Gillard and Abbott still sliding in performance satisfaction

Still 25% vote is away from the old parties

Primary :
ALP 30
Lib 42
Greens 12
Indep 13
Gnats 3

TPP 46/54 (same)

http://menabilly.visibli.com/share/bojoSS

____ wrote on Feb 5^th, 2012 at 9:13pm:

Gillard and Abbott still sliding in performance satisfaction Still 25% vote is away from the old parties Primary : ALP 30 Lib 42 Greens 12 Indep 13 Gnats 3 TPP 46/54 (same) http://menabilly.visibli.com/share/bojoSS

Old news, this is from a week ago.

and he is missing the fact that the Greens are 2% down on last election. not exactly GOOD NEWS for the gay party.

longweekend58 wrote on Feb 5^th, 2012 at 9:30pm:

and he is missing the fact that the Greens are 2% down on last election. not exactly GOOD NEWS for the gay party.

Didn't you know that these results are also a clear indication that we are heading towards another hung parliament?

Greens under the impression Bob Brown's 12% equates to a majority in 2013 so he can form government

Gillard has a lot to answer for giving him this false hope when she did that deal with him

longweekend58 wrote on Feb 5^th, 2012 at 9:30pm:

and he is missing the fact that the Greens are 2% down on last election. not exactly GOOD NEWS for the gay party.

Pop on the 'specs' - old chap ...
They're UP 0.2% from the last electioni

Age/Nielsen poll
Michelle Grattan
February 6, 2012

JULIA Gillard has received a boost in Labor's vote and leads Tony Abbott as preferred prime minister for the first time in nine months, in an Age/Nielsen poll that will give the embattled leader some relief as the government reels from intense speculation about her future.

Labor's primary vote has risen 4 points to 33 per cent since December, while Ms Gillard's approval is up 5 points to 40 per cent. Her preferred-PM rating has increased by 6 points to 48 per cent, ahead of Mr Abbott's 46 per cent, which was steady.

The government has improved its two-party vote by 4 points to 47 per cent, but trails the Coalition on 53 per cent, down 4 points. The Coalition would win an election held now on a swing of about 3 per cent.

Labor has its highest primary vote since March last year and its best two-party preferred vote since November 2010. But Labor's primary vote is still 5 points lower than at the August 2010 election.

The Coalition's primary vote has dropped 4 points to 45 per cent; the Greens are up 2 points to 13 per cent.


http://www.theage.com.au/national/lifeline-for-besieged-gillard-20120205-1qzvo.html#ixzz1lVtNAZDz

buzzanddidj wrote on Feb 5^th, 2012 at 11:25pm:

Age/Nielsen poll Michelle Grattan February 6, 2012 JULIA Gillard has received a boost in Labor's vote and leads Tony Abbott as preferred prime minister for the first time in nine months, in an Age/Nielsen poll that will give the embattled leader some relief as the government reels from intense speculation about her future. Labor's primary vote has risen 4 points to 33 per cent since December, while Ms Gillard's approval is up 5 points to 40 per cent. Her preferred-PM rating has increased by 6 points to 48 per cent, ahead of Mr Abbott's 46 per cent, which was steady. The government has improved its two-party vote by 4 points to 47 per cent, but trails the Coalition on 53 per cent, down 4 points. The Coalition would win an election held now on a swing of about 3 per cent. Labor has its highest primary vote since March last year and its best two-party preferred vote since November 2010. But Labor's primary vote is still 5 points lower than at the August 2010 election. The Coalition's primary vote has dropped 4 points to 45 per cent; the Greens are up 2 points to 13 per cent. http://www.theage.com.au/national/lifeline-for-besieged-gillard-20120205-1qzvo.html#ixzz1lVtNAZDz

6 points is chump change, that can be easily made up in a year and a half, provided Labor don't royally f*ck it up.

It's a testament to Abbott and the Howard Worshippers stranglehold on the Coalition that those preferred leader numbers haven't scared them one bit.

I don't have a lot of faith in Nielsen polls. I pay far more attention to Newspoll, as do most commentators and pundits. Besides, 53-47 is still a thrashing in any man's language.

