Teetering on a tipping point: dangerous climate change in the Arctic

We are seeing the first signs of dangerous climate change in the Arctic. This is our warning that humanity is facing a dire future.

The Arctic region is fast approaching a series of “tipping points” that could trigger an abrupt domino effect of large-scale climate change across the entire planet. The region contains arguably the greatest concentration of potential tipping elements.

If set in motion, these can generate profound alterations which will place the Arctic not at the periphery, but at the core of the Earth system. There is evidence that these chain reactions have begun. This has major consequences not just for “nature”, but for the future of humankind as the changes progress.

Research shows that the Arctic is now warming at three times the global average. The loss of Arctic summer sea-ice forecast over the next four decades – if not before – is expected to have abrupt knock-on effects in northern mid-latitudes, including Beijing, Tokyo, London, Moscow, Berlin and New York. The loss of sea ice – which melted faster in summer than predicted – is linked tentatively to recent extreme cold winters in Europe.

Arctic records show unambiguously that sea ice volume has declined dramatically over the past two decades. In the next 10 years, summer sea ice could be largely confined to north of coastal Greenland and Ellesmere Island, and is likely to disappear entirely by mid-century.

Some environmental and biological elements, including weakening of the oceanic biological carbon pump and the thermohaline circulation,melting of the Greenland ice cap, thawing of Arctic permafrost and methane hydrate deposit, the decline of forest and peat fires in the boreal region, may be linked in a domino effect of tipping points that cascade rapidly once this summer sea ice is lost.

Despite this danger, semantic confusion masquerading as scientific debate – although providing excellent media fodder – had delayed an urgent need to start managing the reality of dangerous climate change in the Arctic.

And of course there are those who benefit from a warmer Arctic. A drop in Arctic ice has opened new shipping routes, expanded oil, gas, and mineral exploitation, increased military and research use, and led to new harbours, houses, roads, airports, power stations and other support facilities.

It has triggered a new gold rush to access these resources, with recent struggles by China, Brazil and India to join the Arctic Council where the split of these resources is being discussed. Not everyone is in favour of reducing the impact of warming on Arctic ice.

But all of us need to take this melting seriously. Top predators such as polar bears are declining. More methane gas is entering the atmosphere as permafrosts and submarine methane hydrates thaw. Freshwater discharge has increased 30% in recent years. And the Arctic Sea is warming faster as the ice cap melts, trapping more solar heat instead of reflecting it back into space, since ice reflects about 90% of the indecent solar radiation compared to the absorption of 60% of solar radiation by an open ocean surface devoid of ice.

In the subarctic region, dieback of the boreal forest and desiccation of peat deposits is leading to uncontrolled peat fires (such as those that plagued Russia in the summer of 2010) increases with warmer weather. This burning will further enhance greenhouse gas emissions.

We expect the Arctic will switch from being a carbon dioxide sink to become instead a source of greenhouse gases if seawater temperatures rise 4-5°C.

The rate of Arctic climate change is now faster than ecosystems and traditional Arctic societies can adapt to. Tipping points do not have to be points of no return. Several tipping points, such as the loss of summer sea ice and melting of permafrost, may be reversible in principle – although hard in practice.

However, should these changes involve the extinction of species – such as polar bears, walruses, ice-dependent seals and more than 1000 species of ice algae – the changes could represent a point of no return.

The Arctic crisis is a test of our capacity as scientists, and as societies, to respond to abrupt climate change. We need to stop debating the existence of tipping points in the Arctic and start managing their dangerous reality.

Link -
http://theconversation.edu.au/teetering-on-a-tipping-point-dangerous-climate-change-in-the-arctic-5156
==================================

You are too late.

Its been called already in 2005, some 7 years ago

Quote:

Global Warming 'Past the Point of No Return'      By Steve Connor      The Independent UK     Friday 16 September 2005

Is it a new full moon coming around every 7 years.

Which part of "domino effect of tipping points" did you not understand?

muso wrote on Feb 6^th, 2012 at 9:32pm:

Which part of "domino effect of tipping points" did you not understand?

I missed the part where it was proven to be due to anthropogenic warming. Maybe they can just make announcements when something has actually happened instead of fearmongering.

So you think it's due to Puff the Magic Dragon breathing fire in Santa Claus's North Pole Grotto ?

muso wrote on Feb 7^th, 2012 at 9:20am:

So you think it's due to Puff the Magic Dragon breathing fire in Santa Claus's North Pole Grotto ?

I guess that is as good as any non-emperical reason so far.

perceptions_now wrote on Feb 6^th, 2012 at 6:22pm:

... The loss of Arctic summer sea-ice forecast over the next four decades – if not before – is expected to have abrupt knock-on effects in northern mid-latitudes, including Beijing, Tokyo, London, Moscow, Berlin and New York. The loss of sea ice – which melted faster in summer than predicted – is linked tentatively to recent extreme cold winters in Europe.

This may be a bad thing, but if climate change impacts those cities the most, it is the best lobbying nature has ever done.

Well, I think I've outlined a simplified argument that you might be able to understand in the sticky section. If you read it with an open mind then you might find that it makes more sense than your circumpolar mythological creatures hypothesis.

Let's start with the Carbon balance.

