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General Discussion >> Federal Politics >> The Federal Snap Election http://www.ozpolitic.com/forum/YaBB.pl?num=1328391850 Message started by Greens_Win on Feb 5th, 2012 at 7:44am |
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Title: The Federal Snap Election Post by Greens_Win on Feb 5th, 2012 at 7:44am
2012 is looking more like the year of a snap election, once K R knifes J G in the back.
Tough choices would confront a recycled PM Rudd LET'S cut to the chase. What would political life be like if Kevin Rudd became PM again? Would there be a quick election? What would happen to the present frontbench? Would the carbon tax be scrapped, maybe before it started? How would Labor-Green relations be? Obviously, answers must be speculative. But the questions will be occupying the minds of ALP MPs weighing up the future. Rudd's previous inclination was to go to an election quickly but he has changed his mind to favour the long haul. He is popular now but support can be so easily squandered. Many in Labor would want him to try to consolidate, to re-establish some public trust in the government. A 2012 poll would also have the disadvantage of throwing elections for the lower and upper houses out of sync. Anything but an instant election would mean big frontbench changes. Anyway, there would almost certainly be resignations after Gillard was deposed. The Rudd camp assumes these would be to the backbench rather than from Parliament - if the latter happened, the government would probably quickly fall. Rudd and Wayne Swan, bitter about each other, surely could not work together as PM and Treasurer. (Mind you, if Swan toughed things out and managed to hang on to the deputyship, it would be an interesting situation.) Gillard would presumably go to the backbench. Realpolitik would mean Rudd and Bill Shorten would have to find an accommodation. Just as, when she became PM, Gillard had to take over most of the Rudd agenda, so he would have to continue most of hers (which was his). There has been speculation he might scrap the carbon and mining taxes. Almost certainly he would not. To walk away from either would further confuse and disillusion voters already fed up with Labor; it would be seen as the worst of expediency. He would probably, however, propose some changes to the carbon plan to lessen its impact until other countries took effective action. Last year there was talk about how the crossbench independents whose support underpins the government would react to a leadership change. It was sometimes said they were a buttress for Gillard. But as her leadership has slipped, the independents' views are being regarded as more irrelevant. It's assumed they'd have to live with whoever was Labor leader and that they'd be unlikely to pull the pin (despite Rob Oakeshott's bolshie comments). They could, however, become more difficult (as Andrew Wilkie already is). On the other hand, one crossbencher not aligned with the government might become closer. In another of those strange twists in politics, Rudd and Bob Katter, who recently founded the Australian Party, have a personal rapport. Rudd PM would be urged by some colleagues to more sharply differentiate the government from the Greens. The Liberal claim that Bob Brown is the real PM is biting in the electorate, according to Labor MPs. Having a stoush with the Greens would not be particularly dangerous for Rudd. As an election approaches, the allies-of-convenience will be increasingly finding ways to promote their separate brands; the ascension of Rudd would accentuate this. With all the history and the complications, Rudd could hardly expect a honeymoon second time round. His start would be rocky. But he'd be there and in his mind he would be vindicated. http://www.brisbanetimes.com.au/opinion/politics/tough-choices-would-confront-a-recycled-pm-rudd-20120204-1qyxa.html |
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Title: Re: The Federal Snap Election Post by Dnarever on Feb 5th, 2012 at 7:48am
The independants have all said that their agreement is with Gillard.
A change of Labor Leadership would possibly lead to the independants going over to the Conservatives and we could easily have a change of government without an election. |
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Title: Re: The Federal Snap Election Post by progressiveslol on Feb 5th, 2012 at 7:52am
The independents are utter idiots. This is the so called stable government they forced on us.
