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http://www.ozpolitic.com/forum/YaBB.pl Member Run Boards >> Finance and Economics >> Nostradamus Time - Predictions Anyone? http://www.ozpolitic.com/forum/YaBB.pl?num=1308800046 Message started by perceptions_now on Jun 23^rd, 2011 at 1:34pm

Title: Nostradamus Time - Predictions Anyone?
Post by perceptions_now on Jun 23^rd, 2011 at 1:34pm

longweekend58 wrote on Jun 23^rd, 2011 at 12:39pm:

perceptions_now wrote on Jun 22^nd, 2011 at 10:40pm:

longweekend58 wrote on Jun 22^nd, 2011 at 6:01pm:

Why? because my predictions were right and yours were wrong? surely that makes YOU the idiot.

Because your position has no reasoning, besides I'm right & your wrong???

It's nowhere!

why does there have to be reasoning in such a simple matter? My predictions were right and yours were wrong. it is that SIMPLE.

I did have my reasoning at the time and stil do. But as if to underline the point, the fact my predictions were accurate would imply my reasoning was superior to yours.

So, what are your Economic & Political "predictions" for the Australia, US, UK, European, Chinese & Globally, for the next year, 5 years, 10 years & 20 years?

And WHY?

I'll save them for posterity and feed "your predictions" back at the appropriate time.

Much of my thoughts & reasoning, are already out there, but I will recast them, for the above format & post them here, shortly!

So, aside from LW's predictions, which will most likely consist of "more of the same", any & all are welcome to post Predictions on Economics, Politics & other issues and we will compare them at appropraite times, for accuracy.

Please include reasoning, because even a stopped clock can be right twice a day, but if we know your reasoning then we can say you were right, for the right reasons, it makes a world of difference.

Title: Re: Nostradamus Time - Predictions Anyone?
Post by perceptions_now on Jun 23^rd, 2011 at 2:43pm

Political Predictions
1) The Liberal Party will win the next Federal Election.
Because the Australian Public will hope that the Liberals can deliver better Economic outcomes than Labor will be.
That hope will not be born out by reality.
It would be surprising to see the Feds go to a full term election.

Title: Re: Nostradamus Time - Predictions Anyone?
Post by dsmithy70 on Jun 23^rd, 2011 at 2:49pm

Doesn't it all end on the 21/12/2012?

Title: Re: Nostradamus Time - Predictions Anyone?
Post by bogarde73 on Jun 23^rd, 2011 at 2:55pm

Economic:
1. The US will be reduced to being a client state of China. It's nearly there now.
2. The euro may not survive and the EU may divide into two or three political blocks with trade treaties like the original agreements.
3. The global economy will continue to lurch along between periods of bust & boom.

Political:
1. The western Pacific will become a Chinese sea and the American navy will be dwarfed by the combined forces of China & India, which already has about the third biggest navy.
2, The Indian Ocean will become much more important in global politics and therefore Australia's west will become more strategic. The US will increasingly have major bases in WA.

Title: Re: Nostradamus Time - Predictions Anyone?
Post by perceptions_now on Jun 23^rd, 2011 at 5:02pm

Economic Predictions
1) Bewteen now and the end of 2012, it will become abundantly evident to almost all, that a Global Economic slowdown, of once in history proportions is underway!

This Slowdown, Recession, Depression will be like a Boa Constrictor, it will strangle the life out of you first, then swallow you whole!

There are a number of factors coming together to form this event, including -
a) The Baby Boomer Bust
Where Demand for many Products & Services, will first slow, then actually Decline over a 20-30 year period, as Baby Boomers first Retire, then start to die.
This is the natural & logical conclusion, to an 80-100 year transition from the first Boomer Birth, to the Last Boomer death.

b) Peak Energy
The great Economic growth Enabler of the modern era is now dying and along with that death, will go the tremendous amounts of spare Energy capacity, which has enabled the growth in Population to proceed at such a rapid speed.

I hear some say, the King is dead, long live the next King!

Problems is that for many of the functions where Oil is used there is no heir apparent and even where it is possible, the transition period is many decades on a Global basis, which is much more time than we actually have left.

c) Debt
In many countries of the world, such as the USA, UK, the Piigs of Europe & many more, Debt is already beyond control.

Those where Debt is not already a massive problem, like Australia and a select group of other countries, will soon be caught up by the Boomer & Peak Energy Busts.

As I have said previously, Good luck & watch the Debt.

Title: Re: Nostradamus Time - Predictions Anyone?
Post by stryder110011 on Jun 23^rd, 2011 at 5:13pm

Quote:

a) The Baby Boomer Bust
Where Demand for many Products & Services, will first slow, then actually Decline over a 20-30 year period, as Baby Boomers first Retire, then start to die.
This is the natural & logical conclusion, to an 80-100 year transition from the first Boomer Birth, to the Last Boomer death.

b) Peak Energy
The great Economic growth Enabler of the modern era is now dying and along with that death, will go the tremendous amounts of spare Energy capacity, which has enabled the growth in Population to proceed at such a rapid speed.

;D ;D ;D, God Alimighty your so pessimistic, Perceptions now

Title: Re: Nostradamus Time - Predictions Anyone?
Post by stryder110011 on Jun 23^rd, 2011 at 5:15pm

Quote:

;D Hey Perceptions, I THINK YOU FORGOT TO MENTION THAT THE EARTH WILL BE SWALLOWED UP BY TOO MUCH CO2 OR GLOBAL WARMING TO FEED YOUR PESSIMISM.

Title: Re: Nostradamus Time - Predictions Anyone?
Post by stryder110011 on Jun 23^rd, 2011 at 5:19pm

Hey Perceptions, have you got anymore pessimistic predictions that I can be amused about ????

Title: Re: Nostradamus Time - Predictions Anyone?
Post by gizmo_2655 on Jun 23^rd, 2011 at 5:33pm

Which 'Nostradamus' predictions?? Because there have been like 10 or 15 'End of the World' dates associated with Nostradamus' predictions so far..

AND all the 'other' predictions, have the same number of variables involved

Title: Re: Nostradamus Time - Predictions Anyone?
Post by adelcrow on Jun 23^rd, 2011 at 5:38pm

In 20 yrs time I will be at the right wing conservative old codgers protests whinging about everything the govt tries to do.
Oh what fun..I can hardly wait :)

Title: Re: Nostradamus Time - Predictions Anyone?
Post by longweekend58 on Jun 23^rd, 2011 at 7:04pm

stryder wrote on Jun 23^rd, 2011 at 5:19pm:

Hey Perceptions, have you got anymore pessimistic predictions that I can be amused about ????

this thread was caused by me because I had the audacity to remind pinhead that my predictions of 4 years ago turned out pretty right and his were universally and massively wrong.

sore losers are entertaining.

Title: Re: Nostradamus Time - Predictions Anyone?
Post by perceptions_now on Jun 23^rd, 2011 at 7:44pm

longweekend58 wrote on Jun 23^rd, 2011 at 7:04pm:

stryder wrote on Jun 23^rd, 2011 at 5:19pm:

Hey Perceptions, have you got anymore pessimistic predictions that I can be amused about ????

There are a few major differences between us LW/Stryder, including -
1) I am willing to provide, clear predictions.
2) I am willing to provide, clear resons for my predictions.
3) I understand that the Political, Economic & Physical world, in which we live, is not static, it does change and I look at the variables that are likely to force change, as I consider how they may change the future.
4) I am not restrained by the restrictions imposed, by being a Right wing Conservative or a Left wing activist.

None of which includes, I right & your wrong!

So, I don't notice either of you, yet putting your cohunes on the line.

Title: Re: Nostradamus Time - Predictions Anyone?
Post by longweekend58 on Jun 23^rd, 2011 at 8:17pm

perceptions_now wrote on Jun 23^rd, 2011 at 7:44pm:

longweekend58 wrote on Jun 23^rd, 2011 at 7:04pm:

stryder wrote on Jun 23^rd, 2011 at 5:19pm:

Hey Perceptions, have you got anymore pessimistic predictions that I can be amused about ????

as usual, pinhead you miss the acid test of a 'prophet' whish is BEING CORRECT. your reasoning is worthless if you are wrong and only of some value if you are RIGHT. and since your detailed ad nauseum predictions have been off by a wide margine no one cares about your flawed reasoning. you got it wrong. suck it up and ask yourself why or else you wil be no better than that idiot predicting the Rapture (several times) and getting it wrong. if your methodology remains the same the results wil always be the same and in your case that means BEING WRONG.

move on.

Title: Re: Nostradamus Time - Predictions Anyone?
Post by life_goes_on on Jun 23^rd, 2011 at 8:24pm

Too much random sh!t happens for anybody to accurately predict the future as far as politics and the economy go.

You might have a reasonable success rate when it comes to short term predictions, but once you start adding the years to your prediction range you have eff all chance of being any more accurate than pure chance.

Title: Re: Nostradamus Time - Predictions Anyone?
Post by salad in on Jun 23^rd, 2011 at 8:36pm

I'd like to go on the record and predict that the next Australian of the year will be a close race between Damir Dokic and Mamdouh Habib.

Title: Re: Nostradamus Time - Predictions Anyone?
Post by perceptions_now on Jun 23^rd, 2011 at 8:54pm

longweekend58 wrote on Jun 23^rd, 2011 at 8:17pm:

perceptions_now wrote on Jun 23^rd, 2011 at 7:44pm:

longweekend58 wrote on Jun 23^rd, 2011 at 7:04pm:

stryder wrote on Jun 23^rd, 2011 at 5:19pm:

Hey Perceptions, have you got anymore pessimistic predictions that I can be amused about ????

So many words, just to say, your not willing to put your cohunes on the line?

And, the reason you are reluctant is, your likely to be proven wrong!