Doctor Jolly wrote on Feb 7^th, 2012 at 9:40am:

perceptions_now wrote on Feb 6th, 2012 at 6:22pm: ... The loss of Arctic summer sea-ice forecast over the next four decades – if not before – is expected to have abrupt knock-on effects in northern mid-latitudes, including Beijing, Tokyo, London, Moscow, Berlin and New York. The loss of sea ice – which melted faster in summer than predicted – is linked tentatively to recent extreme cold winters in Europe. This may be a bad thing, but if climate change impacts those cities the most, it is the lobbying nature has ever done.

Ironically, the initial effects may be an increase in cold fresh water coming from the Arctic Ocean, causing localised colder conditions in Europe.

We may need way more tax to forstall this catastrophe from occurring, not to mention the inevitable thawing out of Godzilla's secret lair in the Northern Pacific. :o
Get your red crash helmet on kiddies, the skies falling.

chicken_lipsforme wrote on Feb 7^th, 2012 at 10:36am:

We may need way more tax to forstall this catastrophe from occurring, not to mention the inevitable thawing out of Godzilla's secret lair in the Northern Pacific. :o Get your red crash helmet on kiddies, the skies falling.

I'm not even talking about tax in this thread. I've made my views known about that elsewhere.  I'm talking about basic atmospheric science. The first stage is to define the problem before coming up with a solution.

However, I doubt if you're really interested in the technical aspects. I get the feeling that flag waving is more up your alley. If not, prove me wrong.

From the Climate Change explained thread:

Quote:

The figures apply to 2007. In 1990 (the reference year), there were 690 Pg of carbon dioxide in the atmophere. The CO2 was at 350ppmv (parts per million volume) in 1990 and 387ppmv in 2009.

The level is now 393 ppm as of January 2012. That equates to a new figure of about 774 Pg of carbon dioxide, an increase of 84Pg, or about 16.8pG CO2 per annum.

How does that compare to Oil and Coal combustion in that period?

Deathly silence. Come on, if you are familiar enough with the issues to dispute basic facts, I would have thought that you'd have this information at your fingertips.

Science behind the big freeze: is climate change bringing the Arctic to Europe?

The bitterly cold weather sweeping Britain and the rest of Europe has been linked by scientists with the ice-free seas of the Arctic, where global warming is exerting its greatest influence.

A dramatic loss of sea ice covering the Barents and Kara Seas above northern Russia could explain why a chill Arctic wind has engulfed much of Europe and killed 221 people over the past week.

The death toll from Arctic blast has been particularly severe in the Ukraine, where many of the dead have been people sleeping on the streets. Heating and food tents have been set up to ease their hardship. In Romania 24 people are known to have died and 17 in Poland.

A growing number of experts believe complex wind patterns are being changed because melting Arctic sea ice has exposed huge swaths of normally frozen ocean to the atmosphere above.

In particular, the loss of Arctic sea ice could be influencing the development of high-pressure weather systems over northern Russia, which bring very cold winds from the Arctic and Siberia to Western Europe and the British Isles, the scientists believe. An intense anticyclone over north-west Russia is behind the bitterly cold easterly winds that have swept across Europe and some climate scientists say the lack of Arctic sea ice brought about by global warming is responsible.

"The current weather pattern fits earlier predictions of computer models for how the atmosphere responds to the loss of sea ice due to global warming," said Professor Stefan Rahmstorf of the Potsdam Institute for Climate Impact Research. "The ice-free areas of the ocean act like a heater as the water is warmer than the Arctic air above it. This favours the formation of a high-pressure system near the Barents Sea, which steers cold air into Europe."

Sea ice covering the Barents and Kara Seas has been exceptionally low this winter, according to the US National Snow and Ice Data Centre in Boulder, Colorado. But air temperatures above the Barents and Kara Seas have been higher than average. The relatively mild westerly winds that have kept Britain from freezing much of this winter have been blocked by fierce high pressure over north-west Russia, centred on an area just south of the Barents Sea.

Studies by scientists at the Alfred Wegener Institute for Polar and Marine Research have confirmed a link between the loss of Arctic sea ice and the development of high-pressure zones in the polar region, which influence wind patterns at lower latitudes further south. Scientists found that as the cap of sea ice is removed from the ocean, huge amounts of heat are released from the sea into the colder air above, causing the air to rise. Rising air destabilises the atmosphere and alters the difference in air pressure between the Arctic and more southerly regions, changing wind patterns.

Professor Rahmstorf said the Alfred Wegener study confirms earlier predictions from computer models by Vladimir Petoukhov of the Potsdam Institute, who forecast colder winters in western Europe as a result of melting sea ice.

Dr Petoukhov and his colleague Vladimir Semenov were among the first scientists to suggest a link between the loss of sea ice and colder winters in Europe. Their 2009 study simulated the effects of disappearing sea ice and found that for some years to come the loss will increase the chances of colder winters.

"Whoever thinks that the shrinking of some far-away sea ice won't bother him could be wrong. There are complex interconnections in the climate system, and in the Barents-Kara Sea we might have discovered a powerful feedback mechanism," Dr Petoukhov said.

But UK climate researcher Adam Scaife said other complexities are almost certainly influencing the current cold spell. "There is a pretty clear link between the current event and the upper level winds... The winds up at 30km (18.6 miles) altitude are very weak," he said. "We have verified several times using computer model experiments that this leads to high pressure across northern Europe and cold winter conditions in the UK as we see now."

