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General Discussion >> Federal Politics >> Your Prediction http://www.ozpolitic.com/forum/YaBB.pl?num=1282139874 Message started by stryder110011 on Aug 18th, 2010 at 11:57pm |
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Title: Your Prediction Post by stryder110011 on Aug 18th, 2010 at 11:57pm
Yes Its time to be in NOSTRODAMUS mode.
Its time to know your prediction on who will win this saturday. I know that you people like me who believe the Coalition will be disappointed in when I say that my gut instincts and this sneaking feeling influenced a little by the polls and experience tell me LABOR will win this election, but will lose seats and have a reduced majority, even though this disunited and fractured Labor government doesnt deserve a second term at all. BELIEVE ME I WILL LOVE TO BE WRONG ON THIS ONE. But I believe they are enough people out there who are guilible enough to swallow Labors spin, lies and more spin for the second time. Quite frankly if Labor does return to power and when things get worse later, Those of you who returned it via the ballot box HAVE NO TO COMPLAIN, but to absorb further labor incompetencies like dogs, because they are labor voters. and they knew the first time. So who do you predict to win on saturday ?? Labor or liberal ?? |
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Title: Re: Your Prediction Post by stryder110011 on Aug 19th, 2010 at 12:01am
Correction = Those of you who returned it via the ballot box HAVE NO RIGHT TO COMPLAIN, but to absorb further labor incompetencies like dogs, because they are labor voters. and they knew the first time.
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Title: Re: Your Prediction Post by Cyberman on Aug 19th, 2010 at 12:03am
All I will say is that there seem to be a lot of gullible smacking morons around that manage to ignore all evidence around them
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Title: Re: Your Prediction Post by iamtheman012 on Aug 19th, 2010 at 12:11am
Given how thick Labor and Greens voters are with their lack of ability to think for themselves, i fear that the Liberals will go down by 2-5 seats.
:) |
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Title: Re: Your Prediction Post by mellie on Aug 19th, 2010 at 12:11am Cyberman wrote on Aug 19th, 2010 at 12:03am:
Australians think of Labor as the caring party, as do many younger people and our newly arrived...as it's drip-fed to them the second they arrive, at school and uni. Naturally, they aren't going to bite the hand that feeds them, as most think Labor are the 'nice' party who cares for the ordinary Australian. If they knew what we do, (eventually they will see )..at least we have a clue. They haven't met the real Gillard yet, but they will if she's elected. 8-)...as to who will win... It's so close, it's impossible to tell, because if someone from their own cabinet were to leak the bomb, they would more than likely leave it until the day before the election.....say either Thursday or Friday? Theres still hope. 8-) |
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Title: Re: Your Prediction Post by perceptions_now on Aug 19th, 2010 at 12:14am
I think a narrow Labor win, but it could just as easily go the other way.
It certainly seems to be closer than the Bookies odds would suggest? |
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Title: Re: Your Prediction Post by stryder110011 on Aug 19th, 2010 at 12:15am
I guess all of you have that sneaking feeling too.
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Title: Re: Your Prediction Post by mellie on Aug 19th, 2010 at 12:25am stryder wrote on Aug 19th, 2010 at 12:15am:
Yep...and I also think the polls aren't accurate. If there is to be one more final condemning leak, it will probably occur either tomorrow, (rather today) or Friday morning.... And as we saw last time, all it took was a little nudge, for the polls to shift in Abbotts favour. I think there are those who dislike her within her own party enough to try and stop her, and enough to drop something adverse right before the election. But, we will have to wait and see...because if they drop it too soon, then she'll have time to mop it up, launch a counter-attack... and if they drop it too late, then it wont capture enough public interest, attention. I'd drop it Friday morning, 24 hours is enough time to make a difference. If not, hold tight, because like someone else said, it's going to be squeaky tight. 8-) |
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Title: Re: Your Prediction Post by mellie on Aug 19th, 2010 at 12:28am
I think Liberal will scoot in , unexpectedly, ...but this could just be my wishful thinking, so...
8-) My bet is Liberal. 8-) |
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Title: Re: Your Prediction Post by stryder110011 on Aug 19th, 2010 at 12:39am
The only government to lose government in there first term was James Scullins, but he had the unfortunate timing of becoming PM in australia when the GREAT DEPRESSION hit australia hard in 1929, with the collapse in export markets for Australia's agricultural products which caused mass unemployment never seen at that scale. Scullin's government, guided by standard economic advice, was unable to cope, and the Labor Party was riddled with internal conflict over how to respond.
