As suggested on Yahoo some time ago, I suspect that Labor would prefer to go to the next election, sooner, rather than later, for various reasons.

I was of the opinion that August would have been the most likely candidate, given events that would interupt at other times.

I am still of the same opinion, with perhaps early October, as their second preference!

Aren't they a bit disorganised at the moment?

I've just read something predicting an August election. I think it would be a big mistake; Gillard needs a chance to let the emotion surrounding Rudd's ousting settle down first, and also get some success as PM under her belt.

She probably wants to get in before the Libs overthrow unpopular Abbott.

I don't know which way the Labs should go - I suppose we should get a feel for their leanings, after a few of the more-reliable outbound polls over the coming fortnight or so...

I recking you're right about the Abbott factor, Annie - the Labs won't want to push the Libs to roll him prematurely - he's one of the Labs' best assets...

I'll put this here I haven't noticed it anywhere else on the forum.
In the first poll taken since the Gillard coup Labor are set to romp to victory, read em and weep Abbott lovers.
The best thing about this poll is that its from the lib Gazett, so the real numbers are probably much larger.


Quote:

JULIA Gillard will take Labor to victory in an early election with a stunning return to fortune for the Federal Government. That's the prediction of the first exclusive opinion poll taken in the aftermath of Kevin Rudd's dismissal, with the Gillard effect pushing Labor back into poll position almost overnight The exclusive Galaxy opinion survey commissioned by The Daily Telegraph revealed Labor's primary vote surged from 37 per cent to 41 per cent, lifting it back into a winnable position as voters sent a loud and clear message that Mr Rudd had been the problem. The Coalition was at 42 per cent, down one percentage point. More importantly, Ms Gillard was rated the preferred prime minister with 58 per cent to Opposition Leader Tony Abbott's 32 per cent. More people said they would rather have a beer with Ms Gillard that Mr Abbott, and 52 per cent said he was not someone they liked much. The two-party preferred vote had Labor at 52 per cent and the Coalition at 48 per cent. In the 2007 election, Labor won with 52.7 per cent as the Coalition gained 47.3 per cent.

Gillard should go to an election quickly while she has the honymoon, that said, Abbott is not popular at all.

At first I was agreeing that Oct was better than August and to wait,  for the reasons many here have given...

However , If the powerful media & miners like clive palmer are  against Labor as a party they will focus their $$$ on bring Julia down   also.
We just witness a very tough short and dirty fight by them on our leader. Or is it the whole Labor Party they want out !   :o

Quote:

Or is it the whole Labor Party they want out

Probably.

Of course, I want the whole labor party out.
but, I think gillard will win easily

I think they should call an election at the earliest possible date they can. like whoever said, Abbott as the opposition leader is Labor's best assett. Bring it on Julie!

yeah, bring it on, Julia. Then we can have a double dissolution and another election, and even another one, until they get the deficits back into surplus, like they were given.

perceptions_now wrote on Jun 26^th, 2010 at 12:19pm:

As suggested on Yahoo some time ago, I suspect that Labor would prefer to go to the next election, sooner, rather than later, for various reasons. I was of the opinion that August would have been the most likely candidate, given events that would interupt at other times. I am still of the same opinion, with perhaps early October, as their second preference!

Could someone fill me in on the finer details?
As i understand it the federal parliament operates on a 3 year term.

While I realise they can go to the polls early, I cant see how they can go past the weekend closest to 24 Nov.

There has been talk of as late as March- April next year.

I would like to know how this works.  :P

Gillard has said that the election will be in 2010, because it's "game on" - except she hasn't been elected by the Australian people as a prime ministerial candidate. So she really needs some street cred, and thinks she has it in the bag because she's a woman.
There is some leeway over and above the three year period for them to get things organised, if they needed to.
Even if they win they're up the creek though because they have backed themselves into an untenable corner with the huge deficit spending they have racked up. That will cause huge inflation and mortgage rate increases during the next term of government whoever is in. Labor deserves to get the blame for that, because they will have caused it. If the libs (or any combination of others) get in they'll have to deal with it through austerity and you'll hear the labor people bleating to kingdom come that it's all the libs fault.
Personally I hope labor gets thrashed at the election because of what they've done, but there will be satisfaction in seeing them re-elected and then have to deal with their own kitty litter.

to be fair, I should add that I hope that Gillard gets a landslide against her by fair-thinking Australians because of the underhanded backstabbing manner in which she (always intended) to usurp a sitting Australian Prime Minister. (But she will keep her prime ministerial benefits for the rest of her life courtesy of the Australian taxpayer, even if and when she ever uses her dual citizenship status to pull up stumps and move back to England, or Wales, wherever she came from.)

Lobo wrote on Jun 26^th, 2010 at 4:54pm:

perceptions_now wrote on Jun 26th, 2010 at 12:19pm: As suggested on Yahoo some time ago, I suspect that Labor would prefer to go to the next election, sooner, rather than later, for various reasons. I was of the opinion that August would have been the most likely candidate, given events that would interupt at other times. I am still of the same opinion, with perhaps early October, as their second preference! Could someone fill me in on the finer details? As i understand it the federal parliament operates on a 3 year term. While I realise they can go to the polls early, I cant see how they can go past the weekend closest to 24 Nov. There has been talk of as late as March- April next year. I would like to know how this works.  :P

http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Next_Australian_federal_election

NorthOfNorth wrote on Jun 26^th, 2010 at 5:16pm:

Lobo wrote on Jun 26th, 2010 at 4:54pm: perceptions_now wrote on Jun 26th, 2010 at 12:19pm: As suggested on Yahoo some time ago, I suspect that Labor would prefer to go to the next election, sooner, rather than later, for various reasons. I was of the opinion that August would have been the most likely candidate, given events that would interupt at other times. I am still of the same opinion, with perhaps early October, as their second preference! Could someone fill me in on the finer details? As i understand it the federal parliament operates on a 3 year term. While I realise they can go to the polls early, I cant see how they can go past the weekend closest to 24 Nov. There has been talk of as late as March- April next year. I would like to know how this works.  :P http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Next_Australian_federal_election

Further to Helian's post, the following excerpt clarifies the dates issue.