Link -
http://www.independent.co.uk/news/science/science-behind-the-big-freeze-is-climate-change-bringing-the-arctic-to-europe-6358928.html
===============================
Then, there is also the possibility that the great ocean conveyor current could be decreased OR stopped, as the ice melts, thus causing temperatures to plunge in some areas, including Western Europe!
http://science.nasa.gov/science-news/science-at-nasa/2004/05mar_arctic/

http://science.nasa.gov/media/medialibrary/2004/03/01/05mar_arctic_resources/currents1.jpg

That's what I was hinting at in reply 8.

perceptions_now wrote on Feb 8^th, 2012 at 11:43am:

Science behind the big freeze: is climate change bringing the Arctic to Europe? The bitterly cold weather sweeping Britain and the rest of Europe has been linked by scientists with the ice-free seas of the Arctic, where global warming is exerting its greatest influence. A dramatic loss of sea ice covering the Barents and Kara Seas above northern Russia could explain why a chill Arctic wind has engulfed much of Europe and killed 221 people over the past week. The death toll from Arctic blast has been particularly severe in the Ukraine, where many of the dead have been people sleeping on the streets. Heating and food tents have been set up to ease their hardship. In Romania 24 people are known to have died and 17 in Poland. A growing number of experts believe complex wind patterns are being changed because melting Arctic sea ice has exposed huge swaths of normally frozen ocean to the atmosphere above. In particular, the loss of Arctic sea ice could be influencing the development of high-pressure weather systems over northern Russia, which bring very cold winds from the Arctic and Siberia to Western Europe and the British Isles, the scientists believe. An intense anticyclone over north-west Russia is behind the bitterly cold easterly winds that have swept across Europe and some climate scientists say the lack of Arctic sea ice brought about by global warming is responsible. "The current weather pattern fits earlier predictions of computer models for how the atmosphere responds to the loss of sea ice due to global warming," said Professor Stefan Rahmstorf of the Potsdam Institute for Climate Impact Research. "The ice-free areas of the ocean act like a heater as the water is warmer than the Arctic air above it. This favours the formation of a high-pressure system near the Barents Sea, which steers cold air into Europe." Sea ice covering the Barents and Kara Seas has been exceptionally low this winter, according to the US National Snow and Ice Data Centre in Boulder, Colorado. But air temperatures above the Barents and Kara Seas have been higher than average. The relatively mild westerly winds that have kept Britain from freezing much of this winter have been blocked by fierce high pressure over north-west Russia, centred on an area just south of the Barents Sea. Studies by scientists at the Alfred Wegener Institute for Polar and Marine Research have confirmed a link between the loss of Arctic sea ice and the development of high-pressure zones in the polar region, which influence wind patterns at lower latitudes further south. Scientists found that as the cap of sea ice is removed from the ocean, huge amounts of heat are released from the sea into the colder air above, causing the air to rise. Rising air destabilises the atmosphere and alters the difference in air pressure between the Arctic and more southerly regions, changing wind patterns. Professor Rahmstorf said the Alfred Wegener study confirms earlier predictions from computer models by Vladimir Petoukhov of the Potsdam Institute, who forecast colder winters in western Europe as a result of melting sea ice. Dr Petoukhov and his colleague Vladimir Semenov were among the first scientists to suggest a link between the loss of sea ice and colder winters in Europe. Their 2009 study simulated the effects of disappearing sea ice and found that for some years to come the loss will increase the chances of colder winters. "Whoever thinks that the shrinking of some far-away sea ice won't bother him could be wrong. There are complex interconnections in the climate system, and in the Barents-Kara Sea we might have discovered a powerful feedback mechanism," Dr Petoukhov said. But UK climate researcher Adam Scaife said other complexities are almost certainly influencing the current cold spell. "There is a pretty clear link between the current event and the upper level winds... The winds up at 30km (18.6 miles) altitude are very weak," he said. "We have verified several times using computer model experiments that this leads to high pressure across northern Europe and cold winter conditions in the UK as we see now." Link - http://www.independent.co.uk/news/science/science-behind-the-big-freeze-is-climate-change-bringing-the-arctic-to-europe-6358928.html =============================== Then, there is also the possibility that the great ocean conveyor current could be decreased OR stopped, as the ice melts, thus causing temperatures to plunge in some areas, including Western Europe! http://science.nasa.gov/science-news/science-at-nasa/2004/05mar_arctic/ http://science.nasa.gov/media/medialibrary/2004/03/01/05mar_arctic_resources/currents1.jpg

How about you let the guy who forecast the cold blast to tell you where you are going wrong.

WeatherAction's headline long range warning for December was for Arctic blasts with heavy snow and
blizzards and specifically predicted the blizzards – to the day from 30 days ahead

