LABOR'S execution of Kevin Rudd appears to be paying dividends.
The government has hit the front at the start of a lightning election campaign that ends on August 21.

Julia Gillard is also scoring off Tony Abbott personally and repairing the government's weak spots on asylum-seekers and climate change.

The first Newspoll survey taken since the Prime Minister called the election on Saturday reveals Coalition support has dropped while Labor's primary vote has held steady at 42 per cent to the opposition's 38 per cent.

It's the first time Labor has been ahead on primary vote since April.

Based on preference flows at the last election, Labor has opened a 10-point lead of 55 to the Coalition's 45 per cent. Labor would be easily returned if that two-party-preferred result were repeated uniformly on August 21, and it would be a stronger result than the 2007 victory.

Woe, I hope this is right. Abbott scares the bee jesus out of moi.


[smiley=thumbup.gif]

the alps getting the sexist vote.


vegi - why does abbott scare you ?

Sprintcyclist wrote on Jul 19^th, 2010 at 10:40am:

the alps getting the sexist vote. vegi - why does abbott scare you ?

Abbott scares anyone with moderate views sprint, even lib voters, you are not doing yourself any favours by allowing the far right neo con extremists to run the Liberal party.
Maybe after the Libs are flogged at this election you will come to realise that the likes of Abbott are to far right wing for most people in this country.
When the Libs get a LIBERAL as leader, Labor can start to sh1t themselves, until then Labor will call the shots.

Alas! Politics is such a cynical business: I see that the Labs are preferring to quote the less definitive polls - perhaps because Newspoll and the Oz seem so keen to attribute 'underdog' status to their preferred PM, attack-dog Abbott...!?

far right - abbott ??
we live in different worlds skippy.

abbotts too far left for me by about 14 lightyears.

Quote:

Alas! Politics is such a cynical business: I see that the Labs are preferring to quote the less definitive polls

Really? please explain?

skippy. wrote on Jul 19^th, 2010 at 10:57am:

Quote: Alas! Politics is such a cynical business: I see that the Labs are preferring to quote the less definitive polls Really? please explain?

If an incumbent looks like a shoe-in, then electors are more likely to lodge some sort of protest vote (which renders the final outcome less certain) - hence, both majors prefer to claim 'underdog' status...

Just in....

The Greens have confirmed that they have struck a preferences deal with Labor, which will affect the Senate and some key House of Representatives seats in the upcoming federal election.

It is understood the deal involves more than 50 key Lower House seats.

The deal means Labor will direct its Senate preferences to the Greens, while the Greens will direct preferences to the ALP in the Lower House seats.

But it is not yet known which seats will be affected.

The deal is likely to help the Greens secure the balance of power in the Senate and may get Labor over the line in some key marginal seats.

More at ABC online

.

buzzanddidj wrote on Jul 19^th, 2010 at 10:13am:

LABOR'S execution of Kevin Rudd appears to be paying dividends. The government has hit the front at the start of a lightning election campaign that ends on August 21. Julia Gillard is also scoring off Tony Abbott personally and repairing the government's weak spots on asylum-seekers and climate change. The first Newspoll survey taken since the Prime Minister called the election on Saturday reveals Coalition support has dropped while Labor's primary vote has held steady at 42 per cent to the opposition's 38 per cent. It's the first time Labor has been ahead on primary vote since April. Based on preference flows at the last election, Labor has opened a 10-point lead of 55 to the Coalition's 45 per cent. Labor would be easily returned if that two-party-preferred result were repeated uniformly on August 21, and it would be a stronger result than the 2007 victory.

A poll on Saturday had it 50/50.

Do we have another rogue on our hands?

Sprintcyclist wrote on Jul 19^th, 2010 at 10:54am:

far right - abbott ?? we live in different worlds skippy. abbotts too far left for me by about 14 lightyears.

Please are you serious???
Can you point to any left leaning policies announced by Abbott.
Oh that's right they have not told us any except for increasing corporate tax to fund women's maturnity leave.
But that was a promise from opposition, I'm sure if government is obtained it will become too hard/expensive to go ahead.
Please don't take this as me supporting Labor, as far as I'm concerned they are just as bad, at time of writting I'm thinking Greens
1st pref Aus Dems(are they still around?)
2nd Mary jane party
3rd 4x4/fishing party
4th lib
5th lab

I even shake my head at myself reading that, being someone who is interested and actually enjoys politics.
Shows what a sh!thouse choice we have this time around.

vegi - why does abbott scare you ?
=================


Seriously,  I am not sure where to start. But to keep it simple. I don’t trust him. He has NOT been clear on any issue or policy. Plus I know I don’t like many policy ideas he 'lightly' thrown around.

I question how he made his admission to telling  lies an  ok - giving liars  permission !

I really don't know what his morals and values are- yet he has  put himself under the religious 'priest hood' umbrella in the past . I have to many unsettling unanswered questions about Abbott . More so than any other Liberal minister. Instinct.

wrote on Jul 19^th, 2010 at 11:52am:

vegi - why does abbott scare you ? ================= Seriously,  I am not sure where to start. But to keep it simple. I don’t trust him. He has NOT been clear on any issue or policy. Plus I know I don’t like many policy ideas he 'lightly' thrown around. I question how he made his admission to telling  lies an  ok - giving liars  permission ! I really don't know what his morals and values are- yet he has  put himself under the religious 'priest hood' umbrella in the past . I have to many unsettling unanswered questions about Abbott . More so than any other Liberal minister. Instinct.

What Abbott said was sometimes in the heat of battle you take things too far.

Much like Gillard claiming at the miners only paid 13% tax, based on a US uni students report, a report where the findings were canned because the sample size was too small, the same report that didnt include one Oz mining company.

Abbott was honest in his answer, and it is true, how many times have pollies in the heat of debate taken things too far, yet you have the hide to call Abbott a liar.

Try this one instead - "There is more chance of me playing full forward for the bulldogs than challanging for the Prime Minstership."

The latest opinion poll has Labor in trouble at the election, with the coalition getting an early swing.

A Galaxy poll conducted for the Nine Network in the 24 hours after Prime Minister Julia Gillard called the election showed Labor's primary vote had dropped to 38 per cent.

The coalition's vote was up to 44 per cent, putting both parties at 50 per cent, a 2.7 per cent swing to the coalition.

A Galaxy poll conducted for News Ltd newspapers ahead of the election call had Labor leading with 52 per cent to the coalition's 48 per cent on a two-party preferred basis, aided by preferences from the Greens.

Labor's primary vote had slipped since Ms Gillard became prime minister on June 24 in the News Ltd poll, with the decline put down to the government's handling of the asylum seeker policy.

But Ms Gillard maintained a strong lead as the more trusted leader, with 46 per cent of those surveyed in the Nine Network poll believing she was more trustworthy ahead of Mr Abbott on 35 per cent.

Ms Gillard was still streets ahead as the preferred prime minister for 44 per cent of those surveyed compared to Mr Abbott at 35 per cent.


Sydney Morning Herald
July 18, 2010

.

TONY Abbott has staked out his first campaign battleground, claiming $47 billion in spending cuts he is promising would lead to lower interest rates and help families with the cost of living.
But Julia Gillard immediately retorted that the Opposition Leader was mimicking John Howard's 2004 promise "Who do you trust to keep interest rates low?" which preceded six rate rises.

"Haven't we heard this from the Liberal Party before and does everyone remember what happened afterwards?" Ms Gillard said in Brisbane.

"Gee whiz, Tony Abbott must think everybody in Australia was born yesterday."

Mr Abbott visited the five-bedroom home of a friend of the new state Liberal MP for Penrith to open his campaign, claiming his government would introduce policies to enable the Reserve Bank to lower rates.

Mr Abbott offered no new policy on his first day on the trail, except to reaffirm a government under him would make swingeing cuts.


http://www.couriermail.com.au/news/national/prime-minister-julia-gillard-mocks-tony-abbott-on-interest-rates/story-fn5z3z83-1225893590437




Further interest rate rises are INEVITABLE - no matter who is in government
A move away from artificial, emergency lows indicates a further recovery from GFC effects

I'll be interested to see how the "we will keep interest rates low" encore will play out in the next polling of the electorate

.

I find it ioronic but not unexpected that after Wong basically told Brown and the greens to bugger off, that Brown rolled over and hops back into bed with them??


Labor and the greens will destroy this country, you dole bludgers on here 24/7 don't have jobs that will go when the ETS comes in but you'll be whinging when you have to pay more for less and don't get any rises in your dole payments.

ppl on the dole should not be allowed to vote, as your brainless, How hard is it to get a job, you got to be unemployable to be unemployed, and christ knows many of you here are unemployable.

Enjoy your fkd up ETS anal raping your going to get, but remember don't dam complain when your living by candle light cause you can't pay your bills, you brain dead morons.

You are too stupid to see what is basically right in front of you typical labor voters.

laborfornever wrote on Jul 19^th, 2010 at 5:25pm:

I find it ioronic but not unexpected that after Wong basically told Brown and the greens to bugger off, that Brown rolled over and hops back into bed with them?? Labor and the greens will destroy this country, you dole bludgers on here 24/7 don't have jobs that will go when the ETS comes in but you'll be whinging when you have to pay more for less and don't get any rises in your dole payments. ppl on the dole should not be allowed to vote, as your brainless, How hard is it to get a job, you got to be unemployable to be unemployed, and christ knows many of you here are unemployable. Enjoy your fkd up ETS anal raping your going to get, but remember don't dam complain when your living by candle light cause you can't pay your bills, you brain dead morons. You are too stupid to see what is basically right in front of you typical labor voters.

Alright settle down. It must drive you mad that the majority of Australians will probably vote Labor or Greens or Independents in this election. You'll get your turn when the Libs finally get a centre-right leader.

Polls will come & go, regularly, over the next 5 weeks.

That said, no matter what polls may say, I expect the final poll will be close, with a possible labor win, but it could just as easily go the other way!

Btw, welcome to Buzz & L4N and any other ex Yahoo types!

It drives me mad that the average person clearly has poo for brains, well given I own my own business work less than 10 hours a week but make 1.5 times the average wage why do I care. I earn plenty have more than I need.

Do I feel sorry for the less fortunate??

No dam way they were the dead beats that wagged school failed to apply themselvs to any task, took the easy option in life and are now enjoying the fruits of their lack of labour.

They ar ethe losers you see at the pub smoking ciggies sucking schooners all renting poo box units or derolict houses.

Fkem all the losers deserve everything they get, and labors policies reward them for their laziness.

Actually even though I know an ETS is coming and labor will financially bankrupt this country I'd like to see it happen and all the dam dole bludgers and scumbags are begging in the street for scraps.

it aint that far off if labor continue on their vandalistic ways.

nice labourfornever.

Ave wage was 64k this year. We did not get there.

http://www.livingin-australia.com/salaries-australia/


My husband who has worked 50 plus hours a week to support his family for years is a deadbeat, according to you!

My son who recently changed jobs, only earns 37k, which is up from the 25k he use to earn, is not a deadbeat!

New poll shows Labor edging Coalition
2 hours 2 minutes ago

The latest Nielsen poll in Fairfax newspapers shows Labor has an election-winning lead over the Coalition.

The poll has the Government leading the Opposition by 8 points on a two-party preferred basis, at 54 per cent to 46 per cent.

On the primary vote, Labor has nudged ahead to 42 per cent, while the Coalition is on 41 per cent.

The poll found Ms Gillard has a clear lead over Mr Abbott as preferred prime minister.

While the Neilsen figures are strong for Labor nationally, they show it is trailing by eight points in Queensland and Western Australia.

The Coalition could win up to 10 seats in Queensland on those figures.

Meanwhile, another poll for The West Australian reveals Julia Gillard's popularity with WA women may cost the Coalition a marginal seat in the upcoming election.

Tony Abbott has been campaigning heavily in the resource-rich state, hoping unease over the Government's mining tax could result in a flow of votes to the Coalition.

But Westpoll of four key seats shows the resolution of the mining stoush has helped the Government shore up votes in its most marginal seat of Hasluck.

The poll has the Coalition tracking better than the Labor Party on the mining tax but not convincingly, a sign the compromise had achieved the Government's goal of easing the electorate's fears over the tax.

The poll surveyed 1,650 voters in the seats of Canning, Hasluck, Cowan and Swan and also found female voters were more likely to vote Labor in the seat of Canning, currently held by the Liberals' Don Randall.

If the figures were to be borne out at the election, it would result in a narrow win for former WA state minister Alannah MacTiernan.

Ms Gillard has consistently polled strongly with female voters since coming to power.

However the poll also showed the Liberals are likely to hang onto the seat of Swan, contradicting the perception that last year's redistribution

The poll also has Cowan being returned to the Liberals.

http://www.abc.net.au/news/stories/2010/07/24/2963056.htm

yep, I just had obtained these figures below  for the I will be PM thread haha..you bet me buzz...

Gillard (58%) clearly preferred over Abbott (29%) as ‘Better PM’
More Approve of Gillard’s ‘Handling of Job’ (58%) than Abbott’s (42%, Roy Morgan)


:-*

On the basis of the poll of 1400, taken from Tuesday to Thursday, the government would get a national swing of about 1 per cent from the 2007 election. But the election result is likely to vary substantially between states.

In Victoria, Labor has a two-party lead of 56-44 per cent.

Ms Gillard's approval is up two points to 56 per cent; Mr Abbott's approval is steady on 43 per cent. The Prime Minister's disapproval is up one point to 33 per cent, while Mr Abbott's disapproval is unchanged on 51 per cent.

The Green vote is down one point to 12 per cent.

The poll shows that despite his attempt to persuade voters there would be no return to WorkChoices under the Coalition, voters are sceptical.

A majority (51 per cent) said Mr Abbott was likely to break his promise that the Coalition would not reintroduce WorkChoices, while 43 per cent thought he would keep it.

Former prime minister Kevin Rudd has overwhelming support for his bid to become foreign minister if the government is returned, with 68 per cent in favour and only 22 per cent opposed. Almost seven in 10 disapprove of the way Mr Rudd was replaced as PM (less than six in 10 Labor voters).

Asked how Mr Rudd's replacement as prime minister would affect their vote, 62 per cent said it would make no difference. A quarter said they were less likely to vote Labor, and 13 per cent were more likely.

People were divided over whether Labor deserves to be re-elected or the Coalition deserved to win. A majority (52 per cent) said the Coalition did not deserve to be elected, while 41 per cent thought it did. Just under half (48 per cent) believe the government did not deserve another term, while 46 per cent said it did. Among Labor voters only 11 per cent think the government doesn't deserve re-election.

Expectation of a Labor win is overwhelming and growing - 73 per cent expect the government to be returned, up nine points. Pollster John Stirton said this could invite a protest vote.

Campaigning in Perth, Mr Abbott said he thought there would be a change of government ''and yes, I think that I will be the next prime minister''.

http://www.theage.com.au/federal-election/women-rally-to-gillard-as-alp-leads-poll-20100723-10ow7.html

Quote:

Expectation of a Labor win is overwhelming and growing - 73 per cent expect the government to be returned, up nine points. Pollster John Stirton said this could invite a protest vote. Campaigning in Perth, Mr Abbott said he thought there would be a change of government ''and yes, I think that I will be the next prime minister''. http://www.theage.com.au/federal-election/women-rally-to-gillard-as-alp-leads-poll-20100723-10ow7.html

It remains to be seen, whether voters will protest more over the expected Lab win - or the Libs' out-of-touch folly, of giving  the head job to someone as patently bigoted, negative, divisive and delusional as Abbott...

As with my fave footy team, I will wait for the final siren

;D

Coalition gaining ground as Julia Gillard's rating drops
Dennis Shanahan, Political editor From: The Australian
July 25, 2010 10:15PM

LABOR has lost its handsome early 10-point two-party preferred vote lead over the Coalition.
And Julia Gillard's personal support has dropped for the first time since she became prime minister.

The ALP started last week with a second preference lead of 55 to 45 per cent over the Opposition and the Prime Minister had a 30-point lead over Tony Abbott as preferred prime minister.

But in the latest Newspoll survey, taken exclusively for The Australian last weekend, Labor's two-party preferred lead has shrunk to 52 to 48 per cent.

Labor's two-party preferred vote is now back to where it was when Mr Rudd was prime minister on the weekend before he was toppled in favour of Ms Gillard.

Labor would still win an election called now based on those second preference figures and won the last election with a two-party preferred vote of 52.7 to the Coalition's 47.3 per cent.

Ms Gillard's early leads over Mr Abbott as preferred prime minister have also been cut back with the 30-point lead she had at the beginning of the election campaign, 57 to 27 per cent, halving to 50 per cent to Mr Abbott's 34 per cent.

In the last survey on preferred prime minister while Mr Rudd was leader Mr Abbott trailed the then prime minister by 37 to 46 per cent.


http://www.theaustralian.com.au/national-affairs/coalition-gaining-ground-as-julia-gillards-rating-drops/story-fn59niix-1225896774195

laborfornever wrote on Jul 19^th, 2010 at 5:25pm:

I find it ioronic but not unexpected that after Wong basically told Brown and the greens to bugger off, that Brown rolled over and hops back into bed with them?? Labor and the greens will destroy this country, you dole bludgers on here 24/7 don't have jobs that will go when the ETS comes in but you'll be whinging when you have to pay more for less and don't get any rises in your dole payments. ppl on the dole should not be allowed to vote, as your brainless, How hard is it to get a job, you got to be unemployable to be unemployed, and christ knows many of you here are unemployable. Enjoy your fkd up ETS anal raping your going to get, but remember don't dam complain when your living by candle light cause you can't pay your bills, you brain dead morons. You are too stupid to see what is basically right in front of you typical labor voters.

sir,
you are a very rude individual.
and ill-informed.
i too have run a number of very successful businesses, and have now retired, self funded.
however your views on the unemployed, are for the most part wrong.
the fact is, there are just not enough real jobs here to accommodate everyone.
the factions that we're "voting" for know this and spin it.
if they were honest, it would be a case for stopping immigration here, totally.
that would put a lot of ppl just north of us in a very bad mood.
BUT it would stem unemployment here, a great deal.
this country, you and me included, have bigger things to worry about.
australia IS going down the tubes, and no gov't can fix it.
j.

<<australia IS going down the tubes, and no gov't can fix it.>>
.......................................................................................

I totally agree with what you said. The pollies can bicker and argue all they like, but they can't fix it. Lack of maintaining existing infrastructure and the development of new infrastructure has put the country a long way behind Europe and the developed countries, even the Eastern block countries have better infrastructure than us.

We have a lot of catching up to do, but no one willing to take on the big jobs. Labor will spend the money on inconsequential stuff, and the libs will pocket the money like they always do.

two 52 / 48 TPP Polls out today

Galaxy Primary :
ALP  steady on 38% ... 5 points down on the last election
Coalition down 3 to 41% ... 1.2 points down on last election
Greens up 3 points to 15% ... 7.2 points higher than last election

Newspoll
ALP 40%
Coalition 42%
Greens 12%
http://resources.news.com.au/files/2010/07/26/1225896/809052-aus-news-file-newspoll-260710.pdf


Greens are on target for Senate control ... and have a chance of gaining some control in the H of Reps.

____ wrote on Jul 26^th, 2010 at 9:04am:

two 52 / 48 TPP Polls out today Galaxy Primary : ALP  steady on 38% ... 5 points down on the last election Coalition down 3 to 41% ... 1.2 points down on last election Greens up 3 points to 15% ... 7.2 points higher than last election Newspoll ALP 40% Coalition 42% Greens 12% http://resources.news.com.au/files/2010/07/26/1225896/809052-aus-news-file-newspoll-260710.pdf Greens are on target for Senate control ... and have a chance of gaining some control in the H of Reps.