Title: Re: Nostradamus Time - Predictions Anyone?
Post by perceptions_now on Jun 23^rd, 2011 at 9:20pm

Life_goes_on wrote on Jun 23^rd, 2011 at 8:24pm:

I agree there is a lot of random chance involved!

However, the chances of correctly predicting events actually increases, along with numbers & time.

In other words, the chances of correctly predicting the reactions of one or a few people, over a short period of time, is pretty much hit & miss.

However, with a greater the number of people and a longer the period of time, the chances of correct predictions is actually better, providing you correctly assess the likely trend & changing variables and you are not saddled with pre-existing fixations.

An example of time versus timing, is the current GFC!

Given the random possibilities of Politics, Economics & the Physical environment, it may be that some of the effects of the major factors involved, could mask &/or hide what is happening, on a tempoary basis.

However, over the medium to longer term, no matter what the Politicians or Economists try, they can not repair that which has been totally destroyed and the GFC will again come back, more destructive than before.

And that, is why I have repeatedly said, that the GFC will be obvious to almost all, by the end of 2012, because that should leave sufficient time for the Politicians to run out of their "fixes" and "other tricks".

Title: Re: Nostradamus Time - Predictions Anyone?
Post by philperth2010 on Jun 23^rd, 2011 at 9:54pm

The carbon tax will be passed!!!

The mining tax will be passed!!!

The NBN will go ahead!!!

Never let the future disturb you. You will meet it, if you have to, with the same weapons of reason which today arm you against the present.
Marcus Aurelius Antoninus (121 AD - 180 AD), Meditations, 200 A.D.

Title: Re: Nostradamus Time - Predictions Anyone?
Post by GoddyofOz on Jun 23^rd, 2011 at 10:02pm

I actually predict another hung parliament, simply because Abbott won't last the next two years without making a dick of himself at some stage.

The political climate is all one way at the moment, but that can hardly be attributed to Abbott. That guy has zero policies to talk about, only shootdowns on the Government.

As for economics, I think the focus will be entirely on the impending doom of the Euro. Who knows what effect the death of that currency will have on the EU. Revolutions? Civil Unrest? Maybe even War?

As always though, Australia will only get richer, whether we temporarily hit deficit or not.

Title: Re: Nostradamus Time - Predictions Anyone?
Post by perceptions_now on Jun 23^rd, 2011 at 11:54pm

Political Predictions
2) The Liberal Party will win the next Queensland Election.
Because the Queensland Public will hope that the Liberals can deliver better Economic outcomes than Labor will be.
That hope will not be born out by reality.
They will also have had enough of Labor, after it (Labor) have been in power since 1989, except for a brief couple of years under Robert Borbidge, between 1996-1998.
In Politics, longevity breeds problems!

Title: Re: Nostradamus Time - Predictions Anyone?
Post by GoddyofOz on Jun 23^rd, 2011 at 11:59pm

perceptions_now wrote on Jun 23^rd, 2011 at 11:54pm:

I have to disagree. Love her or hate her, Bligh's performance during the summer disasters was unprecedented. Yes, there is still a shitload of money left in the Premiers fund, but there must be an explainable reason for that, mostly to do with arseholes making false claims.

However, more so then Bligh, I have yet to meet one person who likes Campbell Newman. The man is an idiot, period.

Title: Re: Nostradamus Time - Predictions Anyone?
Post by bobbythebat1 on Jun 24^th, 2011 at 12:01am

An evil homosexual will become President of the United States
& this will usher in the return of Jesus & the end times. ;D

Title: Re: Nostradamus Time - Predictions Anyone?
Post by perceptions_now on Jun 24^th, 2011 at 12:10am

GoddyofOz wrote on Jun 23^rd, 2011 at 11:59pm:

perceptions_now wrote on Jun 23^rd, 2011 at 11:54pm:

You may be correct and you are entitled to your prediction!

However, to add to my predictions -
Political Predictions
3) The Libs complete a clean sweep
I suspect that we are now in transition from being completely Labor, in all states & Federally, to being all Liberal, for reasons similar to my Queensland prediction.
However, the Publics hope that the Liberals will be able to wave a magic wand and turn around the slowing Australian Economy, will not prove to be realistic, nor will it become reality.
In fact, the Economic situation in OZ will deteriorate, as the Liberals follow their past, which will now worsen the situation, as AUS-terity will actually exacerbate an already worsening OZ Economy!

Title: Re: Nostradamus Time - Predictions Anyone?
Post by perceptions_now on Jun 24^th, 2011 at 12:17am

Not a prediction, but hasn't anyone wondered why?

Why the price of Oil has dropped recently from a high of around $114 barrel (WTi), to just over $90 a barrel today.

And, its done that whilst the US$ has actual risen nearly 3 full cents!

As I said, no prediction, just an observation. But I can make a suggestion for the decrease and that is because the big players are expecting a large Decline in Demand, from a slowing Global Economy!

Btw, the DOW has opened & is now DOWN 185, at 11,924.

Title: Re: Nostradamus Time - Predictions Anyone?
Post by vegitamite on Jun 24^th, 2011 at 9:32am

I predict that we have just lived through Peak Abbott. And that Abbott will decline soon at a rappid pace.

Title: Re: Nostradamus Time - Predictions Anyone?
Post by longweekend58 on Jun 24^th, 2011 at 12:24pm

perceptions_now wrote on Jun 23^rd, 2011 at 8:54pm:

longweekend58 wrote on Jun 23^rd, 2011 at 8:17pm:

perceptions_now wrote on Jun 23^rd, 2011 at 7:44pm:

longweekend58 wrote on Jun 23^rd, 2011 at 7:04pm:

stryder wrote on Jun 23^rd, 2011 at 5:19pm:

Hey Perceptions, have you got anymore pessimistic predictions that I can be amused about ????

So many words, just to say, your not willing to put your cohunes on the line?

And, the reason you are reluctant is, your likely to be proven wrong!

I wil make my future predictions once you have the integrity to admit yours totally failed. no point in me making predictions which you will then misinterpret, rewrite while doing the same to all of yours.

pinhead, you are always wrong. you will be right a few times by good luck but mainly your rationale is pure doom-and-gloom which is why you are so often wrong.

Title: Re: Nostradamus Time - Predictions Anyone?
Post by longweekend58 on Jun 24^th, 2011 at 12:26pm

perceptions_now wrote on Jun 23^rd, 2011 at 9:20pm:

Life_goes_on wrote on Jun 23^rd, 2011 at 8:24pm:

this explains why you are always wrong. you actually beleive that the further into the future you go the BETTER the prediction? im not sure that ANYone actually subscribes to that nonsense.

Title: Re: Nostradamus Time - Predictions Anyone?
Post by longweekend58 on Jun 24^th, 2011 at 12:34pm

My prediction is that within 3 years there wil be no labor government of any kind in Australia.

I also predict that the Carbon tax will not come into operation. it MIGHT pass parliament although I am far from convinced but this government wil fall before it comes into operation.

I predict 2 years of sluggish grown in australia although only in the non-mining sectors but NOT recession.

I predict the USA wil fail to fully recover for up to 10 years as their debt ensures a real recovery is impossible until it is tackled. a possible double-dip recession but only light.

I predict a split in the EU with several countries being ditched eg portugal spain greece and ireland.

I predict tony abbott will be PM for at least 4 years possibly more and that Turnball wil end up being treasurer as he is the obvious choice if he can get his play-well-with-others hat on.

I predict the Crows will win the AFL premiership in about FIVE years.

all but the last one has good reasoning behind it.

Title: Re: Nostradamus Time - Predictions Anyone?
Post by Equitist on Jun 24^th, 2011 at 12:41pm

longweekend58 wrote on Jun 24^th, 2011 at 12:34pm:

Just saving Longy's bizarro predictions for posterity...

::)

Title: Re: Nostradamus Time - Predictions Anyone?
Post by perceptions_now on Jun 24^th, 2011 at 1:08pm

longweekend58 wrote on Jun 24^th, 2011 at 12:24pm:

perceptions_now wrote on Jun 23^rd, 2011 at 8:54pm:

longweekend58 wrote on Jun 23^rd, 2011 at 8:17pm:

perceptions_now wrote on Jun 23^rd, 2011 at 7:44pm:

longweekend58 wrote on Jun 23^rd, 2011 at 7:04pm:

stryder wrote on Jun 23^rd, 2011 at 5:19pm:

Hey Perceptions, have you got anymore pessimistic predictions that I can be amused about ????

So many words, just to say, your not willing to put your cohunes on the line?

And, the reason you are reluctant is, your likely to be proven wrong!

I predict, that this prediction of yours will prove to be wrong!

Title: Re: Nostradamus Time - Predictions Anyone?
Post by perceptions_now on Jun 24^th, 2011 at 1:14pm

longweekend58 wrote on Jun 24^th, 2011 at 12:34pm:

My prediction is that within 3 years there wil be no labor government of any kind in Australia.

I also predict that the Carbon tax will not come into operation. it MIGHT pass parliament although I am far from convinced but this government wil fall before it comes into operation.

I predict 2 years of sluggish grown in australia although only in the non-mining sectors but NOT recession.

I predict the USA wil fail to fully recover for up to 10 years as their debt ensures a real recovery is impossible until it is tackled. a possible double-dip recession but only light.

I predict a split in the EU with several countries being ditched eg portugal spain greece and ireland.

I predict tony abbott will be PM for at least 4 years possibly more and that Turnball wil end up being treasurer as he is the obvious choice if he can get his play-well-with-others hat on.

I predict the Crows will win the AFL premiership in about FIVE years.

all but the last one has good reasoning behind it.

Well, would you look at that, it seems my prediction came true?

perceptions_now wrote on Jun 24^th, 2011 at 1:08pm:

longweekend58 wrote on Jun 24^th, 2011 at 12:24pm:

I predict, that this prediction of yours will prove to be wrong!