Thats not really the same case here in 2010. |
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Title: Re: Your Prediction Post by stryder110011 on Aug 19th, 2010 at 12:42am
Even though there are comparisons between the Great Depression of 1929 to the GFC of 2008, the GFC was less severe in downturn effects than the crisis of 1929.
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Title: Re: Your Prediction Post by stryder110011 on Aug 19th, 2010 at 12:55am
So who do you think will win the election this saturday, do you believe in the pundits and the polls which say that Gilliard will cross the line, or do you feel or have a feeling that Tony Abbott will cause an upset and win this election and create history by defeating Labor in its first term ???
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Title: Re: Your Prediction Post by mellie on Aug 19th, 2010 at 12:58am |
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Title: Re: Your Prediction Post by mellie on Aug 19th, 2010 at 1:02am Quote:
Jeeze, I don't think Skip would to be too happy about this. :o No wonder he's been quiet. 8-) |
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Title: Re: Your Prediction Post by Enforcer on Aug 19th, 2010 at 5:50am LABOR 80, LNP 66, IND 3, GREENS 1 Gillard has allways been pro Israel which is what ultimately led to the disbanding of the socialist forum as she was allways out of step with the Pro Palestinian members of the forum. She's been edging slowly right her whole career which is generally in line with most people as they get older I am told. I am nearly 50 and edging left rofl, I actually voted for Howard in the late 70's early 80's in Bennalong. |
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Title: Re: Your Prediction Post by Enforcer on Aug 19th, 2010 at 5:54am mellie wrote on Aug 19th, 2010 at 12:25am:
ROFL love this cloak and dagger stuff ... remember Phony has a lot of baggage and that the other side also has a bomb all primed and ready to roll if the smear starts. cheers |
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Title: Re: Your Prediction Post by Greens_Win2k10 on Aug 19th, 2010 at 6:18am
Labor 75 (and darn lucky voters are still conned by Julia)
Greens 2 (Melbourne & Denison) Independents 4 Liberal/National Coalition 69 (why, because they all suk) |
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Title: Re: Your Prediction Post by DARWIN on Aug 19th, 2010 at 7:28am
Labor 80, maybe a bit more. Greens unsuccessful in Melbourne, three, maybe four independents, Nats down a seat or two, Libs whatever is left.
Tone sealed his fate with a shouty, bristly, incompetent showing in Brisbane last night. |
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Title: Re: Your Prediction Post by philperth2010 on Aug 19th, 2010 at 7:38am Abbott is a risk....to volatile and to far to the right....Labor will win but only just.....the negative campaign by the Coalition will hurt Labor but will not save Abbott.....Australia deserves better than Tony Abbott and his right wing front bench!!! :) |
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Title: Re: Your Prediction Post by iamtheman012 on Aug 19th, 2010 at 7:38am Darwin wrote on Aug 19th, 2010 at 7:28am:
80? LOL, Christ you're a wanker Darwin. Please try and keep up child. ::) |
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Title: Re: Your Prediction Post by philperth2010 on Aug 19th, 2010 at 7:39am
C'mon man.....you know Abbott is a total wanker at the best of times....the bloke does not represent the majority of Australians....he is full of poo!!!
:) |
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Title: Re: Your Prediction Post by iamtheman012 on Aug 19th, 2010 at 7:41am philperth2010 wrote on Aug 19th, 2010 at 7:39am:
He may not be the best option Phil, but neither is Julia. My point is Darwin is just being a wanker as usual. ;) |
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Title: Re: Your Prediction Post by DARWIN on Aug 19th, 2010 at 8:18am
Again the name calling, yawn.
I made my prediction, will know by 10.00pm Saturday if I was right so no need for the name calling. If you look at the polls and how they are moving Labor’s way my prediction of 80 seats is very possible, then add in last night’s “town hall” meeting there is every reason to think the swing to Labor could accelerate. Julia addresses the NPC today, keeping that momentum in the final 2 days. No Brisbane seat will fall and the polls in FNQ seats miss out aboriginals in remote locations so less than the expected number of FNQ seats will fall. Bennelong will not fall either. Possum’s electoral simulation showed 77 seats to Labor as the most probable result—but that doesn’t take in the swing to Labor all this week. |
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Title: Re: Your Prediction Post by iamtheman012 on Aug 19th, 2010 at 8:22am Darwin wrote on Aug 19th, 2010 at 8:18am:
LOL whatever helps you sleep at night. I suppose YOU think Robertson won't fall either? Take you blinkers off sunshine, YOUR predictions are about as accurate as your NBN pricing claims. Oh and let's NOT forget this pearler from YOU: Quote:
LOL. :o |
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Title: Re: Your Prediction Post by sprintcyclist on Aug 19th, 2010 at 8:24am phil Quote:
anything of intelligence to add?? thought not hes a rhodes scholar, 2 degrees, ironman competitor. your description is erroneous |
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Title: Re: Your Prediction Post by DARWIN on Aug 19th, 2010 at 8:25am
Did I say anywhere that Labor wouldn’t lose some seats? My 80 seat prediction obviously means a net loss of three seats by Labor.