'Gaining some control' in the lower house requires you to win  some seats - something you havent yet even come close to. perhaps stick to the senate where the voting system permits losers to win seats instead.

Quote:

.........The coalition has cut back Labor’s 10-point lead to be within range of winning the August 21 poll, according to the latest Newspoll. While Labor still leads the coalition 52 per cent to 48 per cent, on a two-party preferred basis, support for the government has slipped three points since the start of the campaign. Satisfaction with Prime Minister Julia Gillard also slipped - from 48 per cent to 41 per cent - while Mr Abbott’s satisfaction rating is up four points to 40 per cent............

http://www.theage.com.au/federal-election/labor-still-in-front-but-gillard-slips-in-polls-20100726-10qvi.html?autostart=1

momentums abbotts way

I think Tony Abbotts performance is being wilfully underrated/distorted by our MSM, (Particularly Murdoch press) of which I believe are banking on dittoism to boost Gillards popularity and prolong her honeymoon effect.

I watched the Lie-detector debate last night on Channel 7, and whilst I think both were rather unremarkable on the whole,  I firmly believe Abbott performed much better than Gillard, this and think the results were interpreted in a manner which might be considered rather biased also.

Who interpreted the results?

A woman, and within minutes of the debate having concluded.

:)...Good thing is, I think quite a few of us saw through this, and don't believe for a minute Gillard performed as well and or is as popular as the media and those who interpreted the worm suggest.

Did you note the three journalists who were appointed to ask both Gillard and Abbott questions?

One from the ABC, the other two from Murdoch press.

pmsl

Honestly, they must think we were all born yesterday!

Sadly, I think too many probably were.

::)...Gillard displayed a certain smugness last night, this and avoided the hard questions, and people saw straight through this.

This is why she has declined an invitation to participate in anymore lie-detector tests, whereas Tony Abbott welcomes at least another two.

Gillard didn't mind appearing as a contestant earlier this year on a kid show  "It's academic" however.

Gillard knows she was shot down and lost the debate last night, irrespective of what's being reported in our media.

Bottom line, Gillard isn't performing as well as our news-polls/Murdoch press would have Australians believe.

8-)i

mellie wrote on Jul 26^th, 2010 at 11:21am:

I think Tony Abbotts performance is being wilfully underrated/distorted by our MSM, (Particularly Murdoch press) of which I believe are banking on dittoism to boost Gillards popularity and prolong her honeymoon effect. I watched the Lie-detector debate last night on Channel 7, and whilst I think both were rather unremarkable on the whole,  I firmly believe Abbott performed much better than Gillard, this and think the results were interpreted in a manner which might be considered rather biased also. Who interpreted the results? A woman, and within minutes of the debate having concluded. :)...Good thing is, I think quite a few of us saw through this, and don't believe for a minute Gillard performed as well and or is as popular as the media and those who interpreted the worm suggest. Did you note the three journalists who were appointed to ask both Gillard and Abbott questions? One from the ABC, the other two from Murdoch press. pmsl Honestly, they must think we were all born yesterday! Sadly, I think too many probably were. ::)...Gillard displayed a certain smugness last night, this and avoided the hard questions, and people saw straight through this. This is why she has declined an invitation to participate in anymore lie-detector tests, whereas Tony Abbott welcomes at least another two. Gillard didn't mind appearing as a contestant earlier this year on a kid show  "It's academic" however. Gillard knows she was shot down and lost the debate last night, irrespective of what's being reported in our media. Bottom line, Gillard isn't performing as well as our news-polls/Murdoch press would have Australians believe. 8-)

Our respective preconceptions and biases notwithstanding....

Ironically, more even-looking polls are precisely what the Labs need now - and exactly what the Libs don't need...

The Labs want more even pre-polling, lest there may be a last minute protest vote if they look like romping it in...

The Libs want more polarised results - cos they need the electorate to be afraid that the Labs will be returned with an increased majority...

As an electorate, the best thing is close polling - so that we are forced to think hard about the pros and cons of each party steering the country over the next 3 globally-challenging years, and beyond...

do you leftys have a course on "rambling poo till everyone gives up", or is it genetic ?

Sprintcyclist wrote on Jul 26^th, 2010 at 11:40am:

do you leftys have a course on "rambling poo till everyone gives up", or is it genetic ?

LOL...that coming from someone, who supports someone, who refers to grave global challenges as 'crap' and has made a habit out of cynically undermining positive policies by parrotting 'a great big piss on everything'...

just answer the question please,  gillEquitist

Sprintcyclist wrote on Jul 26^th, 2010 at 11:50am:

just answer the question please,  gillEquitist

LOL, SC...I've changed my ID just for you :-*



PS I also changed my forum view from ruddy red to true blue - it's gonna take a bit of getting used to!

PPS Make a rhetorical statement, get a rhetorical answer.

Crikey Sprint, I think your lycras must have twisted round your goolies and deprived them of oxygen too long, if you really believe your comment became a question because you put a question mark at the end of it.

Abbott could go on telly biting the heads off cute puppies, and you would still be saying he is awesome, so do not pretend your prejudice is more intellectually supportable than those of similarly prejudiced people from the other side of politics.

Barring any major governmental scandal between now and polling day, Labor will win, and pretty convincingly too, so suck it up for a few more years of whining and let's hope that in the post election Liberal bloodbath, they can find a leader better than Abbott, who can drag them back from extreme right wing idiocy.

"The boats, the boats, the boats", he is like a broken record trying to play on people's fears, which is typical of ultra nationalist loons, even though his minders have kept him very controlled in public, all who follow politics know he is an extremist at heart.

depends if they were leftard puppies or not .

the boats, the debt and an inactive govt
$100 M a day your heroes put us further into debt
only the mindless morons should be liable for it

what's the lefts answers, tax the air, tax the successful business, make a bigger govt.

Rather than focus on you leftys, or you rightys, we should be working on an all inclusive "US"..to get our machine right, be it left or right.

:) It's our country, lets all shape it.

Sprintcyclist wrote on Jul 26^th, 2010 at 12:27pm:

depends if they were leftard puppies or not . the boats, the debt and an inactive govt $100 M a day your heroes put us further into debt only the mindless morons should be liable for it what's the lefts answers, tax the air, tax the successful business, make a bigger govt.

The funny thing is you actually think Labor are leftards.

We had a birthday party for our two year old daughter yesterday with around 30 friends and family from all different walks of life from doctors to council workers.

After watching the debate and from the response from our group neither party got the thumbs up.

What I can tell you is the majority won't be voting for Julia Gillard and some say they won't vote for either party. The most positive negative if you like was directed towards Julia Gillard.

I don't bet but I can only go by what I hear and how could anyone trust these poll results there all over the shop.

Both my husband and I agree Julia Gillard is in a lot of trouble if our circle of friends and their circle of are saying they don't like her.

Anyway hope that helps.

Big Donger wrote on Jul 26^th, 2010 at 12:55pm:

Sprintcyclist wrote on Jul 26th, 2010 at 12:27pm: depends if they were leftard puppies or not . the boats, the debt and an inactive govt $100 M a day your heroes put us further into debt only the mindless morons should be liable for it what's the lefts answers, tax the air, tax the successful business, make a bigger govt. The funny thing is you actually think Labor are leftards.

Great point Karnal, you're right, Labor now days is to the right of the likes of Menzies, Holt Gorton and Fraser, Howard took the Libs so far to the right and Labor followed.
The choice we have is an extreme far right wing neo con party, the Liberals, or a right wing party, Labor, if you really want a left leaning party vote GREENS or Social Aliance.

ellis wrote on Jul 26^th, 2010 at 12:58pm:

We had a birthday party for our two year old daughter yesterday with around 30 friends and family from all different walks of life from doctors to council workers. After watching the debate and from the response from our group neither party got the thumbs up. What I can tell you is the majority won't be voting for Julia Gillard and some say they won't vote for either party. The most positive negative if you like was directed towards Julia Gillard. I don't bet but I can only go by what I hear and how could anyone trust these poll results there all over the shop. Both my husband and I agree Julia Gillard is in a lot of trouble if our circle of friends and their circle of are saying they don't like her. Anyway hope that helps.

This is the general consensus in my circles also, (friends, family,associates), though it's subjective, depending on what circles you move in I guess... one things for certain, this is going to be a very difficult election to predict....

Due to our key-indicators (media, polls)  being quite subjective in themselves.
:)

skippy. wrote on Jul 26^th, 2010 at 1:00pm:

Big Donger wrote on Jul 26th, 2010 at 12:55pm: Sprintcyclist wrote on Jul 26th, 2010 at 12:27pm: depends if they were leftard puppies or not . the boats, the debt and an inactive govt $100 M a day your heroes put us further into debt only the mindless morons should be liable for it what's the lefts answers, tax the air, tax the successful business, make a bigger govt. The funny thing is you actually think Labor are leftards. Great point Karnal, you're right, Labor now days is to the right of the likes of Menzies, Holt Gorton and Fraser, Howard took the Libs so far to the right and Labor followed. The choice we have is an extreme far right wing neo con party, the Liberals, or a right wing party, Labor, if you really want a left leaning party vote GREENS or Social Aliance.

Not sure, but i'm told Greens popularity has declined in recent weeks, not sure if this is due to their preference swing or not..this or Bob Brown admitting on lateline he himself disagrees with his own partys decision to allocate preferences, but they've lost lustre and votes in recent weeks,... SA have recently pulled out of Greens national consensus (re- Labor preferences)full-stop... since Bob Brown appeared on Lateline. And I think at least one other Greens member has also.

Lemmy get back to you on this...

Bottom line, how can we place faith in a party who's leader isn't in agreeance with his own party, this and  remains divided, and seemingly not at ease with his partys own preference deal...  on what may very well hold the balance of power in terms of who wins, and who loses this election?

It appears the radical rebel Greens have rebelled against their own party's leader even, this or he's rebelled against them..dunno.... ::)

I reckon Bob Brown will retire soon, and someone else will lead the Greens.

He's making too many mistakes, particularly where the media are concerned.

He would have done better to decline the interview, this opposed to putting his foot in it.

Well it looks like you are still getting your info from a dud source Mellie, the GREENS are more than double what they were at the last election including in todays newspoll,and everyone with half a brain knows that the Murdoch polls favour Liberal/Nats, so expect it to be even higher.

Whilst they may be doing considerably better since last election...they have declined again since Bob Brown went on lateline and dropped the bomb re-preference votes.

Hence SA have pulled out, (though Greens have now withdrawn this alleged amended action a few days ago) many having boycotted the preference arrangement altogether , Oh what a mess Skip..
Check out this poll...

http://theland.farmonline.com.au/news/nationalrural/agribusiness-and-general/political/greens-fix-preferences-gaffe/1893380.aspx

because Greens supporting either leading party's seemingly against their own better judgement  has annoyed quite a few traditional green voters, (on specific issues), now it appears they are not satisfied with their party supporting/promoting any of our leading partys, much less family first , the party they traditionally regard as being fundamentally racist.

LOL thats gold mellie, a poll about the GREENS from THE LAND LOL.
I choose to get my results form non biased souces mel, I live on a farm and get THE LAND, in the last copy the editorial was running the line that the GREENS were commies and vote NATIONAL, LOL.

I know you're upset that the GREENS have done a deal with Labor, though I cant see why, why would the GREENS do deals with the coalition when the coalition dont even believe in climate change?

BTW, where I live the GREENS are more popular than the Nationals, even among farmers, in fact the booth I vote in has been won by the GREENS for over ten years.
I'm not surprised the LAND are pushing National votes though, the Nats need all the help they can get, they are polling 4% to the GREENS 14% at worst, probably closer to 16%.

Not upset at all Skip, they have done damage to their own credibility this election with their double-standard preferences, without anyone's support.

Now they are being regarded by their own even as being that Other-Labor Party.  ...  Has a nice ring to it don't you think? OLP! pmsl

Or perhaps they should just call it Labors-Other-preference-Party..rearrange the letters a little, keep in theme with their leader Bob Brown and just call it PLOP!

Sorry, I'm being a tad childish, but you have to admit Skip, they aren't in good form , as a party I mean, given they remain quite divided on the preference arrangement/enforcement.

Honestly, they need to put Bob Brown to bed. ::)

Quote:

LOL thats gold mellie, a poll about the GREENS from THE LAND LOL.

Not unlike Murdoch's polls on Liberals?

hahaha

Yes, it's all so smacking hilarious isn't it skip, hey, you wont get an argument out of me on this.

;D

I agree that Labor is not a Left Party any more, even though they do have their Leftie dinosaurs the fact is they are a little right of centre on many issues, whilst the Libs drifted further and further right under the Howard leadership.
Turnbull tried to turn that around, and if Abbott hadn't knifed him, or if Howard had not lied to Costello, and reneged on his word, then the Libs would be a shoe in for this election, because they would be a far more centrist party than that we see under Abbott.

The Libs have three choices, split off from the right wing loonies, start a new party, and reclaim the middle ground, or stay as one party but put a moderate leader up who can lead them slowly back to the middle ground, or get used to being right wing loons in opposition.

mozzaok wrote on Jul 26^th, 2010 at 2:08pm:

I agree that Labor is not a Left Party any more, even though they do have their Leftie dinosaurs the fact is they are a little right of centre on many issues, whilst the Libs drifted further and further right under the Howard leadership. Turnbull tried to turn that around, and if Abbott hadn't knifed him, or if Howard had not lied to Costello, and reneged on his word, then the Libs would be a shoe in for this election, because they would be a far more centrist party than that we see under Abbott. The Libs have three choices, split off from the right wing loonies, start a new party, and reclaim the middle ground, or stay as one party but put a moderate leader up who can lead them slowly back to the middle ground, or get used to being right wing loons in opposition.

Or perhaps the Nationals should withdraw from the Coalition, and try for the 'Centrist' crown???

Hey Mozz, say if Bronwyn Bishop had have taken the liberal lead when Abbot came in, do you think this would have made a difference?

It's getting ridiculous, some people are really taking the V-vote thing too far...and of course little pink ribbons on all our grocery items doesn't help...(there aren't too many blue ribbons on mens products)..despite Julia Gillards partner being Labors ambassador for mens health.

I think as a nation, if anything, this obvious gender bias demonstrates our nations overall lack of maturity where voting is concerned...when this election has very much become a battle of the sexes.

::) Disappointing, and I'm embarrassed of my fellow man and woman kind  for demonstrating how superficial and ignorant we all really are , but worthy of consideration in terms of planning future elections.

Had Libs seen Gillard coming, do you suppose they would have appointed Bronwyn Bishop as their leader instead?

This or at least toyed with the prospect?



I sure hope it passes, irrespective of who wins the election, I doubt anyone would like to think they got in on gender alone, particularly with respects to our nation being notoriously sexist as it is.
(however hard we try to deny it)....
I think this election has demonstrated that both woman and men in Australia are equally gender biased, and if nothing else is achieved in the lead up to this election, perhaps we could all learn a little something from this in terms of neutrality, merit, and perceived entitlement.

:)

Right you are, today's Labor party is far from Left, and I think they knew this was the general consensus among both left and right voters, hence they appointed a female from a LEFT labor faction.

When two negativities make a positive...

;)..So it appears.

mellie wrote on Jul 26^th, 2010 at 2:38pm:

Right you are, today's Labor party is far from Left, and I think they knew this was the general consensus among both left and right voters, hence they appointed a female from a LEFT labor faction. When two negativities make a positive... ;)..So it appears.

You left out the fact that she was virtually forced to take the job by the right wing of the victorian branch of the party.

Labor has left wing ideology with right wing pragmatism, and guess which one wins, the beliefs, or the necessities?

And also, surely you meant JULIE Bishop, not that other old trout that looks like an extra from a carry on film, Matron Cuddlemequick, or some such character, brrrrhhhh, I get cold chills just thinking about it.

Quote:

say if Bronwyn Bishop had have taken the liberal lead when Abbot came in, do you think this would have made a difference?

Bishop is of the same faction as Abbott, NOT MODERATE.
The only real chance the Libs have is Turnbull, but its too late now, had he been leader I think the Libs would have won in this election.
AND, I also think the GREENS would have happily done a deal for preferences with the Libs under Turnbull, he believes in climate change.
The Libs must install Turnbull as leader come august 22, or face another term after this next one still in opposition, that or as mozz says, start a new centerist party with Turnbull as leader.
The thing is the Libs have no smacking idea, they elect a wanker like Abbott and all the Lib cheer squad cheer, but no swinging moderate voter is going to go for him, he is more extreme than Howard ten fold, and we all know what hapened to Howard when he wouldn't budge on his right wing extreme policies.

skippy. wrote on Jul 26^th, 2010 at 2:58pm:

Quote: say if Bronwyn Bishop had have taken the liberal lead when Abbot came in, do you think this would have made a difference? Bishop is of the same faction as Abbott, NOT MODERATE. The only real chance the Libs have is Turnbull, but its too late now, had he been leader I think the Libs would have won in this election. AND, I also think the GREENS would have happily done a deal for preferences with the Libs under Turnbull, he believes in climate change. The Libs must install Turnbull as leader come august 22, or face another term after this next one still in opposition, that or as mozz says, start a new centerist party with Turnbull as leader. The thing is the Libs have no smacking idea, they elect a wanker like Abbott and all the Lib cheer squad cheer, but no swinging moderate voter is going to go for him, he is more extreme than Howard ten fold, and we all know what hapened to Howard when he wouldn't budge on his right wing extreme policies.

Turnbull didnt stand a chance.  His popularity was in the pits and the ALP had more than a commanding lead over the Libs.  You just liked Turnbull more because he was going to give you your ETS

skippy. wrote on Jul 26^th, 2010 at 1:53pm:

LOL thats gold mellie, a poll about the GREENS from THE LAND LOL. I choose to get my results form non biased souces mel, I live on a farm and get THE LAND, in the last copy the editorial was running the line that the GREENS were commies and vote NATIONAL, LOL. I know you're upset that the GREENS have done a deal with Labor, though I cant see why, why would the GREENS do deals with the coalition when the coalition dont even believe in climate change? BTW, where I live the GREENS are more popular than the Nationals, even among farmers, in fact the booth I vote in has been won by the GREENS for over ten years. I'm not surprised the LAND are pushing National votes though, the Nats need all the help they can get, they are polling 4% to the GREENS 14% at worst, probably closer to 16%.

are you that informed about the differences betwen a coalition and a single party? The nationals vote is well above 4% in the seats where they  actually field a candidate since they have actually WON quite a number of seats in the lower house - something the Greens have not done.  spreading the nationals vote across all seats - including where they dont stand is hardly informative in a seat-by-seat analysis.

Has anyone questioned why the (un)australian refused to put the individual primary of libs and nats ... instead put the combined.

http://www.theaustralian.com.au/national-affairs/coalition-narrows-the-gap/story-fn59niix-1225896788276


just curious if nats are up and libs are down?

____ wrote on Jul 26^th, 2010 at 6:37pm:

Has anyone questioned why the (un)australian refused to put the individual primary of libs and nats ... instead put the combined. http://www.theaustralian.com.au/national-affairs/coalition-narrows-the-gap/story-fn59niix-1225896788276 just curious if nats are up and libs are down?

Why would you care other than to satisfy your perennial hatred of the Nats?