However, as usual, NO reasoning has been provided!

Title: Re: Nostradamus Time - Predictions Anyone?
Post by pansi1951 on Jun 24^th, 2011 at 1:38pm

bogarde73 wrote on Jun 23^rd, 2011 at 2:55pm:

I almost agree with bogarde on political issues 1 and 2.

I'm not convinced that the US will become a client state of China. I believe that the US may go to war with China. The reason for this is the debt they can't pay back, and they are setting up bases in strategic areas. I see WA as being the new Pearl Harbour.

I predict that stryder 110011 will still be an idiot in 5 years time.

Reason: Lack of sensible debate.

I predict that our mining boom will bust within the next 5 years due to China not being as strong as we first thought.

We will see a global depression within the next 5 years.
Reason: All of the factors that perceptions_now has been raising....population, peak oil, ageing baby boomers etc.

Australia will follow in Ireland's footsteps and have a housing crash. Young people will be unemployed and in debt, they will venture overseas in search of work, as the Irish are doing now.

Long Weekend sees house prices crash, signs into OZ politics with different name to save face.

I predict that Liberals will win the next election, and that they won't fair any better than the Gillard Labor government of today. We will have one term governments for 20 years. We will see an increase in new parties and independents.

Reason: People expect the government to look after them.

Power struggle between China and US too continue even though both economy's will be stuffed.

No peace in Middle East.

War's in all regions to increase.

Australians move to Asia in record numbers seeking to cash in on the growing economies in the region.

Australian infrastructure still rubbish.

AFL and NRL players to continue acting like utter knobs.

Australian nationalism to die down, on the back of the realisation our country is small and insignificant.

Water training voted one of the worst ideas in the history of philanthropy.

Title: Re: Nostradamus Time - Predictions Anyone?
Post by longweekend58 on Jun 24^th, 2011 at 4:20pm

perceptions_now wrote on Jun 24^th, 2011 at 1:14pm:

longweekend58 wrote on Jun 24^th, 2011 at 12:34pm:

Well, would you look at that, it seems my prediction came true?

perceptions_now wrote on Jun 24^th, 2011 at 1:08pm:

longweekend58 wrote on Jun 24^th, 2011 at 12:24pm:

I predict, that this prediction of yours will prove to be wrong!

However, as usual, NO reasoning has been provided!

why should i give you reasons? I didnt last time and yet I was right whears you have blustered on and on and on ad nauseum for years and stil got pretty much everything wrong.

Title: Re: Nostradamus Time - Predictions Anyone?
Post by longweekend58 on Jun 24^th, 2011 at 4:22pm

Ex Dame Pansi wrote on Jun 24^th, 2011 at 1:38pm:

bogarde73 wrote on Jun 23^rd, 2011 at 2:55pm:

dream on, pansi-the-renter. your predictions of a house crash have been mocked for 5 years now. I see no reason not to continue to do so.

Title: Re: Nostradamus Time - Predictions Anyone?
Post by perceptions_now on Jun 24^th, 2011 at 7:17pm

longweekend58 wrote on Jun 24^th, 2011 at 4:20pm:

perceptions_now wrote on Jun 24^th, 2011 at 1:14pm:

longweekend58 wrote on Jun 24^th, 2011 at 12:34pm:

My prediction is that within 3 years there wil be no labor government of any kind in Australia.

I also predict that the Carbon tax will not come into operation. it MIGHT pass parliament although I am far from convinced but this government wil fall before it comes into operation.

I predict 2 years of sluggish grown in australia although only in the non-mining sectors but NOT recession.

I predict the USA wil fail to fully recover for up to 10 years as their debt ensures a real recovery is impossible until it is tackled. a possible double-dip recession but only light.

I predict a split in the EU with several countries being ditched eg portugal spain greece and ireland.

I predict tony abbott will be PM for at least 4 years possibly more and that Turnball wil end up being treasurer as he is the obvious choice if he can get his play-well-with-others hat on.

I predict the Crows will win the AFL premiership in about FIVE years.

all but the last one has good reasoning behind it.

Well, would you look at that, it seems my prediction came true?

perceptions_now wrote on Jun 24^th, 2011 at 1:08pm:

longweekend58 wrote on Jun 24^th, 2011 at 12:24pm:

I predict, that this prediction of yours will prove to be wrong!

However, as usual, NO reasoning has been provided!

why should i give you reasons? I didnt last time and yet I was right whears you have blustered on and on and on ad nauseum for years and stil got pretty much everything wrong.

As I said before, even a stopped clock can show the right time twice each day, but there isn't any forethought involved.

If reasons are given, to back up predictions, then if the prediction becomes fact, it is clearer that it was no simple accident, like the clock!

Btw, it seems we may agree, at least partially, on at least one prediction -

perceptions_now wrote on Jun 24^th, 2011 at 12:10am:

However, to add to my predictions -
Political Predictions
3) The Libs complete a clean sweep
I suspect that we are now in transition from being completely Labor, in all states & Federally, to being all Liberal, for reasons similar to my Queensland prediction.
However, the Publics hope that the Liberals will be able to wave a magic wand and turn around the slowing Australian Economy, will not prove to be realistic, nor will it become reality.
In fact, the Economic situation in OZ will deteriorate, as the Liberals follow their past, which will now worsen the situation, as AUS-terity will actually exacerbate an already worsening OZ Economy!

Title: Re: Nostradamus Time - Predictions Anyone?
Post by pansi1951 on Jun 25^th, 2011 at 6:54am

<<dream on, pansi-the-renter. your predictions of a house crash have been mocked for 5 years now. I see no reason not to continue to do so.>>
........................................................................................

This could be where you have been misleading yourself all along.

prediction: the act of predicting (as by reasoning about the future)

dream: A series of images, ideas, emotions, and sensations occurring involuntarily in the mind during certain stages of sleep.
2. A daydream; a reverie.
3. A state of abstraction; a trance.
4. A wild fancy or hope.
5. A condition or achievement that is longed for; an aspiration: a dream of owning their own business.
6. One that is exceptionally gratifying, excellent, or beautiful:

Title: Re: Nostradamus Time - Predictions Anyone?
Post by stryder110011 on Jun 25^th, 2011 at 10:47am

Quote:

Nostradamus Time - Predictions Anyone?

by Perceptions now

China will continue to rise as global economic power to dwarf the US economy in the 4-10 years its predicted to be, it will lead to some strategic confrontations in the pacific, especially in relation to Tawain, but given the vast debt of america which will restrain its economy and the amount of money available to spend to maintain and operate its military will roll back its policy on defending tawain.

Title: Re: Nostradamus Time - Predictions Anyone?
Post by perceptions_now on Jun 25^th, 2011 at 10:48am

Tony Abbott promises return to regular tax cuts and keep carbon price improvements

TONY Abbott will promise a return to regular tax cuts under a Coalition government today in a concerted pitch for working families and small business.

Mr Abbott will say Coalition tax cuts would “recognise the cost of living pressures that are hitting families and small business hard”.

“ Our tax cuts will be designed to restore people’s hope; to reward harder work with higher pay; and to foster opportunity without the need for a jobs-destroying carbon tax,” Mr Abbott will say.

“The Coalition will fund these tax cuts through prudent economies in government spending and through policy-driven improvements in the productivity of our economy.”

Link -
http://www.heraldsun.com.au/business/business-smarts/tony-abbott-promises-a-return-to-regular-tax-cuts/story-fn7j1dox-1226081646901
===============================
Political Predictions
4) Taxes will & must, go up, not down!
Reasons -
Just as limitless exponential growth is impossible, according to the laws of nature, so to is it impossible for governments to constantly take away from Revenue and add to expenditure, without increasing the size of Debt, which inevitably leads to a collapse of the Economic system!

Any cursory look at the US, UK, Japan & Europe, will confirm the above.

Given the future Demands on the system, from Baby Boomer Pensions & Health Costs alone, without going into the many other upcoming factors, will ensure that higher taxes (accross) the board will be required, not lower taxes.

Therefore, any Politician who talks about regular tax cuts, should not be believed!

Title: Re: Nostradamus Time - Predictions Anyone?
Post by longweekend58 on Jun 25^th, 2011 at 12:21pm

Ex Dame Pansi wrote on Jun 25^th, 2011 at 6:54am:

it remains true however that you have predicted 75% crahs in house prices for some 5 yeras now during which time they have instead RISEN 50%.

that should make a rational person feel pretty stupid. so why dont you feel stupid?

Title: Re: Nostradamus Time - Predictions Anyone?
Post by perceptions_now on Jun 26^th, 2011 at 5:30pm

New Financial Year Forecasts
June 24th 2011

Please predict where we’ll be in exactly one year

Craig James, Chief Economist, CommSec
Where will interest rates be? 5.25% … maybe 5.50%
Where will the ASX 200 be? 5,125 points
The price of gold? $1,300 USD
The price of oil? US$110
House prices (nationally, across the board)? Flat

Shane Oliver, Chief Economist, AMP
Where will interest rates be? 5.25%
Where will the ASX 200 be? 5,500 points
The price of gold? US$1,650
The price of oil? US$105
House prices (nationally, across the board)? Down 5%

Warren Hogan, Chief Economist, ANZ
Where will interest rates be? 5.50%
Where will the ASX 200 be? 5,000 points
The price of gold? US$1,550
The price of oil? US$120
House prices (nationally, across the board)? Up 5%

Buffett, Chairman, Barefoot Investor
Where will interest rates be? 5.00%
Where will the ASX 200 be? 4,317 points
The price of gold? US$2,875
The price of oil? US$65
House prices (nationally, across the board)? Down 15%

This time of the year is full of finance people making predictions about the next financial year, so I’ve gathered together the best economists in the land.

Tread Your Own Path!

