http://au.news.yahoo.com/a/-/latest/7424664/voters-go-to-the-polls-for-penrith-seat/

Polls have opened in the electorate of Penrith in western Sydney with Labor expected to take a battering.

Polling stations opened at 8am (AEST) on Saturday with eight candidates vying for the Penrith seat, which stretches into the lower Blue Mountains, taking in the well-off suburbs of Lapstone and Glenbrook.

Over 46,000 people are registered to vote in the electorate.

The Liberal Party's Stuart Ayres has gone into the by-election as the favourite, but still needs to overcome a swing of more than 9.2 per cent toward Labor.

Centrebet has Mr Ayres as favourite to win at $1.05 compared to Labor candidate John Thain's $7.50.

Thain is a former Penrith councillor.

Saturday's by-election was sparked by the resignation of disgraced Labor MP Karen Paluzzano who admitted to misusing public funds and lying about it.

NSW Opposition Leader Barry O'Farrell says a vote for Mr Ayres means a vote for change - and that a victory in Penrith would signal a change in state government next year.

Premier Kristina Keneally said she expected a Labor loss, even tipping that voter dismay could trigger a swing of up to 30 per cent against the government.

Other candidates include Suzie Wright for the Greens, Independent Noel Selby, Democrat Jose Sanz, the Outdoor Recreation Party's David Leyonhjelm, Andrew Green for the Christian Democratic Party and Australia First's Mick Saunders.
Polls close at 6pm (AEST).

Well, the booths have now closed...

So, it won't be long, before we find out which of the representatives of the lesser of the LibLab evils will get up...

I wonder whether the Lib candidate's chances will be in any way affected by his association with Federal pollie Jackie Kelly (whose husband was involved in that infamous dirty tricks campaign)...

I suppose it depends upon whether there has been sufficient publicity of that association, eh!?

Equitist wrote on Jun 19^th, 2010 at 6:33pm:

I wonder whether the Lib candidate's chances will be in any way affected by his association with Federal pollie Jackie Kelly (whose husband was involved in that infamous dirty tricks campaign)... I suppose it depends upon whether there has been sufficient publicity of that association, eh!?

25% swing predicted by Richo
As for the association it's the 1st I've heard about it

http://www.abc.net.au/elections/nsw/2010/penrith/commentary.htm

Good old Antony  :-/

Penrith is traditionally an ALP seat. The Greens have been making some noise about how good they are - lets see the swings to the Greens tonight.

Early counting suggests a significant anti-Lab swing: -


http://www.abc.net.au/elections/nsw/2010/penrith/result.htm


I wonder how the final result in this seat will compare to other recent State and Federal by-elections...

Maqqa wrote on Jun 19^th, 2010 at 7:22pm:

Penrith is traditionally an ALP seat. The Greens have been making some noise about how good they are - lets see the swings to the Greens tonight.

Early counting gives Greens 11.5% of vote a 5.9% swing

1 minute ago

THE New South Wales opposition has almost certainly won the Penrith by-election, with early counting showing swings of 15 to 20 per cent being recorded in some booths.

Did anyone else notice the Labor signs outside the polling booths?
Big picture of KKK and NOT one mention of Labor anywhere.
Has NSW become a republic and we don't know about it?
Someone ought to remind the ALP Australian vote for a party NOT a particular leader. Then again their biggest problem IS the fact they are NSW Labor.
Latest update

Name      Party      Votes      % Vote      Swing
John Thain      ALP      8200      24.4              -24.2
Suzie Wright      GRN      4221      12.6              +7.0
Mick Saunders      -      724              2.2              +2.2
Stuart Ayres      LIB      17067      50.9              +18.3
David Leyonhjelm ORP 648      1.9               +1.9
Jose Sanz      DEM      297      0.9      ..
Andrew Green      CDP      1516      4.5               -1.7
Noel Selby      IND      884              2.6                +2.6
....      OTH      0                              0.0               -6.1
Formal Votes            33557            
Informal            1227      3.5      
Total Votes / Turnout            34784      75.1      

Big win for Liberals in Hawkesbury Council by-election as well.