Liberals have been a stable government/party more so than labor for a very long time. Hurry up and implode labor. We will be coming for the greens next. |
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Title: Re: The Federal Snap Election Post by cods on Feb 5th, 2012 at 7:52am
I believe this is a GREAT BIG RED HERRING.. to take our eyes off this DUD govt..
their year finished badly Jenkins and slipper.. and it started badly pokermachines.. and Australia Day... and so it goes on.. they now have THOMO looming like a big dark ugly cloud. if they can take all that out of the headlines then this will do it.. I love the cartoons with the kevin elephant in the room HILARIOUS> I know for a fact that wont do it... having watched musical premiers in NSW they know people wont wear it... and as for the rising of Lazarus.. well I am not sure who they think they are kidding..but anyone I talk too are horrified at the thought of going down that track... Abbott keeps telling them how hopeless she is.... do they really want to prove him correct??????????? |
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Title: Re: The Federal Snap Election Post by cods on Feb 5th, 2012 at 7:53am Dnarever wrote on Feb 5th, 2012 at 7:48am:
I think that was before the wilkie deal fell off the track.. |
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Title: Re: The Federal Snap Election Post by nairbe on Feb 5th, 2012 at 7:53am
Iy's all simply too late and no one is listening nor cares less. Labor are gone, finished and sunk thanks to their own stupidity. They hold all the aces with policy and a complete idiot as opposition leader and shadow treasurer but yet they could not argue two fly's climbing a wall. They will allow one of the most thick leader ever to be PM in Abbott like Vic did and WA and QLD are about to do. Have any of you heard the horse poo that Campbell Newman talks and the electorate laps it up not because he has any idea what he is doing but because they want to kill a government to feel good about themselves and apease their own guilt over poor voting a decade ago when greed was good. Now it is ingrained in our behaviour.
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Title: Re: The Federal Snap Election Post by Greens_Win on Feb 5th, 2012 at 7:54am Dnarever wrote on Feb 5th, 2012 at 7:48am:
So a minority government without control of the Senate. That would make T A a lame duck P M |
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Title: Re: The Federal Snap Election Post by cods on Feb 5th, 2012 at 7:54am
does anyone really want a govt that is stuck together by independents????? groan....
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Title: Re: The Federal Snap Election Post by Greens_Win on Feb 5th, 2012 at 7:58am cods wrote on Feb 5th, 2012 at 7:54am:
I desire a government more reflective of Australia. A Labor or Liberal Majority is not a reflection. A hung parliament where many have influence is. Greens and Independents are at their best within a minority government. |
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Title: Re: The Federal Snap Election Post by progressiveslol on Feb 5th, 2012 at 8:00am ____ wrote on Feb 5th, 2012 at 7:58am:
Yes, that is the best they can ever expect and thanks to the failed experiment, it will not happen again. |
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Title: Re: The Federal Snap Election Post by Greens_Win on Feb 5th, 2012 at 8:02am progressiveslol wrote on Feb 5th, 2012 at 8:00am:
Yet both old party leaders are more unpopular than popular. That means Australians will not reward either with majority government. So to do this, the old parties must be put last and second to last when voting. |
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Title: Re: The Federal Snap Election Post by progressiveslol on Feb 5th, 2012 at 8:06am ____ wrote on Feb 5th, 2012 at 8:02am:
You have to get more politically savvy and learn to read polls. Being optimistic will not get you anywhere in politics. |
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Title: Re: The Federal Snap Election Post by Dnarever on Feb 5th, 2012 at 8:07am cods wrote on Feb 5th, 2012 at 7:54am:
That is the reality we voted for and can work very well with a slightly less obnoxious opposition and more external honesty and respect from areas like the media. Who knows the media may be less likely to want to work so hard to destabilise a conservative government and it would be nice to see the shoe on the other foot but traditionally Labor are more genuine in opposition and tend to make decisions for the country's benefit - they typically are not an opposition of the No No No NO persuasion. You could not argue that the Liberal opposition are not the most obstructive opposition Australia has ever had with the least concern for Australias position even worse that the Fraser opposition. |
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Title: Re: The Federal Snap Election Post by progressiveslol on Feb 5th, 2012 at 8:12am Dnarever wrote on Feb 5th, 2012 at 8:07am:
Please can someone give me a bucket |
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Title: Re: The Federal Snap Election Post by Greens_Win on Feb 5th, 2012 at 8:20am progressiveslol wrote on Feb 5th, 2012 at 8:06am:
25% of the voting public don't support the old parties ... this before LibLab CSG destruction of people's lives and homes in the cities of Sydney and Brisbane and states of NSW, Vic, WA and Qld ... is an election issue. i am positive this 25% will swell towards 50% |
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Title: Re: The Federal Snap Election Post by Dnarever on Feb 5th, 2012 at 8:22am progressiveslol wrote on Feb 5th, 2012 at 8:12am:
No dont fill it with water and put your head into it - You are appreciated by someone and do in fact have some value. |
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Title: Re: The Federal Snap Election Post by progressiveslol on Feb 5th, 2012 at 8:22am ____ wrote on Feb 5th, 2012 at 8:20am:
So be optimistic then. That is your choice. |
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Title: Re: The Federal Snap Election Post by Greens_Win on Feb 5th, 2012 at 8:23am progressiveslol wrote on Feb 5th, 2012 at 8:12am:
Dnarever has a point. Liberals have taken it on themselves to be extreme in negativity in opposition. |
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Title: Re: The Federal Snap Election Post by Maqqa on Feb 5th, 2012 at 8:24am ____ wrote on Feb 5th, 2012 at 8:23am:
Can't remember when Bob Brown was positive Can't remember when Gillard was positive while in opposition |
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Title: Re: The Federal Snap Election Post by progressiveslol on Feb 5th, 2012 at 8:26am Dnarever wrote on Feb 5th, 2012 at 8:22am:
Well I would hope so, as it only matters if I value me and I do. I do hope you stop hating on yourself one day and stop being a hateful lefty. |
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Title: Re: The Federal Snap Election Post by Greens_Win on Feb 5th, 2012 at 8:27am Maqqa wrote on Feb 5th, 2012 at 8:24am:
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=bqOUe-VJiRI |
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Title: Re: The Federal Snap Election Post by salad in on Feb 5th, 2012 at 8:31am ____ wrote on Feb 5th, 2012 at 7:44am:
I look forward to a return to a more gentle time under Rudd’s stewardship. A time when a man doffed his hat when a lady walked by. A time when a man relinquished his seat on the bus in order that a lady might sit. Yes, we yearn for those days of tennis in the afternoon and cocktails at 6pm. One thing that marked those days when Rudd was in charge was his outstanding 8000-word essay that appeared in the Monthly. Rudd was accused of plagiarising part of that essay (some of it was lifted from an article in the journal Foreign Affairs) but so what. When was an Australian politician ever accused of having an original thought? Anyway, his essay forms part of the economics module being taught at the Kazakh Academy of Labour and Social Relations. Mark my words, Kazakhstan is a sleeping giant. Bring back the 21st Century’s wunderkind Kevin Michael Rudd. |
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Title: Re: The Federal Snap Election Post by olde.sault on Feb 5th, 2012 at 8:35am progressiveslol wrote on Feb 5th, 2012 at 8:12am:
-------- This Green idiot takes too much space. Who does he think will reward him eventually? Bob Brown? LOL! The Greens are nearly finished mainly because their policies and blackmail of Gillard caused power rises and the carbon tax that'll make power more inaccessible to struggling families. As for disliking Liberals? How was life under Howard before the unions' lies about "WorkChoices" lost them an election? Why would they hate Abbott - because he is a Catholic? Would they have preferred a Muslim PM? Hate (envy) the Liberals if you must but at least, there wasn't billion-dollar wastage under them nor the in-party instability. |
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Title: Re: The Federal Snap Election Post by Greens_Win on Feb 5th, 2012 at 8:44am olde.sault wrote on Feb 5th, 2012 at 8:35am:
Liberals (and Labor) want dangerous coal seam gas mines under the cities of Sydney and Brisbane and regional NSW/Qld ... to start with. CSG mines that have caused earthquakes in the UK and the US. CSG mines that risk our limited reserve of fresh water, that risks our food security and so food price stability. LibLab want to risk the health and lives of Australians because they are knackered due to the coal lobby owning these two old parties. A vote for the old parties is a vote for the Greenhouse Mafia ... a vote against democracy. |
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Title: Re: The Federal Snap Election Post by blackadder on Feb 5th, 2012 at 8:44am
A Labor or Liberal Majority is not a reflection.