http://www.weatheraction.com/docs/WANews09No102.pdf


Piers Corbyn astrophysicist of WeatherAction long range
weather & climate forecasters said today: “The gritting
crisis and travel chaos in the present big freeze in Britain
& Ireland is largely a direct consequence of out-moded
forecasting procedures as used by the Met Office, and the
unreadiness of Councils for this Arctic blast because they
are misled by Global Warming propaganda from
government and media and the Met Office’s ridiculous
forecast for a ‘probably mild’ winter.
“That forecast, it appears, was designed to please the
Government’s ‘Global warming’ ideology when the forecasting method used has consistently failed. If the Government
had advised Councils to apply our solar-based forecasts they would have been ready and chaos and economic damage
reduced. WeatherAction's headline long range warning for December was for Arctic blasts with heavy snow and
blizzards and specifically predicted the blizzards – to the day from 30 days ahead – that hit Copenhagen & London
near the end of the Global Warming (!) Summit. (Full Dec forecast via: http://www.weatheraction.com/member.asp )
“Very importantly for the recent chaos of 20/21 Dec it should be noted that the Met
Office forecast was for light snow on 21st but it turned out to be very heavy. As
drivers commented; ‘There was no warning!’ The Met Office’s subsequent ‘severe
warnings’ were not really warnings but descriptions of what was going on. On the
other hand WeatherAction specified 19-21 Dec as a RED WEATHER WARNING
PERIOD from 30days ahead with a specific warning that there would be a big
increase in frontal activity compared with TV/Met Office forecasts whatever they
would state when produced. This was a true WARNING made 30 days ahead.
In line with our WeatherAction warning precipitation was much heavier than TV
/ Met Office forecasts. Any council who used our forecast would have applied this
knowledge and planned to bring in extra staff.
Piers added “Our Red Warnings are independent of forecast details which in this case had expected the milder weather now
on its way to have already arrived in more than just the far SouthWest. Red warnings enable users to know that rain will
become more rain and wind; and snow become more snow and wind.
“Until the government, political classes and their agents in the media and weather business admit the total failure of CO2-
Global Warming theory which has now become a religion, they will continue to fail the public. CO2 driven Global Warming
is failed science based on fraudulent data and believing in it is causing chaos, suffering, deaths, and economic damage. It’s
not just a joke, it is deadly dangerous and is holding back Britain’s recovery. It must be swept away.

progressiveslol wrote on Feb 8^th, 2012 at 12:43pm:

perceptions_now wrote on Feb 8th, 2012 at 11:43am: Science behind the big freeze: is climate change bringing the Arctic to Europe? The bitterly cold weather sweeping Britain and the rest of Europe has been linked by scientists with the ice-free seas of the Arctic, where global warming is exerting its greatest influence. A dramatic loss of sea ice covering the Barents and Kara Seas above northern Russia could explain why a chill Arctic wind has engulfed much of Europe and killed 221 people over the past week. The death toll from Arctic blast has been particularly severe in the Ukraine, where many of the dead have been people sleeping on the streets. Heating and food tents have been set up to ease their hardship. In Romania 24 people are known to have died and 17 in Poland. A growing number of experts believe complex wind patterns are being changed because melting Arctic sea ice has exposed huge swaths of normally frozen ocean to the atmosphere above. In particular, the loss of Arctic sea ice could be influencing the development of high-pressure weather systems over northern Russia, which bring very cold winds from the Arctic and Siberia to Western Europe and the British Isles, the scientists believe. An intense anticyclone over north-west Russia is behind the bitterly cold easterly winds that have swept across Europe and some climate scientists say the lack of Arctic sea ice brought about by global warming is responsible. "The current weather pattern fits earlier predictions of computer models for how the atmosphere responds to the loss of sea ice due to global warming," said Professor Stefan Rahmstorf of the Potsdam Institute for Climate Impact Research. "The ice-free areas of the ocean act like a heater as the water is warmer than the Arctic air above it. This favours the formation of a high-pressure system near the Barents Sea, which steers cold air into Europe." Sea ice covering the Barents and Kara Seas has been exceptionally low this winter, according to the US National Snow and Ice Data Centre in Boulder, Colorado. But air temperatures above the Barents and Kara Seas have been higher than average. The relatively mild westerly winds that have kept Britain from freezing much of this winter have been blocked by fierce high pressure over north-west Russia, centred on an area just south of the Barents Sea. Studies by scientists at the Alfred Wegener Institute for Polar and Marine Research have confirmed a link between the loss of Arctic sea ice and the development of high-pressure zones in the polar region, which influence wind patterns at lower latitudes further south. Scientists found that as the cap of sea ice is removed from the ocean, huge amounts of heat are released from the sea into the colder air above, causing the air to rise. Rising air destabilises the atmosphere and alters the difference in air pressure between the Arctic and more southerly regions, changing wind patterns. Professor Rahmstorf said the Alfred Wegener study confirms earlier predictions from computer models by Vladimir Petoukhov of the Potsdam Institute, who forecast colder winters in western Europe as a result of melting sea ice. Dr Petoukhov and his colleague Vladimir Semenov were among the first scientists to suggest a link between the loss of sea ice and colder winters in Europe. Their 2009 study simulated the effects of disappearing sea ice and found that for some years to come the loss will increase the chances of colder winters. "Whoever thinks that the shrinking of some far-away sea ice won't bother him could be wrong. There are complex interconnections in the climate system, and in the Barents-Kara Sea we might have discovered a powerful feedback mechanism," Dr Petoukhov said. But UK climate researcher Adam Scaife said other complexities are almost certainly influencing the current cold spell. "There is a pretty clear link between the current event and the upper level winds... The winds up at 30km (18.6 miles) altitude are very weak," he said. "We have verified several times using computer model experiments that this leads to high pressure across northern Europe and cold winter conditions in the UK as we see now." Link - http://www.independent.co.uk/news/science/science-behind-the-big-freeze-is-climate-change-bringing-the-arctic-to-europe-6358928.html =============================== Then, there is also the possibility that the great ocean conveyor current could be decreased OR stopped, as the ice melts, thus causing temperatures to plunge in some areas, including Western Europe! http://science.nasa.gov/science-news/science-at-nasa/2004/05mar_arctic/ http://science.nasa.gov/media/medialibrary/2004/03/01/05mar_arctic_resources/currents1.jpg How about you let the guy who forecast the cold blast to tell you where you are going wrong. WeatherAction's headline long range warning for December was for Arctic blasts with heavy snow and blizzards and specifically predicted the blizzards – to the day from 30 days ahead http://www.weatheraction.com/docs/WANews09No102.pdf Piers Corbyn astrophysicist of WeatherAction long range weather & climate forecasters said today: “The gritting crisis and travel chaos in the present big freeze in Britain & Ireland is largely a direct consequence of out-moded forecasting procedures as used by the Met Office, and the unreadiness of Councils for this Arctic blast because they are misled by Global Warming propaganda from government and media and the Met Office’s ridiculous forecast for a ‘probably mild’ winter. “That forecast, it appears, was designed to please the Government’s ‘Global warming’ ideology when the forecasting method used has consistently failed. If the Government had advised Councils to apply our solar-based forecasts they would have been ready and chaos and economic damage reduced. WeatherAction's headline long range warning for December was for Arctic blasts with heavy snow and blizzards and specifically predicted the blizzards – to the day from 30 days ahead – that hit Copenhagen & London near the end of the Global Warming (!) Summit. (Full Dec forecast via: http://www.weatheraction.com/member.asp ) “Very importantly for the recent chaos of 20/21 Dec it should be noted that the Met Office forecast was for light snow on 21st but it turned out to be very heavy. As drivers commented; ‘There was no warning!’ The Met Office’s subsequent ‘severe warnings’ were not really warnings but descriptions of what was going on. On the other hand WeatherAction specified 19-21 Dec as a RED WEATHER WARNING PERIOD from 30days ahead with a specific warning that there would be a big increase in frontal activity compared with TV/Met Office forecasts whatever they would state when produced. This was a true WARNING made 30 days ahead. In line with our WeatherAction warning precipitation was much heavier than TV / Met Office forecasts. Any council who used our forecast would have applied this knowledge and planned to bring in extra staff. Piers added “Our Red Warnings are independent of forecast details which in this case had expected the milder weather now on its way to have already arrived in more than just the far SouthWest. Red warnings enable users to know that rain will become more rain and wind; and snow become more snow and wind. “Until the government, political classes and their agents in the media and weather business admit the total failure of CO2- Global Warming theory which has now become a religion, they will continue to fail the public. CO2 driven Global Warming is failed science based on fraudulent data and believing in it is causing chaos, suffering, deaths, and economic damage. It’s not just a joke, it is deadly dangerous and is holding back Britain’s recovery. It must be swept away.

