http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Post-election_pendulum_for_the_Australian_federal_election,_2010


You would expect Coalition members who hold marginal seats are feeling pretty good about themselves right now

Non-Coalition marginal seat members are probably sh!tting themselves for the last 12 months

Interesting to not that anything under 58% is considered marginal. Given the ALP has only 31% primaries  ;D ;D ;D ;D this should be higher

The other interesting thing is Rudd holds a 58% margin and is considered "Fairly Safe" with all other QLD seats considered marginal.

If the Carbon Tax hits - QLD are going to savage Rudd/Gillard and his mob

Maqqa wrote on Feb 6^th, 2012 at 3:21pm:

http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Post-election_pendulum_for_the_Australian_federal_election,_2010 You would expect Coalition members who hold marginal seats are feeling pretty good about themselves right now Non-Coalition marginal seat members are probably sh!tting themselves for the last 12 months Interesting to not that anything under 58% is considered marginal. Given the ALP has only 31% primaries  ;D ;D ;D ;D this should be higher The other interesting thing is Rudd holds a 58% margin and is considered "Fairly Safe" with all other QLD seats considered marginal. If the Carbon Tax hits - QLD are going to savage Rudd/Gillard and his mob

Bit rude implying Gillard is a bloke.


As for Hard Righters feeling safe ... thats the way we like it ... makes toppling them, all the more fun.

i.e remember this bloke :
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=ufZUbVPgEw8

____ wrote on Feb 6^th, 2012 at 3:48pm:

Maqqa wrote on Feb 6th, 2012 at 3:21pm: http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Post-election_pendulum_for_the_Australian_federal_election,_2010 You would expect Coalition members who hold marginal seats are feeling pretty good about themselves right now Non-Coalition marginal seat members are probably sh!tting themselves for the last 12 months Interesting to not that anything under 58% is considered marginal. Given the ALP has only 31% primaries  ;D ;D ;D ;D this should be higher The other interesting thing is Rudd holds a 58% margin and is considered "Fairly Safe" with all other QLD seats considered marginal. If the Carbon Tax hits - QLD are going to savage Rudd/Gillard and his mob Bit rude implying Gillard is a bloke. As for Hard Righters feeling safe ... thats the way we like it ... makes toppling them, all the more fun. i.e remember this bloke : http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=ufZUbVPgEw8

True, Julia Gillard is quite probably a very nice woman...
But not as a PM...although that's nothing to do with her personal life...

which is the REAL JULIA? giz... do you know..

I am begininng to think we have more than two,

she doesnt come across as doing the hard yards.. give maggie her due dont recall her backing away from the hard questions..

here we have her telling us she has had to make some HARD DECISIONS...yet when it comes to a hard question she nowhere in sight...

get real.

cods wrote on Feb 6^th, 2012 at 4:37pm:

which is the REAL JULIA? giz... do you know.. I am begininng to think we have more than two, she doesnt come across as doing the hard yards.. give maggie her due dont recall her backing away from the hard questions.. here we have her telling us she has had to make some HARD DECISIONS...yet when it comes to a hard question she nowhere in sight... get real.

is this similar to gutless Abbott backtracking on Workchoices ~ Nuclear ~ Coal Seam Gas ~ Punishing the Unemployed ~ Anti Abortion and so on.

Are there two lame duck hard Right Abbotts?

I, for one, cannot wait to see the slew of Labor MPs in marginal seats go down the gurgler. Perrett, O'Neil, Smyth and Bradbury will be good, but I will salivate when Swan and Saffin go.

matty wrote on Feb 6^th, 2012 at 7:34pm:

I, for one, cannot wait to see the slew of Labor MPs in marginal seats go down the gurgler. Perrett, O'Neil, Smyth and Bradbury will be good, but I will salivate when Swan and Saffin go.

Losing swan wil be gorgeous to watch. Losing adam bant will be fabulous but my favoutie will be watching Oakeshott going down behind a record swing against him. And I hope Gillards seet goes to preferences as well.

longweekend58 wrote on Feb 6^th, 2012 at 7:49pm:

matty wrote on Feb 6th, 2012 at 7:34pm: I, for one, cannot wait to see the slew of Labor MPs in marginal seats go down the gurgler. Perrett, O'Neil, Smyth and Bradbury will be good, but I will salivate when Swan and Saffin go. Losing swan wil be gorgeous to watch. Losing adam bant will be fabulous but my favoutie will be watching Oakeshott going down behind a record swing against him. And I hope Gillards seet goes to preferences as well.