Uh???? |
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Title: Re: The Federal Snap Election Post by progressiveslol on Feb 5th, 2012 at 8:49am ____ wrote on Feb 5th, 2012 at 8:44am:
If all you are hanging your hat on is CSG, then you are in trouble, but we already knew that. |
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Title: Re: The Federal Snap Election Post by Greens_Win on Feb 5th, 2012 at 8:50am blackadder wrote on Feb 5th, 2012 at 8:44am:
Polling shown nether Lib or Lab deserve majority government. Polling has not change that drastically since the last election result ... a hung parliament ... a hung parliament voters new was on the table prior to voting. People will not reward either old party with control of both houses so this makes both lame and lame ducks. |
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Title: Re: The Federal Snap Election Post by blackadder on Feb 5th, 2012 at 8:51am
You are appreciated by someone and do in fact have some value.
Can't say the same about you DNA. |
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Title: Re: The Federal Snap Election Post by Dnarever on Feb 5th, 2012 at 8:52am progressiveslol wrote on Feb 5th, 2012 at 8:26am:
I don't hate anyone. |
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Title: Re: The Federal Snap Election Post by Greens_Win on Feb 5th, 2012 at 8:58am progressiveslol wrote on Feb 5th, 2012 at 8:49am:
Not the only issue at the next election although consider this Government and opposition Ministers, including Abbott and Hockey have seats in the firing line of CSG endangering home values and health. Opposition to coal seam gas could cause both Abbott and Hockey being dumped for those that oppose CGS mining under voter's homes. Some Australian right wing voters are known to vote selfishly ... do you really think they will put Abbott/Hockey before their homes? |
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Title: Re: The Federal Snap Election Post by Greens_Win on Feb 5th, 2012 at 9:00am
So if Abbott loses his seat due to CSG,
Hockey Loses due to CSG Turnbull loses due to CSG etc etc Who will lead Libs in opposition after the election. |
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Title: Re: The Federal Snap Election Post by Maqqa on Feb 5th, 2012 at 9:04am ____ wrote on Feb 5th, 2012 at 9:00am:
If these people lose the election due to the CSG then Bob Brown would have 80% primaries - anyone prepared to make this prediction? even Greens_Win would not be prepared to think of this posibility because Greens won't break double digit |
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Title: Re: The Federal Snap Election Post by corporate_whitey on Feb 5th, 2012 at 9:04am ____ wrote on Feb 5th, 2012 at 9:00am:
I stopped voting several years ago, the political class is a dictatorship and is best understood as one corrupted entity. 8-) |
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Title: Re: The Federal Snap Election Post by progressiveslol on Feb 5th, 2012 at 9:07am Dnarever wrote on Feb 5th, 2012 at 8:52am:
Yeh we can see that ::) |
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Title: Re: The Federal Snap Election Post by Greens_Win on Feb 5th, 2012 at 9:08am Maqqa wrote on Feb 5th, 2012 at 9:04am:
Independents can beat sitting Lib Lab ministers on an issue of CSG at the next election. Independents and Greens together can kick out the coal lobby representatives like Albo and Scott Morrison, from inner west Sydney. Why risk your home and health so Lib Lab CSG supporters can risk it's value. And Macca, 50.01% TPP wins ... 80% isn't a requirement. |
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Title: Re: The Federal Snap Election Post by Dnarever on Feb 5th, 2012 at 9:11am progressiveslol wrote on Feb 5th, 2012 at 9:07am:
Who do I hate? - I just tried to save your life. OK I hate smilies and always delete them. I'm not sorry about that though. |
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Title: Re: The Federal Snap Election Post by corporate_whitey on Feb 5th, 2012 at 9:13am
The Greens and Independents are an integral part of the corrupt criminal dictatorship the political class have formed. 8-)
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Title: Re: The Federal Snap Election Post by progressiveslol on Feb 5th, 2012 at 9:14am Dnarever wrote on Feb 5th, 2012 at 9:11am:
::) |
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Title: Re: The Federal Snap Election Post by Maqqa on Feb 5th, 2012 at 9:15am ____ wrote on Feb 5th, 2012 at 9:08am:
then you believe the Greens will get 50.01% TPP based on CSG and everything else the Greens represents :D :D :D |
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Title: Re: The Federal Snap Election Post by Greens_Win on Feb 5th, 2012 at 9:22am Maqqa wrote on Feb 5th, 2012 at 9:15am:
in some seats, its possible ... especially when CSG destruction of voter's homes and lives are thrown into the mix. http://www.abc.net.au/elections/federal/2010/guide/gray.htm |
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Title: Re: The Federal Snap Election Post by gizmo_2655 on Feb 5th, 2012 at 9:51am ____ wrote on Feb 5th, 2012 at 9:22am:
And how will that go, now that neither of the major parties will preference Greens?? |
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Title: Re: The Federal Snap Election Post by Greens_Win on Feb 5th, 2012 at 10:04am
so Labor will preference Tony Abbott in Warringah, over Greens' local candidate.