Here's the link to the latest Newspoll stats: -

http://www.newspoll.com.au/image_uploads/100707%20Fed%20voting&%20leaders%20&%20vot%20comm%20&%20party%20to%20win.pdf

This section is particularly interestiing: -

---

wow you discovered that most people think labor will win. is that supposed to be some kind of endorsement?

longweekend58 wrote on Jul 26^th, 2010 at 10:02pm:

wow you discovered that most people think labor will win. is that supposed to be some kind of endorsement?

longweekend - Do you think Labor will win?

longweekend said ...

Why would you care other than to satisfy your perennial hatred of the Nats?


_/_/_/


as the election gets closer, longweekend's posts get the more desperate.

Any link to where I have posted on the net that I hate the nationals?


Now back to reality  ... if the (un)Australian are refusing to put in the breakdown of the Lib/Nat primary, is this to hide that the Nats have increased in primary and the libs haven't.

Nationals are not running candidates in every electorate and so would decrease the potency of this potential increase ... is this why the (un)Australian hiding the primary votes!

[quoteas the election gets closer, longweekend's posts get the more desperate.

][/quote]

He;s a  nutter, at least the extreme rightards who usually post on these forums try and produce some links to their stories, this nutter along with mellie and Iamatosser think if they repeat their sh1t over and over it will stick( it must happen at home when he throws it at the kiddies). :o

Ex Dame Pansi wrote on Jul 27^th, 2010 at 6:54am:

longweekend58 wrote on Jul 26th, 2010 at 10:02pm: wow you discovered that most people think labor will win. is that supposed to be some kind of endorsement? longweekend - Do you think Labor will win?

At this stage, I expect labor to win. That is hardly surprising given the polls. but unlike most elections, I am unable to offer and opinion onthe margin as the polls are all over the place. they vary from solid win to slight loss so it is stil anyone's guess. But yes, labor wil most likely win.

alp romps in on porkbarrelling



http://resources0.news.com.au/images/2010/07/28/1225897/785744-projects.jpg

Sprintcyclist wrote on Jul 28^th, 2010 at 8:45am:

alp romps in on porkbarrelling http://resources0.news.com.au/images/2010/07/28/1225897/785744-projects.jpg

It wouldnt be a labor government if it wasnt feathering their own nest and electorates!

skippy. wrote on Jul 27^th, 2010 at 8:26am:

[quoteas the election gets closer, longweekend's posts get the more desperate. ]

He;s a  nutter, at least the extreme rightards who usually post on these forums try and produce some links to their stories, this nutter along with mellie and Iamatosser think if they repeat their sh1t over and over it will stick( it must happen at home when he throws it at the kiddies). :o
[/quote]
It's the crack: It's the crack I tells ya!

 :D :D ;) ....actually not that funny!

These people like to own your kids by way of smashing their hopes and dreams with next to inescapable rent!

"More houses!", is their mantra!

The latest Newspoll shows Labor losing its election-winning lead as the Coaltion draws level heading into the third week of the election campaign.

The poll, published in this morning's The Australian newspaper, shows a 50-50 split in the two-party preferred vote.

Labor's two-party approval rating fell by 2 per cent while the Coalition gained 2 per cent.

Labor also lost ground in the primary vote, falling three points to be on 37 per cent against the Coalition's 44 per cent. The Greens were steady on 12 per cent.

Julia Gillard is still the preferred prime minister, leading Opposition Leader Tony Abbott 50 per cent to 35 per cent.

The latest numbers follow the weekend's Nielsen poll, which had the Coalition ahead of the ALP.

That poll showed the Coalition leading Labor 52 points to 48 on a two-party preferred basis.


http://www.abc.net.au/news/stories/2010/08/02/2970377.htm

buzzanddidj wrote on Aug 2^nd, 2010 at 7:02am:

The latest Newspoll shows Labor losing its election-winning lead as the Coaltion draws level heading into the third week of the election campaign. The poll, published in this morning's The Australian newspaper, shows a 50-50 split in the two-party preferred vote. Labor's two-party approval rating fell by 2 per cent while the Coalition gained 2 per cent. Labor also lost ground in the primary vote, falling three points to be on 37 per cent against the Coalition's 44 per cent. The Greens were steady on 12 per cent. Julia Gillard is still the preferred prime minister, leading Opposition Leader Tony Abbott 50 per cent to 35 per cent. The latest numbers follow the weekend's Nielsen poll, which had the Coalition ahead of the ALP. That poll showed the Coalition leading Labor 52 points to 48 on a two-party preferred basis. http://www.abc.net.au/news/stories/2010/08/02/2970377.htm

The latest polls are certainly m,aking a joke out of this thread's title!

It seems though the swing is due to people seeing the real Julia Gillard, anti pensioners, anti families.

Shame the election isnt in another 6 weeks, at this rate its Gillard who is hanging herself, not Abbott.

perhaps people are uncomfortable about voting for someone who decieved their boss to the highest degree , and now is rushing us all in to vote .

perhaps voters don't like proved failures as leaders ??

Sprintcyclist wrote on Aug 2^nd, 2010 at 10:01am:

perhaps people are uncomfortable about voting for someone who decieved their boss to the highest degree , and now is rushing us all in to vote . perhaps voters don't like proved failures as leaders ??

the mistake they made in replacing Rudd with Gillard is that there is no identifiable difference between the two other than gender. the gender voting advanatage evaporated after 2 weeks and now they are left with rudd-in-a-dress and all the anger over his knifing. It was a very very bad mistake from a party that has done little else than make bad mistakes.

longweekend58 wrote on Aug 2^nd, 2010 at 9:53am:

buzzanddidj wrote on Aug 2nd, 2010 at 7:02am: The latest Newspoll shows Labor losing its election-winning lead as the Coaltion draws level heading into the third week of the election campaign. The poll, published in this morning's The Australian newspaper, shows a 50-50 split in the two-party preferred vote. Labor's two-party approval rating fell by 2 per cent while the Coalition gained 2 per cent. Labor also lost ground in the primary vote, falling three points to be on 37 per cent against the Coalition's 44 per cent. The Greens were steady on 12 per cent. Julia Gillard is still the preferred prime minister, leading Opposition Leader Tony Abbott 50 per cent to 35 per cent. The latest numbers follow the weekend's Nielsen poll, which had the Coalition ahead of the ALP. That poll showed the Coalition leading Labor 52 points to 48 on a two-party preferred basis. http://www.abc.net.au/news/stories/2010/08/02/2970377.htm The latest polls are certainly m,aking a joke out of this thread's title!

And yet, a swing back to Labor from the recent Nielsen poll


Abbott leads Gillard in latest poll
July 31, 2010

JULIA Gillard has taken a battering in the latest opinion poll, which shows the Coalition would win the election if it was held now.

Support for the Prime Minister and Labor has fallen dramatically while the Opposition has taken the lead in the Herald/Nielsen poll published today.

The Coalition is now ahead of Labor on a two-party preferred basis by 52 per cent to 48 per cent - a six percentage point swing against the government since the last Nielsen poll a week ago.



http://www.news.com.au/breaking-news/abbott-leads-gillard-in-latest-poll/story-e6frfku0-1225899282954#ixzz0vP5e2s7O



Expect more erratic poll patterns over the next month
This election is ANYONES
The ONLY certainty is a Green's balance of power in the Senate

||And yet, a swing back to Labor from the recent Nielsen poll||

are  you really that desperate to find a silver lining? if we conclude that different pollsters wil get slightly different results then we should compare them only with themsevles. ergo, NO swing back to labor.

Just face it, the 'slaughter' you were so confident about and bragging about only 6 months ago is long gone. just winning this election wil be s surprise for labor and then only because of green preferences. If first preferences alone decided the seats then labor might lose 50 seats instead. as it is you are still looking increasingly as having to exist under PM tony Abbott.

The Monthly's Straw Poll

The Monthly Poll, No. 1, 30 July-1 August, 961 responses.

The Monthly Poll comprises individual predictions averaged to give a group prediction.

PRIMARY VOTE

Q: If a federal election for the House of Representatives was held today, what percentage of the vote do you believe each of the following would secure:

PRIMARY VOTE
     

COALITION % 42
     

LABOR % 43
     

GREENS % 11
     

OTHERS % 4

30 July-1 August
     
TWO PARTY PREFERRED

Q: After preferences what do you believe the two party preferred share of the vote would be:

TWO-PARTY PREFERRED        
     

COALITION 48
     

LABOR 52

30 July-1 August
     
PRIME MINISTER'S APPROVAL

Q: How satisfied or dissatisfied do you believe voters are with the way Julia Gillard is doing her job as prime minister:

PRIME MINISTER'S APPROVAL
     

SATISFIED      48    
     

DISSATISFIED  36
     

UNCOMMITTED  16

30 July-1 August
     

OPPOSITION LEADER'S APPROVAL

Q: How satisfied or dissatisfied do you believe voters are with the way Tony Abbott is doing his job as leader of the Opposition:

OPPOSITION LEADER'S APPROVAL
     

SATISFIED    39      
     

DISSATISFIED  45
     

UNCOMMITTED  16

30 July-1 August
     

BETTER PRIME MINISTER

Q: Who do you believe voters think would make the better prime minister:

BETTER PRIME MINISTER
     

JULIA GILLARD  58
     

TONY ABBOTT  42

30 July-1 August
     

This is not your average joe's being polled on a Sunday night by phone here, it's individuals who subscribe to a monthly political magazine.
The uncommited for both Abbott & Gillard in Job approval is interesting

Dsmithy70 wrote on Aug 2^nd, 2010 at 4:27pm:

The Monthly's Straw Poll The Monthly Poll, No. 1, 30 July-1 August, 961 responses. The Monthly Poll comprises individual predictions averaged to give a group prediction. PRIMARY VOTE Q: If a federal election for the House of Representatives was held today, what percentage of the vote do you believe each of the following would secure: PRIMARY VOTE       COALITION % 42       LABOR % 43       GREENS % 11       OTHERS % 4 30 July-1 August       TWO PARTY PREFERRED Q: After preferences what do you believe the two party preferred share of the vote would be: TWO-PARTY PREFERRED               COALITION 48       LABOR 52 30 July-1 August       PRIME MINISTER'S APPROVAL Q: How satisfied or dissatisfied do you believe voters are with the way Julia Gillard is doing her job as prime minister: PRIME MINISTER'S APPROVAL       SATISFIED      48           DISSATISFIED  36       UNCOMMITTED  16 30 July-1 August       OPPOSITION LEADER'S APPROVAL Q: How satisfied or dissatisfied do you believe voters are with the way Tony Abbott is doing his job as leader of the Opposition: OPPOSITION LEADER'S APPROVAL       SATISFIED    39             DISSATISFIED  45       UNCOMMITTED  16 30 July-1 August       BETTER PRIME MINISTER Q: Who do you believe voters think would make the better prime minister: BETTER PRIME MINISTER       JULIA GILLARD  58       TONY ABBOTT  42 30 July-1 August       This is not your average joe's being polled on a Sunday night by phone here, it's individuals who subscribe to a monthly political magazine. The uncommited for both Abbott & Gillard in Job approval is interesting

and the fact that it is by no means a random sample and is at odds with the latest polls means...???

longweekend58 wrote on Aug 2^nd, 2010 at 4:30pm:

Dsmithy70 wrote on Aug 2nd, 2010 at 4:27pm: The Monthly's Straw Poll The Monthly Poll, No. 1, 30 July-1 August, 961 responses. The Monthly Poll comprises individual predictions averaged to give a group prediction. PRIMARY VOTE Q: If a federal election for the House of Representatives was held today, what percentage of the vote do you believe each of the following would secure: PRIMARY VOTE       COALITION % 42       LABOR % 43       GREENS % 11       OTHERS % 4 30 July-1 August       TWO PARTY PREFERRED Q: After preferences what do you believe the two party preferred share of the vote would be: TWO-PARTY PREFERRED               COALITION 48       LABOR 52 30 July-1 August       PRIME MINISTER'S APPROVAL Q: How satisfied or dissatisfied do you believe voters are with the way Julia Gillard is doing her job as prime minister: PRIME MINISTER'S APPROVAL       SATISFIED      48           DISSATISFIED  36       UNCOMMITTED  16 30 July-1 August       OPPOSITION LEADER'S APPROVAL Q: How satisfied or dissatisfied do you believe voters are with the way Tony Abbott is doing his job as leader of the Opposition: OPPOSITION LEADER'S APPROVAL       SATISFIED    39             DISSATISFIED  45       UNCOMMITTED  16 30 July-1 August       BETTER PRIME MINISTER Q: Who do you believe voters think would make the better prime minister: BETTER PRIME MINISTER       JULIA GILLARD  58       TONY ABBOTT  42 30 July-1 August       This is not your average joe's being polled on a Sunday night by phone here, it's individuals who subscribe to a monthly political magazine. The uncommited for both Abbott & Gillard in Job approval is interesting and the fact that it is by no means a random sample and is at odds with the latest polls means...???

hhmmm i wonder what the mag is called

It's still too early to call...

And rather than engage in Labors poll-driven campaign politics, and vapour trail policies, I'd like to see her doing something more interesting than posing seductively in a Woman's Weekly magazine.

This woman is supposed to be our PM, and when I saw her on the front cover of the Woman's Weekly, she came off as more 'celebrity', not someone we should be taking seriously.

Would be great if Gillard would accept Tony Abbotts invitation to more live public debates.

:)

Why is it that when the Libs were being beaten by 56/44 last week it was an outlier, but when the Libs are 50/50 it is "at odds"?
You cant take one poll and call it fact, you need to do an average over the polls and so far Labor are still ahead.
I will give it to the Libs though, they are as untruthfull with their smear campaigns as they were under the lying little rodent.

skippy. wrote on Aug 2^nd, 2010 at 4:39pm:

Why is it that when the Libs were being beaten by 56/44 last week it was an outlier, but when the Libs are 50/50 it is "at odds"? You cant take one poll and call it fact, you need to do an average over the polls and so far Labor are still ahead. I will give it to the Libs though, they are as untruthfull with their smear campaigns as they were under the lying little rodent.

Its your own party leaks that are doing the damage champ, not the Libs.

skippy. wrote on Aug 2^nd, 2010 at 4:39pm:

Why is it that when the Libs were being beaten by 56/44 last week it was an outlier, but when the Libs are 50/50 it is "at odds"? You cant take one poll and call it fact, you need to do an average over the polls and so far Labor are still ahead. I will give it to the Libs though, they are as untruthfull with their smear campaigns as they were under the lying little rodent.

maybe because a 12point margin disappearing ina  week is unlikely. or it could be that every other poll at the time had it at 52/48 - a big difference. it WAS an outlier as the polls before and after it showed and the other polls proved.

none of which chanegs the fact that labor looks set to loose 10 seats in QLD, 7 in NSW and 3 in VIC and 3 in WA and probably one in NT. That translates to a comfortable majority for Abbott.

Verge wrote on Aug 2^nd, 2010 at 4:41pm:

skippy. wrote on Aug 2nd, 2010 at 4:39pm: Why is it that when the Libs were being beaten by 56/44 last week it was an outlier, but when the Libs are 50/50 it is "at odds"? You cant take one poll and call it fact, you need to do an average over the polls and so far Labor are still ahead. I will give it to the Libs though, they are as untruthfull with their smear campaigns as they were under the lying little rodent. Its your own party leaks that are doing the damage champ, not the Libs.

who needs to smear Labor when they are smearing themselves far more efectively!!!

mellie wrote on Aug 2^nd, 2010 at 4:37pm:

It's still too early to call... And rather than engage in Labors poll-driven campaign politics, and vapour trail policies, I'd like to see her doing something more interesting than posing seductively in a Woman's Weekly magazine. This woman is supposed to be our PM, and when I saw her on the front cover of the Woman's Weekly, she came off as more 'celebrity', not someone we should be taking seriously. Would be great if Gillard would accept Tony Abbotts invitation to more live public debates. :)

Want to be careful there millie or you'll get skewered as Ackerman did on Insiders yesterday.
All p!ss & wind about Julia in Women's Weekly & how it is poor form & she shouldn't do it & how Tony doesn't, When low & behold it's revealed Tony's on the cover with a 7 page spread inside of the next edition of Men's Health PLUS he & his family featured in Womens Weekly 2 months ago.
Here's the link watch it is bloody funny.
http://www.abc.net.au/insiders/
scroll down to Gillards magazine spread attracts attention

Verge wrote on Aug 2^nd, 2010 at 4:41pm:

skippy. wrote on Aug 2nd, 2010 at 4:39pm: Why is it that when the Libs were being beaten by 56/44 last week it was an outlier, but when the Libs are 50/50 it is "at odds"? You cant take one poll and call it fact, you need to do an average over the polls and so far Labor are still ahead. I will give it to the Libs though, they are as untruthfull with their smear campaigns as they were under the lying little rodent. Its your own party leaks that are doing the damage champ, not the Libs.

Are the GREENS smearing Labor,chump?

longweekend58 wrote on Aug 2^nd, 2010 at 4:43pm:

skippy. wrote on Aug 2nd, 2010 at 4:39pm: Why is it that when the Libs were being beaten by 56/44 last week it was an outlier, but when the Libs are 50/50 it is "at odds"? You cant take one poll and call it fact, you need to do an average over the polls and so far Labor are still ahead. I will give it to the Libs though, they are as untruthfull with their smear campaigns as they were under the lying little rodent. maybe because a 12point margin disappearing ina  week is unlikely. or it could be that every other poll at the time had it at 52/48 - a big difference. it WAS an outlier as the polls before and after it showed and the other polls proved. none of which chanegs the fact that labor looks set to loose 10 seats in QLD, 7 in NSW and 3 in VIC and 3 in WA and probably one in NT. That translates to a comfortable majority for Abbott.

I'll assume you're not lying ,what seats are they seeing as though you seem so certain? lets go through them and see how they fall.

skippy. wrote on Aug 2^nd, 2010 at 4:53pm:

longweekend58 wrote on Aug 2nd, 2010 at 4:43pm: skippy. wrote on Aug 2nd, 2010 at 4:39pm: Why is it that when the Libs were being beaten by 56/44 last week it was an outlier, but when the Libs are 50/50 it is "at odds"? You cant take one poll and call it fact, you need to do an average over the polls and so far Labor are still ahead. I will give it to the Libs though, they are as untruthfull with their smear campaigns as they were under the lying little rodent. maybe because a 12point margin disappearing ina  week is unlikely. or it could be that every other poll at the time had it at 52/48 - a big difference. it WAS an outlier as the polls before and after it showed and the other polls proved. none of which chanegs the fact that labor looks set to loose 10 seats in QLD, 7 in NSW and 3 in VIC and 3 in WA and probably one in NT. That translates to a comfortable majority for Abbott. I'll assume you're not lying ,what seats are they seeing as though you seem so certain? lets go through them and see how they fall.

It was in a newspapaer article on the weekend. I wil look for it and see what I can find. the problem for Labor is not so much the 2PP but the fact that they are losing worse in the marginals. THATS where the action is and could have Abbott win even if the 2PP is slightly in labor's favour.

