February 6, 2012



JULIA Gillard has received a boost in Labor's vote and leads Tony Abbott as preferred prime minister for the first time in nine months, in an Age/Nielsen poll that will give the embattled leader some relief as the government reels from intense speculation about her future.   :)

Labor's primary vote has risen 4 points to 33 per cent since December, while Ms Gillard's approval is up 5 points to 40 per cent. Her preferred-PM rating has increased by 6 points to 48 per cent, ahead of Mr Abbott's 46 per cent, which was steady.

The government has improved its two-party vote by 4 points to 47 per cent, but trails the Coalition on 53 per cent, down 4 points. The Coalition would win an election held now on a swing of about 3 per cent.


But more than one in two voters - 57 per cent, down 4 points since October - prefer Kevin Rudd as leader, compared with 35 per cent, up 5 points, who favour Ms Gillard. The PM is only marginally ahead of her rival among Labor voters. Nearly a quarter (23 per cent) of the Rudd supporters say, however, that the party should stick with Ms Gillard, in the poll of 1400 taken from Thursday to Saturday.

As Ms Gillard warned jittery caucus members against disunity yesterday, and had former prime minister Bob Hawke rev them up at a Lodge barbecue last night, both her supporters and the Rudd camp were confident the leadership would not come to a crunch this week, although Labor MPs believe it must come to a head eventually.

At a three-hour caucus meeting yesterday, Ms Gillard appealed for discipline and an end to MPs backgrounding the media. ''It's important the way we conduct ourselves,'' she said.

Despite slips and destabilising leadership talk, Labor has its highest primary vote since March last year and its best two-party preferred vote since November 2010. But Labor's primary vote is still 5 points lower than at the August 2010 election.

The Coalition's primary vote has dropped 4 points to 45 per cent; the Greens are up 2 points to 13 per cent.   :)

Ms Gillard and Mr Abbott now have similar approval profiles. Mr Abbott's approval is steady on 41 per cent; his disapproval is up a point to 54 per cent. Ms Gillard's disapproval is down 3 points to 55 per cent.

Ms Gillard's net approval is minus 15, which is up 8 points. This is her highest net approval rating since May, when it was minus 9. Mr Abbott's net approval is minus 13, down a point. His approval has been on 41 per cent for four consecutive polls - one point higher than his lowest approval rating of 40 per cent in June 2010.

In Victoria, Labor's fortunes have dramatically turned around since December - it leads 55-45 per cent on a two-party vote.

In an unusual public intervention, media baron Rupert Murdoch entered the fray at the weekend, giving both Ms Gillard and Mr Rudd a kick and professing to be mystified at ''Aussie politics''.

''Can Kevin Rudd really come back and knife Gillard? Weird place mucking up great future,'' he tweeted. ''Gillard once good education minister, now prisoner of minority greenies. Rudd still delusional who nobody could work with. Nobody else?''

Ms Gillard gave a 20-minute speech to caucus, saying 2011 had been a year of tough decisions and this year the results of those would be evident.

A bevy of ministers gave briefings and many caucus members spoke. Backbenchers stressed the need for better communication of the government's message, but they did not explicitly raise the leadership issue or mention Mr Rudd, who is overseas. Mr Hawke told MPs to ''go aggressively on the front foot'' by talking about Labor's considerable achievements and contrasting them with the ''pathetic crew'' that sat opposite.

In a call for unity, he said: ''You are all here because you are part of the ALP. This carries the responsibility of advancing the interests of the party''.

ALP national secretary George Wright briefed the meeting, saying the Labor ''brand'' was good, rating around 40 per cent in the electorate, but the ''product'' only rated about 30 per cent. Ms Gillard told the Seven Network she was very confident in her leadership.

Read more: http://www.theage.com.au/national/lifeline-for-besieged-gillard-20120205-1qzvo.html#ixzz1lXTMmrQW

I'd prefer neiter of them.

They're both equally undesirable as PM.

The Coalition's primary vote has dropped 4 points to 45 per cent; the Greens are up 2 points to 13 per cent. Looks like the Australian Greens, are looking good.   :)

amazing what two points makes to someones day.

it sounds like Craig Emerson has been talking to our Buzz. Now he is trying to claim that polls are worthess, despite being proved right almost every time!

also it is worthnoting that the Neilsen poll has a poor record for accuracy and galaxy and newspoll are the two that everyone takes note of.

and just in case some of you bozos missed it, EVERY poll has the coalition in front by a huge margin. All that differs is the size of the margin.

Kat wrote on Feb 6^th, 2012 at 5:58am:

I'd prefer neiter of them. They're both equally undesirable as PM.

Well you need to pick the least objectionable then....they are currently the only two choices...

And the coalition will still win in a landslide.

