy camper!

http://static.seekingalpha.com/uploads/2012/3/4/saupload_gas-buddy-2012-3-2_thumb1.jpg
http://seekingalpha.com/article/409161-gasoline-price-increases-prelude-to-the-next-recession?source=email_the_daily_dispatch&ifp=0

Quote:

In fact, shale energy could be responsible for the resurgence of the United States as an economic superpower, with cheap local energy underpinning the second coming of its manufacturing industry as well as helping to balance its twin deficits – the current account and federal budget. One thing is for sure: the world isn’t running out of oil and gas any more. this should upset perceptions and lastnail

I wonder, it doesn't upset me much, I'm resigned to the fact of idiocy in most places high and low. There is the poo, there is the fan, and there are all the people saying it will never happen.

All the long term price increase is attributable to inflation. In real terms the price of fuel has nearly always trended down.

Quote:

The real reason people get so wound up about the price of fuel is because the numbers are plastered beside the road in huge letters everywhere. If they posted the current Dow Jones index instead people would suddenly start thinking it was the end of the world every time that went up or down.

The resource is finite, (agreed :D ) The price is trending down, (in the wonderful world of freediver), the consumption is trending up, (exponentially).

Are you saying she'll be right Einstein? Is this what your grasp of economics is telling you?

You stay up late Grey, 2.25am post yet! Have to dub you Midenight Starvation.  Not burning the midnight oil are you? - really can't afford to burn oil at that rate. (You can take a joke right?)

red baron wrote on Mar 5^th, 2012 at 8:49am:

You stay up late Grey, 2.25am post yet! Have to dub you Midenight Starvation.  Not burning the midnight oil are you? - really can't afford to burn oil at that rate. (You can take a joke right?)

You may have been closer than you think?

However, as you come from Germany, you may not have realised that there are different time zones in the land of OZ? The land of OZ is a lot bigger than Germany!

So, whilst it may have been 2.25am in one time zone, it might have been 3.25am in another or it may have only been 12.25am in another time zone?

Thus, your comment of "burning the midnight oil", may have been closer than you thought?

Btw, you can take a joke right?

Absoluetly now - too right I can, when are you going to crack one? For funny material please check Uncle Meat's posts for a 'how to' guide.

red baron wrote on Mar 6^th, 2012 at 9:05am:

Absoluetly now - too right I can, when are you going to crack one? For funny material please check Uncle Meat's posts for a 'how to' guide.

Well, according to Longweakend, ALL of my posts are a joke, so I must be pretty funny?

Btw Longy, you started this thread & then ran, as soon as any solid information got posted.

Was that the extent of your knowledge on the issue, one post from a journalist?

So, can someone tell me WHY oil is a finite resource? The same processes that formed it in the past are still operating today. makes the term bio-fuel a bit silly really, it's ALL bio-fuel.

As a geologist i always wonder why nobodies worried about us reaching peak gold? Hell, we've been mining that heaps longer than we've been extracting oil...Would someone please start a panic about that? I would love to increase my already exorbident rates on the back of a supercharged mining boom....

Also, theres a massive difference between the term reserve and resource, one is an economic term and the other isn't.
the whole agument of peak oil seems simple at first, however it just isn't. As the price rises, so the reserves increase (as resources become reserves) previously untenable sources (resources)now become economic (reserves). also, the relationship is logarithmic...not linear.

So peak Oil? at what price per barrel peak oil are you talking about?

topend geo wrote on Mar 6^th, 2012 at 11:58pm:

So, can someone tell me WHY oil is a finite resource? The same processes that formed it in the past are still operating today. makes the term bio-fuel a bit silly really, it's ALL bio-fuel. As a geologist i always wonder why nobodies worried about us reaching peak gold? Hell, we've been mining that heaps longer than we've been extracting oil...Would someone please start a panic about that? I would love to increase my already exorbident rates on the back of a supercharged mining boom.... Also, theres a massive difference between the term reserve and resource, one is an economic term and the other isn't. the whole agument of peak oil seems simple at first, however it just isn't. As the price rises, so the reserves increase (as resources become reserves) previously untenable sources (resources)now become economic (reserves). also, the relationship is logarithmic...not linear. So peak Oil? at what price per barrel peak oil are you talking about?