Dsmithy70 wrote on Aug 2^nd, 2010 at 4:49pm:

mellie wrote on Aug 2nd, 2010 at 4:37pm: It's still too early to call... And rather than engage in Labors poll-driven campaign politics, and vapour trail policies, I'd like to see her doing something more interesting than posing seductively in a Woman's Weekly magazine. This woman is supposed to be our PM, and when I saw her on the front cover of the Woman's Weekly, she came off as more 'celebrity', not someone we should be taking seriously. Would be great if Gillard would accept Tony Abbotts invitation to more live public debates. :) Want to be careful there millie or you'll get skewered as Ackerman did on Insiders yesterday. All p!ss & wind about Julia in Women's Weekly & how it is poor form & she shouldn't do it & how Tony doesn't, When low & behold it's revealed Tony's on the cover with a 7 page spread inside of the next edition of Men's Health PLUS he & his family featured in Womens Weekly 2 months ago. Here's the link watch it is bloody funny. http://www.abc.net.au/insiders/ scroll down to Gillards magazine spread attracts attention

I wasn't able to read the article,(due to it not linking to where you said it did) ... now rather than pissing in the wind, with innuendo, how about you demonstrate some real class and put the link up here yourself to something real.

8-)....

I saw that on Insiders yesterday too, dont our rightard chums watch news/political programs? no wonder they have no idea.

mellie wrote on Aug 2^nd, 2010 at 5:00pm:

Dsmithy70 wrote on Aug 2nd, 2010 at 4:49pm: mellie wrote on Aug 2nd, 2010 at 4:37pm: It's still too early to call... And rather than engage in Labors poll-driven campaign politics, and vapour trail policies, I'd like to see her doing something more interesting than posing seductively in a Woman's Weekly magazine. This woman is supposed to be our PM, and when I saw her on the front cover of the Woman's Weekly, she came off as more 'celebrity', not someone we should be taking seriously. Would be great if Gillard would accept Tony Abbotts invitation to more live public debates. :) Want to be careful there millie or you'll get skewered as Ackerman did on Insiders yesterday. All p!ss & wind about Julia in Women's Weekly & how it is poor form & she shouldn't do it & how Tony doesn't, When low & behold it's revealed Tony's on the cover with a 7 page spread inside of the next edition of Men's Health PLUS he & his family featured in Womens Weekly 2 months ago. Here's the link watch it is bloody funny. http://www.abc.net.au/insiders/ scroll down to Gillards magazine spread attracts attention I wasn't able to read the article,(due to it not linking to where you said it did) ... now rather than pissing in the wind, with innuendo, how about you demonstrate some real class and put the link up here yourself to something real. 8-)....

I don't know what your problem is, I clicked on the link I provided & it went straight to the insiders home page all you then have to do is scroll down through the stories right next to the couches.
If your having trouble with the link google insiders & you'll get there.
I would have posted video but they don't give you an embed code.
Ps its a video not an article, that maybe your problem your looking for text not images :D

mellie wrote on Aug 2^nd, 2010 at 4:37pm:

Would be great if Gillard would accept Tony Abbotts invitation to more live public debates. :)

Oh dear millie, she did offer and according to reports Tony's not interested

Dsmithy70 wrote on Aug 2^nd, 2010 at 10:31pm:

mellie wrote on Aug 2nd, 2010 at 4:37pm: Would be great if Gillard would accept Tony Abbotts invitation to more live public debates. :) Oh dear millie, she did offer and according to reports Tony's not interested

Abbott was happy to take her up on another 2 debates, however she declined...when he was the underdog if you recall?

Short memory?

:)

Now she's down and out and wants to make a comeback and expects Tony to work his campaign around her chaos?

Would she do this for him?

8-) I sincerely doubt it...she plays dirty.

Look, he offered, she declined, now she's trying to get him into the Channel 7 studio on her own terms, I wouldn't do it either.

She made her bed...  besides, we cant afford her to spend even money flogging a dead horse.

Someone should freeze our assets, she's lost the plot.

Tony's made the right decision, under these circumstance, now she's trying to call the shots in his party too, I wouldn't do it either.

:)

mellie wrote on Aug 2^nd, 2010 at 11:44pm:

Dsmithy70 wrote on Aug 2nd, 2010 at 10:31pm: mellie wrote on Aug 2nd, 2010 at 4:37pm: Would be great if Gillard would accept Tony Abbotts invitation to more live public debates. :) Oh dear millie, she did offer and according to reports Tony's not interested Abbott was happy to take her up on another 2 debates, however she declined...when he was the underdog if you recall? Short memory? :)

Hey its the laborite way, to forget everything before and only listen to what gilliard tells you in the past 5 minutes!
Not just short memeory but selective memory as well.


Wonder when gilliard will start spruiking to everyone about her record 6 consecutive interest rate rises in 9 months!
You know, and remember just like at the last election how she was spruiking about Howards 6 rises over 18 months - well rudd/gilliard beat that didn't they!

I remember watching a show years agoi I think it was called "Tell the Truth" 3/4 contestants would answer questions on a particular subject and only one of them would be telling the truth, the panel was expected to pick the truthful one out..

here we have a potential PM admitting the person you have been watching isnt the real person!!!!

have you ever heard of anyone admitting to faking their persona pre election before??... in all your life!!

I am shocked that she has come out and said what you see aint what you will get...

most of us know we have been taken for a ride with this govt from day one..but this is remarkable.


so will the real jules stand up?>... I doubt it!

mellie wrote on Aug 2^nd, 2010 at 11:44pm:

Dsmithy70 wrote on Aug 2nd, 2010 at 10:31pm: mellie wrote on Aug 2nd, 2010 at 4:37pm: Would be great if Gillard would accept Tony Abbotts invitation to more live public debates. :) Oh dear millie, she did offer and according to reports Tony's not interested Abbott was happy to take her up on another 2 debates, however she declined...when he was the underdog if you recall? Short memory? :) Now she's down and out and wants to make a comeback and expects Tony to work his campaign around her chaos? Would she do this for him? 8-) I sincerely doubt it...she plays dirty. Look, he offered, she declined, now she's trying to get him into the Channel 7 studio on her own terms, I wouldn't do it either. She made her bed...  besides, we cant afford her to spend even money flogging a dead horse. Someone should freeze our assets, she's lost the plot. Tony's made the right decision, under these circumstance, now she's trying to call the shots in his party too, I wouldn't do it either. :)

Yeah but Mellie you only wrote that you wished she'd offer him the debates at 4.30pm yesterday then at 10.30pm suddenly they are a Labor plot.
Somehow I don't think Gillard became the underdog in those 6 hours.
I do agree though at this stage Tony shouldn't have the debate especially seeing it was to be on the economy which as we know is not his strong suit. ;)

Dsmithy70 wrote on Aug 3^rd, 2010 at 8:23am:

mellie wrote on Aug 2nd, 2010 at 11:44pm: Dsmithy70 wrote on Aug 2nd, 2010 at 10:31pm: mellie wrote on Aug 2nd, 2010 at 4:37pm: Would be great if Gillard would accept Tony Abbotts invitation to more live public debates. :) Oh dear millie, she did offer and according to reports Tony's not interested Abbott was happy to take her up on another 2 debates, however she declined...when he was the underdog if you recall? Short memory? :) Now she's down and out and wants to make a comeback and expects Tony to work his campaign around her chaos? Would she do this for him? 8-) I sincerely doubt it...she plays dirty. Look, he offered, she declined, now she's trying to get him into the Channel 7 studio on her own terms, I wouldn't do it either. She made her bed...  besides, we cant afford her to spend even money flogging a dead horse. Someone should freeze our assets, she's lost the plot. Tony's made the right decision, under these circumstance, now she's trying to call the shots in his party too, I wouldn't do it either. :) Yeah but Mellie you only wrote that you wished she'd offer him the debates at 4.30pm yesterday then at 10.30pm suddenly they are a Labor plot. Somehow I don't think Gillard became the underdog in those 6 hours. I do agree though at this stage Tony shouldn't have the debate especially seeing it was to be on the economy which as we know is not his strong suit. ;)

Smithy i very much doubt it's either of their strong points, in fact throw BB in there are ALL three would really battle with the issue.

:)

Quote:

Yeah but Mellie you only wrote that you wished she'd offer him the debates at 4.30pm yesterday then at 10.30pm suddenly they are a Labor plot

Ha hahahahahahahaha, he;s gotcha there madone.

I have to agree with Iamabogan though, Gillard and Abbott are both shocking at debate, and I'll admit I dont think Brown would fair much better.

Did anyone else expect the Coalition to accept a debate on the day of their campaign launch.

Looking at the Greens one it looks like a hell of a party.  Who is going to leave that to go to Melbourne to enter into a debate?

Gillard knew he wouldnt accept, and thats why she offered.

Verge wrote on Aug 3^rd, 2010 at 8:47am:

Did anyone else expect the Coalition to accept a debate on the day of their campaign launch. Looking at the Greens one it looks like a hell of a party.  Who is going to leave that to go to Melbourne to enter into a debate? Gillard knew he wouldnt accept, and thats why she offered.

It was a pretty lame attempt by Gillard and sure to backfire. I dont know who her campaign managers are, but she should fire them. all she has done so far is stunts and transparent lies. Ive rarely seen a worse labor campaign.

longweekend58 wrote on Aug 3^rd, 2010 at 3:52pm:

Verge wrote on Aug 3rd, 2010 at 8:47am: Did anyone else expect the Coalition to accept a debate on the day of their campaign launch. Looking at the Greens one it looks like a hell of a party.  Who is going to leave that to go to Melbourne to enter into a debate? Gillard knew he wouldnt accept, and thats why she offered. It was a pretty lame attempt by Gillard and sure to backfire. I dont know who her campaign managers are, but she should fire them. all she has done so far is stunts and transparent lies. Ive rarely seen a worse labor campaign.

Have you got those polls from the twenty plus seats you reckon Labor are going to lose yet ? I'm intereseted to go through them with you. I've looked on Antony Greens site and he doesn't seem to have the same access you must have as he has no individual seats that have been polled, you obviously have seeing as though you said there were over twenty seats over five states that they would lose.
Please share them with us.

longweekend58 wrote on Aug 3^rd, 2010 at 3:52pm:

Verge wrote on Aug 3rd, 2010 at 8:47am: Did anyone else expect the Coalition to accept a debate on the day of their campaign launch. Looking at the Greens one it looks like a hell of a party.  Who is going to leave that to go to Melbourne to enter into a debate? Gillard knew he wouldnt accept, and thats why she offered. It was a pretty lame attempt by Gillard and sure to backfire. I dont know who her campaign managers are, but she should fire them. all she has done so far is stunts and transparent lies. Ive rarely seen a worse labor campaign.

Totally argee with that one Longy.
As posted on another forum, she needs to f*ck the 30 something no-nothings off & get Richo on the job.
If she cant win this week as far as electioneering goes I think Labor have lost.

Quote:

.................Thanks for voting! Which party will get your first preference? Labor 13.9% (4986 votes) Liberal 66.7% (23931 votes) National 4.88% (1750 votes) Greens 6.52% (2340 votes) Independent or some other party 3.77% (1351 votes) None of them 4.23% (1519 votes) Total votes: 35877 ..............

http://www.couriermail.com.au/news/national/election

thanks for coming, looney lying lazy lelfty losers.

Sprintcyclist wrote on Aug 3^rd, 2010 at 11:37pm:

Quote: .................Thanks for voting! Which party will get your first preference? Labor 13.9% (4986 votes) Liberal 66.7% (23931 votes) National 4.88% (1750 votes) Greens 6.52% (2340 votes) Independent or some other party 3.77% (1351 votes) None of them 4.23% (1519 votes) Total votes: 35877 .............. http://www.couriermail.com.au/news/national/election thanks for coming, looney lying lazy lelfty losers.

WOW :D

No wonder the polls have been quiet on the idiot box today....before now they were televising the Polls on the hour every hour when Gillard was on her honeymoon.

Now that Tony's winning.....   It's SILENCE!

8-)

mellie wrote on Aug 3^rd, 2010 at 11:40pm:

No wonder the polls have been quiet on the idiot box today....before now they were televising the Polls on the hour every hour when Gillard was on her honeymoon. Now that Tony's winning.....   It's SILENCE! 8-)

Now if only the laborites would remain silent instead of their childish ranting, bleating and parroting. It's like Old McDonalds farm with the laborites around hear, all screaming for the kids meal and look little johnny got a red toy and now they all want one!

Seriously the laborites around here need subtitles for Marcel Marceau!

:D ;D :D ;D :D

lil.brat26 wrote on Aug 4^th, 2010 at 5:50am:

mellie wrote on Aug 3rd, 2010 at 11:40pm: No wonder the polls have been quiet on the idiot box today....before now they were televising the Polls on the hour every hour when Gillard was on her honeymoon. Now that Tony's winning.....   It's SILENCE! 8-) Now if only the laborites would remain silent instead of their childish ranting, bleating and parroting. It's like Old McDonalds farm with the laborites around hear, all screaming for the kids meal and look little johnny got a red toy and now they all want one! Seriously the laborites around here need subtitles for Marcel Marceau! :D ;D :D ;D :D

Still some odd things going on in the polls which give me pause. SA is showing a very high labor vote at the peak of Rudds polls yet only 4 months ago labor took a pasting in the election and only just snuck across the line with a 8% swing against it. i still think that the polls at this election are very unreliable. there are all over the place and showing contradictory results time and time again.

Another nail in the coffin .......




Quote:

LABOR could lose enough seats in NSW and Queensland alone to be turned out of office or left relying on independent MPs. The Coalition has raced far ahead in those states since the election campaign began. With a strong "state of origin" factor at work, Kevin Rudd's home state of Queensland has lurched towards the Coalition since he was removed, Tony Abbott's home state of NSW has boosted the Coalition ahead of Labor for the first time since the last election and Julia Gillard's two home states -- South Australia and Victoria -- have lifted Labor back to the highs of the Rudd government. Older voters have turned to the Coalition, as have those outside capital cities, while Labor's support among 35- to 49-year-olds lifted sharply. Women have increased their support for both sides, east coast voters have turned on Labor, leaving their primary vote equally split, but the Coalition has an eight-point lead among men. The Opposition Leader has closed the gap on preferred prime minister that Mr Rudd had held in Queensland, cutting the 13-point gap to just four percentage points with the new Prime Minister........

Gggwwwwwwrrrrrrrrrrrrrnnnnnnnnnnnneeeeeeeeeeeeeeeee

Labor could, Libs could.

Watch the betting markets, Libs widening again.

Quote:

Corinne Grant corinne_grant    Abbott makes ‘no means no’ rape joke at Gillard’s expense then refuses 2 apologise. Let’s hope he finds out what ‘no’ means on election day. about 7 hours ago via web Retweeted by you and 100+ others

Sprintcyclist wrote on Aug 4^th, 2010 at 11:12am:

Another nail in the coffin ....... Quote: LABOR could lose enough seats in NSW and Queensland alone to be turned out of office or left relying on independent MPs. The Coalition has raced far ahead in those states since the election campaign began. With a strong "state of origin" factor at work, Kevin Rudd's home state of Queensland has lurched towards the Coalition since he was removed, Tony Abbott's home state of NSW has boosted the Coalition ahead of Labor for the first time since the last election and Julia Gillard's two home states -- South Australia and Victoria -- have lifted Labor back to the highs of the Rudd government. Older voters have turned to the Coalition, as have those outside capital cities, while Labor's support among 35- to 49-year-olds lifted sharply. Women have increased their support for both sides, east coast voters have turned on Labor, leaving their primary vote equally split, but the Coalition has an eight-point lead among men. The Opposition Leader has closed the gap on preferred prime minister that Mr Rudd had held in Queensland, cutting the 13-point gap to just four percentage points with the new Prime Minister........ Gggwwwwwwrrrrrrrrrrrrrnnnnnnnnnnnneeeeeeeeeeeeeeeee

sounds like the swing is on but I am still doubting the accuracy of the polls.

Darwin wrote on Aug 4^th, 2010 at 11:17am:

Quote:    Corinne Grant corinne_grant    Abbott makes ‘no means no’ rape joke at Gillard’s expense then refuses 2 apologise. Let’s hope he finds out what ‘no’ means on election day. about 7 hours ago via web Retweeted by you and 100+ others

that was the weakest 'non-issue' of the election so far!

It wouldn't surprise me if the ALP lose a lot of seats in Queensland as a result of the Anna Bligh effect. She's the first Queensland State Premier for years where we have consensus from just about everybody. They (almost) all hate her :)

The LNP are pushing this association of Bligh and Gillard very hard at the moment in TV ads.

luke weyland of Strathfield Posted at 9:52 AM Today
I hope Labor gets 74, greens 2, independants 3 the other mob 71


http://www.theaustralian.com.au/national-affairs/qld-nsw-voters-turn-on-labor/story-fn59niix-1225900833000




Now THAT would be an interesting scenario

Yes A GREENS Labor coalition would be more than fun. ;D

buzzanddidj wrote on Aug 4^th, 2010 at 2:03pm:

luke weyland of Strathfield Posted at 9:52 AM Today I hope Labor gets 74, greens 2, independants 3 the other mob 71 http://www.theaustralian.com.au/national-affairs/qld-nsw-voters-turn-on-labor/story-fn59niix-1225900833000 Now THAT would be an interesting scenario

The most interesting thing abtou that is the rather dubious claim that labors PRIMARY vote has risen 12% in SA. i find that utterly implausible. if it is in fact true and the only reason for it is that Gillard comes from SA then I might change my opinion on 'votes for all'. if place of birth is the primary motivator for vast numbers of people then these same people should be denied the vote.  But I flatly refuse to believe labor could get a truly massive and unprecedented swing just 4 months after state labor was thrashed with an 8% swing against it.

The more I see of polls in this election, the less I believe them. the swings are massive and in opposite directions all the time. there is no consistency that leads me to believe that the polls have any idea. a mere 2 weeks out from the election you would expect polls to be close to predicting the result but not this time. it is just insane!

Looks like Labor will pick up Sturt and Boothby, 2 in WA and at least two in Vic. Qld looking better for Labor. Labor look like winning the election and betting money is saying that as well. Labor may lose some seats overall but not too many.

And Labor will just get stronger and stronger, even without the gift of the sneaky tobacco ploy. Economy is performing like a trooper and this is an election about the economy. Julia is looking good too!

Darwin wrote on Aug 4^th, 2010 at 2:16pm:

Looks like Labor will pick up Sturt and Boothby, 2 in WA and at least two in Vic. Qld looking better for Labor. Labor look like winning the election and betting money is saying that as well. Labor may lose some seats overall but not too many. And Labor will just get stronger and stronger, even without the gift of the sneaky tobacco ploy. Economy is performing like a trooper and this is an election about the economy. Julia is looking good too!

You sound like a bigger moron than most of the one-eyed idiots on here. winning a seat in WA??? dream on idiot boy.

No need for name calling. We will see soon enough.

Darwin wrote on Aug 4^th, 2010 at 2:16pm:

Looks like Labor will pick up Sturt and Boothby, 2 in WA and at least two in Vic. Qld looking better for Labor. Labor look like winning the election and betting money is saying that as well. Labor may lose some seats overall but not too many. And Labor will just get stronger and stronger, even without the gift of the sneaky tobacco ploy. Economy is performing like a trooper and this is an election about the economy. Julia is looking good too!

Wow, the electorate has already voted and now they're counting the votes!