;D  ;D  :D  8-)

TWENTY FIVE PERCENT swing against labor!!! imagine if Rudd got even HALF of that in a federal election! Labor would lose on NSW results alone!

bye bye ruddy!!!

suck on that you limp wristed leftards.


Quote:

............One federal MP, who predicted a ''horrific'' result, said: ''We [federal Labor] are not helped by the problems at the state level.'' Another ventured: ''The brand name Labor stinks … and Kevin [Rudd] is an issue.'' Yet another described Penrith as an ''absolute disaster'' for federal MPs whose electorates overlapped the state seat..............

http://www.smh.com.au/nsw/labor-laid-to-waste-as-liberals-win-the-west-20100619-yo5c.html


hopefully, this is the end of the left forever.
it belongs to a bygone era, like dinosaurs, unicycles and paddlewheelers.

I wonder whether the Lib candidate's chances will be in any way affected by his association with Federal pollie Jackie Kelly (whose husband was involved in that infamous dirty tricks campaign)...

I suppose it depends upon whether there has been sufficient publicity of that association, eh!?
____________________

LOL, Clearly you don't live in the electorate Nem. LOL LOL LOL.

:D

I just watched some of those voting and they were so disillusioned with labor it wasnt funny. but no one asked them why did they giv e them so many chances.. to think that in this day and age people will vote for a pretty face and a frozen hairstyle is pathetic to say the least.

I shall be watching Q&A this week as Richardson is on and I will be interested to see what his take is on this..

if rudd gets thumped by as much as 25%.. history will put him lower than Latham in ALP annals I am sure

This could be the green flag the ALP need to get Gillard to take over the leadership. If Rudd stays on they will get annihilated. I think it will be a much closer result if Gillard is leader, maybe even a win, although with the results in NSW, and 65% of Qld saying they wouldn't vote for Bligh, people might be 'off' the ladies for a while now.

Gillard and Turnbull could be an interesting race.

iamtheman012 wrote on Jun 20^th, 2010 at 5:03am:

I wonder whether the Lib candidate's chances will be in any way affected by his association with Federal pollie Jackie Kelly (whose husband was involved in that infamous dirty tricks campaign)... I suppose it depends upon whether there has been sufficient publicity of that association, eh!? ____________________ LOL, Clearly you don't live in the electorate Nem. LOL LOL LOL. :D

Nemesis is DESPERATE to believe that libs will lose the next election. its embarrasasing, really!

Ex Dame Pansi wrote on Jun 20^th, 2010 at 7:50am:

This could be the green flag the ALP need to get Gillard to take over the leadership. If Rudd stays on they will get annihilated. I think it will be a much closer result if Gillard is leader, maybe even a win, although with the results in NSW, and 65% of Qld saying they wouldn't vote for Bligh, people might be 'off' the ladies for a while now. Gillard and Turnbull could be an interesting race.

You cant get over the fact that ABBOTT is the leader - not Turnball. and with the polls he is acheiveing, there is no way that will change this side of an election!

longweekend58 wrote on Jun 20^th, 2010 at 8:58am:

iamtheman012 wrote on Jun 20th, 2010 at 5:03am: I wonder whether the Lib candidate's chances will be in any way affected by his association with Federal pollie Jackie Kelly (whose husband was involved in that infamous dirty tricks campaign)... I suppose it depends upon whether there has been sufficient publicity of that association, eh!? ____________________ LOL, Clearly you don't live in the electorate Nem. LOL LOL LOL. :D Nemesis is DESPERATE to believe that libs will lose the next election. its embarrasasing, really!

