Leading analysts cast doubt on poll figures


Three opinion polls this weekend paint a confused picture of the election outcome, with leading analysts casting doubt on the latest opinion poll that gives the Coalition the winning edge over Labor in the last week of the campaign.

The Galaxy poll of 4000 voters in 20 marginal seats puts coalition support at 51.4 per cent to Labor's 48.6 per cent on preferences.

But the Galaxy poll finding is not supported by two leading analysts.

ABC election analyst Antony Green says he comes up with a different result when entering the projected Galaxy swings into his election calculator.

"Someone has made an absolute howler in trying to turn polls in 20 marginal seats into a national figure," the ABC expert wrote on his blog, adding whoever calculated the vote committed two serious errors.

"First, the figures are for four electorates, not the states. Second, while the state samples are the same size, the state populations are not," he said.

Mr Green says his calculation from the Galaxy poll shows Labor at 51 per cent, not 48.6 per cent.

Andrew Catsaras, a strategic marketing consultant and polling analyst, told Network 10 he also had doubts about the poll's findings describing them as "a bit misleading".

"It would have been better to pick a marginal seat and poll that, then you would have got a better indication about what's going on (in Queensland)," he said.

A Newspoll of marginal seats, published this weekend in The Australian was far more instructive of what was happening in the electorate, Mr Catsaras said.

That poll showed Labor losing three or four seats in Queensland.

"That sounds more realistic than what's being reported this morning," Mr Catsaras said.

wrote on Aug 15^th, 2010 at 1:23pm:

Leading analysts cast doubt on poll figures Three opinion polls this weekend paint a confused picture of the election outcome, with leading analysts casting doubt on the latest opinion poll that gives the Coalition the winning edge over Labor in the last week of the campaign. The Galaxy poll of 4000 voters in 20 marginal seats puts coalition support at 51.4 per cent to Labor's 48.6 per cent on preferences. But the Galaxy poll finding is not supported by two leading analysts. ABC election analyst Antony Green says he comes up with a different result when entering the projected Galaxy swings into his election calculator. "Someone has made an absolute howler in trying to turn polls in 20 marginal seats into a national figure," the ABC expert wrote on his blog, adding whoever calculated the vote committed two serious errors. "First, the figures are for four electorates, not the states. Second, while the state samples are the same size, the state populations are not," he said. Mr Green says his calculation from the Galaxy poll shows Labor at 51 per cent, not 48.6 per cent. Andrew Catsaras, a strategic marketing consultant and polling analyst, told Network 10 he also had doubts about the poll's findings describing them as "a bit misleading". "It would have been better to pick a marginal seat and poll that, then you would have got a better indication about what's going on (in Queensland)," he said. A Newspoll of marginal seats, published this weekend in The Australian was far more instructive of what was happening in the electorate, Mr Catsaras said. That poll showed Labor losing three or four seats in Queensland. "That sounds more realistic than what's being reported this morning," Mr Catsaras said.

Of course they do, imcrook....depending on WHERE you poll determines the result you get....
And the major polling groups have preset agendas.....
The only poll that counts, will take place next Saturday....

The main thing wrong with the poll is the very small number of people polled, it works out to 200 a seat, a total joke of a poll.

skippy. wrote on Aug 15^th, 2010 at 1:33pm:

The main thing wrong with the poll is the very small number of people polled, it works out to 200 a seat, a total joke of a poll.

Yep, as Benjamin Disraeli is supposed to have said...."There are lies, damned lies, and statistics"...

I don't care what the polls show, I only care who wins, and I hope it isn't Abbott.

BAN POLLS
BAN Election campaigning before elections.

I would love to see an election without the above and how  different the candidates and parties would perform.