Labor will win on Saturday, 77-80 is the most likely result. |
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Title: Re: Your Prediction Post by iamtheman012 on Aug 19th, 2010 at 8:27am Darwin wrote on Aug 19th, 2010 at 8:25am:
Your previous claims DON'T instill a lot of confidence Darwin. ;) |
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Title: Re: Your Prediction Post by DARWIN on Aug 19th, 2010 at 8:37am
Saturday night will show who is right.
WA could give a surprise too. Labor to pick up a seat there. |
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Title: Re: Your Prediction Post by laborfornever on Aug 19th, 2010 at 8:56am
Liberals by 15 seats, This election should be an absolute landslide to the libs if you look purely at what labors track record has been in the last 3 years, the promises that they made last election that were dumped. You all know what they were.
Its a no brainer, but people are deciding the next three years on what they have been fed in the last 5 weeks, not the last 3 years. Unbelievable. However if labor get home you can be sure as you have eggs with bacon on a sunday morning labor will totaly bugger everything up again just as they did last term. They did not fulfill 1 policy in its entirety ontime or on budget they shelved many after spending millions, they promised heavan and earth but delivered hell. How can you back labor again on the track record????? If it was a horse race on past form labor would not get a bet laid. |
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Title: Re: Your Prediction Post by DARWIN on Aug 19th, 2010 at 9:02am
Labor’s track record: creating 500,000 jobs. Low debt. Making vital infrastructure investments including but not limited to the NBN. More doctors and nurses places at universities, teacher improvement courses, the national curriculum.
A great track record I would say. Maybe you think Howard/Costello did better? No spending on infrastructure apart from the Alice Springs to Darwin rail white elephant. Money taken out of health and education etc etc. disastrous privatisation of Telstra. Talked about a national curriculum but never delivered. |
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Title: Re: Your Prediction Post by skippy. on Aug 19th, 2010 at 9:05am Quote:
LOL the irony of that post sprinty. Labor 75 GREENS 2 Coalition 70 Independent 3 The Libs could always ask the GREENS to join the coalition, LOL LOL |
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Title: Re: Your Prediction Post by iamtheman012 on Aug 19th, 2010 at 9:07am Darwin wrote on Aug 19th, 2010 at 9:02am:
LOL, and WHERE are they Darwin? Sounds like something Anna Bligh would say. :o |
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Title: Re: Your Prediction Post by laborfornever on Aug 19th, 2010 at 9:08am
having a relative who is head cardiac nurse at a hospital on the gold coast, I can tell you first hand that no matter how many nursing jopbs they create, there is no jobs for them.
Why?? Well there are no empty beds in hospitals so you don't need these new nurses or doctors UNLESS they build more hospitals. Now have you heard of any new hospitals being announced?? NO so where will these doctors and nurses work given we have full beds in hospitals with full staff in those hospitals and no new hospitals??? |
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Title: Re: Your Prediction Post by sprintcyclist on Aug 19th, 2010 at 9:10am Labor 95 GREENS 0 Coalition 55 Independent 6 |
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Title: Re: Your Prediction Post by Greens_Win2k10 on Aug 19th, 2010 at 9:23am skippy. wrote on Aug 19th, 2010 at 9:05am:
I guess a carbon levy this term, and the introduction of Greens' universal dental scheme could achieve this. once again ... just a guess ! . |
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Title: Re: Your Prediction Post by aussiefree2ride on Aug 19th, 2010 at 9:29am
I think Judas and the ALP will get in, the Greens will be the spoilers, and Australia will be very badly damaged over the next term. Daffy Duck will at some time attempt to supplant Judas "for the good of the country", and the unions will squeeze the ALP for repayment for electing them.