Labor have polled down in the low 30s and below for over a year and a half now.

They NEED to throw away the carbon tax.

That has been their undoing more than anything.

They will never re-capture votes like mine with it.

Andrei.Hicks wrote on Feb 6^th, 2012 at 12:17am:

Labor have polled down in the low 30s and below for over a year and a half now. They NEED to throw away the carbon tax. That has been their undoing more than anything. They will never re-capture votes like mine with it.

Would you ever vote for the ALP anyway, though? And aren't you in the US?

matty wrote on Feb 6^th, 2012 at 12:21am:

Andrei.Hicks wrote on Feb 6th, 2012 at 12:17am: Labor have polled down in the low 30s and below for over a year and a half now. They NEED to throw away the carbon tax. That has been their undoing more than anything. They will never re-capture votes like mine with it. Would you ever vote for the ALP anyway, though? And aren't you in the US?

Yep I would vote for anyone if their policies were right Matty.
I have voted for various parties in my life, I have no party allegiance - more what is right for my family and the community.
I do live in the USA but am not a citizen and don't vote in their elections.

Andrei.Hicks wrote on Feb 6^th, 2012 at 12:23am:

matty wrote on Feb 6th, 2012 at 12:21am: Andrei.Hicks wrote on Feb 6th, 2012 at 12:17am: Labor have polled down in the low 30s and below for over a year and a half now. They NEED to throw away the carbon tax. That has been their undoing more than anything. They will never re-capture votes like mine with it. Would you ever vote for the ALP anyway, though? And aren't you in the US? Yep I would vote for anyone if their policies were right Matty. I have voted for various parties in my life, I have no party allegiance - more what is right for my family and the community. I do live in the USA but am not a citizen and don't vote in their elections.

But are you allowed to vote in Australia if you live somewhere else permanently?

I have always been very conservative, so I would never vote for any party apart from the Libs (of which I am a member). My parents are left-wing Socialists, and they'll be voting Liberal. My mother used to be die-hard Labor, but now hates their guts.

matty wrote on Feb 6^th, 2012 at 12:26am:

Andrei.Hicks wrote on Feb 6th, 2012 at 12:23am: matty wrote on Feb 6th, 2012 at 12:21am: Andrei.Hicks wrote on Feb 6th, 2012 at 12:17am: Labor have polled down in the low 30s and below for over a year and a half now. They NEED to throw away the carbon tax. That has been their undoing more than anything. They will never re-capture votes like mine with it. Would you ever vote for the ALP anyway, though? And aren't you in the US? Yep I would vote for anyone if their policies were right Matty. I have voted for various parties in my life, I have no party allegiance - more what is right for my family and the community. I do live in the USA but am not a citizen and don't vote in their elections. But are you allowed to vote in Australia if yoy live somewhere else permanently? I have always been very conservative, so I would never vote for any party apart from the Libs (of which I am a member). My parents are left-wing Socialists, and they'll be voting Liberal. My mother used to be die-hard Labor, but now hates their guts.

I thought you used to be a member of the Greens?
I may be thinking of someone else.

You can vote in Australian elections if you are an Australian living elsewhere, as long as you don't vote in that country's election.

Actually one of the busiest polling stations in the Australian Federal Election is Australia House, London.

Andrei.Hicks wrote on Feb 6^th, 2012 at 12:29am:

matty wrote on Feb 6th, 2012 at 12:26am: Andrei.Hicks wrote on Feb 6th, 2012 at 12:23am: matty wrote on Feb 6th, 2012 at 12:21am: Andrei.Hicks wrote on Feb 6th, 2012 at 12:17am: Labor have polled down in the low 30s and below for over a year and a half now. They NEED to throw away the carbon tax. That has been their undoing more than anything. They will never re-capture votes like mine with it. Would you ever vote for the ALP anyway, though? And aren't you in the US? Yep I would vote for anyone if their policies were right Matty. I have voted for various parties in my life, I have no party allegiance - more what is right for my family and the community. I do live in the USA but am not a citizen and don't vote in their elections. But are you allowed to vote in Australia if yoy live somewhere else permanently? I have always been very conservative, so I would never vote for any party apart from the Libs (of which I am a member). My parents are left-wing Socialists, and they'll be voting Liberal. My mother used to be die-hard Labor, but now hates their guts. I thought you used to be a member of the Greens? I may be thinking of someone else. You can vote in Australian elections if you are an Australian living elsewhere, as long as you don't vote in that country's election. Actually one of the busiest polling stations in the Australian Federal Election is Australia House, London.