No, I don't live in the area - but one of my brothers does. Actually, I headed out to Penrith/Emu Plains for a Saturday night skate with my son not so long ago - and (given the area's past reputation) I was pleasantly surprised about the type of people I met there!

As for your assertions re NSW and Federal LibLabs...

We NSW voters may not like the Lab Govt but that is largely because they have shifted too far to the right into Lib political territory...

The Federal Labs, for all their problems, have recently shifted back towards the centre - and this is a good thing. But the Libs have inexplicably shifted to the far religious right - and Action Man Abbo is a particularly scary option for the typical swinging voter.

Even with the walking corpse O'Farrell at the helm of the Opposition, it would be almost impossible for the NSW Labs to claw back and scrape over the line at the next election - but the Federal Labs (led by Rudd or Gillard) are still likely to defeat the Lib rabble under the dogmatic but erratic Abbott.

Either way, some of you Lib supporters are calling premature electoral Federal Lib victory...

||The Federal Labs, for all their problems, have recently shifted back towards the centre - and this is a good thing. But the Libs have inexplicably shifted to the far religious right - and Action Man Abbo is a particularly scary option for the typical swinging voter.||

That is a truly absurd post. Labor have moved back the the centre?? care to articulate the reasoning behind that? They are as right-wing as they ever have been - perhaps more so. And your problem is that when ANYONE in politics claims to be religious, you automatically place them in the 'right of genghis khan' category. It's not really a balanced viewpoint.

I think Labor is stuffed at the next Fed Election...

Going by the swing at Penrith, Rudd looks like being history.

2007 was classed as a 'landslide' victory, and the swing to Labor was only about 5.7% on average....

I don't even know HOW to classify a 25% swing...

Media tend to use the term 'landslide' inappropriately. the 2007 loss was a moderate loss with 5% swings being fairly common when govts change. the two recent state elections had 8-10% swings but 25% is a truly massive slaughter and if carried across the state could lead to a parliament almost without ALP representation. and to beleive that some of this anti-labor angst wont spill into the federal arena is absurd fantasy. Of course it will. the only question is how much.

Why will Gillard be a better leader than Rudd, all the bugger ups this gov has produced, Gillards hands have been firmly on those same levers with Rudds.

She is no better than him, actually I think she is worse she has defended everything more vigorously than Rudd, the BER the NBN the border disaster you name it it fell apart and she was a big part of it.

K unt wrote on Jun 20^th, 2010 at 2:14pm:

Why will Gillard be a better leader than Rudd, all the bugger ups this gov has produced, Gillards hands have been firmly on those same levers with Rudds. She is no better than him, actually I think she is worse she has defended everything more vigorously than Rudd, the BER the NBN the border disaster you name it it fell apart and she was a big part of it.

I dont think labor will change leaders now. It is too late. An election is due in a few months and a new leader wont have time to stamp their authority on things, especially when so much is going wrong. All they wil do is get associated with the mess. Best for labor to let Rudd take the fall and then regroup with new leaders and policies for the inevitable 12 years of opposition to follow.

Yo Bates, I've highlighted the keyword that you obviously missed: -


longweekend58 wrote on Jun 20^th, 2010 at 1:56pm:

||The Federal Labs, for all their problems, have recently shifted back towards the centre - and this is a good thing. But the Libs have inexplicably shifted to the far religious right - and Action Man Abbo is a particularly scary option for the typical swinging voter.|| That is a truly absurd post. Labor have moved back the the centre?? care to articulate the reasoning behind that? They are as right-wing as they ever have been - perhaps more so. And your problem is that when ANYONE in politics claims to be religious, you automatically place them in the 'right of genghis khan' category. It's not really a balanced viewpoint.

PS Master Bates, I see that you've clocked up sufficient posts to become a 'Full Member' - how ironic, eh!?

(Perhaps even more ironically, I'm still a few posts short...and it would seem that Bobby beat you...)