Link -
http://www.barefootinvestor.com/new-financial-year-forecast/
===================================

Taking a lead from this article, but going over a slightly longer period to 31/12/2012, my predictions are -
perceptions_now
Where will interest rates be? 4.25 - 4.50%
Where will the ASX 200 be? 3,600 points
The price of gold? US$1,950
The price of oil? US$70
House prices (nationally, across the board)? Down 10.0%

Additional projections -
Where will the DOW be? 9,500 points
Where US$ Index be? 0.69
What will be the AUD/US$ exchange rate? $1.11

My Reasoning is following the existing trends, which suggest a Global contraction is underway, following tightness from the Baby Boomer Bust & the effects of Peak Energy, which will likely lead to some sovereign defaults and an increasing pressure on the USA.

Title: Re: Nostradamus Time - Predictions Anyone?
Post by pansi1951 on Jun 26^th, 2011 at 5:51pm

Where will interest rates be? 4.75%
Where will the ASX 200 be? 4,000 points
The price of gold? US$ 1800 oz
The price of oil? US$ 80
House prices (nationally, across the board)? Down 15%

Title: Re: Nostradamus Time - Predictions Anyone?
Post by perceptions_now on Jun 27^th, 2011 at 4:27pm

longweekend58 wrote on Jun 24^th, 2011 at 12:24pm:

perceptions_now wrote on Jun 23^rd, 2011 at 8:54pm:

longweekend58 wrote on Jun 23^rd, 2011 at 8:17pm:

perceptions_now wrote on Jun 23^rd, 2011 at 7:44pm:

longweekend58 wrote on Jun 23^rd, 2011 at 7:04pm:

stryder wrote on Jun 23^rd, 2011 at 5:19pm:

Hey Perceptions, have you got anymore pessimistic predictions that I can be amused about ????

So many words, just to say, your not willing to put your cohunes on the line?

And, the reason you are reluctant is, your likely to be proven wrong!

It seems there are a few others are also having thoughts that there are problems on the way!

CNN Poll: Obama approval rating drops as fears of depression rise

(CNN) – President Barack Obama's overall approval rating has dropped below 50 percent as a growing number of Americans worry that the U.S. is likely to slip into another Great Depression within the next 12 months, according to a new national poll.

Read the full results (pdf).

7. As you may know, the U.S. went through a depression in the 1930s in which roughly one out of four workers were unemployed, banks failed across the country, and millions of ordinary Americans were temporarily homeless or unable to feed their families. Do you think it is very likely, somewhat likely, not very likely, or not likely at all that another depression like that will occur in the U.S. within the next 12 months?

June 3-7, 2011
Very likely 19%
Somewhat likely 29%
Not very likely 32%
Not likely at all 19%
No opinion 1%

Forty-eight percent say that another Great Depression is likely to occur in the next year - the highest that figure has ever reached. The survey also indicates that just under half live in a household where someone has lost a job or are worried that unemployment may hit them in the near future. The poll was conducted starting Friday, when the Labor Department reported that the nation's jobless rate edged up to 9.1 percent.

"The poll reminded respondents that during the Depression in the 1930s, roughly one in four workers were unemployed, banks failed, and millions of Americans were homeless or unable to feed their families," says Holland. "And even with that reminder, nearly half said that another depression was likely in the next 12 months. That's not just economic pessimism - that's economic fatalism."

According to the survey, more than eight in ten Americans say that the economy is in poor shape, a number that has stubbornly remained at that level since March.

Link -
http://politicalticker.blogs.cnn.com/2011/06/08/cnn-poll-obama-approval-rating-drops-as-fears-of-depression-rise/
====================================
The USA is ground zero, everything radiates out from there!

If you want to see the Global future, look no further than the US trends!

Title: Re: Nostradamus Time - Predictions Anyone?
Post by perceptions_now on Aug 3^rd, 2011 at 1:48pm

Market Erases 2011 Gains on Recession Concern

Stocks tumbled as the Standard & Poor’s 500 Index had its biggest one-day loss in a year and erased its 2011 gain, while Treasury yields fell to the lowest levels since November, after an unexpected drop in consumer spending added to concern the economy will slide into a recession.

The S&P 500 fell 2.6 percent to 1,254.05 at 4 p.m. in New York, dropping for a seventh straight day in its longest slump since 2008.

Recession Odds
The odds of another U.S. downturn are rising amid cutbacks in spending by consumers and the government, according to five of the nine members of the panel that dates recessions. Harvard University economics professor Martin Feldstein, one of the members of committee at the National Bureau of Economic Research, said he sees a 50 percent chance that the U.S. will relapse into another recession.

“Nothing has given us much growth,” Feldstein said today in a Bloomberg Television interview on “Surveillance Midday” with Tom Keene.

The Dow sank 265.87 points, or 2.2 percent, to 11,866.62 for its biggest loss since June 1. The S&P 500 closed at its lowest level since Dec. 20, while the Dow ended the day at its weakest since March 18.

Fitch Ratings said the U.S. remains under a review as the nation’s debt burden increases at a pace that isn’t consistent with an AAA sovereign credit rating. The U.S. needs to confront “tough” choices on tax and spending against a weak economic backdrop if the budget deficit and government debt is to be cut to safer levels over the medium term, Fitch said.

‘Ugly Contest’
“In this U.S.-versus-Europe ugly contest, it’s hard to decide where to start from,” analysts at BNP Paribas wrote in a research note. “The economic slowdown is blatantly obvious in the large drop in U.S. manufacturing. And the issue of a U.S. downgrade remains open. Things are looking less comfy in Europe too, with Italy spreads again under severe pressure.”

Link -
http://www.bloomberg.com/news/2011-08-02/stocks-retreat-on-signs-economies-are-slowing-swiss-franc-reaches-record.html
=============================================
Obama's Next Step On Debt: Tax Rich To Pay Fair Share

http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=hAIjoaDVbDY&feature=player_embedded
=============================================

So, the DOW went down 266% -
http://au.finance.yahoo.com/echarts?s=^DJI#symbol=^dji;range=1d;compare=;indicator=volume;charttype=area;crosshair=on;ohlcvalues=0;logscale=off;source=;
And, the All Ords is currently down over 90 points -
http://au.finance.yahoo.com/q?s=^AORD

Obama is talking about raising taxes on Business & high income earners and that is likely to be fought every inch of the way.

Does anyone see where this is all heading?

Let me give you some indications, from a Share market view -
OZ All Ords - 1985-2011
http://au.finance.yahoo.com/echarts?s=^AORD#symbol=^aord;range=my;compare=;indicator=volume;charttype=area;crosshair=on;ohlcvalues=0;logscale=off;source=;

US DOW 1928-2011
http://au.finance.yahoo.com/echarts?s=^DJI#symbol=^dji;range=my;compare=;indicator=volume;charttype=area;crosshair=on;ohlcvalues=0;logscale=off;source=;

In the shortish term, between now & the end of 2012, the US DOW may well hit 7,600 and the OZ All Ords heading towards 3,000.

In the somewhat longer term, the DOW & the All Ords are likely to revisit the levels where the current bubble started in 1995, with the US DOW retracing to around 4,000 and the OZ All Ords going back to around 2,000?

And there, endth my Nostradamus predictions, for now!

Title: Re: Nostradamus Time - Predictions Anyone?
Post by WESLEY.PIPES on Aug 3^rd, 2011 at 1:55pm

I predict that the brisbane broncos will win the 2011 nrl premiership.

Title: Re: Nostradamus Time - Predictions Anyone?
Post by boogieman on Aug 3^rd, 2011 at 5:00pm

perceptions_now wrote on Jun 23^rd, 2011 at 1:34pm:

longweekend58 wrote on Jun 23^rd, 2011 at 12:39pm:

perceptions_now wrote on Jun 22^nd, 2011 at 10:40pm:

longweekend58 wrote on Jun 22^nd, 2011 at 6:01pm:

Why? because my predictions were right and yours were wrong? surely that makes YOU the idiot.

Because your position has no reasoning, besides I'm right & your wrong???

It's nowhere!

You want predictions for all of those areas and countries? In one post? How amusing of you. It's not possible to encapsulate the future of all these in a short post on here.

The only certainty is that all the politicians will continue lying and covering it uo as best they can.

Why don't tyou asl something that needs several books to answer as this question does already!

Any foold who tries to answer that question in one post is just that, a fool.

Wesley is way wrong by the way. Carlton will win the NRL flag and the Roosters will win the AFL one.

Perhaps you don't understand. The future is unknown and any correct prediction is simply a coincidence. I knew Rudd would win in 2007 and bet on him every week for 18 months. Tidy little return. But that was based on Howard having exceed his power and longevity, not a true prediction.

Title: Re: Nostradamus Time - Predictions Anyone?
Post by perceptions_now on Aug 3^rd, 2011 at 8:29pm

boogieman wrote on Aug 3^rd, 2011 at 5:00pm:

perceptions_now wrote on Jun 23^rd, 2011 at 1:34pm:

longweekend58 wrote on Jun 23^rd, 2011 at 12:39pm:

perceptions_now wrote on Jun 22^nd, 2011 at 10:40pm:

longweekend58 wrote on Jun 22^nd, 2011 at 6:01pm:

Why? because my predictions were right and yours were wrong? surely that makes YOU the idiot.

Because your position has no reasoning, besides I'm right & your wrong???

It's nowhere!

Actually I gave a fair size hint at what is likely in post -
http://www.ozpolitic.com/forum/YaBB.pl?num=1308800045/42#42

What we have now is largely a giant bubble and like most bubbles, it will/has burst and then retrace to its origins!

But, I do agree with you, about that habit of Politicians!