The last federal election was held on 24 November 2007. The last date on which the next election can be held is calculated in the following way:[4]

Section 12 of the Constitution says: "The Governor of any State may cause writs to be issued for the election of Senators for that State"
Section 13 of the Constitution provides that the election of Senators shall be held in the period of twelve months before the places become vacant.
Section 28 of the Constitution says: "Every House of Representatives shall continue for three years from the first sitting of the House, and no longer, but may be sooner dissolved by the Governor-General."[5]
Section 32 of the Constitution says: "The writs shall be issued within ten days from the expiry of a House of Representatives or from the proclamation of a dissolution thereof."
Section 156 (1) of the Commonwealth Electoral Act 1918 (CEA) says: "The date fixed for the nomination of the candidates shall not be less than 10 days nor more than 27 days after the date of the writ". [6]
Section 157 of the CEA says: "The date fixed for the polling shall not be less than 23 days nor more than 31 days after the date of nomination". [7]
Section 158 of the CEA says: "The day fixed for the polling shall be a Saturday". [8]
"The first meeting of the House of Representatives and the 42nd Parliament occurred on 12 February 2008.[9][10] Therefore it expires on 11 February 2011, unless dissolved sooner. (Of Australia's 41 completed parliaments, only one, the 3rd Parliament 1907-1910, continued for the full three years, all the others having been dissolved earlier.[11]) The writs must therefore be issued by 21 February 2011 (ten days after the expiry). The last date on which nominations can close is therefore 20 March 2011 (27 days after the writs). The last day that is a Saturday and no more than 31 days following the close of nominations is 16 April 2011."

That said, I would prefer and am in favour of change to -
Fixed term Elections and I would prefer a 4 year term, perhaps in October, with the senate, State & Local (if they still exist) elections are the same date.

perceptions_now wrote on Jun 26^th, 2010 at 5:34pm:

NorthOfNorth wrote on Jun 26th, 2010 at 5:16pm: Lobo wrote on Jun 26th, 2010 at 4:54pm: perceptions_now wrote on Jun 26th, 2010 at 12:19pm: As suggested on Yahoo some time ago, I suspect that Labor would prefer to go to the next election, sooner, rather than later, for various reasons. I was of the opinion that August would have been the most likely candidate, given events that would interupt at other times. I am still of the same opinion, with perhaps early October, as their second preference! Could someone fill me in on the finer details? As i understand it the federal parliament operates on a 3 year term. While I realise they can go to the polls early, I cant see how they can go past the weekend closest to 24 Nov. There has been talk of as late as March- April next year. I would like to know how this works.  :P http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Next_Australian_federal_election Further to Helian's post, the following excerpt clarifies the dates issue. The last federal election was held on 24 November 2007. The last date on which the next election can be held is calculated in the following way:[4] Section 12 of the Constitution says: "The Governor of any State may cause writs to be issued for the election of Senators for that State" Section 13 of the Constitution provides that the election of Senators shall be held in the period of twelve months before the places become vacant. Section 28 of the Constitution says: "Every House of Representatives shall continue for three years from the first sitting of the House, and no longer, but may be sooner dissolved by the Governor-General."[5] Section 32 of the Constitution says: "The writs shall be issued within ten days from the expiry of a House of Representatives or from the proclamation of a dissolution thereof." Section 156 (1) of the Commonwealth Electoral Act 1918 (CEA) says: "The date fixed for the nomination of the candidates shall not be less than 10 days nor more than 27 days after the date of the writ". [6] Section 157 of the CEA says: "The date fixed for the polling shall not be less than 23 days nor more than 31 days after the date of nomination". [7] Section 158 of the CEA says: "The day fixed for the polling shall be a Saturday". [8] "The first meeting of the House of Representatives and the 42nd Parliament occurred on 12 February 2008.[9][10] Therefore it expires on 11 February 2011, unless dissolved sooner. (Of Australia's 41 completed parliaments, only one, the 3rd Parliament 1907-1910, continued for the full three years, all the others having been dissolved earlier.[11]) The writs must therefore be issued by 21 February 2011 (ten days after the expiry). The last date on which nominations can close is therefore 20 March 2011 (27 days after the writs). The last day that is a Saturday and no more than 31 days following the close of nominations is 16 April 2011." That said, I would prefer and am in favour of change to - Fixed term Elections and I would prefer a 4 year term, perhaps in October, with the senate, State & Local (if they still exist) elections are the same date.

Many thanks to helian and perceptions.

wrote on Jun 26^th, 2010 at 2:22pm:

We just witness a very tough short and dirty fight by them on our leader.

You think that was "tough short and dirty"?

It was nothing compared to crap from all sides re Work Choices. I think we'll see a lot tougher and dirtier when the election is called, hopefully sooner rather than later.