Quote:

LABOR has failed to make up any significant ground on the Coalition in new polling and is still trailing as the campaign enters its last fortnight. The Nielsen poll in Fairfax newspapers shows the opposition leading Labor by 51 per cent to 49 per cent on a two-party preferred basis. This follows last week's shock result which had Labor trailing the Coalition 48 per cent to 52 per cent. While the Coalition's two-party lead is down one point, this is not considered statistically significant. Labor's primary vote remains steady at 36 per cent, the Coalition is down one point to 44 per cent and the Greens are polling 13 per cent - up one point on last week's Nielsen results. Tony Abbott said despite today's poll, he had a tough battle ahead. “I've got a huge job ahead of me,” he said. “We are up against an incumbent Labor government... five state Labor governments and the union movement, which is a $1 billion a year political campaigning arm of the Labor party.”..........

http://www.theaustralian.com.au/national-affairs/alp-barely-dents-coalition-poll-lead-and-still-trails-two-weeks-from-election/story-fn59niix-1225902373146

Sprintcyclist wrote on Aug 7^th, 2010 at 7:41pm:

Quote: LABOR has failed to make up any significant ground on the Coalition in new polling and is still trailing as the campaign enters its last fortnight. The Nielsen poll in Fairfax newspapers shows the opposition leading Labor by 51 per cent to 49 per cent on a two-party preferred basis. This follows last week's shock result which had Labor trailing the Coalition 48 per cent to 52 per cent. While the Coalition's two-party lead is down one point, this is not considered statistically significant. Labor's primary vote remains steady at 36 per cent, the Coalition is down one point to 44 per cent and the Greens are polling 13 per cent - up one point on last week's Nielsen results. Tony Abbott said despite today's poll, he had a tough battle ahead. “I've got a huge job ahead of me,” he said. “We are up against an incumbent Labor government... five state Labor governments and the union movement, which is a $1 billion a year political campaigning arm of the Labor party.”.......... http://www.theaustralian.com.au/national-affairs/alp-barely-dents-coalition-poll-lead-and-still-trails-two-weeks-from-election/story-fn59niix-1225902373146

Crikey, $1Billion, eh!?

That'd represent a lot of democratic support - apparently the Howardian Libs failed in their concerted attempts at crushing the Workers Unions...

Big fail!

Equitist wrote on Aug 7^th, 2010 at 7:50pm:

apparently the Howardian Libs failed in their concerted attempts at crushing the Workers Unions... Big fail!

The crushing of the unions was self inflicted as their relevance to workers evaporated.


This graph from the ABS shows you the collapse in union membership began during the Hawke Government.


http://www.abs.gov.au/AUSSTATS/abs@.nsf/be4aa82cd8cf7f07ca2570d60018da27/647871717765d28cca2573cc000f3f3b/Body/0.9E0!OpenElement&FieldElemFormat=gif

Rudd has now been quite vocal and today very visual in support of Gillard.  A pivotal moment here in Queensland.

Of course it is also very nice to see that good old Malcolm Frazer is knifing the LNP.

I just cannot accept that on the 22nd Ausgust, 2010, Australians will have voted for Abott as Prime Minister.  It would make us a World 'joke.'

Now, if they had Turnbull, or even Nelson........... (knives in the back, anyone?) at the helm, Gillard would be in far more serious trouble.

While Abbot leads the LNP, Labor is laughing all the way.

Abbot is seen as a sleeze.

;)

mod - the polls have judas gillrudd behind.

This has been the case for some time now .. so it seems Julia is set to lose this election. Fact!

Sprintcyclist wrote on Aug 7^th, 2010 at 9:17pm:

mod - the polls have judas gillrudd behind.

Who cares?  No one I talk to out here in the real World.

On the 21st August, 2010, when the punters really make their choice, they will not vote for the bloke who decided to let the World know how small his free willy really is.

:)

This just in ...

The rotten core poisoning Labor

Piers Akerman
Saturday, August 07, 2010 at 06:33pm


SIX weeks ago Kevin Rudd was a Labor rat who had to be publicly exterminated and Julia Gillard was the party’s saviour, a saint in the making.

Today, the former prime minister is the hope of the ALP and Gillard is an embarrassment looking for a hole to hide in.

If you’re confused by Labor’s campaign strategy, you’re in good company. The ALP’s election campaign is being run by a “detested caste of ruthless, robotic machine men”.

Don’t take my word for it. That sentiment was expressed by John Della Bosca, a former secretary of the NSW Labor Party, former MLC and former minister for health, education, finance and industrial relations, writing in The Daily Telegraph yesterday.

“Della” is telling it like it is because he has walked away from the shameful disgrace that now calls itself Labor. Some other veterans have not been so lucky.

“Just four days ago, the current federal Education Minister Simon Crean was heroically mouthing the Labor Party line and mocking journalists for their preoccupation with the former prime minister.

Continued questioning about the former prime minister during the election campaign was a “trivial pursuit”, Crean told them at a Melbourne briefing last Wednesday.

“Are we seriously still on this subject?” he asked.

“Can’t you let go what happened some five weeks ago?”

To answer his question: No. Why should the media “let go” when the Labor Party not only cannot let Rudd disappear as it once hoped, but has been forced to resurrect him in a bid to shore-up its flagging election prospects?

Operating outside the party structure, away from the “detested caste of ruthless robotic machine men” who first brought him to power and then assassinated him during his first term as prime minister, Rudd managed to fight a damaging rear guard action which saw Gillard forced into humiliating capitulation.

Though neither she nor Crean or any other senior members of her new team admitted speaking to Rudd, the same ruthless machine men have now found they desperately need to embrace the former prime minister.

These are the people who just a few weeks ago were busily leaking against Rudd in what was undoubtedly the most vicious character assassination ever launched against a recent party leader.

Mod. wrote on Aug 7^th, 2010 at 9:14pm:

While Abbot leads the LNP, Labor is laughing all the way. Abbot is seen as a sleeze. ;)

I'm afraid your opinion seems to be yours alone.




Quote:

Online readers back Tony Abbott in poll PRIME Minister Julia Gillard is a sneaky, calculating schemer while Opposition Leader Tony Abbott is an intelligent, determined man driven by passion, according to an online poll

Continued ..

n a total repudiation of the plot and the plotters, Rudd - who was so easily toppled because of his lack of friends within the parliamentary Labor Party and among the union bosses pulling the factional strings - is now dictating terms to Gillard because he is popularly perceived to be a more authoritative figure than the woman who deposed him.

The bad news for Gillard and Crean is that the public still has not been told where Rudd stands on all of the policies Gillard rushed to deny, the big new super tax on mining, climate change “the greatest moral challenge”, border protection and boat people.

Labor’s faceless men decided Rudd had to go or it faced defeat. He has found sympathy but no one is standing up for his leadership.

Having handed him a red card and told the public that the Rudd Labor government had lost its way, Gillard has to tell us why she recalled him to the field and is now asking him for directions.

Those robotic machine men need to conduct more focus groups to determine who should be given the better position at Labor’s campaign launch, Rudd or the woman who hustled him out of the Lodge.

In the real world beyond Labor politics, Gillard has been caught out over her wasteful BER program.

The interim report offered up by her hand-picked adviser Brad Orgill is a transparent joke.

As Orgill has admitted: “I say there was no waste. As an economist there was no waste because the cost of not doing this would have been much higher unemployment.”

Orgill may be an economist but he has been used as a political apologist, just as Gillard has used business leaders Rod Eddington and Don Argus to provide cover for her damaging forays into the economy.

A brief examination of the BER fiasco shows that the union movement has claimed the wasteful spending spree saved or created 200,000 jobs.

Gillard has put the figure at 350,000 and Crean at 450,000.

The Bureau of Statistics figures for August, 2008, show 989,500 people were employed in construction. In May, 2010, that figure was 1,006,700 - an increase of 17,000.

According to figures revealed during Senate estimates on June 3, the BER had swallowed $7.8 billion as at May 7, 2010, which would cost each new job at $453,488.37.

That is a conservative estimate based on the assumption that every new job in the construction industry, including those in the mining sector, were created by the BER spending.

As the Orgill report makes clear, hundreds of millions have been wasted through inflated charges, mismanagement and a lack of value for money but Gillard says she would throw the same amount of money away if the same situation arose again. Not a single lesson has been learnt from the BER experience.

Opposition leader Tony Abbott will today outline the Liberal Party’s election platform and draw attention to the marked differences between the Coalition and Labor on the ballooning national debt, ending waste, raising taxes and stopping illegal boat arrivals.

There will be no big new promises beyond a return to the security and certainty that led to the prosperity of the Howard-Costello years.

He will discuss his priorities should the Coalition persuade voters to give it their trust in a fortnight.

While the polls give the Coalition a slender margin for a second week, the voters still believe Labor will be returned on August 21 and, most worrying of all, the polls show the Greens would hold the balance of power in the Senate.

It seems unlikely Labor will be able to resolve its farcical leadership issues before the end of the current election campaign.

That “trivial” matter will still influence voters, as it should, when they go to vote.

The perceived wisdom has been turned on its head. The preconception that Labor had the best campaign management and leadership while the Coalition was handicapped in both areas has been shown to be false.

Della Bosca should be thanked for exposing Labor’s rotten core.  

"That's amazing."

You can talk him up as much as you like, but I am here to tell you that Abbot is seen out here as a 'sleeze.'

Fact.

Mod. wrote on Aug 7^th, 2010 at 9:31pm:

"That's amazing." You can talk him up as much as you like, but I am here to tell you that Abbot is seen out here as a 'sleeze.' Fact.

And what else did Mr Gillard say?

Bottom line ..

We're going to see a very close election result in 2 weeks .. this is now a fait accompli.

I believe Abbott could very well win the election.

You are confusing fact with the opinions of qld derros that use taxis. Not exactly representative, is it   ::)

deepthought wrote on Aug 7^th, 2010 at 9:33pm:

Mod. wrote on Aug 7th, 2010 at 9:31pm: "That's amazing." You can talk him up as much as you like, but I am here to tell you that Abbot is seen out here as a 'sleeze.' Fact. And what else did Mr Gillard say?

I don't know.  What are you referring to?

I do wish that when one calls people names, one would spell them correctly -  however Mr Abbott is anything BUT a sleaze.  


Main Entry: sleaze
Pronunciation: \ˈslēz also ˈslāz\
Function: noun
Etymology: back-formation from sleazy
Date: 1954
1 : sleazy quality, appearance, or behavior; also : sleazy material
2 : a sleazy person

Cyberman wrote on Aug 7^th, 2010 at 9:37pm:

You are confusing fact with the opinions of qld derros that use taxis. Not exactly representative, is it   ::)

Odd comment.  Wierd even.

Cyberman, can you please point to the facts which destroy the doing-the-rounds conclusion that Abbott is a sleaze?

Mod. wrote on Aug 7^th, 2010 at 9:42pm:

deepthought wrote on Aug 7th, 2010 at 9:33pm: Mod. wrote on Aug 7th, 2010 at 9:31pm: "That's amazing." You can talk him up as much as you like, but I am here to tell you that Abbot is seen out here as a 'sleeze.' Fact. And what else did Mr Gillard say? I don't know.  What are you referring to?

As the majority of people believe Jules to be the 'sleaze' (well, 'sneaky, calculating schemer' actually) I'm guessing you have been talking to Jules's Dad to hear otherwise?

Never spoken to the Dude.  So, there goes that proposition right out the window, 'ey wot, DT.

;D

.. sighs ..

You know .. it's a pity this topic has become a cyber version of Romper Room. I thought we were going to share latest trends/information/poll results etc.

Silly me eh :(

Lisa Jones wrote on Aug 7^th, 2010 at 9:56pm:

.. sighs .. You know .. it's a pity this topic has become a cyber version of Romper Room. I thought we were going to share latest trends/information/poll results etc. Silly me eh :(

Or Lisa does Newspoll, even!?

::)

Lisa Jones wrote on Aug 7^th, 2010 at 9:56pm:

.. sighs .. You know .. it's a pity this topic has become a cyber version of Romper Room. I thought we were going to share latest trends/information/poll results etc. Silly me eh :(

Feel free to post up the latest trends/information/poll results etc.

While we're waiting do you mind if we chat amongst ourselves?

Mod. wrote on Aug 7^th, 2010 at 9:55pm:

Never spoken to the Dude.  So, there goes that proposition right out the window, 'ey wot, DT. ;D

Errrr, Aussie, it was tongue in cheek old son.

George wrote on Aug 7^th, 2010 at 9:47pm:

I do wish that when one calls people names, one would spell them correctly -  however Mr Abbott is anything BUT a sleaze.   Main Entry: sleaze Pronunciation: \ˈslēz also ˈslāz\ Function: noun Etymology: back-formation from sleazy Date: 1954 1 : sleazy quality, appearance, or behavior; also : sleazy material 2 : a sleazy person

Actually, from what I've seen, Abbott is somewhat of a sleaze...

He's been called everything from a bigot, to a chauvanist, to a mysoginist - all of which are apt descriptions...

Oh, and he's still learning to keep his hands to himself...

I did share the latest version about Abbott.  It seems you disagree with the suggestion that he is regarded in the electorate as  a 'sleaze.'

Lisa, there is an embedded image of Abbott, one that no-one in their right mind would want to see as descriptive or typical of the Prime Minister of Australia.

Sleaze.

;)

Mod. wrote on Aug 7^th, 2010 at 9:48pm:

Cyberman wrote on Aug 7th, 2010 at 9:37pm: You are confusing fact with the opinions of qld derros that use taxis. Not exactly representative, is it   ::) Odd comment.  Wierd even. Cyberman, can you please point to the facts which destroy the doing-the-rounds conclusion that Abbott is a sleaze?

You need to prove your so called fact, until then it is a lie. Try not to call your drivel "fact" unless you can point to verified sources. It will stop you being perceived, and rightly so, as a liar

Quote:

You need to prove your so called fact, until then it is a lie. Try not to call your drivel "fact" unless you can point to verified sources. It will stop you being perceived, and rightly so, as a liar

Oh dear.

Go back and read.......

I never mentioned 'fact,' but you did.  I referred to "conclusions."

Go on, go back and read.

:)

deepthought wrote on Aug 7^th, 2010 at 10:00pm:

Lisa Jones wrote on Aug 7th, 2010 at 9:56pm: .. sighs .. You know .. it's a pity this topic has become a cyber version of Romper Room. I thought we were going to share latest trends/information/poll results etc. Silly me eh :( Feel free to post up the latest trends/information/poll results etc. While we're waiting do you mind if we chat amongst ourselves?

LOL .. as it so happens ..  I was just gathering some factual information here .. smirk :P

Anyone else kicking back tonight and relaxing with a fine port lol ??

Quote:

"That's amazing." You can talk him up as much as you like, but I am here to tell you that Abbot is seen out here as a 'sleeze.' Fact.

So you didn't post this? How strange.

Perhaps you should go back and reread what you wrote. It seems you have already forgotten

Quote:

I was just gathering some factual information here ..

Look forward to you posting it.

Take notes so you can understand what a fact is

More latest online poll results ..

http://www.dailytelegraph.com.au/election


Question 1

If the Federal Election was held today, which party would receive your first preference?

   * Labor 14.03% (4803 votes)

   * Liberal 73.1% (25014 votes)

   * National 3.02% (1033 votes)

   * Green 4.32% (1479 votes)

   * Independent/Other 2.21% (757 votes)

   * None of them 3.32% (1135 votes)


Total votes: 34221



Question 2

Who would you rather have as PM?

   * Julia Gillard 16.07% (1719 votes)

   * Tony Abbott 83.93% (8980 votes)

Total votes: 10699

Lisa Jones wrote on Aug 7^th, 2010 at 10:21pm:

More latest online poll results .. http://www.dailytelegraph.com.au/election Question 1 If the Federal Election was held today, which party would receive your first preference?    * Labor 14.03% (4803 votes)    * Liberal 73.1% (25014 votes)    * National 3.02% (1033 votes)    * Green 4.32% (1479 votes)    * Independent/Other 2.21% (757 votes)    * None of them 3.32% (1135 votes) Total votes: 34221 Question 2 Who would you rather have as PM?    * Julia Gillard 16.07% (1719 votes)    * Tony Abbott 83.93% (8980 votes) Total votes: 10699

LOL...if the actual 2010 election result comes anywhere near close to that self-selected poll, then I'll eat a telegraph daily...

What will you do, Lisa et al, if the Labs win?



PS Won't the Nats be pleased, that the Greens even outpoll them on such a patently partisan news site!?

Despite what we might say on this forum re who looks sleazy/sneaky/snotty/sloppy etc .. the election result will be a close one.

That is a fact.

Right now .. I believe Abbott can win this election.

An "objective" aside ...

The problem for Labor is that they LOOK confused, disorganised and internally conflicted as a party in terms of leadership AND THUS policy direction.

That is the image they have projected/are projecting and it's like sh  it that sticks to your shoe .. it isn't easy to get rid of.

Piers Akerman stated this evening:

It seems unlikely Labor will be able to resolve its farcical leadership issues before the end of the current election campaign.

That “trivial” matter will still influence voters, as it should, when they go to vote.

The perceived wisdom has been turned on its head. The preconception that Labor had the best campaign management and leadership while the Coalition was handicapped in both areas has been shown to be false.


Meantime ..

Anyone else here (from any side of politics) notice how Abbott is pitching for the senior vote?? Clever man .. he knows what he's doing .. his policy/pledges are speaking to the baby boomer phenomenon in Oz.

Someone should have told Gillard that over 50% of those who will vote in this election will be over 50 yrs old.

Bottom line as I see it??

The election will be close .. and right now I believe Abbott can win it.

Herald Sun
August 08, 2010 10:40AM

TONY Abbott has set out an "action plan" for his first 90 days in power as a poll shows Australians are still unconvinced he's ready to be PM.

Today's exclusive Galaxy Poll for the Herald Sun shows 48 per cent of voters think Mr Abbott is not ready to govern (43 per cent think he is).

The survey of 1014 voters over the past three days put Labor ahead of the Coalition 51 per cent to 49 per cent.


http://www.heraldsun.com.au/news/special-reports/live-liberals-campaign-launch/story-fn5ko0pw-1225902608356


It WILL, be VERY close

Lisa Jones wrote on Aug 7^th, 2010 at 10:21pm:

More latest online poll results .. http://www.dailytelegraph.com.au/election Question 1 If the Federal Election was held today, which party would receive your first preference?    * Labor 14.03% (4803 votes)    * Liberal 73.1% (25014 votes)    * National 3.02% (1033 votes)    * Green 4.32% (1479 votes)    * Independent/Other 2.21% (757 votes)    * None of them 3.32% (1135 votes) Total votes: 34221 Question 2 Who would you rather have as PM?    * Julia Gillard 16.07% (1719 votes)    * Tony Abbott 83.93% (8980 votes) Total votes: 10699

I would have thought that someone who says they studied political science would understand that online polls are about as acurate as asking John Howard who should win the next election.
Here are todays REAL polls and Labor seems to be back in the hunt. Interestingly, it includes a News Lmd poll, but a proper poll, not an online poll that can be manipulated by how many times people vote.


Quote:

Opposition Leader Tony Abbott has played down the latest opinion polls showing Labor clawing its way back to a narrow lead over the coalition. The latest Newspoll shows Labor has regained a narrow lead, while a Galaxy poll shows a similar result. Labor has taken a four point lead - 52-48 per cent - on the two-party vote in the Newspoll, published in The Australian, up from a split 50-50 result last week.The Galaxy poll, published in News Ltd newspapers, shows Labor on a similar lead - 51 to 49 per cent.

Quote:

Newspoll boss Martin O’Shannessy cautioned against reading too much into the latest result, describing the shift to Labor as a ‘‘very minor change’’ and not statistically different from the previous week’s poll.

Cyberman wrote on Aug 9^th, 2010 at 10:09am:

Quote: Newspoll boss Martin O’Shannessy cautioned against reading too much into the latest result, describing the shift to Labor as a ‘‘very minor change’’ and not statistically different from the previous week’s poll.