Title: Re: Nostradamus Time - Predictions Anyone?
Post by pansi1951 on Aug 4^th, 2011 at 6:55am

longweekend58 wrote on Jun 23^rd, 2011 at 7:04pm:

stryder wrote on Jun 23^rd, 2011 at 5:19pm:

Hey Perceptions, have you got anymore pessimistic predictions that I can be amused about ????

Oh what a difference six weeks makes.

Title: Re: Nostradamus Time - Predictions Anyone?
Post by perceptions_now on Aug 20^th, 2011 at 8:13pm

perceptions_now wrote on Jun 26^th, 2011 at 5:30pm:

So, how good are those highly paid Economists looking in their predictions, at this early stage?

Comparison Point 20/08/2011
Interest Rates - The RBA is now Under Pressure to Lower interest rates
ASX 200 - 4,102
The price of gold? - $1,852.20
The price of oil? - $82.26
OZ House Prices -
Established house prices Jun Qtr 10 to Jun Qtr 11
Weighted average of eight capital cities -1.9
http://www.abs.gov.au/ausstats/abs@.nsf/mf/6416.0
DOW - 10,818

Btw, I did go further after the above post and suggest that 3,000 may be the short term mark for the ASX200 by the end of 2012 and 2,000 in the slightly longer term.

I also suggested that 7,500 may be the DOW target for the end of 2012 and I think about 3,000 in the slightly longer term.

Title: Re: Nostradamus Time - Predictions Anyone?
Post by Andrei.Hicks on Aug 20^th, 2011 at 8:14pm

Newsflash -

Share markets go down as well as up.....

Title: Re: Nostradamus Time - Predictions Anyone?
Post by perceptions_now on Aug 20^th, 2011 at 8:18pm

Andrei.Hicks wrote on Aug 20^th, 2011 at 8:14pm:

Newsflash -

Share markets go down as well as up.....

NOT a news flash, I KNOW, share markets go both ways!

That said, we are now in a LONG TERM, GLOBAL, DOWNWARD TREND!

And, within that downward trend, there will be ups & downs.

Title: Re: Nostradamus Time - Predictions Anyone?
Post by perceptions_now on Aug 21^st, 2011 at 9:43pm

perceptions_now wrote on Aug 20^th, 2011 at 8:13pm:

perceptions_now wrote on Jun 26^th, 2011 at 5:30pm:

For context, the relative positions, when this article appeared, were -

Original Comparison Point 24/06/2011
Interest Rates - 4.75%
ASX 200 - 4,508
The price of gold? - $1,502.30
The price of oil? - $90.83
OZ House Prices -
Established house prices Jun Qtr 10 to Jun Qtr 11
Weighted average of eight capital cities -1.9
http://www.abs.gov.au/ausstats/abs@.nsf/mf/6416.0
DOW - 11,934 (the DOW also rose to 12,719 on July 7th)

Btw, I did go further after the above post and suggest that 3,000 may be the short term mark for the ASX200 by the end of 2012 and 2,000 in the slightly longer term.

Title: Re: Nostradamus Time - Predictions Anyone?
Post by perceptions_now on Sep 5^th, 2011 at 12:41pm

Non-Farm Payrolls Below 2001 Level

The current number of non-farm payrolls is below those of 1999-2001. The population has grown from about 280 million in 1999 to approximately 312 million today. So, adjusted for population growth, employment is in much worse condition than the above graph indicates.

The above graph shows that employment levels (as measured by non-farm payrolls) have fallen back to early 1987 levels.

The other factoid taken from the above graph is that population normalized employment has reached the low point of a recession that started at the turn of the century. There was a failed attempt at a recovery 2003-07. Then the recession resumed.

The title of this article could well have been "Non-farm Payrolls at Levels not Seen since Early 1987."

What this graph is specifying in hard data is an employment depression.

While the U.S. stock market can be supported in this massive depression by global earnings, if global economic activity slows down where will support for current earnings come from? And more earnings growth?

Europe is definitely slowing under the austerity demands stemming from the sovereign debt crisis. Asia is slowing under the attempts of central banks to stem inflation.

Where is the growth going to come from?

Link -
http://seekingalpha.com/article/291481-non-farm-payrolls-below-2001-level?source=email_macro_view
=========================================
A few observations -
1) As shown in the first chart, IF US Employment had continued its long term trend, then Non-Farm Payroll numbers would now be around 150 Million.
Instead, those Employment figure is around 131 Million, some 19 Million under where it would have been, IF it had stayed on trend.

2) As shown in chart 2, the Employment numbers to the Total Population ratio clearly Peaked around 2001 and that ratio is now clearly on a downward trend, having already declined from around 47% to about 42%.

3) There are two separate & competing Demographic issues involved in these US figures and they should also be expected in Global trends.
a) First, with total Population levels still continuing to rise, in the US at around 1% PA, this means that at a 60 participation rate that an additional 150,000 jobs NEED to be added to the US Employment figures each month, just to tread water, just to be standing still. Anything less and the US Economy is in Decline. This is shown in chart 1.
b) On the other hand, as from January 1st 2011, some 80 Million Americans started the "official" transition of US Boomers into retirement.
This means that based on the same 60% participation rate that some 220,000 Boomers are now DUE to retire (on average) each month, for the next 18 years.
In fact, the decline in the Employment to total Population ratio started around 2001 and that ratio will continue to decline, for the next 20 years, following the Demographic trends of the Boomer generation.

So, by current population increases, some 150,000 new jobs would normally be expected each month.
However, because of much higher retirement levels, due to the Boomers, there is possibly another 220,000 jobs being vacated each month by Boomers.

In an Economy functioning at capacity, this could see another 150,000 new jobs each month, to keep up with Population increases and another 220,000 jobs to fill each month, to keep up with Boomer retirements.
That's some 370,000 jobs each month, to keep the Economy rolling, unless productivity can magically increase?

In short, available worker numbers would normally have been stretched to the limit, with the Unemployment ratio sinking to very low levels.

That scenario has actually happened in some countries, such as Australia, where the Unemployment rate fell below 5%. However, that ratio is now likely to start to increase, following the Global Economic downturn!

Whilst Australia was relatively well placed in Debt levels, the US and much of Europe were not and as both areas started their Economic downturn in the early part of this new century, they are both now approaching catastrophic tipping points, which I envisage will become apparent to almost all, by the end of 2012!

To exacerbate matters, Global Energy Supplies are now Peaking, with Oil being the intial problem NOW, but all other Fossil Fuels are due to follow within the next 20-40 years and finally, with issues relating to Climate change, it means that another Population explosion to assist Global Economics is not possible this time, as there will be insufficient Food, Water & Energy for another Baby Boom!

So, good luck, watch the Debt and watch the world change!

Title: Re: Nostradamus Time - Predictions Anyone?
Post by buzzanddidj on Sep 5^th, 2011 at 12:52pm

Here's MY "two cents worth"

OFF-SHORE processing of refugees is now "Dead in the water"

Any attempts re-introduce Nauro or New Guinea into the picture, will meet the SAME fate as Malaysia - from ANOTHER High Court challenge

The legal precedent has been SET

Title: Re: Nostradamus Time - Predictions Anyone?
Post by pansi1951 on Sep 5^th, 2011 at 4:48pm

I predict interest rates will stay on hold and offshore processing is history and there will be huge union protests against the abolition of penalty rates.

Title: Re: Nostradamus Time - Predictions Anyone?
Post by cods on Sep 5^th, 2011 at 6:01pm

Ex Dame Pansi wrote on Sep 5^th, 2011 at 4:48pm:

I predict interest rates will stay on hold and offshore processing is history and there will be huge union protests against the abolition of penalty rates.

well pansi I believe the RBA has already said no rate increases this year... things are wobbly out there you know.. I believe nothing is what it seems....or we are lead to believe!! take that which ever way.

I predict gillard gone by Xmas..she needs a miracle and I think they have used them all up.

I predict we will not process on shore.. as we would have open borders and I doubt anyone really wants that.

I predict Thomo will have his day in court..

Title: Re: Nostradamus Time - Predictions Anyone?
Post by perceptions_now on Sep 5^th, 2011 at 7:44pm

As a follow on from previous posts, let me say -
1) Labor are likely to lose in all upcoming State & Federal elections, thus giving the Liberals a clean sweep of Australian electorates!
2) The Liberals will then implement standard Liberal policies, including wide ranging AUS-terity programs, which will be absolutely the wrong thing, at absolutely the wrong time and it will absolutely make the OZ Economy slide even further South, than an inept Labor, already has in the last 4 years!

Title: Re: Nostradamus Time - Predictions Anyone?
Post by cods on Sep 5^th, 2011 at 8:15pm

just checking to see if my predictions have come to pass yet??? ;)

Title: Re: Nostradamus Time - Predictions Anyone?
Post by perceptions_now on Sep 10^th, 2011 at 11:20am

Margin Call

http://www.margincallmovie.com/

Hmmm, Yes, could be prophetic in timing?

Btw, seems like a good cast!

Title: Re: Nostradamus Time - Predictions Anyone?
Post by perceptions_now on Sep 10^th, 2011 at 8:15pm

Welsh experts urge Osborne to prepare Plan B as global economy weakens

WELSH economists have called on Chancellor George Osborne to consider a “Plan B” as he insisted he would stick to his controversial austerity measures.

After meeting with IMF head Christine Lagarde yesterday, Mr Osborne said the coalition’s deficit reduction plans were flexible enough to deal with the deteriorating economic situation.

It followed a week of gloomy economic statistics, including falling house prices and figures showing more than a quarter of shops are lying empty in some parts of Wales.

Ms Lagarde said the UK’s stance remained “appropriate”, but she delivered a stark warning that policymakers needed to be ready to change course if conditions worsened further.

She said the risks from stagnating growth were growing, and had to be weighed against risks of sovereign debt.

“We can see the rest of the world economy slowing down, every day there is news that German growth is down, US growth is down, which is going to make it even more difficult to meet growth targets.