and Liberals will preference Peter Garrett in Kingsford Smith, over the local Greens candidate. Imagine how much ammunition this would give the local Greens candidates and wider media. Just reinforces ... if voters require protection of their homes and health, LibLab must be put last and 2nd last. |
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Title: Re: The Federal Snap Election Post by Maqqa on Feb 5th, 2012 at 10:05am
Adam Bandt - good bye!
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Title: Re: The Federal Snap Election Post by Greens_Win on Feb 5th, 2012 at 10:07am Maqqa wrote on Feb 5th, 2012 at 10:05am:
Are you leaving Melbourne ... back to Adelaide with you then |
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Title: Re: The Federal Snap Election Post by Maqqa on Feb 5th, 2012 at 10:07am ____ wrote on Feb 5th, 2012 at 10:04am:
It's ONE seat - no damage points Even if you come up with 5 more - still no damage No damage because we can say that it was Bob Brown's hands that was up Gillard's clacker therefore we would choose the deep blue sea over the Green devil |
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Title: Re: The Federal Snap Election Post by Maqqa on Feb 5th, 2012 at 10:09am ____ wrote on Feb 5th, 2012 at 10:07am:
I prefer to fly over teleconferencing now just to piss you guys off I can afford it so why not!! |
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Title: Re: The Federal Snap Election Post by Greens_Win on Feb 5th, 2012 at 10:17am Maqqa wrote on Feb 5th, 2012 at 10:07am:
You can say any lie you like yet voters expect lies from the old parties. Liberals are as spent as Labor. They have no political collateral left. Labor is responsible for Labor decisions ... attempting to blame the Greens just shows you can not find fault with the honesty of the Greens to do as they pledge on election promises. Look and Learn from the Greens on how to grow political honesty capital amongst the voting public. |
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Title: Re: The Federal Snap Election Post by gizmo_2655 on Feb 5th, 2012 at 10:19am ____ wrote on Feb 5th, 2012 at 10:04am:
Or Liberal and Labor will just preference the smaller parties and Independents before the Greens candidates |
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Title: Re: The Federal Snap Election Post by Greens_Win on Feb 5th, 2012 at 10:20am Maqqa wrote on Feb 5th, 2012 at 10:09am:
Woo Hoo, you invested 40 bucks to fly Adelaide to Avalon, and return. Tiger's best Adelady customer? |
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Title: Re: The Federal Snap Election Post by Greens_Win on Feb 5th, 2012 at 10:22am gizmo_2655 wrote on Feb 5th, 2012 at 10:19am:
Australian Communist Party, Family Fist and One Nation ? |
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Title: Re: The Federal Snap Election Post by philperth2010 on Feb 5th, 2012 at 10:31am progressiveslol wrote on Feb 5th, 2012 at 7:52am:
For that reason I do not care if Labor fall....Although Abbott will be a disaster for Australia the influence of the Greens has been nothing short of a disgrace!!! |
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Title: Re: The Federal Snap Election Post by gizmo_2655 on Feb 5th, 2012 at 10:36am ____ wrote on Feb 5th, 2012 at 10:22am:
Or Shooters and Fishers Party, Christian Democratic Party (Fred Nile Group), Katter's Australian Party, Secular Party of Australia, The First Nations Political Party.... There are currently 33 political parties registered in Australia, including the Greens, the Liberal and Labor parties......not counting the various state and federal branches.... So there's plenty to choose from.... |
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Title: Re: The Federal Snap Election Post by Andrei.Hicks on Feb 5th, 2012 at 11:00am Maqqa wrote on Feb 5th, 2012 at 10:09am:
I used to be a fan of teleconferencing Macca. I have had some bad experiences lately though, my line dropped out for 5 mins on one call and I ended up with $4m more in budget costs because I couldn't argue back. Sometimes its worthwhile being there - no matter what the cost in your time or budget. |
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