Except the previous week Labor were behind,LOL LOL LOL LOL, You're such a doonkoff.

http://www.smh.com.au/federal-election/libs-may-win-with-fewer-votes-20100808-11qfn.html

Quote:

Libs may win with fewer votes THE Coalition is on track to reap big swings in the crucial states of NSW and Queensland, which would return it to power even if Labor won most votes, the Age/Nielsen poll reveals. A state breakdown of three polls taken since the campaign began shows that while Labor averaged a 51-49 lead nationally, the biggest swings against it are in two states where it has two-thirds of its marginal seats. If one assumes a uniform swing within each state, the Coalition is on track to win back government on Saturday week, with a small majority in its own right. It would have a larger majority if Australians vote on August 21 as they have in the past two polls. Both found the Coalition with an election-winning lead, nationally and in two of the three largest states. The three polls, which surveyed 4073 people between July 20 and August 5, found no swing to either side in Victoria. In this state, voters at this stage appear set to repeat the 2007 outcome. But the polls reveal: ■ A 3 per cent swing to the Coalition in NSW, which on a uniform swing would give it seven gains: Robertson (where it needs a swing of just 0.1 per cent), Macquarie (0.3), Gilmore (0.4), Macarthur (0.5), the battle of the stars in Bennelong (1.4), the litmus seat of Eden-Monaro (2.3) and Page (2.4). ■ A swing of more than 4 per cent to the Coalition in Queensland, costing Labor up to nine seats: Herbert (0.0), Dickson (0.8), Longman (1.9), Flynn (2.2), Dawson (2.6), Forde (3.4) and possibly Leichhardt (4.1), Petrie (4.2) and Bonner (4.5). ■ A 2 per cent swing in Western Australia, which could give the Coalition two more seats: Swan (0.3) and Hasluck (0.9). ■ A 1 per cent swing in South Australia and the Northern Territory, which could see the Coalition take back the Darwin seat of Solomon (0.2). Add that up, and the Coalition is heading for a small majority - even if Labor regains some ground in the final fortnight of the campaign. The three-poll average has Labor ahead by 54-46 in Victoria and 51-49 in NSW, and the Coalition ahead 54-46 in Queensland. For SA and WA, a five-poll average shows Labor ahead 52-48 in SA and the Coalition up 55-45 in WA. On the new boundaries, Labor holds 88 seats, the Coalition 59 and independents 3. If Labor loses 13 seats, it loses its majority. If the Coalition gains 17 or more seats, it will have a majority.

If the libs win, it will be because of voters in QLD. Hope that little thought keeps you up at night sweating skip  :D

Lisa Jones wrote on Aug 7^th, 2010 at 10:40pm:

An "objective" aside ... [...] Meantime .. Anyone else here (from any side of politics) notice how Abbott is pitching for the senior vote?? Clever man .. he knows what he's doing .. his policy/pledges are speaking to the baby boomer phenomenon in Oz. Someone should have told Gillard that over 50% of those who will vote in this election will be over 50 yrs old. Bottom line as I see it?? The election will be close .. and right now I believe Abbott can win it.

Agreed, the election will be close - but Abbott's strategy of targetting older voters is one of necessity, in terms of maintaining the Libs' existing albeit ailing support base...

Actually, that is why the Libs gave him the head job in the first instance - because the Party was losing traditional Lib voters as well as swinging ones...

The problem with that strategy, however, is that the rusted-on older Lib supporters are going to be dropping off the face of the planet in ever-larger numbers...

Which brings us to the absolute folly of the Lib agenda - and that is depriving and bashing the NEXT generation of voters and their families...

Great plan the Libs had, to threaten under 30's with tougher Work for the Dole requirements and conscription to become enslaved in the mines and sent of as cannon fodder to fight perpetual wars in our Offence Forces - NOT!!!

Oh, and it was a political master stroke, to promise to take away the computers in schools from the nation's 15-16 year olds - i.e. the ones who will be casting their first votes in the 2013 election...

Then there's their vote-winning promise to scrap the planned high speed internet roll-out that the techno-savvy younger generations have been hanging out for...

The majority of under 30's know that, under the Libs they face the grim prospect of a lifetime of financial and social uncertainty - perpetually working on an adhoc basis for lower real wages than their parents' and grandparents' generations, spending less quality time with their own kids and paying for the baby boomers' unfunded retirements and high medical needs (because the Libs recklessly paid out tens of billions annually in pre-paid pensions to the wealthiest Aussies who would never have been a budget drain through pensions anyway - instead of securing the financial futures of the majority)...

Hello, these kids have parents who vote - and they are not looking forward to funding their low paid kids forever!

Who says that the fossil fuelled Libs are out of touch with the thoughts and nees of the broader electorate, eh!?

::)

On the contrary, I think those numbers show Labor has a much better chance than I thought, thanks IQSRLOW.

Opposition Leader Tony Abbott has played down the latest opinion polls showing Labor clawing its way back to a narrow lead over the coalition.

The latest Newspoll shows Labor has regained a narrow lead, while a Galaxy poll shows a similar result.

Labor has taken a four point lead - 52-48 per cent - on the two-party vote in the Newspoll, published in The Australian, up from a split 50-50 result last week.The Galaxy poll, published in News Ltd newspapers, shows Labor on a similar lead - 51 to 49 per cent.

Newspoll boss Martin O’Shannessy cautioned against reading too much into the latest result, describing the shift to Labor as a ‘‘very minor change’’ and not statistically different from the previous week’s poll.

‘‘This is like a nil-all draw, with Labor being slightly ahead on penalties,’’ he told Sky News


http://www.theage.com.au/federal-election/labor-edges-ahead-in-latest-polls-20100809-11rh9.html?autostart=1

Labor strategist Bruce Hawker says the Gillard government could get over the line on August 21 by targeting key marginal seats, just as state Labor did in South Australia earlier this year.

In March, Labor suffered a seven per cent swing against it in SA, but Premier Mike Rann held onto power after the Liberals failed to win the key seats required to take government.

Mr Hawker, who played a pivotal role in the South Australian campaign, says a similar strategy could pay dividends at the federal level.

"The big challenge for the opposition in this campaign is to be able to get a uniform swing," he told Sky News on Sunday.

"We will be going in hard seat by seat."

Mr Hawker said the electorate really started to focus in the last couple of weeks of a campaign and "really, really focus" in the final few days.

"We saw that in South Australia last March where we were behind the entire campaign, had a lot of distractions for Mike Rann, but in the last weeks of the campaign the electorate started to think about the alternatives," he said.

When that happened "they weren't impressed".

"I think that's going to happen in the case of Tony Abbott."


http://news.ninemsn.com.au/article.aspx?id=7941761

buzzanddidj wrote on Aug 9^th, 2010 at 11:03am:

Labor strategist Bruce Hawker says the Gillard government could get over the line on August 21 by targeting key marginal seats, just as state Labor did in South Australia earlier this year. In March, Labor suffered a seven per cent swing against it in SA, but Premier Mike Rann held onto power after the Liberals failed to win the key seats required to take government. Mr Hawker, who played a pivotal role in the South Australian campaign, says a similar strategy could pay dividends at the federal level. "The big challenge for the opposition in this campaign is to be able to get a uniform swing," he told Sky News on Sunday. "We will be going in hard seat by seat." Mr Hawker said the electorate really started to focus in the last couple of weeks of a campaign and "really, really focus" in the final few days. "We saw that in South Australia last March where we were behind the entire campaign, had a lot of distractions for Mike Rann, but in the last weeks of the campaign the electorate started to think about the alternatives," he said. When that happened "they weren't impressed". "I think that's going to happen in the case of Tony Abbott." http://news.ninemsn.com.au/article.aspx?id=7941761

I guess thats always the key point to elections.

Its not about the votes, its about the seats.

Im just thankful there is only 12 more sleeps of this left.

The Coalition's two-party vote has slipped two points to 48 per cent. The same opinion poll this time last week had the two parties on a 50-50 split.

Julia Gillard has slipped one point in the preferred prime minister stakes but still leads Opposition Leader Tony Abbott 49 per cent to 34 per cent.

The number of people satisfied with the way Mr Abbott is doing his job dropped by three points to 41 per cent.

Labor's primary vote is up one point to 38 per cent while the Coalition has slumped two points to 42 per cent.

The Greens' share of the primary vote edged up one point to 13 per cent.


http://www.abc.net.au/news/stories/2010/08/09/2976970.htm



Good news for The Greens
An over 50% INCREASE on the 2007 Federal Election result


Full detail of latest Newspoll .....

http://www.newspoll.com.au/image_uploads/100802%20Federal%20Voting%20Intention%20&%20Leaders%20Ratings%20+%20Vot%20Comm%20+%20Party%20to%20win.pdf

buzzanddidj wrote on Aug 9^th, 2010 at 1:52pm:

The Coalition's two-party vote has slipped two points to 48 per cent. The same opinion poll this time last week had the two parties on a 50-50 split. Julia Gillard has slipped one point in the preferred prime minister stakes but still leads Opposition Leader Tony Abbott 49 per cent to 34 per cent. The number of people satisfied with the way Mr Abbott is doing his job dropped by three points to 41 per cent. Labor's primary vote is up one point to 38 per cent while the Coalition has slumped two points to 42 per cent. The Greens' share of the primary vote edged up one point to 13 per cent. http://www.abc.net.au/news/stories/2010/08/09/2976970.htm Good news for The Greens An over 50% INCREASE on the 2007 Federal Election result Full detail of latest Newspoll ..... http://www.newspoll.com.au/image_uploads/100802%20Federal%20Voting%20Intention%20&%20Leaders%20Ratings%20+%20Vot%20Comm%20+%20Party%20to%20win.pdf

What happened to your little hero buzzzzzzzzzz?  Oh that's right your little heroin stabbed him in the back, and has now BEGGED & BRIBED him for his support , you’re a mincing little hypocrite!

LOL and the Nielsen poll has the Coalition in front....

Of course there is only ONE poll that actually counts....and it will be held on August 21.....

gizmo_2655 wrote on Aug 9^th, 2010 at 5:36pm:

LOL and the Nielsen poll has the Coalition in front....

Labor continues to trail the coalition in the latest poll, which shows the opposition leading 51 to 49 on a two-party vote.

The Nielsen poll published in Saturday's Fairfax newspapers comes after last week's shock result, which had Labor trailing the coalition 48 to 52 on a two-party preferred basis.

Previewing the Nielsen poll on ABC's Lateline, Sydney Morning Herald political editor Peter Hartcher said Prime Minister Julia Gillard still had one advantage over Opposition Leader Tony Abbott - she's still preferred prime minister.

"The preferred prime minister is where Gillard retains an advantage," Hartcher told ABC TV.

"It's real, but it's not huge. But that's about the only area where she does."

Hartcher said the primary votes were essentially unchanged.

He said the poll revealed Labor's re-election chances would rely heavily on preferences flowing from the Greens, who are polling well at 13 per cent.


http://news.smh.com.au/breaking-news-national/labor-trails-coalition-in-polls-again-20100806-11orj.html


You don't see a pattern in the poll timeline ?
The Newspoll being the most recent
Followed by the Galaxy
Followed by the Nielsen ?

Newspoll is the one most anticipated - and quoted - by the political media
Galaxy is the most historically accurate, on records

buzzanddidj wrote on Aug 9^th, 2010 at 6:27pm:

gizmo_2655 wrote on Aug 9th, 2010 at 5:36pm: LOL and the Nielsen poll has the Coalition in front.... Labor continues to trail the coalition in the latest poll, which shows the opposition leading 51 to 49 on a two-party vote. The Nielsen poll published in Saturday's Fairfax newspapers comes after last week's shock result, which had Labor trailing the coalition 48 to 52 on a two-party preferred basis. Previewing the Nielsen poll on ABC's Lateline, Sydney Morning Herald political editor Peter Hartcher said Prime Minister Julia Gillard still had one advantage over Opposition Leader Tony Abbott - she's still preferred prime minister. "The preferred prime minister is where Gillard retains an advantage," Hartcher told ABC TV. "It's real, but it's not huge. But that's about the only area where she does." Hartcher said the primary votes were essentially unchanged. He said the poll revealed Labor's re-election chances would rely heavily on preferences flowing from the Greens, who are polling well at 13 per cent. http://news.smh.com.au/breaking-news-national/labor-trails-coalition-in-polls-again-20100806-11orj.html You don't see a pattern in the poll timeline ? The Newspoll being the most recent Followed by the Galaxy Followed by the Nielsen ? Newspoll is the one most anticipated - and quoted - by the political media Galaxy is the most historically accurate, on records

I dont believe any of these polls. they are too volatile to be of much value. is there ANYTHING that has happened in the last week that would have genuinely shifted voting intentions? this is the blandest election on record yet has some of the most volatile polls. I want to se the aug21 'poll' instead.

Meantime, the betting odds are very telling: -

http://www.ozpolitic.com/forum/YaBB.pl?action=recent;display=10


Dsmithy70 wrote on Aug 10^th, 2010 at 1:29pm:

http://www.smh.com.au/federal-election/huge-betting-plunge-for-labor-20100810-11vu4.html?rand=1281405660142 Huge betting plunge for Labor Labor has been the subject of a huge betting plunge on it winning the August 21 election. Centrebet received a bet of $20,000 at 10am, immediately shortening Labor's odds of winning. But this was trumped only 40 minutes later by a $40,000 wager and then another bet of $15,000 - seeing the odds of Julia Gillard becoming prime minister shorten from $1.62 to $1.53. The betting agency's analyst, Neil Evans, said nearly $200,000 had been wagered on the election today. Almost all of the money had been for Labor, with the largest bet for the Coalition being only $2000. Mr Evans said the bets had all been taken in the wake of Ms Gillard's appearance on ABC's Q&A program, where she appeared confident and forthright under tricky questioning. The ABC this morning said last night's Q&A drew more than 841,000 viewers, the show's best-rating effort since it debuted in 2008. The return of The Chaser, with election special Yes, We Canberra, in the 9.30pm timeslot two weeks ago pulled just under 1.5 million viewers. The betting surge had also followed prominent media reporting of an interview from former Labor leader Mark Latham, who accused Ms Gillard of patronising him and stroking his front. The Coalition has now blown out to $2.48. The opposition had originally been backed in at $2.27 over the weekend, its shortest price, after Ms Gillard was confronted by Mr Latham and endured an awkward get together with Kevin Rudd. "Despite being heavily backed in many key marginal seats, budgetary pressures on the Coalition's senior team are mounting, and Mr Abbott must now get right on the policy front foot," Mr Evans said. "Right now, Labor is winning ... but this is a bizarre and unique election. "The shortening of the odds for Labor in just half a day is a massive statement." Mr Evans said he believed Labor's latest advertisements - in which it uses former Treasurer Peter Costello seemingly ridiculing Opposition Leader Tony Abbott's economic credentials - had worked in the minds of punters who were now switching to Labor.

Equitist wrote on Aug 10^th, 2010 at 1:43pm:

Meantime, the betting odds are very telling: - http://www.ozpolitic.com/forum/YaBB.pl?action=recent;display=10 Dsmithy70 wrote on Aug 10th, 2010 at 1:29pm: http://www.smh.com.au/federal-election/huge-betting-plunge-for-labor-20100810-11vu4.html?rand=1281405660142 Huge betting plunge for Labor Labor has been the subject of a huge betting plunge on it winning the August 21 election. Centrebet received a bet of $20,000 at 10am, immediately shortening Labor's odds of winning. But this was trumped only 40 minutes later by a $40,000 wager and then another bet of $15,000 - seeing the odds of Julia Gillard becoming prime minister shorten from $1.62 to $1.53. The betting agency's analyst, Neil Evans, said nearly $200,000 had been wagered on the election today. Almost all of the money had been for Labor, with the largest bet for the Coalition being only $2000. Mr Evans said the bets had all been taken in the wake of Ms Gillard's appearance on ABC's Q&A program, where she appeared confident and forthright under tricky questioning. The ABC this morning said last night's Q&A drew more than 841,000 viewers, the show's best-rating effort since it debuted in 2008. The return of The Chaser, with election special Yes, We Canberra, in the 9.30pm timeslot two weeks ago pulled just under 1.5 million viewers. The betting surge had also followed prominent media reporting of an interview from former Labor leader Mark Latham, who accused Ms Gillard of patronising him and stroking his front. The Coalition has now blown out to $2.48. The opposition had originally been backed in at $2.27 over the weekend, its shortest price, after Ms Gillard was confronted by Mr Latham and endured an awkward get together with Kevin Rudd. "Despite being heavily backed in many key marginal seats, budgetary pressures on the Coalition's senior team are mounting, and Mr Abbott must now get right on the policy front foot," Mr Evans said. "Right now, Labor is winning ... but this is a bizarre and unique election. "The shortening of the odds for Labor in just half a day is a massive statement." Mr Evans said he believed Labor's latest advertisements - in which it uses former Treasurer Peter Costello seemingly ridiculing Opposition Leader Tony Abbott's economic credentials - had worked in the minds of punters who were now switching to Labor.

Centrebet received a bet of $20,000 at 10am, immediately shortening Labor's odds of winning. But this was trumped only 40 minutes later by a $40,000 wager and then another bet of $15,000 - seeing the odds of Julia Gillard becoming prime minister shorten from $1.62 to $1.53   SO 3 BETS SEND YOU CLOWNS INT A FRENZY    FFS

some voters dislike govts who FAIL repeatedly ............



Quote:

......LABOR faces the loss of up to 16 seats in NSW and Queensland alone. Any gains in Julia Gillard's "home states" of South Australia and Victoria likely to be offset by losses in an increasingly hostile west. Labor continues to hold a narrow lead in national polling on a two-party-preferred basis -- 51 per cent to 49 per cent -- but the latest figures from Newspoll, published exclusively in The Australian today, reveal huge differences in voter support between the states. It is now possible that Labor could win the most votes on a national basis but still lose enough seats to be put out of office. The Coalition has opened a huge lead in Western Australia and has held its clear lead in the key state of Queensland.............

http://www.theaustralian.com.au/national-affairs/labor-struggling-in-key-states/story-fn59niix-1225903679424

Sprintcyclist wrote on Aug 11^th, 2010 at 1:00am:

some voters dislike govts who FAIL repeatedly ............ Quote: ......LABOR faces the loss of up to 16 seats in NSW and Queensland alone. Any gains in Julia Gillard's "home states" of South Australia and Victoria likely to be offset by losses in an increasingly hostile west. Labor continues to hold a narrow lead in national polling on a two-party-preferred basis -- 51 per cent to 49 per cent -- but the latest figures from Newspoll, published exclusively in The Australian today, reveal huge differences in voter support between the states. It is now possible that Labor could win the most votes on a national basis but still lose enough seats to be put out of office. The Coalition has opened a huge lead in Western Australia and has held its clear lead in the key state of Queensland............. http://www.theaustralian.com.au/national-affairs/labor-struggling-in-key-states/story-fn59niix-1225903679424

It has happened before that massive polarisation leads to a govt that is formed on less than 50% of the 2PP vote, and it could happen again this year. Labor WILL lose 16 seats in QLD/NSW whichis already enought to lose govt. and WA looks like losing 1-3 seats as well. Vic wil probably gain labor 1-2 seats and SA wont change at all despite the wishes and dreams of some labor supporters. NT may lose a seat for labor as well. TAS has nothing to gain and a slight chance of a seat to lose.

Kev's mining tax fiasco will stil be the final straw which will cost labor government.

A good joke but not worth its own thread:

If you are Labour worrying about Liberals, or vice versa...