“We can do only a bit about inflation until oil prices come down or we invent ways of using oil better and the price comes down, we’re in a real bind.

“The best we can do is be reasonable about our demands so we can create as many jobs as possible in the difficult environment.”

The “risk of recession” currently outweighed the “risk of inflation”, she said.

“Christine Lagarde of the IMF has stated that the private sector is not filling the gap in our economy, as the Tories have always assumed, and she has also emphasised that the risk levels are rising.

Link -
http://www.walesonline.co.uk/news/wales-news/2011/09/10/welsh-experts-urge-osborne-to-prepare-plan-b-as-global-economy-weakens-91466-29395476/
==============================================
Let me make a bold prediction?

Well, it's hardly bold and more of a stand out certainly, AUS-terity will not the fix current Economic problems!

In fact, it will make the situation worse!

Title: Re: Nostradamus Time - Predictions Anyone?
Post by pansi1951 on Sep 11^th, 2011 at 7:41am

It seems that both AUSTERITY and QUANTITATIVE EASING will not fix the current economic problems of the western world, so what will?

I really don't think that there is a fix. The growth fairy grew into a growth giant and will have to die and be laid to rest forever more.

It's almost like it was meant to be, that peak oil, retiring baby boomers, climate change, world food shortage, greed and a multitude of other factors have all come together at one point in time to give us a huge wake-up call.

It might be as simple as going back to nature and self-sufficiency for us, which is probably not that simple for the generations that have had it all.

Title: Re: Nostradamus Time - Predictions Anyone?
Post by nairbe on Sep 11^th, 2011 at 11:54am

Dsmithy70 wrote on Jun 23^rd, 2011 at 2:49pm:

Doesn't it all end on the 21/12/2012?

Yes Smithy, Yes it does. So i am starting a cult where you all send me your money and i will build a spacecraft for us all to fly to the new world where my presence will bring peace and happiness as i live with how many virgins is it again? sounds terrible, disregard previous comment and just send your money.

Predictions.

Abbott wins 2013 election and leads the most insipid two term government since Frazer with economy going no where because he won't back down.

European Union will survive the current crisis but will be forever weakened and never have the influence it once had.

The middle east will continue to rip itself apart and never find peace fighting over its wealth and religion.

China and India will continue to grow economically and develop their social equality. China will remain socialist.

USA will wilt economically and politically.

Australia under the leadership of the next labor government after Abbott has made his mess will embrace the asian economic model and continue to do ok as a developing multicultural nation.

How would i know this, hell read a bit and then think, it's all old news and keeps happening in cycles small and big. We are really a very stupid species.

Title: Re: Nostradamus Time - Predictions Anyone?
Post by perceptions_now on Sep 11^th, 2011 at 9:16pm

nairbe wrote on Sep 11^th, 2011 at 11:54am:

Dsmithy70 wrote on Jun 23^rd, 2011 at 2:49pm:

Doesn't it all end on the 21/12/2012?

Yes Smithy, Yes it does. So i am starting a cult where you all send me your money and i will build a spacecraft for us all to fly to the new world where my presence will bring peace and happiness as i live with how many virgins is it again? sounds terrible, disregard previous comment and just send your money.
My friend, if we must do all of that, surely we can find some people that are happy NOT to be virgins, so we can all enjoy a little good sex, from time to time?
That's not too much to ask, is it?

Predictions.

Abbott wins 2013 election and leads the most insipid two term government since Frazer with economy going no where because he won't back down.

I agree that the Liberals will win the next election, but I don't know it will wait for 2013.Whilst I wouldn't compare Abbott & Fraser, the Liberals certainly won't go 2 terms of government & they won't fix the Economy, they will make it worse!

European Union will survive the current crisis but will be forever weakened and never have the influence it once had.

The EU may survive, but more importantly the European & Global Economy will be a disaster for decades!

The middle east will continue to rip itself apart and never find peace fighting over its wealth and religion.

I see the US coming in "to save the peace", in both Iran & Saudi Arabia!

China and India will continue to grow economically and develop their social equality. China will remain socialist.

Sorry, I don't think so! China, India & most of the developing world, will very soon cease developing, following a dramatic collapse in world financial markets!

USA will wilt economically and politically.

The US is likely to subject to a massive financial shock, shortly. However, they are still the worlds pre-emminent military power.

Australia under the leadership of the next labor government after Abbott has made his mess will embrace the asian economic model and continue to do ok as a developing multicultural nation.

Multicultural maybe, but OZ will also struggle for quite some time, as will Asia, the US & Europe!

How would i know this, hell read a bit and then think, it's all old news and keeps happening in cycles small and big. We are really a very stupid species.
I agree "we" really are a stupid species, but some individuals take that to extremes (no reference to you). I also agree that many things go in cycles (small &/or big), but there are also ocassions where issues arise that are once in history and we are now looking at several of those issues now!

Title: Re: Nostradamus Time - Predictions Anyone?
Post by perceptions_now on Sep 14^th, 2011 at 11:26pm

U.S. Stock Futures Rise on China Speculation

U.S. stock futures rose, indicating the Standard & Poor’s 500 Index will gain for a third day, on speculation China may support indebted European countries.

China is willing to buy the bonds of nations hit by the debt crisis, Caijing reported on its website today, citing Zhang Xiaoqiang, a vice chairman of the National Development and Reform Commission.

“This is fast becoming a crisis of confidence and only credible actions, and not just words, from leaders that markets can believe in will help soothe it,” said Manish Singh, head of investment at Crossbridge Capital, which oversees more than $2 billion in London.

Premier Wen Jiabao said earlier that developed nations shouldn’t rely on China to bail out the world economy. China can best contribute to the global economic recovery by ensuring steady growth at home, Wen said, calling on the European Union and U.S. to allow more Chinese investment in return.

http://www.bloomberg.com/news/2011-09-14/u-s-stock-futures-drop-as-china-signals-reluctance-on-bailouts.html
=====================================
Moody's Downgrades SocGen, Credit Agricole, Reviews BNP

-- Moody's downgrades Societe Generale's long-term credit ratings to Aa3 from Aa2

-- Moody's downgrades Credit Agricole's rating to Aa2 from Aa1

-- Moody's highlights challenges with BNP short-term funding needs in keeping rating under review

-- Rating agency factors in a potential haircut of 60% on Greek sovereign debt

Moody's Investors Service Wednesday downgraded the long-term debt ratings of Societe Generale SA (GLE.FR) and Credit Agricole SA (ACA.FR) and kept BNP Paribas SA (BNP.FR) under review for a possible downgrade, highlighting a tumultuous period for the French banks that have seen their shares hammered amid fears about their exposure to Greece and weaker euro zone countries.

Moody's downgraded Societe Generale's long-term credit ratings to Aa3 from Aa2 and lowered Credit Agricole's rating to Aa2 from Aa1. It kept BNP Paribas's rating at Aa2.

French financial institutions overall have the highest exposure to Greece--via debt and private loans--rendering them a virtual proxy for fears about whether euro-zone leaders can avoid a destabilizing Greek default that could threaten other weak countries in the region.

Shares in Societe Generale have been particularly hard hit, falling nearly 50% since Aug. 1. BNP Paribas' shares have shed 38% and Credit Agricole's shares have fallen 37% over the same period.

Along with the concerns about Greece, Societe Generale and BNP Paribas also have been hit by the pullback by U.S. money market funds in lending to European banks and French banks in particular, though the banks say they have managed to secure alternative sources of dollars.

http://online.wsj.com/article/BT-CO-20110914-704434.html
=============================================
The world is full of fact & fiction, the problem is in deciphering the difference between the two & in understanding what is reality!

ie - Beware the promise of Greeks bearing gifts, of Chinese giving money away to countries that are bankrupt and of making false assumptions.

Title: Re: Nostradamus Time - Predictions Anyone?
Post by Grey on Sep 15^th, 2011 at 1:02am

Prediction: Gillards government will start to poll better starting in one week and will continue to rise prompting a leadership change in the Liberal party, this time next year. There will then be hard fight leading up to the next election which Labor will win by a three seat majority.

Title: Re: Nostradamus Time - Predictions Anyone?
Post by perceptions_now on Sep 21^st, 2011 at 11:01pm

Nervous Breakdown? 21 Signs That Something Big Is About To Happen In The Financial World

My summary of article -
1. Astounding number of put contracts for S&P500 in October
2. Investors pulling money out of stocks faster than after Lehman bankruptcy.
3. Siemens moving 500B euros from French banks to ECB
4. Italy downgraded on Monday from A+ to A.
5. ECB buying Italian and Spanish debt to prop up the market.
6. Major central banks to make unlimited funds available for Q4 borrowing
7. Top Italian bank down over half this year and the 2nd largest is down 44%.
8. 82% of Germans think the government is doing a bad job.
9. Greece in full blown economic collapse
10. Greek finances continue to deteriorate despite austerity programs.
11. Greek interest rates on one year bond at 129%.
12. Greek government has only enough cash to operate for one month.
13. Italy now has a debt to GDP ratio of about 120% and their economy is far, far larger than the economy of Greece.
14. 2 year Portuguese bonds go from 4% to 17% in last year.
15. China has stopped swaps and forwards trading with several European banks.
16. Central banks in Europe going for gold.
17. IMF head says world is in a dangerous new phase.
18. Russia has dumped 95% of its US treasuries and Israel has dumped 46%.
19. Fed expected to buy more bonds (Operation Twist).
20. Obama tax plan incentivizes dumping of stocks before 2012.
21. Merrill Lynch estimates 80% chance of double dip recession.

Link -
http://theeconomiccollapseblog.com/archives/nervous-breakdown-21-signs-that-something-big-is-about-to-happen-in-the-financial-world
===========================================
The name of the site where the article appears is "The Economic Collapse", so it would seem likely they are pre-disposed to the conclusion of this article.