Progs,
Before starting down this line, are you sure you want to proceed, are you sure of these current facts?

Didn't you see "The Day After Tomorrow" ? The plot, although far-fetched was based on some genuine research which suggested that changes in the climate (Global Warming resulting in ice melt) could shut down or slow the North Atlantic Drift or Gulf stream and result in the U.K. having a periglacial climate for a short period.

Of course, Holywood inflated the idea way out of any realistic situation.

Nobody made any prediction that the world would warm equally in all regions. Even in 1999, it was understood that some regions would actually cool.


Piers Corbyn calls himself an astrophyscist and a meteorologist. He is neither. He pretends that he can predict wether events and even earthquake through his Solar Lunar prediction system, which he keeps secret. He makes a lot of predictions and he generally keeps quiet about the majority, which he gets wrong. Eventually he has to get one right. (The Law of Averages)


Quote:

Following criticism of Weather Action's forecasts in The Times and The Guardian, in particular from journalist Paul Simons, Piers Corbyn banned the use of any extracts of them in any articles on his site unless they were approved by Corbyn. In addition the above newspapers and any publication which carried articles by Paul Simons were also explicitly forbidden from quoting them

England produces a fairly diverse number of eccentrics. Corbyn is one.

The only reference I could find for astrophysics was this one:


Quote:

Journal of the British Astronomical Association for his home-based measurements of the eccentricity of the earth's orbit; and in the Geographical Journal (of the Royal Geographical Society) for a study on the size of pebbles along Chesil Beach.

muso wrote on Feb 8^th, 2012 at 1:26pm:

Didn't you see "The Day After Tomorrow" ? The plot, although far-fetched was based on some genuine research which suggested that changes in the climate (Global Warming resulting in ice melt) could shut down or slow the North Atlantic Drift or Gulf stream and result in the U.K. having a periglacial climate for a short period. Of course, Holywood inflated the idea way out of any realistic situation. Nobody made any prediction that the world would warm equally in all regions. Even in 1999, it was understood that some regions would actually cool. Piers Corbyn calls himself an astrophyscist and a meteorologist. He is neither. He pretends that he can predict wether events and even earthquake through his Solar Lunar prediction system, which he keeps secret. He makes a lot of predictions and he generally keeps quiet about the majority, which he gets wrong. Eventually he has to get one right. (The Law of Averages) Quote: Following criticism of Weather Action's forecasts in The Times and The Guardian, in particular from journalist Paul Simons, Piers Corbyn banned the use of any extracts of them in any articles on his site unless they were approved by Corbyn. In addition the above newspapers and any publication which carried articles by Paul Simons were also explicitly forbidden from quoting them England produces a fairly diverse number of eccentrics. Corbyn is one. The only reference I could find for astrophysics was this one: [quote]Journal of the British Astronomical Association for his home-based measurements of the eccentricity of the earth's orbit; and in the Geographical Journal (of the Royal Geographical Society) for a study on the size of pebbles along Chesil Beach.

[/quote]
That is a shame you are so short sighted. Maybe if you monitored him, you wouldn't be so quick to shut him out.