Here is the real problem:

In a Sydney University classroom, they were discussing the
qualifications to be Prime Minister of Australia.

It is pretty simple.  The candidate must be a natural born citizen of at
least 35 years of age.

However, one girl in the class immediately started in on how unfair was
the requirement to be a natural born citizen. In short, her opinion was
that this requirement prevented many capable individuals from becoming
the Prime Minister.

The class was taking it in and letting her rant but many jaws hit the
floor when she wrapped up her argument by stating, "What makes a natural
born citizen any more qualified to lead this country than one born by
C-section?"

Yep, these are the same kind of 18-year-olds that vote in our elections!

Dsmithy70 wrote on Aug 11^th, 2010 at 9:11am:

A good joke but not worth its own thread: If you are Labour worrying about Liberals, or vice versa... Here is the real problem: In a Sydney University classroom, they were discussing the qualifications to be Prime Minister of Australia. It is pretty simple.  The candidate must be a natural born citizen of at least 35 years of age. However, one girl in the class immediately started in on how unfair was the requirement to be a natural born citizen. In short, her opinion was that this requirement prevented many capable individuals from becoming the Prime Minister. The class was taking it in and letting her rant but many jaws hit the floor when she wrapped up her argument by stating, "What makes a natural born citizen any more qualified to lead this country than one born by C-section?" Yep, these are the same kind of 18-year-olds that vote in our elections!

It's a funny story altho obviously an american one since we dont have such requirements on our PM. it is rather quaint and silly that the USA still has this embarrassing requirement.

longweekend58 wrote on Aug 11^th, 2010 at 9:04am:

It has happened before that massive polarisation leads to a govt that is formed on less than 50% of the 2PP vote, and it could happen again this year. Labor WILL lose 16 seats in QLD/NSW whichis already enought to lose govt. and WA looks like losing 1-3 seats as well. Vic wil probably gain labor 1-2 seats and SA wont change at all despite the wishes and dreams of some labor supporters. NT may lose a seat for labor as well. TAS has nothing to gain and a slight chance of a seat to lose. Kev's mining tax fiasco will stil be the final straw which will cost labor government.

Yes - Labor has come out with more votes than the coalition previously, yet they haven't had the seats to win government.

The mining tax needs to stay and be vamped up a bit - we can't rely solely on mining for our exports.

The less mining we encourage, the more we will diversify into more creative and technological products for export.

You Liberals want Australia turning into a third world country quarry. This can be curbed if the Greens have the balance of power.

Quote:

Yes - Labor has come out with more votes than the coalition previously, yet they haven't had the seats to win government.

Of course, if you could read you woud know that labor trails the coalition in primary votes by a HUGE margin. it is only the preferences from the Greens that give the false illusion that labor gets more votes when it actually doesnt.


Quote:

The less mining we encourage, the more we will diversify into more creative and technological products for export.

And this is one reason why the Greens cant be trusted anywhere NEAR the seat of power. Let's just destroy our most vital industry!

idiots.

Dsmithy70 wrote on Aug 11^th, 2010 at 9:11am:

A good joke but not worth its own thread: If you are Labour worrying about Liberals, or vice versa... Here is the real problem: In a Sydney University classroom, they were discussing the qualifications to be Prime Minister of Australia. It is pretty simple.  The candidate must be a natural born citizen of at least 35 years of age. However, one girl in the class immediately started in on how unfair was the requirement to be a natural born citizen. In short, her opinion was that this requirement prevented many capable individuals from becoming the Prime Minister. The class was taking it in and letting her rant but many jaws hit the floor when she wrapped up her argument by stating, "What makes a natural born citizen any more qualified to lead this country than one born by C-section?" Yep, these are the same kind of 18-year-olds that vote in our elections!

hahahah,  ;D Not bad.

Gillard by any chance, delivering her maiden speech upon entering the socialist forum back in her uni days?

Morgan face-to-face: 57.5-42.5 to Labor
Thursday, August 12, 2010

News Radio reports the latest Morgan face-to-face poll, conducted last weekend, has Labor’s two-party lead leaping to 57.5-42.5. This series is traditionally favourable to Labor, but the lead recorded here is their highest since February. The Greens primary vote was 15.5 per cent, up 4.5 per cent, the highest ever recorded by Morgan (no other details available yet on the primary vote). Contrary to expectation, Morgan does not seem to have conducted a mid-week phone poll as it has been doing throughout the campaign so far.

UPDATE: Labor actually down a point on the primary vote from last week to 43 per cent, but the Coalition are down four to 37 per cent, making room for that Greens surge.


http://blogs.crikey.com.au/pollbludger/2010/08/12/morgan-face-to-face-57-5-42-5-to-labor/

Surge for Labor, Coalition vote falls  
August 14, 2010

LABOR has surged to a strong 53-47 per cent two-party lead a week from the election, with a new poll also showing a sharp fall in Opposition Leader Tony Abbott's approval.

As Prime Minister Julia Gillard had a much better fourth week, Labor's two-party vote in the Age/Nielsen poll rose 4 percentage points. Its primary vote was also up 4 points to 40 per cent - about the level it needs to be confident of hanging on.

The Coalition has lost 3 points in a week from its primary vote - on 41 per cent, it is only slightly ahead of Labor.

Ms Gillard widened her advantage as preferred prime minister. She leads 52 per cent, up 3 points, to Mr Abbott's 38 per cent, down 3 points.

There are signs of improvement for Labor in the key states of Queensland and New South Wales, where it is most worried about losing seats.

On these figures, Labor would be returned with its majority little changed.


http://www.theage.com.au/federal-election/surge-for-labor-coalition-vote-falls-20100813-12393.html

buzzanddidj wrote on Aug 14^th, 2010 at 8:30am:

Surge for Labor, Coalition vote falls   August 14, 2010 LABOR has surged to a strong 53-47 per cent two-party lead a week from the election, with a new poll also showing a sharp fall in Opposition Leader Tony Abbott's approval. As Prime Minister Julia Gillard had a much better fourth week, Labor's two-party vote in the Age/Nielsen poll rose 4 percentage points. Its primary vote was also up 4 points to 40 per cent - about the level it needs to be confident of hanging on. The Coalition has lost 3 points in a week from its primary vote - on 41 per cent, it is only slightly ahead of Labor. Ms Gillard widened her advantage as preferred prime minister. She leads 52 per cent, up 3 points, to Mr Abbott's 38 per cent, down 3 points. There are signs of improvement for Labor in the key states of Queensland and New South Wales, where it is most worried about losing seats. On these figures, Labor would be returned with its majority little changed. http://www.theage.com.au/federal-election/surge-for-labor-coalition-vote-falls-20100813-12393.html

I will go on record as saying these polls are wrong and wildy so. Whilst I retain my belief that Labor will win the election it wil be on a wafer-thin margin. With QLD NSW and WA showing very strong swings against labor and with the possibility of losing 12 7 and 3 seats respectively, the notion that the margin will remain 'unchanged' seems unlikely. That would imply a similar swing TO labor in VIc and SA.  NT and TAS already have 100% labor seats. so where is the compensatory seats going to come from?

QLD WA and NSW can improve significantly and still retain a strong anti-labor swing.

as an example of why I dont believe these polls, the latest one shows a 4% increase in labor's primary vote. On the basis of what? what gillard stroke of genius occured to do that? what Massive Abbott faux pas occurred to lierally drive 500,000 people to labor? The answer is simple: nothing.

I believe election 2010 will be an election where the polls are shown to be very wrong. I guess we will all know in a week's time.

a tough nservative rhodes scholar boxer is running the campaign.
last week to come, he'll accelerate away hard.

suck on this one lefty-weftys



Quote:

THE Coalition is leading the government and is on track to win the 17 seats it needs for an election victory, according to a Galaxy Poll. On a two-party preferred basis, the Coalition is ahead of the ALP 51.4 per cent to 48.6 per cent, the opinion poll published by News Limited’s Sunday newspapers. News Limited also publishes of The Australian. The poll of 4000 voters in 20 marginal electorates in five states predicts devastation for Labor in Queensland, where a potential swing of 5.4 per cent against the government could cost it 10 seats. In NSW, polling in Eden-Monaro, Gilmore, Macarthur and Macquarie found a swing of 2.4 per cent against the government, while the coalition was likely to win all the seats polled, plus three others if the swing was statewide. The coalition is also in front in Swan and Hasluck in Western Australia according to the poll.........

http://www.theaustralian.com.au/national-affairs/poll-shows-swing-to-coalition-in-marginals/story-fn59niix-1225905368563

Quick, sprint, stick $1000 on the libs at $3.60!  You will clean up!

Sprintcyclist wrote on Aug 15^th, 2010 at 2:46pm:

a tough nservative rhodes scholar boxer is running the campaign. last week to come, he'll accelerate away hard. suck on this one lefty-weftys Quote: THE Coalition is leading the government and is on track to win the 17 seats it needs for an election victory, according to a Galaxy Poll. On a two-party preferred basis, the Coalition is ahead of the ALP 51.4 per cent to 48.6 per cent, the opinion poll published by News Limited’s Sunday newspapers. News Limited also publishes of The Australian. The poll of 4000 voters in 20 marginal electorates in five states predicts devastation for Labor in Queensland, where a potential swing of 5.4 per cent against the government could cost it 10 seats. In NSW, polling in Eden-Monaro, Gilmore, Macarthur and Macquarie found a swing of 2.4 per cent against the government, while the coalition was likely to win all the seats polled, plus three others if the swing was statewide. The coalition is also in front in Swan and Hasluck in Western Australia according to the poll......... http://www.theaustralian.com.au/national-affairs/poll-shows-swing-to-coalition-in-marginals/story-fn59niix-1225905368563

You do know that poll has been proven to be wrong ,don't you sprint?
Its actually a Labor 52 Lib 48, LOL LOL LOL

that aside, did you see the amount polled sprint?, yes i know you saw the 4000 number and got a little woodie, didn't you?
Look at it mate, 4000 divided by 20 sprint,whats that equal? I'll tell you, I know you're a kiwi, its 200 a seat sprint, hardly a reliable poll.
That aside, besides the fact they stuffed up on polling such a small number, they then stuffed up their figures.
There's another thread on this forum that I just read that explains their mistakes.
I feel sorry for you sprinty, you do try so hard.

Quote:

.......and got a little woodie, didn't you?...........

a little woodie ?????????? I feel like "Jake the peg !"

Sprintcyclist wrote on Aug 15^th, 2010 at 2:55pm:

Quote: .......and got a little woodie, didn't you?........... a little woodie ?????????? I feel like "Jake the peg !"

You're on the right track then. Its the middle stump.

hahaha at least that is honest, Sprint. But now put soem money where your pegleg is!

skippy. wrote on Aug 15^th, 2010 at 2:53pm:

Sprintcyclist wrote on Aug 15th, 2010 at 2:46pm: a tough nservative rhodes scholar boxer is running the campaign. last week to come, he'll accelerate away hard. suck on this one lefty-weftys Quote: THE Coalition is leading the government and is on track to win the 17 seats it needs for an election victory, according to a Galaxy Poll. On a two-party preferred basis, the Coalition is ahead of the ALP 51.4 per cent to 48.6 per cent, the opinion poll published by News Limited’s Sunday newspapers. News Limited also publishes of The Australian. The poll of 4000 voters in 20 marginal electorates in five states predicts devastation for Labor in Queensland, where a potential swing of 5.4 per cent against the government could cost it 10 seats. In NSW, polling in Eden-Monaro, Gilmore, Macarthur and Macquarie found a swing of 2.4 per cent against the government, while the coalition was likely to win all the seats polled, plus three others if the swing was statewide. The coalition is also in front in Swan and Hasluck in Western Australia according to the poll......... http://www.theaustralian.com.au/national-affairs/poll-shows-swing-to-coalition-in-marginals/story-fn59niix-1225905368563 You do know that poll has been proven to be wrong ,don't you sprint? Its actually a Labor 52 Lib 48, LOL LOL LOL that aside, did you see the amount polled sprint?, yes i know you saw the 4000 number and got a little woodie, didn't you? Look at it mate, 4000 divided by 20 sprint,whats that equal? I'll tell you, I know you're a kiwi, its 200 a seat sprint, hardly a reliable poll. That aside, besides the fact they stuffed up on polling such a small number, they then stuffed up their figures. There's another thread on this forum that I just read that explains their mistakes. I feel sorry for you sprinty, you do try so hard.

'proven' wrong??? given that the polls are all varying by huge amounts even internally, the polls give us little guidance to the result. I think the only thing we can be sure of is that the polls will be wildly wrong.

Skippy and Darwin are furious poll strokers

Cyberman wrote on Aug 15^th, 2010 at 3:48pm:

Skippy and Darwin are furious poll strokers

Their opinions do tend to be wildy emotional and ideological rather than rational.

Actually, all the polls published Fri & Sat show Labor winning.

I suggest you read: http://blogs.crikey.com.au/pollytics/
Antony Green on his ABC pseph blog shows how Ltd News got the Galaxy marginal seat poll wrong.

Marginal seat polls are notoriously difficult to interpret: polls of just 200 people surveyed have a Margin of Error of like 7-8%. Additionally, how do you stratify a sample like that? Metro/urban, male/female, rich/poor is 6 categories with 200/6 = 33 people to be surveyed in each category and that just leads to huge total MoE! then Ltd News tried to turn this mish mash into a national poll? And didn’t allow for the differing sized populations in the states? Garbage!

BTW, Morgan face to face polls are notoriously skewed to labor.

All the polls point to Labor 52 coalition 48.

longweekend58 wrote on Aug 15^th, 2010 at 3:50pm:

Cyberman wrote on Aug 15th, 2010 at 3:48pm: Skippy and Darwin are furious poll strokers Their opinions do tend to be wildy emotional and ideological rather than rational.

Unlike buzzzzzzzz, who just thinks the polls are 100% accurate when they go  HIS (laborite) way.  ;D

longweekend58 wrote on Aug 15^th, 2010 at 3:50pm:

Cyberman wrote on Aug 15th, 2010 at 3:48pm: Skippy and Darwin are furious poll strokers Their opinions do tend to be wildy emotional and ideological rather than rational.

Yes. You can see from the above, if the result is not to their liking then they howl, piss and moan about it like a child having a temper tantrum

Darwin wrote on Aug 15^th, 2010 at 4:10pm:

Actually, all the polls published Fri & Sat show Labor winning. I suggest you read: http://blogs.crikey.com.au/pollytics/ Antony Green on his ABC pseph blog shows how Ltd News got the Galaxy marginal seat poll wrong. Marginal seat polls are notoriously difficult to interpret: polls of just 200 people surveyed have a Margin of Error of like 7-8%. Additionally, how do you stratify a sample like that? Metro/urban, male/female, rich/poor is 6 categories with 200/6 = 33 people to be surveyed in each category and that just leads to huge total MoE! then Ltd News tried to turn this mish mash into a national poll? And didn’t allow for the differing sized populations in the states? Garbage! BTW, Morgan face to face polls are notoriously skewed to labor. All the polls point to Labor 52 coalition 48.

That is on friday only. By monday it wil be yet another figure and then another. In case you havent worked it out, the polls are ALL OVER THE PLACE. And it isnt because the polls are incapable of doing a good job because they have shown in the past that they are. but the electorate is volatile and a huge portion have stil lnot decided who they wil vote for. NO POLL can accurately measure that which has not yet been decided. The marginals are crucial and anyu guess how they wilo fall.

But something worth keeping in mind is how the marginals can affect the result in an almost anti-democratic way. in the SA state election, the finall 2PP result was liberals way 51.7/48.3.  But labor won the battle for the marginals and stayed in power despite being crushed by the popular vote. But it runs both ways... the final result COULD be labor 52/48 but with Abbot as PM from winning the marginals. There are two very disparate elections running at the moment: WA/QLD/NSW are crushign labor while to rest are staying status quo. It is making it hard to get an accurate reading on who will win because the 2PP figure is less relevant than it ever has been. It is ONLY the marginals that count.

You need a bit of understanding of statistics. When you do a number of experiments or surveys you get some random variation from the true mean, sampling error or for political surveys Margin of Error. Allowing for this, all the polls show very similar figures, with a trend towards the ALP. Look up the blog by Possum, or Antony Green’s blog on the ABC.

Complicating things slightly, the MoE varies with sample size, the bigger the sample the smaller the MoE. the Galaxy wasn’t a 4000 sample poll, it was twenty polls with 200 samples each. the Newspoll to be published today or tomorrow will have a sample size of about 1700 that has an MoE of 2% or a tad less.

Now, stats is done to a confidence interval, 95% usually so 1 in 20 (5%) of polls are hopelessly wrong. In political terms we have a rogue poll. We have not had a rogue poll in the last couple of days.

Labor will win with about the same 83 seats as it has now.

For the sake of Australia, lets hope you are wrong. Just like you were about Rudd  ;D

Darwin wrote on Aug 15^th, 2010 at 4:30pm:

You need a bit of understanding of statistics. When you do a number of experiments or surveys you get some random variation from the true mean, sampling error or for political surveys Margin of Error. Allowing for this, all the polls show very similar figures, with a trend towards the ALP. Look up the blog by Possum, or Antony Green’s blog on the ABC. Complicating things slightly, the MoE varies with sample size, the bigger the sample the smaller the MoE. the Galaxy wasn’t a 4000 sample poll, it was twenty polls with 200 samples each. the Newspoll to be published today or tomorrow will have a sample size of about 1700 that has an MoE of 2% or a tad less. Now, stats is done to a confidence interval, 95% usually so 1 in 20 (5%) of polls are hopelessly wrong. In political terms we have a rogue poll. We have not had a rogue poll in the last couple of days. Labor will win with about the same 83 seats as it has now.

Ive forgotten more about statistics than you will ever know (Mathematical Statistics student at uni). If you think the polls are consistent then you are quite deluded. they have varied from massive labor victories to significant liberal victories and everything in between. Traditionally, polls are able to predict the winner and the margin pretty accurately, a week out, but this time the variation is still massive. Their prediction of a labor victory is hardly breathtaking since that has been the consensus of 95% of polls in the last year. but the margin is all over the place. 200 people in a marginal seat is NOT a poor sampling if done right. However the real problem remains (and is clearly obvious to most) that the electorate itself is still very volatile and undecided and the polls are picking up on that. Personally I think labor are in a degree of trouble given the WA/QLD/NSW problems. But we wont know until saturday night.

Guess that course was a while ago? Because you are wrong. Have a look at the polls again.

Darwin wrote on Aug 15^th, 2010 at 4:39pm:

Guess that course was a while ago? Because you are wrong. Have a look at the polls again.

As detailed rebuttals go, that was a pretty poor effort. want to try agin or will we just stay with yoru statistical knowlege and political history understanding being gleaned entirely from wikipedia?

How about you try formulating a single post that is based on logic and reason, seasoned with facts and figures instead of your wishful ideological rants? or are you going to be the only moron who wants to say the polls are perfect because they support your desired outcome?

try again.

Leading analysts cast doubt on poll figures  
August 15, 2010 - 11:31AM

Three opinion polls this weekend paint a confused picture of the election outcome, with leading analysts casting doubt on the latest opinion poll that gives the Coalition the winning edge over Labor in the last week of the campaign.

The Galaxy poll of 4000 voters in 20 marginal seats puts coalition support at 51.4 per cent to Labor's 48.6 per cent on preferences.

But the Galaxy poll finding is not supported by two leading analysts.