That said, most of the 21 "signs" would seem to be accurate AND I would agree that all indications suggest that it is likely that very torrid times are ahead!

Title: Re: Nostradamus Time - Predictions Anyone?
Post by cods on Sep 22^nd, 2011 at 8:44am

Greek govt about to bring in MORE AUSTERITY.. grim news...

Title: Re: Nostradamus Time - Predictions Anyone?
Post by perceptions_now on Nov 25^th, 2011 at 2:05pm

1) What do you think the reaction would be, IF I PREDICTED, that equity markets will FLATILNE (NO GROWTH), FOR THE NEXT 6 YEARS?

2) What do you think the reaction would be, IF I PREDICTED, that those same equity markets, would decline by 50%, off their current rate?

3) What do you think the reaction would be, IF I PREDICTED, that NIETHER LABOR, NOR LIBERAL, HAS ANY IDEA WHAT IS HAPPENING OR WHY, NOR DO THEY HAVE ANY IDEA ABOUT THE CORRECT ACTIONS TO TAKE?

Title: Re: Nostradamus Time - Predictions Anyone?
Post by dsmithy70 on Nov 25^th, 2011 at 2:13pm

perceptions_now wrote on Nov 25^th, 2011 at 2:05pm:

1) What do you think the reaction would be, IF I PREDICTED, that equity markets will FLATILNE (NO GROWTH), FOR THE NEXT 6 YEARS?

Reaction from who???
Personally I don't think that's too far off the mark.
Nothing done in either Europe or the US has addressed the root cause of the problems, deck chairs and icebergs come to mind.

2) What do you think the reaction would be, IF I PREDICTED, that those same equity markets, would decline by 50%, off their current rate?

A decline of at least 30%is inevitable so 50 is not totally unreasonable

3) What do you think the reaction would be, IF I PREDICTED, that NIETHER LABOR, NOR LIBERAL, HAS ANY IDEA WHAT IS HAPPENING OR WHY, NOR DO THEY HAVE ANY IDEA ABOUT THE CORRECT ACTIONS TO TAKE?

Anyone who thinks they have a clue please PM me as I have some bargain basement Sydney real estate to offload

Title: Re: Nostradamus Time - Predictions Anyone?
Post by pansi1951 on Nov 25^th, 2011 at 2:58pm

Will someone please bailout Portugal.......any takers?.....Germany?

Fitch cuts Portugal rating on high debts, worse outlook

LISBON — Fitch downgraded Portugal's credit rating to junk status on Thursday, citing large fiscal imbalances, high debts and the risks to its EU-mandated austerity program from a worsening economic outlook.

The ratings agency cut Portugal to BB+ from BBB-, which is still one notch higher than Moody's rating of Ba2. S&P still rates Portugal investment grade.

Fitch said a deepening recession makes it "much more challenging" for the government to cut the budget deficit but it still expects fiscal goals to be met both this year and next.

"However, the risk of slippage - either from worse macroeconomic outturns or insufficient expenditure controls - is large," Fitch said.

The challenging economic environment was clear in a Reuters poll on Thursday, where economists forecast Portugal's economy will contract by 2.9 percent next year, the deepest recession since the 1970s, and 1.6 percent this year, in line with the government's estimates.

http://www.msnbc.msn.com/id/45427292/ns/business-stocks_and_economy/t/fitch-cuts-portugal-rating-junk-status/

Title: Re: Nostradamus Time - Predictions Anyone?
Post by pansi1951 on Nov 25^th, 2011 at 3:01pm

<<Anyone who thinks they have a clue please PM me as I have some bargain basement Sydney real estate to offload>>
.............................................................

Let me know if you haven't offloaded in three years time smithy. I might be interested.

Title: Re: Nostradamus Time - Predictions Anyone?
Post by qikvtec on Nov 25^th, 2011 at 3:41pm

Fact 1: The average cost of a comfortable lifestyle in retirement in Australia is ~$58,000/year and rising.
Fact 2: The aged pension falls woefully short ~ 1/2 that for a couple
Fact 3: The pension will never get any better than a subsistence living; like it or not.
Fact 4: In order to fund a comfortable lifestyle in retirement without drawing on capital at a 6% return a capital balance of ~$970,000 is required.
Fact 5: The average retirement savings of the average Australian is a mere fraction of that amount.
Fact 6: The longer you have to retirement the more you will need; due inflation.
Fact 7: If you start work at 18, work until you are 65 and are paid fortnightly you have 1222 pay cheques to save +/- $2m which equates to about $1600/fn
Fact 8: Most people don't start significant savings until their mid 50's
Fact 9: They will never fund a comfortable retirement and will freeze to death on a diet of home brand cat food
Fact 10: Listening to the rantings of PN and his ilk and avoiding any assets with potential growth will result in Fact 9.

I predict ~90% of the population will retire on a miserable income, not because anything PN mentions will occur, simply because zero planning go into retirement funding.

If you retire with the average super balance try not to live very long.

Title: Re: Nostradamus Time - Predictions Anyone?
Post by qikvtec on Nov 25^th, 2011 at 3:44pm

perceptions_now wrote on Nov 25^th, 2011 at 2:05pm:

1. I hope you're right.
2. You're dreaming
3. everything is right up until what; beyond that is to be expected.

Title: Re: Nostradamus Time - Predictions Anyone?
Post by Grey on Nov 25^th, 2011 at 4:06pm

Dsmithy70 wrote on Nov 25^th, 2011 at 2:13pm:

perceptions_now wrote on Nov 25^th, 2011 at 2:05pm:

That's word for word what I was going to say :-)

Incidentally did you all catch Ticky Fullerton's love in with Grant Williams earlier this week? I find Lateline Business a lot more interesting than Lateline these days and I wonder how much that cluey women is being paid :-)

http://www.abc.net.au/lateline/business/items/201111/s3374648.htm

Title: Re: Nostradamus Time - Predictions Anyone?
Post by perceptions_now on Nov 25^th, 2011 at 6:20pm

perceptions_now wrote on Nov 25^th, 2011 at 2:05pm:

Ok, the Truth is, both 1 & 2, are already history, they have already happened and 3 is an absolute certainty!
http://www.google.com/finance?q=INDEXASX:XAO

1) If you look back on the above interactive All Ords chart, you will find todays finish on the All Ords, is much the same finish, as May 2005.
We have basically flatlined, for over 6 years!

2) Similarly, we Peaked at 6760 in October 2007, then plumetted to a low of 3111, in March 2009.
We lost over 50% of the share price.

3) And, I'm going on record now, for a future prediction, that we are again headed for similar events, over the next 5-10 years, because the Politicians (on both sides), here & abroad, have NO IDEA WHAT IS HAPPENING OR WHY, NOR DO THEY HAVE ANY IDEA ABOUT THE CORRECT ACTIONS TO TAKE & perhaps more to the point, they have no interest in looking beyond the ends of their noses, because they do not have OUR LONG TERM INTERESTS AT HEART!

Title: Re: Nostradamus Time - Predictions Anyone?
Post by froggie on Nov 25^th, 2011 at 6:34pm

I predict that I am about to Log Out.

:D

Title: Re: Nostradamus Time - Predictions Anyone?
Post by qikvtec on Nov 25^th, 2011 at 6:36pm

perceptions_now wrote on Nov 25^th, 2011 at 6:20pm:

perceptions_now wrote on Nov 25^th, 2011 at 2:05pm:

Only if you sold them. The price declined 50%, but has since recovered and fallen and recovered and fallen, as it will do in-perpetuity.

Title: Re: Nostradamus Time - Predictions Anyone?
Post by perceptions_now on Nov 25^th, 2011 at 8:48pm

qikvtec wrote on Nov 25^th, 2011 at 6:36pm:

perceptions_now wrote on Nov 25^th, 2011 at 6:20pm:

perceptions_now wrote on Nov 25^th, 2011 at 2:05pm:

Only if you sold them. The price declined 50%, but has since recovered and fallen and recovered and fallen, as it will do in-perpetuity.

You are correct, in the respect that change is constant!

However, the fact is that in modern Economics, it had become an accepted norm that, whilst share prices would rise & fall, the basic trend would inevitably be upward over time, just like the money supply & Debt levels and for that reason, investors should "stay invested in the market".

That has now changed, as most the Macro factors that influence share prices are heading south and that trend line is likely to remain in place, for a very long time!

Btw, I don't think that simply saying, "only if you sold them", would carry that much weight. Certainly those millions in OZ & Billions around the world, relying on their share prices going up, to fund their retirement, should not rely on that!

And, if I were them and I am, I would also not rely on escalating real estate prices, either!

Off topic, sort of? Who would make the correct guess here?
Let's assume that we have 2 pension age retirees in Western Australia, one doesn't have assets that generate much income & is entitled to an Aged Pension, the other has too much assets, which generate too much income and is therefore, not entitled to an Aged Pension.

Both are entitled to a WA Seniors Card and with that gets a 50% discount off their Drivers License renewal.

Only one is entitled to a Commonwealth Seniors Health Care Card and therefore a further 50% discount discount off thier drivers License renewal, thus getting it free.

Which one do you think gets the Commonwealth Seniors Health Care Card and extra discount -
1) The person who gets the Aged Pension, because their income is low?
2) The person who doesn't get the Aged Pension, because their income is too high?

Title: Re: Nostradamus Time - Predictions Anyone?
Post by qikvtec on Nov 25^th, 2011 at 10:24pm

perceptions_now wrote on Nov 25^th, 2011 at 8:48pm:

qikvtec wrote on Nov 25^th, 2011 at 6:36pm:

perceptions_now wrote on Nov 25^th, 2011 at 6:20pm:

perceptions_now wrote on Nov 25^th, 2011 at 2:05pm:

Only if you sold them. The price declined 50%, but has since recovered and fallen and recovered and fallen, as it will do in-perpetuity.