You should keep away from wikipedia, it is not doing you justice

Astrophysicist
The branch of astronomy that deals with the physics of stellar phenomena

progressiveslol wrote on Feb 8^th, 2012 at 1:53pm:

muso wrote on Feb 8th, 2012 at 1:26pm: Didn't you see "The Day After Tomorrow" ? The plot, although far-fetched was based on some genuine research which suggested that changes in the climate (Global Warming resulting in ice melt) could shut down or slow the North Atlantic Drift or Gulf stream and result in the U.K. having a periglacial climate for a short period. Of course, Holywood inflated the idea way out of any realistic situation. Nobody made any prediction that the world would warm equally in all regions. Even in 1999, it was understood that some regions would actually cool. Piers Corbyn calls himself an astrophyscist and a meteorologist. He is neither. He pretends that he can predict wether events and even earthquake through his Solar Lunar prediction system, which he keeps secret. He makes a lot of predictions and he generally keeps quiet about the majority, which he gets wrong. Eventually he has to get one right. (The Law of Averages) Quote: Following criticism of Weather Action's forecasts in The Times and The Guardian, in particular from journalist Paul Simons, Piers Corbyn banned the use of any extracts of them in any articles on his site unless they were approved by Corbyn. In addition the above newspapers and any publication which carried articles by Paul Simons were also explicitly forbidden from quoting them England produces a fairly diverse number of eccentrics. Corbyn is one. The only reference I could find for astrophysics was this one: [quote]Journal of the British Astronomical Association for his home-based measurements of the eccentricity of the earth's orbit; and in the Geographical Journal (of the Royal Geographical Society) for a study on the size of pebbles along Chesil Beach.

That is a shame you are so short sighted.Maybe if you monitored him,  you wouldn't be so quick to shut him out.

You should keep away from wikipedia, it is not doing you justice

Astrophysicist
The branch of astronomy that deals with the physics of stellar phenomena[/quote]

So, how long have you been monitoring him for, Progs?

Long enough to Goggle a possible rebuttal of what was raised earlier in this thread?

You certainly haven't been following him for years!

And, you may need new glasses or you wouldn't have inferred that his article referred to the current cold snap in Europe, which is what I had referred to!

Why? Because the article you referred to , by Corbyn in WeatherAction was published on December 23 2009 and it did not refer to the current cold snap in Europe!   

muso wrote on Feb 8^th, 2012 at 1:26pm:

Didn't you see "The Day After Tomorrow" ? The plot, although far-fetched was based on some genuine research which suggested that changes in the climate (Global Warming resulting in ice melt) could shut down or slow the North Atlantic Drift or Gulf stream and result in the U.K. having a periglacial climate for a short period. Of course, Hollywood inflated the idea way out of any realistic situation. Nobody made any prediction that the world would warm equally in all regions. Even in 1999, it was understood that some regions would actually cool. Piers Corbyn calls himself an astrophyscist and a meteorologist. He is neither. He pretends that he can predict wether events and even earthquake through his Solar Lunar prediction system, which he keeps secret. He makes a lot of predictions and he generally keeps quiet about the majority, which he gets wrong. Eventually he has to get one right. (The Law of Averages) Quote: Following criticism of Weather Action's forecasts in The Times and The Guardian, in particular from journalist Paul Simons, Piers Corbyn banned the use of any extracts of them in any articles on his site unless they were approved by Corbyn. In addition the above newspapers and any publication which carried articles by Paul Simons were also explicitly forbidden from quoting them England produces a fairly diverse number of eccentrics. Corbyn is one. The only reference I could find for astrophysics was this one: [quote]Journal of the British Astronomical Association for his home-based measurements of the eccentricity of the earth's orbit; and in the Geographical Journal (of the Royal Geographical Society) for a study on the size of pebbles along Chesil Beach.

[/quote]

No I didn't, for a start...But I did see 'On the Beach' (1959, with Gregory Peck)..Although I may have read the book of 'Day After Tomorrow' (although the book may not have been the same as the movie) post apocalyptic , after the nuclear/climate diaster movies and books were pretty popular in tthe scifi genre ( H.G Wells' The Time Machine, the Mad Max movies, and assorted other short stories, who's names I can't remember right now, even the original 'Voyage to the Bottom of the Sea, Walter Pidgeon, 1961 etc)....

It's a fairly common theme in scifi....I could list a dozen or more books/movies that use that idea....of course it doesn't mean that the 'modern' versions are any more accurate than the 1930s 40s, 50s, 60s or 70s versions....

Using scifi ideas doesn't make the idea any more valid than the 1959 movie 'On the Beach' with Gregory Peck....

Of course the idea is amusing...instead of 'global warming' we will get 'global cooling'.....What does THAT do to the IPCC's predictions????

gizmo_2655 wrote on Feb 8^th, 2012 at 2:52pm:

muso wrote on Feb 8th, 2012 at 1:26pm: Didn't you see "The Day After Tomorrow" ? The plot, although far-fetched was based on some genuine research which suggested that changes in the climate (Global Warming resulting in ice melt) could shut down or slow the North Atlantic Drift or Gulf stream and result in the U.K. having a periglacial climate for a short period. Of course, Hollywood inflated the idea way out of any realistic situation. Nobody made any prediction that the world would warm equally in all regions. Even in 1999, it was understood that some regions would actually cool. Piers Corbyn calls himself an astrophyscist and a meteorologist. He is neither. He pretends that he can predict wether events and even earthquake through his Solar Lunar prediction system, which he keeps secret. He makes a lot of predictions and he generally keeps quiet about the majority, which he gets wrong. Eventually he has to get one right. (The Law of Averages) Quote: Following criticism of Weather Action's forecasts in The Times and The Guardian, in particular from journalist Paul Simons, Piers Corbyn banned the use of any extracts of them in any articles on his site unless they were approved by Corbyn. In addition the above newspapers and any publication which carried articles by Paul Simons were also explicitly forbidden from quoting them England produces a fairly diverse number of eccentrics. Corbyn is one. The only reference I could find for astrophysics was this one: [quote]Journal of the British Astronomical Association for his home-based measurements of the eccentricity of the earth's orbit; and in the Geographical Journal (of the Royal Geographical Society) for a study on the size of pebbles along Chesil Beach.