Yeah, something to be pumped up about imcrook.

A poll is currently running at the Daily Telegraph.

Can Julia Gillard save labor at the next election?

91.28% say NO.

She is still incompetent, irrespective of what the polls say.
And she is yet to demonstrate otherwise.

wrote on Feb 6^th, 2012 at 5:56am:

February 6, 2012 JULIA Gillard has received a boost in Labor's vote and leads Tony Abbott as preferred prime minister for the first time in nine months, in an Age/Nielsen poll that will give the embattled leader some relief as the government reels from intense speculation about her future.   :) Labor's primary vote has risen 4 points to 33 per cent since December, while Ms Gillard's approval is up 5 points to 40 per cent. Her preferred-PM rating has increased by 6 points to 48 per cent, ahead of Mr Abbott's 46 per cent, which was steady. The government has improved its two-party vote by 4 points to 47 per cent, but trails the Coalition on 53 per cent, down 4 points. The Coalition would win an election held now on a swing of about 3 per cent. But more than one in two voters - 57 per cent, down 4 points since October - prefer Kevin Rudd as leader, compared with 35 per cent, up 5 points, who favour Ms Gillard. The PM is only marginally ahead of her rival among Labor voters. Nearly a quarter (23 per cent) of the Rudd supporters say, however, that the party should stick with Ms Gillard, in the poll of 1400 taken from Thursday to Saturday. As Ms Gillard warned jittery caucus members against disunity yesterday, and had former prime minister Bob Hawke rev them up at a Lodge barbecue last night, both her supporters and the Rudd camp were confident the leadership would not come to a crunch this week, although Labor MPs believe it must come to a head eventually. At a three-hour caucus meeting yesterday, Ms Gillard appealed for discipline and an end to MPs backgrounding the media. ''It's important the way we conduct ourselves,'' she said. Despite slips and destabilising leadership talk, Labor has its highest primary vote since March last year and its best two-party preferred vote since November 2010. But Labor's primary vote is still 5 points lower than at the August 2010 election. The Coalition's primary vote has dropped 4 points to 45 per cent; the Greens are up 2 points to 13 per cent.   :) Ms Gillard and Mr Abbott now have similar approval profiles. Mr Abbott's approval is steady on 41 per cent; his disapproval is up a point to 54 per cent. Ms Gillard's disapproval is down 3 points to 55 per cent. Ms Gillard's net approval is minus 15, which is up 8 points. This is her highest net approval rating since May, when it was minus 9. Mr Abbott's net approval is minus 13, down a point. His approval has been on 41 per cent for four consecutive polls - one point higher than his lowest approval rating of 40 per cent in June 2010. In Victoria, Labor's fortunes have dramatically turned around since December - it leads 55-45 per cent on a two-party vote. In an unusual public intervention, media baron Rupert Murdoch entered the fray at the weekend, giving both Ms Gillard and Mr Rudd a kick and professing to be mystified at ''Aussie politics''. ''Can Kevin Rudd really come back and knife Gillard? Weird place mucking up great future,'' he tweeted. ''Gillard once good education minister, now prisoner of minority greenies. Rudd still delusional who nobody could work with. Nobody else?'' Ms Gillard gave a 20-minute speech to caucus, saying 2011 had been a year of tough decisions and this year the results of those would be evident. A bevy of ministers gave briefings and many caucus members spoke. Backbenchers stressed the need for better communication of the government's message, but they did not explicitly raise the leadership issue or mention Mr Rudd, who is overseas. Mr Hawke told MPs to ''go aggressively on the front foot'' by talking about Labor's considerable achievements and contrasting them with the ''pathetic crew'' that sat opposite. In a call for unity, he said: ''You are all here because you are part of the ALP. This carries the responsibility of advancing the interests of the party''. ALP national secretary George Wright briefed the meeting, saying the Labor ''brand'' was good, rating around 40 per cent in the electorate, but the ''product'' only rated about 30 per cent. Ms Gillard told the Seven Network she was very confident in her leadership. Read more: http://www.theage.com.au/national/lifeline-for-besieged-gillard-20120205-1qzvo.html#ixzz1lXTMmrQW

---
Was that the sympathy vote for her because she had been dragged out of that Canberra function like a bag of spuds?

What about afterwards when it was revealed that her own office had organised this fiasco?

Would the sympathy vote multiply?

Don't be such an ass!

Verge wrote on Feb 6^th, 2012 at 10:12am:

And the coalition will still win in a landslide. Yeah, something to be pumped up about imcrook.