You assume that I would advocate realising the investment to fund your retirement which is patently ridiculous; live off the income and the franking credits.

I agree on real estate prices not ever increasing, there are some serious headwinds to the Australian market which has so far, except isolated areas of unemployment, resisted too much price decline, that said some areas have experienced as much as 30% drops in price.

Refresh my memory, which is the pension card that you become eligible for once in receipt of just one dollar of pension income?

Title: Re: Nostradamus Time - Predictions Anyone?
Post by perceptions_now on Nov 26^th, 2011 at 9:45am

perceptions_now wrote on Nov 25^th, 2011 at 8:48pm:

qikvtec wrote on Nov 25^th, 2011 at 6:36pm:

perceptions_now wrote on Nov 25^th, 2011 at 6:20pm:

perceptions_now wrote on Nov 25^th, 2011 at 2:05pm:

Only if you sold them. The price declined 50%, but has since recovered and fallen and recovered and fallen, as it will do in-perpetuity.

You are correct, in the respect that change is constant!

However, the fact is that in modern Economics, it had become an accepted norm that, whilst share prices would rise & fall, the basic trend would inevitably be upward over time, just like the money supply & Debt levels and for that reason, investors should "stay invested in the market".

That has now changed, as most the Macro factors that influence share prices are heading south and that trend line is likely to remain in place, for a very long time!

Btw, I don't think that simply saying, "only if you sold them", would carry that much weight. Certainly those millions in OZ & Billions around the world, relying on their share prices going up, to fund their retirement, should not rely on that!

And, if I were them and I am, I would also not rely on escalating real estate prices, either!

Off topic, sort of? Who would make the correct guess here?
Let's assume that we have 2 pension age retirees in Western Australia, one doesn't have assets that generate much income & is entitled to an Aged Pension, the other has too much assets, which generate too much income and is therefore, not entitled to an Aged Pension.

Both are entitled to a WA Seniors Card and with that gets a 50% discount off their Drivers License renewal.

Only one is entitled to a Commonwealth Seniors Health Care Card and therefore a further 50% discount discount off thier drivers License renewal, thus getting it free.

Which one do you think gets the Commonwealth Seniors Health Care Card and extra discount -
1) The person who gets the Aged Pension, because their income is low?
2) The person who doesn't get the Aged Pension, because their income is too high?

Yes, you guessed correctly, the all too obvious answer is -
2) The person who doesn't get the Aged Pension, because their income is too high?

So, the WA government is wasting more taxpayer $'s, on people who don't need it.

Now, can anyone tell me, why that makes sense?

Title: Re: Nostradamus Time - Predictions Anyone?
Post by perceptions_now on Aug 6^th, 2012 at 2:10pm

perceptions_now wrote on Aug 6^th, 2012 at 1:53pm:

The following article is quite long, so I have just taken some appropriate excerpts.
================================
Harry Dent's Formula For Surviving The Great Bust Ahead

The Gold Report: Your considerable research over many years indicates that the size and age of its citizens drive a country's economic growth or decline.

Harry Dent: We've identified a peak spending wave indicator that correlates strongly with the stock market and the economy.

In developed countries, though-countries with higher-tech infrastructures and a solid middle class-this spending wave indicator peaks at around age 46. People slow in spending way ahead of retirement, from 46 on. That is basically when the average person's kids are leaving the nest. In fact, the greatest slowing comes from age 50 on.

TGR: Is the pattern the same across the globe, or do slowdown years differ from country to country?

HD: There's some degree of variation, but the post-World War II baby boom pretty much happened around the world. Birth rates in most developed countries peaked in the late 1950s to early 1960s, so the whole developed world is pretty much synched on this baby boom, all peaking together. Japan is the one exception, where births peaked twice, once in 1942 and again in 1949.

TGR: Let's talk a bit about the debt issue.

HD: In the U.S., most people focus on government debt. Under George Bush, the national debt grew from $5 trillion to $10T in 2000-2008. At the same time, the banking system, financial systems and shadow banking-in the private sector-created $22T in debt. That was the greatest debt bubble in history, and it occurred in developed countries all around the world. So we have this global debt crisis and this debt has to deleverage. Everybody is in too much debt-financial institutions, consumers, businesses and governments, with central banks propping them up and bailing them out.
Obviously, this can't go on forever.

If the demographics weren't working against the Fed and the other central banks, it might be different. But they're fighting a battle they can't win because the baby boomers are working against them.

That's the problem. The money the Fed creates gooses up the markets, but doesn't do much for the economy, and banks aren't lending. It's crystal clear in history. Every time you see a big debt bubble in a fall boom-as in the 1860s and 1870s-a depression follows.

We saw this from 1873-1877 and into the early 1880s. We saw the next big bubble into the roaring 1920s, followed by the Great Depression and debt deleveraging after that. In short, debt bubbles ultimately burst and then deleverage. Deleveraging debt destroys money, so there's less money in the system and it means deflation in prices.

Cash is king-cash and cash flow.

So people just have to get out of the way. Even with all the stimulus, the Fed has no way to restore normalcy with this debt level and this demographic downturn. We think stocks are next, so we expect another stock crash within the next few years. And the next crash will be worse than in 2008-2009 because the Fed has pumped everything up and stretched the system to the max.

The government is trying to skip winter. It keeps heating things up, pouring the money into the economy so the banks don't deleverage debt and the banking system doesn't collapse as it did in the 1930s. The truth is, it's only keeping us in high debt and maintaining a bubble that's not sustainable. Sooner or later, this stimulus will result in a crash that takes down the economy.

TGR: So we're basically just getting into this 2008-2023 winter depression. How deep will the trough go?

HD: A winter season lasts from 13 to 15 years or so. The worst collapses in stock prices and real estate hit when the banking system deleverages. In the 1930s, that happened early on. In this case, the government took a lesson from the 1930s and decided to keep pouring money into the banking system to prevent its meltdown. But it can't be done. There's a limit to how much you can stimulate. It's like a drug. It takes more and more of the drug and it has less and less effect until it has almost no effect, and then the drug itself kills you.

We're seeing that in Europe already. There's no bailing out Spain. It has one of the biggest real estate bubbles in the world and a rapidly aging population.

TGR: What do you see in terms of stocks?

HD: The worst is likely to hit in the next two years. It's a matter of when the stimulus stops working or when governments throw in the towel.

Japan has been through all of this before, but when it came into its crisis in the 1990s, it had budget and trade surpluses. The rest of the world was experiencing the greatest boom in history, which we'd predicted.

Japan is still carrying very high private debt, and its government debt has risen from 60% of gross domestic product (GDP) to 230% and still climbing.
But now Japan's debt is much larger than before the crisis and deleveraging still looms ahead. Japan has been a lost economy for 22 years now. Real estate is down 60% and stocks are still down nearly 80%, 22 years later.

TGR: So Japan's QE has raised government debt to more than 200% of GDP but only managed to postpone a depression?

HD: Yes, it kicked the can a couple of decades down the road.

TGR: Your earlier mention of losing control brings to mind the people of Greece out in the streets rioting because demands for further sacrifices and more fiscal austerity have become unbearable.

HD: It is true. One of our financial advisers who was there recently reported every third store is closed or boarded up. Greece is in a depression and Spain's headed there.

China also is vulnerable. Exports, which drive most of its economy, are declining rapidly while government spending on vacant buildings and empty cities has created a real estate bubble. If that bubble begins to seriously break down, Chinese consumers with disposable income, the top 10% of the population, own the real estate that will lose its value.

TGR: What's the best investing advice you ever received, Harry?

HD: I learned early on to think contrary to the crowd, something like Joseph Kennedy. Right now, most investors think these markets can't go down because the Fed won't allow them to. They call it "the Bernanke Put." Well, if everybody's thinking that, I don't think that.

TGR: Other than going to cash, what else should people be doing to prepare for the depression/deflationary period ahead?

HD: Cut expenses and high-interest debt.

Link -
http://seekingalpha.com/article/780031-harry-dent-s-formula-for-surviving-the-great-bust-ahead?source=email_macro_view&ifp=0
================================

Harry Dent does have a reasonable handle on many of the issues that are affecting the Global Economy, particularly in respect to the Demographic & Debt issues and he did predict the Baby Boomer BOOM, prior to predicting the Baby Boomer Bust and his thoughts are well worth a read.
http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Harry_Dent

That said, he is not infallible and some of his predictions have been inaccurate, such as suggesting DOW 40,000.

In addition, Dent does not appear to take Peak Energy into his calculations.

In my opinion, the fall out from the issues related to Peak Energy & Climate change, will also have some profound influences on the Global Economy.

I therefore recommend that all of the following be factored in to everyone's thoughts, as we take on the next few decades -
1) Demographics
2) Debt
3) Peak Energy
4) Climate Change

Good luck & watch the Debt!

The above 4 points are my major influences on Local & Global events over the next few decades!

What are yours?

Title: Re: Nostradamus Time - Predictions Anyone?
Post by pansi1951 on Aug 6^th, 2012 at 4:23pm

I'm seeing a change in the status of world powers, the east rising up ie China and India and the west taking a secondary position? I think there will be more major players that will replace the USA as the one single ruler.

War? I think there is a good possibility of a major war developing sometime this decade. When the USA strike Iran, I think it will develop into WWIII, unless of course someone uses their nuclear missiles, then, well then, I hate to think.

I don't think this next war will kick start the economy in the west like WWII. War is an expensive game these days.

The people as usual will be the losers, whilst the fat pollies attend meetings at luxury resorts.

At the moment there seems to be so much hatred of politicians, worldwide, that in 50 years time we won't have pollies like we do today. Don't ask me what will replace them, but political systems do change when people get overly sick of them.