No I didn't, for a start...But I did see 'On the Beach' (1959, with Gregory Peck)..Although I may have read the book of 'Day After Tomorrow' (although the book may not have been the same as the movie) post apocalyptic , after the nuclear/climate diaster movies and books were pretty popular in tthe scifi genre ( H.G Wells' The Time Machine, the Mad Max movies, and assorted other short stories, who's names I can't remember right now, even the original 'Voyage to the Bottom of the Sea, Walter Pidgeon, 1961 etc)....

It's a fairly common theme in scifi....I could list a dozen or more books/movies that use that idea....of course it doesn't mean that the 'modern' versions are any more accurate than the 1930s 40s, 50s, 60s or 70s versions....

Using scifi ideas doesn't make the idea any more valid than the 1959 movie 'On the Beach' with Gregory Peck....

Of course the idea is amusing...instead of 'global warming' we will get 'global cooling'.....What does THAT do to the IPCC's predictions????[/quote]
My bad, here are some predictions from weather action that keep stating that the big chill is coming but has been delayed. Read that until I find what I should hasve posted in the first place. Bit busy at the moment, but this should suffice at this stage.

http://www.weatheraction.com/displayarticle.asp?a=394&c=5

This is the original video of what was delayed.
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=obLq_klpM1w

gizmo_2655 wrote on Feb 8^th, 2012 at 2:52pm:

Of course the idea is amusing...instead of 'global warming' we will get 'global cooling'.....What does THAT do to the IPCC's predictions????

Not Global cooling, regional cooling.  We'll still get global warming, but with some regions actually cooling initially. The Regional Reports (Chapter 11) from AR4 already accounted for that:

Quote:

Europe, particularly its north-western parts, owes its relatively mild climate partly to the northward heat transport by the Atlantic MOC (e.g., Stouffer et al., 2006). Most models suggest increased greenhouse gas concentrations will lead to a weakening of the MOC

Just thought I would add the following (you might find it familiar)

Weather is not climate

Do we find that familiar

WeatherAction’s prediction (Right)
of Earth-facing coronal holes* to
appear on the sun at the start of
February and these to trigger both
major earthquakes (probably in Southern Hemisphere) and significant
weather front activity has been superbly confirmed. (*announced 27 Jan under new SLAT7)
The coronal holes appeared on cue across the centre of the solar disc on Feb 1st – as reported
by Spaceweather.com http://bit.ly/xeJiVV . A Major earthquake then hit Vanuatu, South
Pacific on Feb 2nd (M7.1 – the largest in the world for 3 weeks) and many aftershocks
followed. All quakes larger than M5 on Feb 2nd were in the Southern Hemisphere.
Significant weather events expected by WeatherAction – driven by the top level solar effects
in our ‘R5’ Red warning - also appeared on cue such as an icy easterly blast in Italy in our
Euromaps forecast and exacerbation of snow deluges in North New England USA.
Weather starts 93 million miles away not in a computer
Piers Corbyn, astrophysicist and originator of the Solar Lunar Action Technique which
forms his forecasting process said: “This is a tremendous advance. The timing of the
emergence and position of the Coronal Holes,
the major quake and extreme weather events
were all spot-on. It is clear that major quake
events and weather extreme events and events
such as Jet stream shifts are powered or
triggered by solar activity – such as the fast
solar wind emitted from Coronal holes.”

http://www.weatheraction.com/docs/WANews12No6.pdf

Yes, he claims to be able to predict Earthquakes too  ::)

nuff said.

muso wrote on Feb 9^th, 2012 at 5:45pm:

Yes, he claims to be able to predict Earthquakes too  ::) nuff said.

You are talking through ur A mos. He does not predict them, he is trialing a way to warn of extra danger of an earthquake happening in a region.

If he can perfect the way he puts the information together, then it may become predictions of sorts, but I believe it will remain an indicator only for a while.

There is certainly merit in what he is trying to do even if his trial fails.

Serious meteorologists and seismologists who have been studying their field all their lives don't have much time for a "smoke and mirrors" guy who refuses to divulge his methods, censors any mention of failed predictions on his website, and charges for the forecasts.