A week is a LONG time in politics

( ... let alone a year and a half)




Howard behind in polls and issues for 2001 campaign
Tuesday, 31 October 2000


The Roy Morgan organisation recently reported that the Liberal Party had recorded its lowest poll rating ever in June 2000. Only 30% of electors were going to vote Liberal. This rose to 33.5% when the National Party vote was added in, and to 40% on a two-party preferred basis. This was not a one-off result. The combined coalition vote has been tracking below 40% from 1998 to the present. The attached graph shows the two-party preferred vote for this year, with the government never pulling ahead of the Opposition



http://www.onlineopinion.com.au/images/article-images/young_poll_history.gif




The graph dramatically illustrates the challenge facing Howard. His good news is that electors are not particularly interested in some of the issues that obsess the media. Women’s Issues, Industrial Relations, Immigration and Indigenous Affairs won’t determine the outcome of the next election. Just as well. Immigration is the only one of these issues that the Coalition is seen as being best to handle.

The bad news is that the ALP is seen as the best to handle the five most important issues. The only important issues where the Coalition is ranked ahead of Labor are Taxation, Interest Rates and Inflation. These are all economic issues, and while they don’t receive the highest ranking of importance, they are the sorts of issues that concern voters when it comes time to vote. However, in most of these issues the Government is only marginally more favoured than Labor


http://www.onlineopinion.com.au/view.asp?article=1826

longweekend58 wrote on Feb 6^th, 2012 at 8:00am:

it sounds like Craig Emerson has been talking to our Buzz. Now he is trying to claim that polls are worthess, despite being proved right almost every time! also it is worthnoting that the Neilsen poll has a poor record for accuracy and galaxy and newspoll are the two that everyone takes note of.

And WHEN the NEXT Newspoll is published - I ( ... or someone else) will POST it

Ditto, Galaxy ( ... though they seem to have dropped out of the game, of late)

Till THEN, I shall post what is most recently AVAILABLE


( ... if it's OK with the police)

More seats for the Greens at the next election..so much for the major parties and their rusted on supporters saying a Green vote was a wasted vote.
;D ;D ;D ;D

Preferred PM?

Kevin Rudd by the looks of things.

But don't tell Shorten or the other faceless hatchet men in the ALP.

buzzanddidj wrote on Feb 6^th, 2012 at 2:57pm:

Verge wrote on Feb 6th, 2012 at 10:12am: And the coalition will still win in a landslide. Yeah, something to be pumped up about imcrook. A week is a LONG time in politics ( ... let alone a year and a half) Howard behind in polls and issues for 2001 campaign Tuesday, 31 October 2000 The Roy Morgan organisation recently reported that the Liberal Party had recorded its lowest poll rating ever in June 2000. Only 30% of electors were going to vote Liberal. This rose to 33.5% when the National Party vote was added in, and to 40% on a two-party preferred basis. This was not a one-off result. The combined coalition vote has been tracking below 40% from 1998 to the present. The attached graph shows the two-party preferred vote for this year, with the government never pulling ahead of the Opposition http://www.onlineopinion.com.au/images/article-images/young_poll_history.gif The graph dramatically illustrates the challenge facing Howard. His good news is that electors are not particularly interested in some of the issues that obsess the media. Women’s Issues, Industrial Relations, Immigration and Indigenous Affairs won’t determine the outcome of the next election. Just as well. Immigration is the only one of these issues that the Coalition is seen as being best to handle. The bad news is that the ALP is seen as the best to handle the five most important issues. The only important issues where the Coalition is ranked ahead of Labor are Taxation, Interest Rates and Inflation. These are all economic issues, and while they don’t receive the highest ranking of importance, they are the sorts of issues that concern voters when it comes time to vote. However, in most of these issues the Government is only marginally more favoured than Labor http://www.onlineopinion.com.au/view.asp?article=1826

the simple difference is that Howard was an acknowledged poltiical genius leading a highly capable government while Gillard jumps from one fiasco to another and leading a government of headless chooks.

buzzanddidj wrote on Feb 6^th, 2012 at 3:05pm:

longweekend58 wrote on Feb 6th, 2012 at 8:00am: it sounds like Craig Emerson has been talking to our Buzz. Now he is trying to claim that polls are worthess, despite being proved right almost every time! also it is worthnoting that the Neilsen poll has a poor record for accuracy and galaxy and newspoll are the two that everyone takes note of. And WHEN the NEXT Newspoll is published - I ( ... or someone else) will POST it Ditto, Galaxy ( ... though they seem to have dropped out of the game, of late) Till THEN, I shall post what is most recently AVAILABLE ( ... if it's OK with the police)

it wil be more bad news so you will not quote it or you will argue with its accuracy. Then nemesis will come in and argue endlessly on the voters not included. And both of you will claim  that the poll is relly bad news for Abbott and good news for Gillard while the margin will imply that labor will suffer a whitlamesque defeat.

it is entertaining to watch you lot in action!

Just thought I might remind you of the answer to the thread...

ABBOTT