Too right longy! Swan and Saffin will be glorious, but Oakeshott will be something far greater. He probably still thinks that he's in with a chance. Do you think that there's any chance of Gillard losing? She won with a 72-28 2PP, but polling mid last year showed that it's now 58-42.

Labor also looks like losing stalwarts like Werriwa, Kingsford Smith and Lingiari.

The two ALP leadership challenge candidates are Smith and Rudd

Smith - WA - he's on 55.88%. Clive, Gina and Andrew will eat him for breakfast over the carbon tax and they have enough money to do it too. So what will be his stance on the carbon tax?


Rudd - QLD - the March election will be a good barometer. He's on 58% so he'd want to see how big the swings are in similar seats. Exit polls is also important. QLD is also about mining and farming so the carbon tax will be an issue. Rudd will not escape the Clive, Gina and Andrew wealth.

Maqqa wrote on Feb 6^th, 2012 at 8:56pm:

The two ALP leadership challenge candidates are Smith and Rudd Smith - WA - he's on 55.88%. Clive, Gina and Andrew will eat him for breakfast over the carbon tax and they have enough money to do it too. So what will be his stance on the carbon tax? Rudd - QLD - the March election will be a good barometer. He's on 58% so he'd want to see how big the swings are in similar seats. Exit polls is also important. QLD is also about mining and farming so the carbon tax will be an issue. Rudd will not escape the Clive, Gina and Andrew wealth.

Is Smith only on 55.88% I didn't know that. He will probably lose then, as well.

Maqqa wrote on Feb 6^th, 2012 at 8:56pm:

The two ALP leadership challenge candidates are Smith and Rudd Smith - WA - he's on 55.88%. Clive, Gina and Andrew will eat him for breakfast over the carbon tax and they have enough money to do it too. So what will be his stance on the carbon tax? Rudd - QLD - the March election will be a good barometer. He's on 58% so he'd want to see how big the swings are in similar seats. Exit polls is also important. QLD is also about mining and farming so the carbon tax will be an issue. Rudd will not escape the Clive, Gina and Andrew wealth.

So maqqa you are quite happy for Clive, Gina and Andrew to buy the election then tell the liberal government what to do?

bomen_guy wrote on Feb 6^th, 2012 at 9:58pm:

Maqqa wrote on Feb 6th, 2012 at 8:56pm: The two ALP leadership challenge candidates are Smith and Rudd Smith - WA - he's on 55.88%. Clive, Gina and Andrew will eat him for breakfast over the carbon tax and they have enough money to do it too. So what will be his stance on the carbon tax? Rudd - QLD - the March election will be a good barometer. He's on 58% so he'd want to see how big the swings are in similar seats. Exit polls is also important. QLD is also about mining and farming so the carbon tax will be an issue. Rudd will not escape the Clive, Gina and Andrew wealth. So maqqa you are quite happy for Clive, Gina and Andrew to buy the election then tell the liberal government what to do?

How can they buy the election?  ::)

matty wrote on Feb 7^th, 2012 at 6:03am:

bomen_guy wrote on Feb 6th, 2012 at 9:58pm: Maqqa wrote on Feb 6th, 2012 at 8:56pm: The two ALP leadership challenge candidates are Smith and Rudd Smith - WA - he's on 55.88%. Clive, Gina and Andrew will eat him for breakfast over the carbon tax and they have enough money to do it too. So what will be his stance on the carbon tax? Rudd - QLD - the March election will be a good barometer. He's on 58% so he'd want to see how big the swings are in similar seats. Exit polls is also important. QLD is also about mining and farming so the carbon tax will be an issue. Rudd will not escape the Clive, Gina and Andrew wealth. So maqqa you are quite happy for Clive, Gina and Andrew to buy the election then tell the liberal government what to do? How can they buy the election?  ::)

They can't.

But they CAN and DO buy politicians.

And THAT'S what needs to be stopped.

bomen_guy wrote on Feb 6^th, 2012 at 9:58pm:

Maqqa wrote on Feb 6th, 2012 at 8:56pm: The two ALP leadership challenge candidates are Smith and Rudd Smith - WA - he's on 55.88%. Clive, Gina and Andrew will eat him for breakfast over the carbon tax and they have enough money to do it too. So what will be his stance on the carbon tax? Rudd - QLD - the March election will be a good barometer. He's on 58% so he'd want to see how big the swings are in similar seats. Exit polls is also important. QLD is also about mining and farming so the carbon tax will be an issue. Rudd will not escape the Clive, Gina and Andrew wealth. So maqqa you are quite happy for Clive, Gina and Andrew to buy the election then tell the liberal government what to do?

How do you figure this would happen?