Hope I`m wrong. |
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Title: Re: Your Prediction Post by DARWIN on Aug 19th, 2010 at 9:30am laborfornever wrote on Aug 19th, 2010 at 9:08am:
HAHAHAHAHAHAHA desperate or not? |
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Title: Re: Your Prediction Post by aussiefree2ride on Aug 19th, 2010 at 9:33am Darwin wrote on Aug 19th, 2010 at 9:30am:
Desperate for new hospitals, and maintainence of the existing ones, yes. The Labor State Governments have caused too much damage. |
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Title: Re: Your Prediction Post by longweekend58 on Aug 19th, 2010 at 9:47am aussiefree2ride wrote on Aug 19th, 2010 at 9:33am:
I wil go with Labor by 2-4 seats. But I keep hoping there will be a massive cabinet leak today or tomorrow which wil cost them a few more seats and therefore govt. |
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Title: Re: Your Prediction Post by DARWIN on Aug 19th, 2010 at 9:50am
Gee that sounds pathetic.
Labor deserve to win and will win well. Question of interest now: will the Libs dump tone? |
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Title: Re: Your Prediction Post by Equitist on Aug 19th, 2010 at 9:52am longweekend58 wrote on Aug 19th, 2010 at 9:47am:
Hoping you haven't forgotten our bet back on Yahoo, Bates... Remember: a public admission plus your crystal balls to one glass slipper!? I'll wager that glass slipper and public admission that it'll go to the Labs by 4-6 seats (or more)! Either way, it is apparently so close that we're both somewhat engaged in wishful thinking... ;) |
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Title: Re: Your Prediction Post by longweekend58 on Aug 19th, 2010 at 9:53am Darwin wrote on Aug 19th, 2010 at 9:50am:
Win or lose, Abbott is safe. he has taken libs from nowwhere to close to victory. That kind of perfromance wil ensure he remains leader. The same cannot be said of Gillard. If labor loses, here career- not just her job - is toast. |
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Title: Re: Your Prediction Post by longweekend58 on Aug 19th, 2010 at 9:55am Equitist wrote on Aug 19th, 2010 at 9:52am:
I have no idea what you are referring to. care to remind me? |
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Title: Re: Your Prediction Post by aussiefree2ride on Aug 19th, 2010 at 9:56am Darwin wrote on Aug 19th, 2010 at 9:50am:
If they lose the election, will they dump Abbott? Interestig question, who would succeed him? Joe Hockey? |
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Title: Re: Your Prediction Post by Greens_Win2k10 on Aug 19th, 2010 at 9:56am aussiefree2ride wrote on Aug 19th, 2010 at 9:29am:
Wong ... Senator Wong? Yeah, now all your previous posts make sense. |
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Title: Re: Your Prediction Post by Equitist on Aug 19th, 2010 at 9:58am longweekend58 wrote on Aug 19th, 2010 at 9:53am:
Abbott thinks he's safe but I'll wager that he will NOT be leader come the 2013 election - and I'd be surprised if he wasn't out sooner rather than later... Seriously, internal polling will be indicating already that he is regarded by the public as too erratic and extreme to be PM... |
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Title: Re: Your Prediction Post by DARWIN on Aug 19th, 2010 at 10:03am
I am quite happy if the Libs keep Tone. He rallied the base, as expected, but didn’t do much else. His failings are now very much part of the public record and I would imagine various parts of the base will drift away again to DLP, LoR and all those fringe groups.
So the Libs won’t be much of a problem for a term or two so Labor can concentrate on smashing the Green parasites. |
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Title: Re: Your Prediction Post by Equitist on Aug 19th, 2010 at 10:05am longweekend58 wrote on Aug 19th, 2010 at 9:55am:
Bollox, Bates! No doubt will some of the audience recall the wager - made on a Yahoo thread started by you in May entitled 'Crystal ball time...'... Is your memory refreshed yet!? |
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Title: Re: Your Prediction Post by longweekend58 on Aug 19th, 2010 at 10:06am
Maybe you two twits shoudl wait until after the election before deciding Abbott's 'fate' and how the public view him. If he wins then you look like idiots. if he loses by a narrow margin then you still look like idiots. The only way you could be right is if ABbott loses bya a large margin - whioch NO ONE is predicting - which stil amkes you idiots.