A few observations -
1) As a geologist, you would be aware of the time frames, to "create Oil from natural processes", is hundreds of thousands of years.
2) Depending on who you believe, we have already Consumed over half of the worlds Reserves of Conventional Oil, in around 150 years.
3) A large portion of the worlds Conventional Oil Reserves are supposedly based in OPEC countries and  those countries all arbitrarily increased their Reserves during the 1980's, purely because of jockeying for position on "export quotas".    
4) Gold doesn't fuel the Global Economy, Oil does!
5) The Price of a barrel of Oil is Dependent on many things, but as time rolls forward, I expect there will be an initial Decline in the price of a barrel to perhaps US$60-70, because of a Global Economic slowdown, but then it will rise due to the constraints of Peak Oil to US$300, $500, $1,000 & upwards.

perceptions_now wrote on Mar 7^th, 2012 at 8:36am:

topend geo wrote on Mar 6th, 2012 at 11:58pm: So, can someone tell me WHY oil is a finite resource? The same processes that formed it in the past are still operating today. makes the term bio-fuel a bit silly really, it's ALL bio-fuel. As a geologist i always wonder why nobodies worried about us reaching peak gold? Hell, we've been mining that heaps longer than we've been extracting oil...Would someone please start a panic about that? I would love to increase my already exorbident rates on the back of a supercharged mining boom.... Also, theres a massive difference between the term reserve and resource, one is an economic term and the other isn't. the whole agument of peak oil seems simple at first, however it just isn't. As the price rises, so the reserves increase (as resources become reserves) previously untenable sources (resources)now become economic (reserves). also, the relationship is logarithmic...not linear. So peak Oil? at what price per barrel peak oil are you talking about? A few observations - 1) As a geologist, you would be aware of the time frames, to "create Oil from natural processes", is hundreds of thousands of years. Um, does it? Nope sorry, you are incorrect, it's a common held misconception. 2) Depending on who you believe, we have already Consumed over half of the worlds Reserves of Conventional Oil, in around 150 years. the term "reserves" is meaningless without quoting a price per barrel at which this was calcutated. 3) A large portion of the worlds Conventional Oil Reserves are supposedly based in OPEC countries and  those countries all arbitrarily increased their Reserves during the 1980's, purely because of jockeying for position on "export quotas". Prove it. You can't, thats speculation.     4) Gold doesn't fuel the Global Economy, Oil does! so? how does that change the argument that quoting a peak oil point is as meaningless as quoting a peak gold one? 5) The Price of a barrel of Oil is Dependent on many things, but as time rolls forward, I expect there will be an initial Decline in the price of a barrel to perhaps US$60-70, because of a Global Economic slowdown, but then it will rise due to the constraints of Peak Oil to US$300, $500, $1,000 & upwards.

:D $1000 a barrel!! you do know it can be synthesized in a lab for a heap less than that don't you?

topend geo wrote on Mar 8^th, 2012 at 9:57am:

perceptions_now wrote on Mar 7th, 2012 at 8:36am: topend geo wrote on Mar 6th, 2012 at 11:58pm: So, can someone tell me WHY oil is a finite resource? The same processes that formed it in the past are still operating today. makes the term bio-fuel a bit silly really, it's ALL bio-fuel. As a geologist i always wonder why nobodies worried about us reaching peak gold? Hell, we've been mining that heaps longer than we've been extracting oil...Would someone please start a panic about that? I would love to increase my already exorbident rates on the back of a supercharged mining boom.... Also, theres a massive difference between the term reserve and resource, one is an economic term and the other isn't. the whole agument of peak oil seems simple at first, however it just isn't. As the price rises, so the reserves increase (as resources become reserves) previously untenable sources (resources)now become economic (reserves). also, the relationship is logarithmic...not linear. So peak Oil? at what price per barrel peak oil are you talking about? A few observations - 1) As a geologist, you would be aware of the time frames, to "create Oil from natural processes", is hundreds of thousands of years. Um, does it? Nope sorry, you are incorrect, it's a common held misconception. 2) Depending on who you believe, we have already Consumed over half of the worlds Reserves of Conventional Oil, in around 150 years. the term "reserves" is meaningless without quoting a price per barrel at which this was calcutated. 3) A large portion of the worlds Conventional Oil Reserves are supposedly based in OPEC countries and  those countries all arbitrarily increased their Reserves during the 1980's, purely because of jockeying for position on "export quotas". Prove it. You can't, thats speculation.     4) Gold doesn't fuel the Global Economy, Oil does! so? how does that change the argument that quoting a peak oil point is as meaningless as quoting a peak gold one? 5) The Price of a barrel of Oil is Dependent on many things, but as time rolls forward, I expect there will be an initial Decline in the price of a barrel to perhaps US$60-70, because of a Global Economic slowdown, but then it will rise due to the constraints of Peak Oil to US$300, $500, $1,000 & upwards. :D $1000 a barrel!! you do know it can be synthesized in a lab for a heap less than that don't you?

As I said, as time rolls forward, you can expect those sort of Prices!

That said, even now when you could get non conventional oil from various sources for a lot less than $500 or $1,000 a barrel, there are at least 2 major problems -
1) EROI makes many of these processes into an Energy sink.
In other words, it takes nearly as much Energy to produce a barrel of oil, as that barrel of Oil will generate in Energy.
There is therefore, little or no spare capacity of Energy, with which to run a Local or Global Economy, let alone the 100/1 returns that were generated earlier on, by "natural" Crude Oil!

2) Try "manufacturing" even a 10-20% shortfall in Oil and you would see what enormous problems arise.

If that wasn't daunting enough, then try manufacturing a 40-50% shortfall of say 85 Billion barrels (which will happen), which is about the current annual Global Consumption and you would quickly come to the conclusion that IT WILL NEVER HAPPEN!

No, thats incorrect
The Germans manufactured High-octane fuel all throuout the latter part of WW-2. It's old proven technology it's not the energy budget that throws it, it's the economic budget...it's so darn cheap to produce oil in the conventional manner that alternatives cant compete.. @ $1000 a barrel, I quit Geology and start making on my block.

topend geo wrote on Mar 8^th, 2012 at 11:24am:

No, thats incorrect The Germans manufactured High-octane fuel all throuout the latter part of WW-2. It's old proven technology it's not the energy budget that throws it, it's the economic budget...it's so darn cheap to produce oil in the conventional manner that alternatives cant compete.. @ $1000 a barrel, I quit Geology and start making on my block.

Yes, I am correct!

And Yes, I am aware of the German history!

However,  they didn't have to worry about whether the EROI was Economic, they just had to have the Oil for the war.

This is also a chalk & cheese comparison, because at their peak the Germans were producing around 30-35 MILLION barrels a year and the current Global Consumption is around 85 BILLION, with rising expectations.

Those expectations will not be met!

Btw, were you also saying that the following were incorrect?

1) As a geologist, you would be aware of the time frames, to "create Oil from natural processes", is hundreds of thousands of years.
2) Depending on who you believe, we have already Consumed over half of the worlds Reserves of Conventional Oil, in around 150 years.
3) A large portion of the worlds Conventional Oil Reserves are supposedly based in OPEC countries and  those countries all arbitrarily increased their Reserves during the 1980's, purely because of jockeying for position on "export quotas".   
4) Gold doesn't fuel the Global Economy, Oil does!

If so, how?

No, your wrong
http://www.answersingenesis.org/articles/cm/v12/n2/oil

topend geo wrote on Mar 8^th, 2012 at 3:44pm:

No, your wrong http://www.answersingenesis.org/articles/cm/v12/n2/oil

None of which disagrees with what I have said -
1) As a geologist, you would be aware of the time frames, to "create Oil from natural processes", is hundreds of thousands of years.
2) Depending on who you believe, we have already Consumed over half of the worlds Reserves of Conventional Oil, in around 150 years.
3) A large portion of the worlds Conventional Oil Reserves are supposedly based in OPEC countries and  those countries all arbitrarily increased their Reserves during the 1980's, purely because of jockeying for position on "export quotas".   
4) Gold doesn't fuel the Global Economy, Oil does!

