gizmo_2655 wrote on Aug 31st, 2010 at 7:46am:
perceptions_now wrote on Aug 30th, 2010 at 10:30pm:
gizmo_2655 wrote on Aug 30th, 2010 at 10:19pm:
perceptions_now wrote on Aug 30th, 2010 at 10:11pm:
gizmo_2655 wrote on Aug 30th, 2010 at 9:54pm:
Equitist wrote on Aug 30th, 2010 at 9:43pm:
gizmo_2655 wrote on Aug 30th, 2010 at 9:30pm:| Perceptions....the 'massive rise' in the price of oil is due to GREED, not a decline in supply..... |
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If anything, the price of oil has probably been too low - given that it is a finite resource...
If humanity survives another 200 years, I expect that our descendants will marvel over the arrogant and reckless stupidity of the consumerist humans who lived 'in the moment' in the century between about 1930 and 2030... |
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No, it's not due to 'limited' amounts...
For example, in 1980 Saudia Arabia's estimated reserves of oil was 168 billion barrels.....in 2008 Saudi Arabia's reserve was 264 billion barrels....
If we reached 'peak production' in 1990, why have the reserves gone UP???? |
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Because all of the OPEC nations had a fuss in the mid 80's about Production and who would produce how much.
There's no 2nd guess required here, I'm sure there are many who will guess the outcome.
Virtually overnight almost all the OPEC nations massively raised their reserves, without any basis and they have never been lowered since, despite the huge levels of Production in between then & now! |
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And doesn't that tell you that the OPEC countries are NOT running out of oil??
And since the OPEC countries have REDUCED their production many times since the 80's instead of increasing it.....That means that the OPEC countries, at least, haven't hit 'Peak Production' levels yet.... |
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You are kidding, aren't you, Gizmo??? |
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No, I am quite serious...
Peak Oil means, basically that the oil producers (whether companies or countries) are producing as much oil as they possible can..Right?
But the OPEC countries are NOT...they have reduced their 'barrels per day' production at least 5 times in the last decade....which means, IF they wanted to they could increase far more oil, on a daily basis, than they are currently doing.
So OPEC is NOT at 'Peak' production levels.... |
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But, you were also serious about the Saudi Reserves, until told that the Saudi's & other OPEC members had arbitrarily increased their reserves in the mid 80's.
By way of further information on OPEC reserves -
The ME OPEC Reserves AnomaliesBased on published data, the ME OPEC countries contain more than 50% of the World's remaining producible oil reserves. Understanding the reliability of these reserves estimates is therefore vital to the future of the oil driven growth in the World Economy.
The anomalous nature of ME OPEC reserves, illustrated below for Kuwait (Figure 2), can be summarised as follows:
1. Reserves were uplifted by 38% in 1984. This does not relate to any verifiable new field discoveries. If Kuwait was the only country to have done this it might be excused as rectifying a past mistake. But in the period 1984 to 1987 all of the ME OPEC countries uplifted reserves by large amounts in this period (Figure 3). For example, the UAE increased their oil reserves by 295% in 1986. One view of these anomalous revisions is that they are related to OPEC quota negotiations and are not founded on geological or engineering data.
2. Following this arbitrary uplift, reserves have more or less remained unchanged. Most significantly, no deductions have been made for production for around 20 years.
http://europe.theoildrum.com/uploads/3246/Kuwait.png 
http://europe.theoildrum.com/uploads/3246/ME_OPEC.pngThe Big 5 ME OPEC producers all show a similar history to Kuwait, with large arbitrary uplift in reserves during the 1980s, followed by "flat line" reserves histories lacking evidence for depletion, though additions are evident in Iran and Iraq.
http://www.theoildrum.com/files/02_OPEC_SUPPLIES_MAY_2010.PNGSo much for Reserves, but suffice to say, the reserves quoted clearly are not there!
That said, you say that OPEC have reduced their 'barrels per day' production production a number of times over the last decade.
The reality is that there were two substantial Production declines, the first following the 9/11 attacks & the 2nd following the current GFC, both relate to declining Demand, due to the Economic slowdowns that followed both events.
However, whilst the period mid 2004 to mid 2008 was a relatively stable period, the Oil Price went thru the roof, but production remained stable.
It defies believe that whilst prices rise dramatically and Demand also rose during the 2004-2008 period (in line with Economic & Population Growth), that Oil Production (Supply) did not also rise in line with Growth during that period.
If both Demand & Price are rising, then Economics 101 would see Supply (Production) increase , to take advantage of that situation.
However, Supply (Production) did not rise in line with Growth during that period & it is still only just holding onto current Production.
Why, Because fields such as Ghawar (in Saudi Arabia) & Burgan (in Kuwait) are now in decline and that is why Production will not recover!