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Title: Re: Your Prediction Post by longweekend58 on Aug 19th, 2010 at 10:07am Equitist wrote on Aug 19th, 2010 at 10:05am:
nope. |
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Title: Re: Your Prediction Post by Verge on Aug 19th, 2010 at 10:09am Equitist wrote on Aug 19th, 2010 at 9:58am:
Latham said a month ago, and I actually think he was right, in that the Libs got their batting order upside down. He said the Libs should have put Abbott in at the start, he is a junk yard dog and could have made serious inroads in the ALP much sooner, and once he had them on the back foot (like he did do by the way), move to someone like Hockey who has much more appeal with the people. It was a fair call, he must have taken his meds that day. |
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Title: Re: Your Prediction Post by Equitist on Aug 19th, 2010 at 10:12am aussiefree2ride wrote on Aug 19th, 2010 at 9:56am:
On Bates' aforementioned 'Crystal Ball' thread, I predicted that Joe Jockstrap and Mal Talksbull had some sort of pact to jointly roll Abbott... That said, I have also been wondering...whether Big Mal has secret plans to use the Libs to get re-elected and then turn Independent - and/or perhaps team up with with Joe Jockstrap to engineer (or threaten) a factional split... Either way, Big Mal still has designs on being Australia's first President - a role to which I believe he is uniquely well-suited... |
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Title: Re: Your Prediction Post by DARWIN on Aug 19th, 2010 at 10:15am
I too think the Libs should have put Abbott in first. He could have booted out all the fossils like Ruddock, Tuckey and Bronny (“the future of the Libs” hahahah) and no hopers like Jensen, Slipper, Somlyay. and won back the base.
Turnbull should have been voted leader say back in March, to look good and not have time to show his numerous flaws as Leader. Bit of policy work wouldn’t have hurt either. |
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Title: Re: Your Prediction Post by Equitist on Aug 19th, 2010 at 10:16am longweekend58 wrote on Aug 19th, 2010 at 10:07am:
Are you sure that you don't wanna try to save face - before I post extracts from the actual thread (which, you will recall that I told you I was saving for posterity)... |
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Title: Re: Your Prediction Post by longweekend58 on Aug 19th, 2010 at 10:18am Equitist wrote on Aug 19th, 2010 at 10:16am:
Do your worst. It is sad that you save such stuff... but go for it. |
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Title: Re: Your Prediction Post by skippy. on Aug 19th, 2010 at 10:22am Quote:
SAD ,for you by the sounds of things,lol lol . |
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Title: Re: Your Prediction Post by Equitist on Aug 19th, 2010 at 10:32am longweekend58 wrote on Aug 19th, 2010 at 10:18am:
Guess what, Bates - we're in luck!? I had saved the link which helped me to find it in the Google cache: - http://webcache.googleusercontent.com/search?q=cache:Jo6fP5h3w-0J:au.messages.yahoo.com/news/politics/786025/+http://au.messages.yahoo.com/news/politics/786025&cd=1&hl=en&ct=clnk&gl=au&client=firefox-a Master_Bates_Crystal_Ball_thread_snapshot.JPG (125 KB | 38
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Title: Re: Your Prediction Post by Equitist on Aug 19th, 2010 at 10:56am Oh where oh where has our little Longy gone, oh where oh where can he be!? With his fleece so pale and his crystal balls cut off, oh where or where can he be!? Sorry, Bates - you know I luv to hate you - but you did walk into this! Peace!? ::) |
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Title: Re: Your Prediction Post by DARWIN on Aug 19th, 2010 at 11:30am
Peter van, the Liberal Party man:
Quote:
http://www.theaustralian.com.au/national-affairs/commentary/gillard-pulls-off-a-narrow-victory/story-e6frgd0x-1225907021554 80 seats may actually be pessimistic. |
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Title: Re: Your Prediction Post by mellie on Aug 19th, 2010 at 11:45am skippy. wrote on Aug 19th, 2010 at 10:22am:
Skippy, how do you feel about the Labor-Green coalition being funded by, as per your own definition...a terrorist state? :) Jews! |
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Title: Re: Your Prediction Post by longweekend58 on Aug 19th, 2010 at 11:51am Equitist wrote on Aug 19th, 2010 at 10:56am:
You are going to criticise my prediction 4 months ago? how about we wait until the election because casting aspertions on anyones prediction? |
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Title: Re: Your Prediction Post by mellie on Aug 19th, 2010 at 11:54am
Why does it say that longweekend was the last person to post on this thread, though the last post I can see on this thread is my own?
Glitch? ___________ It's ok, it appears to be there now. Cheers. :) |
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Title: Re: Your Prediction Post by aussiefree2ride on Aug 19th, 2010 at 2:11pm Equitist wrote on Aug 19th, 2010 at 10:12am:
Turbull was`t handling the leadership well at all, too compulsive for one thing, although I doubt that would stop him from having another tilt. If Hoe Jockey has leadership asperations (which appears to be the case), I think he needs quite a bit more grooming. |
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