ABC election analyst Antony Green says he comes up with a different result when entering the projected Galaxy swings into his election calculator.

"Someone has made an absolute howler in trying to turn polls in 20 marginal seats into a national figure," the ABC expert wrote on his blog, adding whoever calculated the vote committed two serious errors.

"First, the figures are for four electorates, not the states. Second, while the state samples are the same size, the state populations are not," he said.

Mr Green says his calculation from the Galaxy poll shows Labor at 51 per cent, not 48.6 per cent.

Andrew Catsaras, a strategic marketing consultant and polling analyst, told Network 10 he also had doubts about the poll's findings describing them as "a bit misleading".

"It would have been better to pick a marginal seat and poll that, then you would have got a better indication about what's going on (in Queensland)," he said.

A Newspoll of marginal seats, published this weekend in The Australian was far more instructive of what was happening in the electorate, Mr Catsaras said.

That poll showed Labor losing three or four seats in Queensland.

"That sounds more realistic than what's being reported this morning," Mr Catsaras said.


http://www.smh.com.au/national/leading-analysts-cast-doubt-on-poll-figures-20100815-124ua.html

bi partisan politics is a proven lie

and so it is

namaste

Read erm and weep tards.


Quote:

Leading analysts cast doubt on poll figures AAP August 15, 2010 - 11:31AM Three opinion polls this weekend paint a confused picture of the election outcome, with leading analysts casting doubt on the latest opinion poll that gives the Coalition the winning edge over Labor in the last week of the campaign. The Galaxy poll of 4000 voters in 20 marginal seats puts coalition support at 51.4 per cent to Labor's 48.6 per cent on preferences. But the Galaxy poll finding is not supported by two leading analysts. ABC election analyst Antony Green says he comes up with a different result when entering the projected Galaxy swings into his election calculator. "Someone has made an absolute howler in trying to turn polls in 20 marginal seats into a national figure," the ABC expert wrote on his blog, adding whoever calculated the vote committed two serious errors. "First, the figures are for four electorates, not the states. Second, while the state samples are the same size, the state populations are not," he said. Mr Green says his calculation from the Galaxy poll shows Labor at 51 per cent, not 48.6 per cent. Andrew Catsaras, a strategic marketing consultant and polling analyst, told Network 10 he also had doubts about the poll's findings describing them as "a bit misleading". "It would have been better to pick a marginal seat and poll that, then you would have got a better indication about what's going on (in Queensland)," he said. A Newspoll of marginal seats, published this weekend in The Australian was far more instructive of what was happening in the electorate, Mr Catsaras said. That poll showed Labor losing three or four seats in Queensland. "That sounds more realistic than what's being reported this morning," Mr Catsaras said

Oops ,sorry buzz, great minds think alike. :-?

buzzanddidj wrote on Aug 15^th, 2010 at 4:45pm:

Leading analysts cast doubt on poll figures   August 15, 2010 - 11:31AM Three opinion polls this weekend paint a confused picture of the election outcome, with leading analysts casting doubt on the latest opinion poll that gives the Coalition the winning edge over Labor in the last week of the campaign. The Galaxy poll of 4000 voters in 20 marginal seats puts coalition support at 51.4 per cent to Labor's 48.6 per cent on preferences. But the Galaxy poll finding is not supported by two leading analysts. ABC election analyst Antony Green says he comes up with a different result when entering the projected Galaxy swings into his election calculator. "Someone has made an absolute howler in trying to turn polls in 20 marginal seats into a national figure," the ABC expert wrote on his blog, adding whoever calculated the vote committed two serious errors. "First, the figures are for four electorates, not the states. Second, while the state samples are the same size, the state populations are not," he said. Mr Green says his calculation from the Galaxy poll shows Labor at 51 per cent, not 48.6 per cent. Andrew Catsaras, a strategic marketing consultant and polling analyst, told Network 10 he also had doubts about the poll's findings describing them as "a bit misleading". "It would have been better to pick a marginal seat and poll that, then you would have got a better indication about what's going on (in Queensland)," he said. A Newspoll of marginal seats, published this weekend in The Australian was far more instructive of what was happening in the electorate, Mr Catsaras said. That poll showed Labor losing three or four seats in Queensland. "That sounds more realistic than what's being reported this morning," Mr Catsaras said. http://www.smh.com.au/national/leading-analysts-cast-doubt-on-poll-figures-20100815-124ua.html

I know you feel major pain at the thought of abbott winning but you could try some understanding of the process and that there is massive difference around the country regarding the two parties. with labor in WA at 42/58 and in VIC at almost the reverse you must consider that predicting the outcome is going to be very difficult.

but then again, you are Buzz the believer in polls-you-like rather than polls you trust.

So hang on a bit leftards...

in other posts you have told us how Galaxy is regarded as the most accurate poll... but because you dont like it it is now crap??? Is it really that conceivable that the country's most consistently accurate polling group would suddenly throw away good statistical methods and interpretation? or is it actually more likely that rather than denigrating the pollsters the REAL reason is one of the following:

1) you dont like the outcome
2) it is not in agreement with other polls - even tho they are not polling the same target
3) they were polling marginal seats - not nationside. of course the fact that the marginals wil decide the outcome anyhow obviouslly doesnt seem to be understood.

Don’t want to let go of Ltd News’ misreporting of this poll eh?

Darwin wrote on Aug 15^th, 2010 at 4:55pm:

Don’t want to let go of Ltd News’ misreporting of this poll eh?

Could you articulate the misreporting or do we just consider you a fool and leave it at that?

Who has said galaxy is the most accurate poll? Most consistently accurate polling group?

What was wrong was Ltd News’ inerpretation of the poll. They took the five states averages and averaged those! As I have said before, this failed to take into account the different population sizes in each state and this was a marginal seat survey not a national one. Maybe actually reading posts might help?

longweekend58 wrote on Aug 15^th, 2010 at 4:57pm:

Darwin wrote on Aug 15th, 2010 at 4:55pm: Don’t want to let go of Ltd News’ misreporting of this poll eh? Could you articulate the misreporting or do we just consider you a fool and leave it at that?

If you start calling people fools maybe check to make sure they haven’t already answered the question you ask.

Darwin wrote on Aug 15^th, 2010 at 5:01pm:

longweekend58 wrote on Aug 15th, 2010 at 4:57pm: Darwin wrote on Aug 15th, 2010 at 4:55pm: Don’t want to let go of Ltd News’ misreporting of this poll eh? Could you articulate the misreporting or do we just consider you a fool and leave it at that? If you start calling people fools maybe check to make sure they haven’t already answered the question you ask.

No, calling you a fool is entirely justified and wil remain so until you start putting up posts that are even close to truth. when you want to talk about labors great river murray acheivements you look like an idiot. and the rest of your garbage is embarrassingly bad. you seem to be totally unware of the multiple failures of this govt. even Buzz can work out they are not perfect!

I see, you have no answers. No worries.

Actually the Labor Party have taken much bigger strides in managing the River Murray than previous govts.
Its certainly not perfect but there has certainly been a shift in thinking when it comes to state and federal govts when it comes to water management.
I know this because my company has many of the contracts in SA, NSW and Vic  :P

adelcrow wrote on Aug 15^th, 2010 at 5:31pm:

Actually the Labor Party have taken much bigger strides in managing the River Murray than previous govts. Its certainly not perfect but there has certainly been a shift in thinking when it comes to state and federal govts when it comes to water management. I know this because my company has many of the contracts in SA, NSW and Vic  :P

A shift in thinking is one thing... actually DOING something is completely different. and no matter what you say about Howards handling of the river murray, labor can only claim to have talked more - not acted more. it is bureaucratic and befuddled with doubletalk. in the meantime, no extra water actually reaches the murry and it continues to evaporate from medindie lakes because labor cancelled the contract to fix the problem and replaced it with...

a review.

and 3 years later there is no plan to fix it.

if that is an example of labors 'committment' to water then they dont deserve to be in power.

longweekend58 wrote on Aug 15^th, 2010 at 4:50pm:

buzzanddidj wrote on Aug 15th, 2010 at 4:45pm: Leading analysts cast doubt on poll figures   August 15, 2010 - 11:31AM Three opinion polls this weekend paint a confused picture of the election outcome, with leading analysts casting doubt on the latest opinion poll that gives the Coalition the winning edge over Labor in the last week of the campaign. The Galaxy poll of 4000 voters in 20 marginal seats puts coalition support at 51.4 per cent to Labor's 48.6 per cent on preferences. But the Galaxy poll finding is not supported by two leading analysts. ABC election analyst Antony Green says he comes up with a different result when entering the projected Galaxy swings into his election calculator. "Someone has made an absolute howler in trying to turn polls in 20 marginal seats into a national figure," the ABC expert wrote on his blog, adding whoever calculated the vote committed two serious errors. "First, the figures are for four electorates, not the states. Second, while the state samples are the same size, the state populations are not," he said. Mr Green says his calculation from the Galaxy poll shows Labor at 51 per cent, not 48.6 per cent. Andrew Catsaras, a strategic marketing consultant and polling analyst, told Network 10 he also had doubts about the poll's findings describing them as "a bit misleading". "It would have been better to pick a marginal seat and poll that, then you would have got a better indication about what's going on (in Queensland)," he said. A Newspoll of marginal seats, published this weekend in The Australian was far more instructive of what was happening in the electorate, Mr Catsaras said. That poll showed Labor losing three or four seats in Queensland. "That sounds more realistic than what's being reported this morning," Mr Catsaras said. http://www.smh.com.au/national/leading-analysts-cast-doubt-on-poll-figures-20100815-124ua.html I know you feel major pain at the thought of abbott winning but you could try some understanding of the process and that there is massive difference around the country regarding the two parties. with labor in WA at 42/58 and in VIC at almost the reverse you must consider that predicting the outcome is going to be very difficult. but then again, you are Buzz the believer in polls-you-like rather than polls you trust.

Quite the CONTRARY
I'm the FIRST to admit this election is 50/50 in the odds department
Though I am a LITTLE curious (on a trivial note) why this hasn't been reflected in the betting odds ?

I've ALSO come to think every poll conducted is influenced somewhat by the results of the previous one - and whether ANY of them are a true reflection of voting intent, or merely a spur of the moment, fickle statement based on the last news glimpse of the leaders

Today's Galaxy in marginals come down to about 200 voters per electorate ... yeah good headlines today for pro liberal readers ... yet not a big enough sample to bet your house on.

In the past 3 yrs we've managed to build a business around the states and the Federal govts actions on water management so I can tell you that there is a lot of work being done in the Environmental Management area that was previously ignored.
Just because the real research and work that's being done on the ground isn't "sexy" enough for the media does not mean it isn't happening

Quote:

Though I am a LITTLE curious (on a trivial note) why this hasn't been reflected in the betting odds ?

Because the election analysts who the various betting places use don't think the result will be as close as the polls suggest.

With the polls 'flip flopping' all over the place in the last two or three weeks, Im not getting to excited or disheartened by any of the results.

What it tells me is this election is pretty much on a knife edge, however history tells us the odds are heavily stacked against the coalition.

Verge wrote on Aug 15^th, 2010 at 7:55pm:

What it tells me is this election is pretty much on a knife edge, however history tells us the odds are heavily stacked against the coalition.

How is that the case? Wouldn't the odds be against the ALP, seeing they had to fight for 12 years to gain power while the Liberals were controlling the country?

Australia hasn't tossed out a first term govt in 70 years so the odds are against the coalition, however Australia hasn't seen this level of incompetency from a first term govt.

Labor deserve to be thrown out and lets hope they are and the are consigned to the doldrums for the next 20 years so that they never geta chance to wreck Australia again

Right on Cyberman, right on.

We dont need this stupid incompetent government to continue to destroy australia as it has any longer, we have a chance this saturday to end it.

Labor clings to narrow margin in latest Newspoll
August 16, 2010 12:00AM


The Gillard government still holds a narrow lead in national polling - 52 to 48 per cent on two-party-preferred terms - enough to scrape home on Saturday. But Labor still fears losing seats in NSW and Queensland.

During the past week of campaigning, there has been no change to the standing of the parties on a nationwide basis.

The latest Newspoll survey, taken exclusively for The Australian from Friday to yesterday, was unchanged on a two-party-preferred basis, with Labor four points ahead.

The primary vote was virtually unchanged as well, with Labor trailing the Coalition 38 per cent to 41 per cent, while the Greens were on 14 per cent.

The latest Newspoll found that Labor had almost drawn level with the Coalition on the question of which party would manage the economy better, cutting the 12-percentage-point lead the Coalition held three weeks ago to just one point.

Ms Gillard remained well clear of the Opposition Leader as preferred prime minister, 50 per cent to 35 per cent with an unchanged lead of 15 percentage points.


http://www.theaustralian.com.au/national-affairs/labor-clings-to-narrow-margin-in-latest-newspoll/story-fn59niix-1225905619018

There is no confusion in the polls, as Antony Green proved yesterday the galaxy poll was a Labor win as well, that means EVERY POLL in the last few days predicts a Labor win.
That said, as I said yesterday the galaxy poll was a poll of only 200 people an electorate, useless, though I expect News lmd knew that and posted it up to give the Libs a bit of encouragement.
I note the News lmd press are advocating a LABOR win, Ackerman is cutting his drug riddled wrists as we type.

Keeping up the same results is todays poll, TPP Labor 52/48


Quote:

Newspoll: 52-48 to Labor Sunday, August 15, 2010 – 10:22 pm, by William Bowe The Australian reports the latest Newspoll has Labor leading 52-48, from primary votes of 38 per cent Labor (steady), 41 per cent Coalition (down one) and 14 per cent Greens (up one). There’s also that rare thing – an interesting finding on an attitudinal question, this being a plunge in the Coalition’s lead as “better to manage the economy” from 12 per cent to 1 per cent. Chief suspects: Labor’s Hewson-Costello ads and the Coalition’s costings confusion, much of which would have escaped the Sunday-to-Thursday time frame of the great Galaxy mega-poll.

i'm in pain skippy

Sprintcyclist wrote on Aug 16^th, 2010 at 9:34am:

i'm in pain skippy

Better you than me,sprint.

hahahah

all the best mate

Labor in the lead ahead of campaign launch
By Sarah Collerton
2 hours 38 minutes ago

Federal Labor will launch its election campaign in Brisbane today buoyed by recent poll results showing a late surge in voter support for the Government.

The latest Newspoll suggests the Government has reclaimed some of the ground it lost when Cabinet leaks and confusion over Kevin Rudd's future appeared to rattle Prime Minister Julia Gillard.

The poll in the Australian newspaper shows Labor is 4 per cent ahead, with 52 per cent of the two-party preferred vote compared to the Coalition's 48 per cent.

The Coalition has dropped 1 per cent in the primary vote to 41 per cent and the Greens have risen to 14 per cent, while Labor's primary vote is steady at 38.


http://www.abc.net.au/news/stories/2010/08/15/2983473.htm



Reader comments ....

the yank:
16 Aug 2010 7:25:49am
Anyone's guess but with the Labor party have their big day in Brisbane tonight and with Abbott exposing both his unwillingness to compromise and his fear of debating the economy, (show that man the white feather) Labor should fall over the line..


Wagner:
16 Aug 2010 7:43:58am
The ALP will be returned albeit with a reduced majority.

They probably don't deserve it given their performance over the last 3 years but Tony Abbott has failed to present himself as a clearly better option.


dazzle:
16 Aug 2010 8:04:01am
On the contrary, Labour probably do deserve a second term.

I recall voters giving Howard a second term after his disasterous first term. I forget how many Ministers were pushed from office becsue of breaches, but it was a significant number. Labour's first term had little of this credibility problem.

The management of the economy has been good by any reasonable standard and has been widely acknowledged world wide.



More commens in URL



I'm quite hap[y to see these polls so close, or even with Labor occaisionally trailing in some demographics
It appears the electorate wamt to give the Government a good kick in the bum, but have a niggling fear of inadvertantly electing Tony Abbott as Prime Minister in the process

Quote:

I'm quite hap[y to see these polls so close, or even with Labor occaisionally trailing in some demographics It appears the electorate wamt to give the Government a good kick in the bum, but have a niggling fear of inadvertantly electing Tony Abbott as Prime Minister in the process

I think this comment is spot on.
That's why I think the polls have all changed back to what they were to begin with, some people wanted to give Labor a wake up call but when it came to the crunch of electing Abbott as PM, it got too scary.

Vanessa wrote on Aug 15^th, 2010 at 8:20pm:

Verge wrote on Aug 15th, 2010 at 7:55pm: What it tells me is this election is pretty much on a knife edge, however history tells us the odds are heavily stacked against the coalition. How is that the case? Wouldn't the odds be against the ALP, seeing they had to fight for 12 years to gain power while the Liberals were controlling the country?

History tells us there isnt many first term governments, hence the reason for my comment.

Verge wrote on Aug 16^th, 2010 at 10:24am:

Vanessa wrote on Aug 15th, 2010 at 8:20pm: Verge wrote on Aug 15th, 2010 at 7:55pm: What it tells me is this election is pretty much on a knife edge, however history tells us the odds are heavily stacked against the coalition. How is that the case? Wouldn't the odds be against the ALP, seeing they had to fight for 12 years to gain power while the Liberals were controlling the country? History tells us there isnt many first term governments, hence the reason for my comment.

Today's Poll3936 votes since Aug 15 2010
Have you decided who you will vote for on Saturday?
Yes - Labor 25% 969 votes
Yes - Coalition 56% 2206 votes
Yes - Minor party 9% 354 votes
No, not yet 10% 407 votes

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:D

Labor figures have reacted with caution to today's Newspoll, which gives the ALP a narrow lead over the Coalition as both sides ramp up their pitch to voters in the last week of the election campaign.

Today's Newspoll puts Labor ahead on 52 per cent to 48 per cent after preferences, but still trailing the Coalition in the primary vote by three points on 38 per cent.

Government frontbencher Chris Bowen has told NewsRadio he expects the election to be the closest since 1961, when Robert Menzies' Coalition beat Arthur Calwell's ALP by just two seats in the House of Representatives.

"No party is in a position saying they're going to win," he said.

"There are plenty of polls which still show us behind. This'll be tight, it'll go down to the wire - it'll be a long night."

The Newspoll also shows only 56 per cent of those polled had made a final decision on who they would vote for.

Coalition frontbencher Andrew Robb says that still puts the Coalition in a competitive position.

"A lot of people [are] still clearly making up their mind," he told ABC News 24.

"If you look at the polls, up to 40 per cent could change their vote, which is unprecedented."

Opposition Leader Tony Abbott has declared himself the underdog but maintains many Australians are disappointed with Labor.

"This is a Government which is hoping to get back into office through fear and smear," he said.

The tight Newspoll also shows that Labor has closed the gap by 12 points on which party voters think can better handle the economy.

The economy will be a major focus of this week's campaigning as Mr Abbott and Prime Minister Julia Gillard continue to brawl over whether a debate should be held this week.

Mr Abbott wants a town hall-style meeting in Brisbane but Ms Gillard will only agree if they debate the economy first.

Mr Bowen has accused Mr Abbott of going to "any lengths" to avoid debating the economy.

"If he's got nothing to hide he wouldn't cowardly run away from a debate on the economy," he said.

But Mr Abbott says Ms Gillard is the one lacking courage.

"I don't see why she's running scared by the people of Queensland," he said.

http://www.abc.net.au/news/stories/2010/08/16/2983734.htm?section=justin

You keep holding onto that phone poll Burwood,(how many times did you vote in it?)lol lol , its the only way you'll get the result you want.