Quote:

He doesn't predict them

No? Looks like you haven't really been monitoring him at all. Which part oif your anatomy did that remark come from?

http://www.weatheraction.com/displayarticle.asp?a=328&c=5

Quote:

APRIL WeatherAction EXTREME WEATHER & MAJOR #EARTHQUAKES Forecast is NOW AVAILABLE via ExtEvRestofWorld http://bit.ly/dNhlNo EXTREME WEATHER AND EARTHQUAKE DANGER IMMINENT around 23rd-27th March warns Piers Corbyn - Updating with news

muso wrote on Feb 10^th, 2012 at 7:39am:

Serious meteorologists and seismologists who have been studying their field all their lives don't have much time for a "smoke and mirrors" guy who refuses to divulge his methods, censors any mention of failed predictions on his website, and charges for the forecasts. Quote: He doesn't predict them No? Looks like you haven't really been monitoring him at all. Which part oif your anatomy did that remark come from? http://www.weatheraction.com/displayarticle.asp?a=328&c=5 [quote] APRIL WeatherAction EXTREME WEATHER & MAJOR #EARTHQUAKES Forecast is NOW AVAILABLE via ExtEvRestofWorld http://bit.ly/dNhlNo EXTREME WEATHER AND EARTHQUAKE DANGER IMMINENT around 23rd-27th March warns Piers Corbyn - Updating with news

[/quote]
He is not government funded, so why should he give the details out and I am not sure what you are getting at with the rest of your reply.

progressiveslol wrote on Feb 10^th, 2012 at 8:10am:

He is not government funded, so why should he give the details out and I am not sure what you are getting at with the rest of your reply.

Well if he wants to get his credibility back, he needs to reveal the nature of his smoke and mirrors machine, because other UK meteorologists think he's a looney. He has a credibility gap. I mean, he wouldn't need to reveal the exact brand of tea leaves he uses, just the process.

muso wrote on Feb 10^th, 2012 at 10:01am:

progressiveslol wrote on Feb 10th, 2012 at 8:10am: He is not government funded, so why should he give the details out and I am not sure what you are getting at with the rest of your reply. Well if he wants to get his credibility back, he needs to reveal the nature of his smoke and mirrors machine, because other UK meteorologists think he's a looney. He has a credibility gap. I mean, he wouldn't need to reveal the exact brand of tea leaves he uses, just the process.

All he has to do is give information out about his results which he is doing.

As for others thinking he is looney. Well he is better than they are and they are just unhappy that they dont know what he know and cant do what he does. They look like noobies against him and they have wasted all their education on a subject that is not world class, so to speak. No wonder they turn to name calling.

progressiveslol wrote on Feb 10^th, 2012 at 10:43am:

muso wrote on Feb 10th, 2012 at 10:01am: progressiveslol wrote on Feb 10th, 2012 at 8:10am: He is not government funded, so why should he give the details out and I am not sure what you are getting at with the rest of your reply. Well if he wants to get his credibility back, he needs to reveal the nature of his smoke and mirrors machine, because other UK meteorologists think he's a looney. He has a credibility gap. I mean, he wouldn't need to reveal the exact brand of tea leaves he uses, just the process. All he has to do is give information out about his results which he is doing. As for others thinking he is looney. Well he is better than they are and they are just unhappy that they dont know what he know and cant do what he does. They look like noobies against him and they have wasted all their education on a subject that is not world class, so to speak. No wonder they turn to name calling.

He's "better" because he publishes his own stats, and discards any inconvenient predictions that he got wrong. 

muso wrote on Feb 10^th, 2012 at 2:05pm:

progressiveslol wrote on Feb 10th, 2012 at 10:43am: muso wrote on Feb 10th, 2012 at 10:01am: progressiveslol wrote on Feb 10th, 2012 at 8:10am: He is not government funded, so why should he give the details out and I am not sure what you are getting at with the rest of your reply. Well if he wants to get his credibility back, he needs to reveal the nature of his smoke and mirrors machine, because other UK meteorologists think he's a looney. He has a credibility gap. I mean, he wouldn't need to reveal the exact brand of tea leaves he uses, just the process. All he has to do is give information out about his results which he is doing. As for others thinking he is looney. Well he is better than they are and they are just unhappy that they dont know what he know and cant do what he does. They look like noobies against him and they have wasted all their education on a subject that is not world class, so to speak. No wonder they turn to name calling. He's "better" because he publishes his own stats, and discards any inconvenient predictions that he got wrong.

Well you know, if you followed the information correctly, you would find out that he gives out information before the event. He also proudly gives out the accuracy of his predictions or test, after the event.

You can do better than this mos.

progressiveslol wrote on Feb 10^th, 2012 at 7:39pm:

Well you know, if you followed the information correctly, you would find out that he gives out information before the event. He also proudly gives out the accuracy of his predictions or test, after the event. You can do better than this mos.

The point I was making is that he never talks about his failed predictions (the majority of them, which magically disappear after the event), and he censors anybody who mentions them on his blog. His "accuracy" is self-announced, and the books are not just slightly cooked. They are well done.

Here is an article in Rational Wiki, complete with some back-up articles

http://rationalwiki.org/wiki/Piers_Corbyn

I'm not sure how anybody can describe himself as an astrophysicist if he flunked his course.

By the way, before you go throwing around Left Wing labels, here is an interesting point about Piers Corbyn:


Quote:

Corbyn also has a history of being an activist in the "International Marxist Group" for squatter's rights

Be careful about who you believe.

muso wrote on Feb 10^th, 2012 at 10:01am:

progressiveslol wrote on Feb 10th, 2012 at 8:10am: He is not government funded, so why should he give the details out and I am not sure what you are getting at with the rest of your reply. Well if he wants to get his credibility back, he needs to reveal the nature of his smoke and mirrors machine, because other UK meteorologists think he's a looney. He has a credibility gap. I mean, he wouldn't need to reveal the exact brand of tea leaves he uses, just the process.

His process is observing the Sun's activity and monitoring the coronal mass ejections (CME's) and the solar winds that follow, and in what direction they are travelling ... ie away or towards Earth.

Nothing airy fairy just good science.