&
1) EROI makes many of these processes into an Energy sink.
In other words, it takes nearly as much Energy to produce a barrel of oil, as that barrel of Oil will generate in Energy.
There is therefore, little or no spare capacity of Energy, with which to run a Local or Global Economy, let alone the 100/1 returns that were generated earlier on, by "natural" Crude Oil!

2) Try "manufacturing" even a 10-20% shortfall in Oil and you would see what enormous problems arise.

If that wasn't daunting enough, then try manufacturing a 40-50% shortfall of say 85 Billion barrels (which will happen), which is about the current annual Global Consumption and you would quickly come to the conclusion that IT WILL NEVER HAPPEN!

Dude, you just keep posting the same thing over and over...

1)No, as a Geologist I believe that observable natural processes that can be replicated in a lab are a pretty good indication of reality. Like it or not, Oil is actually a renewable resource and all the indications are that the commonly held belief that it takes hundreds of thousands of years is incorrect.

2) I say again, the term reserve is an economic one, perhaps we will have consumed 50% of the reserves in 150 years time, at $60 a barrel...but what would the reserves look like at $150 a barrel? even if the relationship between resource and reserve was purely linear,(which it just isn't!) it would push out to 300 years and who knows what we'll be getting power from by then? maybe they'll figure out how to make thorium reactors run efficiently....

3)Look, in the early 80's oil went from $40 a barrel to $80 a barrel. therefore the reserves increased!! do you get it?? The price doubled! A reserve is a quantity of material that can be extracted for less than you can sell it (putting it simply) therefore an increase in cost results in deep wells, offshore difficult wells, politically unstable sites for wells...ect ect...becoming worth exploiting, THIS INCREASES THE RESERVES Do you understand!!?

4) WTF dude? I used that as an example of known reserves that have at current mining rates, going to be all gone in 10 years time....for the last 40 years...Its an example, as Gold becomes more valuable, lower grade deposits become viable...it's supply and demand. Exactly the same as oil.

(edit for poor spelling)
Now, I'm off to sign a lease deal...I think I'm gonna drive my V8.... ;)

topend geo wrote on Mar 9^th, 2012 at 11:24am:

Dude, you just keep posting the same thing over and over... Yes, I noticed YOU are doing that and without raising any valid information! 1)No, as a Geologist I believe that observable natural processes that can be replicated in a lab are a pretty good indication of reality. Like it or not, Oil is actually a renewable resource and all the indications are that the commonly held belief that it takes hundreds of thousands of years is incorrect. Well, I don't know about you being a geologist, but it is apparent that your reading & comprehension skills are lacking! the question you responded to above, is the question I put below, in which I plainly asked if you agreed that to "create Oil from natural processes", is hundreds of thousands of years. 1) As a geologist, you would be aware of the time frames, to "create Oil from natural processes", is hundreds of thousands of years. Why you would then talk about replicated in a lab, is beyond comprehension! What I am saying is that any none man made Oil (Natural Crude) takes hundreds of thousands of years to be formed and we have drawn down on over half of what are the supposedly known Reserves, in about 150 years! 2) I say again, the term reserve is an economic one, perhaps we will have consumed 50% of the reserves in 150 years time, at $60 a barrel...but what would the reserves look like at $150 a barrel? even if the relationship between resource and reserve was purely linear,(which it just isn't!) it would push out to 300 years and who knows what we'll be getting power from by then? maybe they'll figure out how to make thorium reactors run efficiently.... Again, the question you are responding to was - 2) Depending on who you believe, we have already Consumed over half of the worlds Reserves of Conventional Oil, in around 150 years. Again, this is Conventional Oil (natural, not man made) & of prime consideration here is that all of the easy to get at, cheap to Produce Reserves were all found quite some time ago, so we are now forced into going into out of the way places, the cost of production is much higher and the size of newer Reserves is much smaller, irrespective of how much we spend. And, it's not that we may consume half in the next 150 years, WE HAVE ALREADY CONSUMED HALF OF THE KNOWN NATURAL CRUDE RESERVES OVER THE LAST 150 YEARS! In any event, Production Growth has slowed & now Peaked, which is what has driven prices higher over the last 10 years or so. Around 1999 a barrel was about $10, it reached $147 before falling to $30 or so, now it's back over $100, but I would suggest that faltering Global Economy & a Decline in Oil Consumption will probably see Oil dip again to around $60-70 a barrel, before it starts its last march upwards to $300, $500, $1000. Btw, we don't have 300 years, for the thorium reactor issues to be sorted out & they won't drive cars anyway! 3)Look, in the early 80's oil went from $40 a barrel to $80 a barrel. therefore the reserves increased!! do you get it?? The price doubled! A reserve is a quantity of material that can be extracted for less than you can sell it (putting it simply) therefore an increase in cost results in deep wells, offshore difficult wells, politically unstable sites for wells...ect ect...becoming worth exploiting, THIS INCREASES THE RESERVES Do you understand!!? Again, this is responding to my question - 3) A large portion of the worlds Conventional Oil Reserves are supposedly based in OPEC countries and  those countries all arbitrarily increased their Reserves during the 1980's, purely because of jockeying for position on "export quotas".  All I can say, is catch up on history! THERE WERE NO NEW RESERVES DISCOVERED IN OPEC COUNTRIES, they were simply jockeying for export quotas! DO YOU COMPREHEND? 4) WTF dude? I used that as an example of known reserves that have at current mining rates, going to be all gone in 10 years time....for the last 40 years...Its an example, as Gold becomes more valuable, lower grade deposits become viable...it's supply and demand. Exactly the same as oil. Again this is responding to - 4) Gold doesn't fuel the Global Economy, Oil does! Both Gold & Oil are growing in Price, because of the same reasoning, DEMAND IS GROWING FASTER THAN SUPPLY CAN KEEP UP! That said, my earlier comment is still valid, "Gold doesn't fuel the Global Economy, Oil does"! (edit for poor spelling) Now, I'm off to sign a lease deal...I think I'm gonna drive my V8.... ;) Btw, you do know there is a spell check?

OH god...
you're just taking the mickey now aren't you??

seriously. Resource - Reserve...learn the difference.

OK I'll respond tomorrow, for now, I've had too many beers. :D

topend geo wrote on Mar 9^th, 2012 at 5:16pm:

OH god... you're just taking the mickey now aren't you?? No! Why would I bother, you're doing such a good job, of doing it to yourself! seriously. Resource - Reserve...learn the difference. I'm happy with what I've put! But, I don't think you quite have a handle on some aspects. OK I'll respond tomorrow, for now, I've had too many beers. :D Yeah, I was wondering, if you may have had a few?

While you are constipating on your next answer, try resolving -
What a the likely REAL global Reserves of Coventional (Natural - none man made) Oil - USED & STILL IN GROUND?

What are the likely EROI on the man made Oils and are they likely to be Energy sinks -
ie - It takes nearly as much, if not more Energy to make a barrel of Oil, than the Energy that barrel will then produce?

No, you are taking the mickey, I've provided you with links to articles supporting my position, you simply restate refuted arguments over and over again with no external links to articles or papers supporting your statements.

I'll type this very slowly as you seem to have comprehension difficulties (are you drunk as well?) the term reserve is an economic one! It does not reflect the actual amount of hydrocarbons in the earths crust. AT WHAT PRICE PER BARREL is the tipping point in 150 years calculated?? You don't know do you? Your spouting numbers and speculation with no evidence to back up your statements. I'm sure you're happy with what you know, because if you knew anymore, you'd see your argument is untenable! $1000 per barrel...really... If I believed that rubbish I'd go buy a thousand barrels and put em aside for retirement, have you?

topend geo wrote on Mar 10^th, 2012 at 3:26am:

No, you are taking the mickey, I've provided you with links to articles supporting my position, you simply restate refuted arguments over and over again with no external links to articles or papers supporting your statements. I'll type this very slowly as you seem to have comprehension difficulties (are you drunk as well?) the term reserve is an economic one! It does not reflect the actual amount of hydrocarbons in the earths crust. AT WHAT PRICE PER BARREL is the tipping point in 150 years calculated?? You don't know do you? Your spouting numbers and speculation with no evidence to back up your statements. I'm sure you're happy with what you know, because if you knew anymore, you'd see your argument is untenable! $1000 per barrel...really... If I believed that rubbish I'd go buy a thousand barrels and put em aside for retirement, have you?

You are correct, someone is trying to take the mickey & that someone is YOU!

In fact, you have supplied ONE LINK, to an article on man made Oil, which I have agreed can be done, just not a the massive scales that would be required and the EROI just isn't there, so these man made Oils would be manufactured on the basis of being an Energy sink!
Btw, if you still don't understand what an Energy sink is, then try looking it up on the net?


In fact, I have previously provided numerous links, in this thread & others and if you have a mind to educate yourself, then you could spend some valuable time looking thru some of those links , including -
http://www.ozpolitic.com/forum/YaBB.pl?num=1276908003/all
http://www.theoildrum.com/

Just one final thing on Reserves OR Resources and I am happy with either, it still requires an estimate of what can & or will be recoverable, bearing in mind likely technologies & whether it will be Economic to do so?

However, it also gets to the point, where technology &/or more money just don't cut the mustard and Production goes into decline on single wells, in whole fields, in entire countries and finally the whole planet!

That has happened, time after time, well after well, field after field and now to almost every country on the planet, but IF YOU SAY SO THEN HUBBERT & MANY OTHERS MUST BE WRONG?


Come and have a chat, after you've looked thru the many articles on the links I've provided.

Ok I beg your forgiveness, but I'm a busy man...Can you please be more specific about which articles pertinent to our discussion you wish me to read?

Particularly, I'd like to see:

1 who and how peak oil was calculated to occur in 150 years time and what price per barrel it was calculated at (yes , I'm still banging on about that and that question isn't going to just go away, it's central to what a reserve is)

2 An article or paper that can prove it takes hundreds of thousands of years to form in nature. You erronouisly attribute the link I provided you with to being about synthetic production. It isnt. it highlights that oil can form naturally in less than 4 years.

also..."it also gets to the point, where technology &/or more money just don't cut the mustard"
yup and at $1000 a barrel (thats, what, 10 times the current price!!) that point is a hell of a lot further off than the next 150 years!!!

topend geo wrote on Mar 10^th, 2012 at 10:03am:

Ok I beg your forgiveness, but I'm a busy man...Can you please be more specific about which articles pertinent to our discussion you wish me to read? Particularly, I'd like to see: 1 who and how peak oil was calculated to occur in 150 years time and what price per barrel it was calculated at (yes , I'm still banging on about that and that question isn't going to just go away, it's central to what a reserve is) 2 An article or paper that can prove it takes hundreds of thousands of years to form in nature. You erronouisly attribute the link I provided you with to being about synthetic production. It isnt. it highlights that oil can form naturally in less than 4 years. also..."it also gets to the point, where technology &/or more money just don't cut the mustard" yup and at $1000 a barrel (thats, what, 10 times the current price!!) that point is a hell of a lot further off than the next 150 years!!!

I'm sure we are all busy!

That said, I don't have an unlimited amount of time either.

In fact, my time is quite restricted these days, so I will have to suggest you do what I had to do, which was source my own information, look at all sides and come to my/your own conclusions!

That said, the following 2 sites are good starting points -
http://www.ozpolitic.com/forum/YaBB.pl?num=1276908003/all
http://www.theoildrum.com/

But there is more to Economic & Life, than just Geology & Oil, so if you want a wider perspective then I suggest you include the effects of Demographics, of the roll of Debt & the Monetary system and finally the effects of Climate Change!

Good luck, watch the Debt & enjoy your education!