That was a white lie that become a bit out of hand. I am conservative, and always have been. Most people seem to think that I am extreme-right, for some reason.

Doesn't really matter a great deal about preferred PM as that is not really what we vote for on election day. The poll that matters is thw two-party poll and that shows Labor in for a good ass-whuppin' on voting day! :)

buzzanddidj wrote on Feb 5^th, 2012 at 9:51pm:

longweekend58 wrote on Feb 5th, 2012 at 9:30pm: and he is missing the fact that the Greens are 2% down on last election. not exactly GOOD NEWS for the gay party. Pop on the 'specs' - old chap ... They're UP 0.2% from the last election

actually, they are not. As every pollster knows. the Greens typically poll 2% better than they actually get in elections. the last federal election had them polling 14% on the friday and getting 11.7% on the saturday. the same phenomenon occured in NSW and VIC.  therefore their expect actual votes are in the 9.5-10.0% range

longweekend58 wrote on Feb 6^th, 2012 at 8:12am:

buzzanddidj wrote on Feb 5th, 2012 at 9:51pm: longweekend58 wrote on Feb 5th, 2012 at 9:30pm: and he is missing the fact that the Greens are 2% down on last election. not exactly GOOD NEWS for the gay party. Pop on the 'specs' - old chap ... They're UP 0.2% from the last election actually, they are not. As every pollster knows. the Greens typically poll 2% better than they actually get in elections. the last federal election had them polling 14% on the friday and getting 11.7% on the saturday. the same phenomenon occured in NSW and VIC.  therefore their expect actual votes are in the 9.5-10.0% range

Wrong again, longwhine.

Quote:

It seems Nielsen’s sample of 1400 respondents from its first opinion poll of the year didn’t get the memo: the poll has the Coalition’s two-party preferred lead at 53-47, which although not brilliant for the government in absolute terms is its best result from Nielsen since March last year. The same applies for the primary vote, on which Labor is at 33 per cent, while the Coalition is on 45 per cent and the Greens are on 13 per cent

Even allowing for your imaginary 2 % lower at the polls story, it puts the Greens on at least 11%, pretty much the same as the last election.But being a hypocrite you would allow a margin of error,would you?At least you're consistently WRONG. ;D

Armchair_Politician wrote on Feb 6^th, 2012 at 5:17am:

Doesn't really matter a great deal about preferred PM as that is not really what we vote for on election day. The poll that matters is thw two-party poll and that shows Labor in for a good ass-whuppin' on voting day! :)

dOESN'T REALLY MATTER ABOUT A POLL TWO YEARS OUT FROM AN ELECTION AS,.... WELL,... IT IS TWO YEARS OUT FROM AN ELECTION!

  :D :D :D :D  :o  ::)

Go the NBN! Go you good thing!!

Son,... chuck $20 on that. Yeh, Dad, good eye,... I think I may just do that, yehhhhhhhhhhhh!
  :o  :-[  :-*

matty wrote on Feb 6^th, 2012 at 12:34am:

Andrei.Hicks wrote on Feb 6th, 2012 at 12:29am: matty wrote on Feb 6th, 2012 at 12:26am: Andrei.Hicks wrote on Feb 6th, 2012 at 12:23am: matty wrote on Feb 6th, 2012 at 12:21am: Andrei.Hicks wrote on Feb 6th, 2012 at 12:17am: Labor have polled down in the low 30s and below for over a year and a half now. They NEED to throw away the carbon tax. That has been their undoing more than anything. They will never re-capture votes like mine with it. Would you ever vote for the ALP anyway, though? And aren't you in the US? Yep I would vote for anyone if their policies were right Matty. I have voted for various parties in my life, I have no party allegiance - more what is right for my family and the community. I do live in the USA but am not a citizen and don't vote in their elections. But are you allowed to vote in Australia if yoy live somewhere else permanently? I have always been very conservative, so I would never vote for any party apart from the Libs (of which I am a member). My parents are left-wing Socialists, and they'll be voting Liberal. My mother used to be die-hard Labor, but now hates their guts. I thought you used to be a member of the Greens? I may be thinking of someone else. You can vote in Australian elections if you are an Australian living elsewhere, as long as you don't vote in that country's election. Actually one of the busiest polling stations in the Australian Federal Election is Australia House, London. That was a white lie that become a bit out of hand. I am conservative, and always have been. Most people seem to think that I am extreme-right, for some reason.

http://www.ozpolitic.com/forum/YaBB.pl?num=1328319701

____ wrote on Feb 6^th, 2012 at 6:14pm:

matty wrote on Feb 6th, 2012 at 12:34am: Andrei.Hicks wrote on Feb 6th, 2012 at 12:29am: matty wrote on Feb 6th, 2012 at 12:26am: Andrei.Hicks wrote on Feb 6th, 2012 at 12:23am: matty wrote on Feb 6th, 2012 at 12:21am: Andrei.Hicks wrote on Feb 6th, 2012 at 12:17am: Labor have polled down in the low 30s and below for over a year and a half now. They NEED to throw away the carbon tax. That has been their undoing more than anything. They will never re-capture votes like mine with it. Would you ever vote for the ALP anyway, though? And aren't you in the US? Yep I would vote for anyone if their policies were right Matty. I have voted for various parties in my life, I have no party allegiance - more what is right for my family and the community. I do live in the USA but am not a citizen and don't vote in their elections. But are you allowed to vote in Australia if yoy live somewhere else permanently? I have always been very conservative, so I would never vote for any party apart from the Libs (of which I am a member). My parents are left-wing Socialists, and they'll be voting Liberal. My mother used to be die-hard Labor, but now hates their guts. I thought you used to be a member of the Greens? I may be thinking of someone else. You can vote in Australian elections if you are an Australian living elsewhere, as long as you don't vote in that country's election. Actually one of the busiest polling stations in the Australian Federal Election is Australia House, London. That was a white lie that become a bit out of hand. I am conservative, and always have been. Most people seem to think that I am extreme-right, for some reason. http://www.ozpolitic.com/forum/YaBB.pl?num=1328319701

Your point being...?

skippy. wrote on Feb 6^th, 2012 at 8:22am:

longweekend58 wrote on Feb 6th, 2012 at 8:12am: buzzanddidj wrote on Feb 5th, 2012 at 9:51pm: longweekend58 wrote on Feb 5th, 2012 at 9:30pm: and he is missing the fact that the Greens are 2% down on last election. not exactly GOOD NEWS for the gay party. Pop on the 'specs' - old chap ... They're UP 0.2% from the last election actually, they are not. As every pollster knows. the Greens typically poll 2% better than they actually get in elections. the last federal election had them polling 14% on the friday and getting 11.7% on the saturday. the same phenomenon occured in NSW and VIC.  therefore their expect actual votes are in the 9.5-10.0% range Wrong again, longwhine. Quote: It seems Nielsen’s sample of 1400 respondents from its first opinion poll of the year didn’t get the memo: the poll has the Coalition’s two-party preferred lead at 53-47, which although not brilliant for the government in absolute terms is its best result from Nielsen since March last year. The same applies for the primary vote, on which Labor is at 33 per cent, while the Coalition is on 45 per cent and the Greens are on 13 per cent Even allowing for your imaginary 2 % lower at the polls story, it puts the Greens on at least 11%, pretty much the same as the last election.But being a hypocrite you would allow a margin of error,would you?At least you're consistently WRONG. ;D

it might stretch you intelligence somewhat buyt there have been SIX polls in the last week and this is the only one to give the greens 13%. the rest give them 11-12%.

and Neilsen is considered significantly less accurate than newspoll and galacy. Only the Essential Research polls are discounted more.