Equitist wrote on Jun 20^th, 2010 at 2:31pm:

Yo Bates, I've highlighted the keyword that you obviously missed: - longweekend58 wrote on Jun 20th, 2010 at 1:56pm: ||The Federal Labs, for all their problems, have recently shifted back towards the centre - and this is a good thing. But the Libs have inexplicably shifted to the far religious right - and Action Man Abbo is a particularly scary option for the typical swinging voter.|| That is a truly absurd post. Labor have moved back the the centre?? care to articulate the reasoning behind that? They are as right-wing as they ever have been - perhaps more so. And your problem is that when ANYONE in politics claims to be religious, you automatically place them in the 'right of genghis khan' category. It's not really a balanced viewpoint.

FEEL FREE to substantiate that claim with examples.

Yo Bates!

FEEL FREE to FEEL yourself  :P

Equitist wrote on Jun 20^th, 2010 at 2:47pm:

Yo Bates! FEEL FREE to FEEL yourself  :P

so you are saying that your claim that labor is moving to the center has no evidence?

THOUGHT SO!

longweekend58 wrote on Jun 20^th, 2010 at 2:51pm:

Equitist wrote on Jun 20th, 2010 at 2:47pm: Yo Bates! FEEL FREE to FEEL yourself  :P so you are saying that your claim that labor is moving to the center has no evidence? THOUGHT SO!

LOL...ask a rhetorical question, get a rhetorical statement!?

are you deliberately trying to make no sense? coz if you are, you are succeeding!

longweekend58 wrote on Jun 20^th, 2010 at 2:56pm:

are you deliberately trying to make no sense? coz if you are, you are succeeding!

Moi, obtuse!?  ::)


PS If I'm right (as in 'correct'), this otherwise pointless post renders me a 'full member'!

longweekend58 wrote on Jun 20^th, 2010 at 2:17pm:

K unt wrote on Jun 20th, 2010 at 2:14pm: Why will Gillard be a better leader than Rudd, all the bugger ups this gov has produced, Gillards hands have been firmly on those same levers with Rudds. She is no better than him, actually I think she is worse she has defended everything more vigorously than Rudd, the BER the NBN the border disaster you name it it fell apart and she was a big part of it. I dont think labor will change leaders now. It is too late. An election is due in a few months and a new leader wont have time to stamp their authority on things, especially when so much is going wrong. All they wil do is get associated with the mess. Best for labor to let Rudd take the fall and then regroup with new leaders and policies for the inevitable 12 years of opposition to follow.

If Labor runs true to the form they've showed over the past 15 yrs or so....then YES they will try to change leaders, even as late as 4-6 months out from an election....

After all, how many times did the Labor Caucus kick Kim Beazley out of the Leadership...'just' before an election???

gizmo_2655 wrote on Jun 20^th, 2010 at 3:43pm:

longweekend58 wrote on Jun 20th, 2010 at 2:17pm: K unt wrote on Jun 20th, 2010 at 2:14pm: Why will Gillard be a better leader than Rudd, all the bugger ups this gov has produced, Gillards hands have been firmly on those same levers with Rudds. She is no better than him, actually I think she is worse she has defended everything more vigorously than Rudd, the BER the NBN the border disaster you name it it fell apart and she was a big part of it. I dont think labor will change leaders now. It is too late. An election is due in a few months and a new leader wont have time to stamp their authority on things, especially when so much is going wrong. All they wil do is get associated with the mess. Best for labor to let Rudd take the fall and then regroup with new leaders and policies for the inevitable 12 years of opposition to follow. If Labor runs true to the form they've showed over the past 15 yrs or so....then YES they will try to change leaders, even as late as 4-6 months out from an election.... After all, how many times did the Labor Caucus kick Kim Beazley out of the Leadership...'just' before an election???

UMMM, none? is that a trick question? the closest Labor had a leadership vote before an election whilst in opposition was over twelve months, when Kevvie came to power.
About the same time Abbott has led the Libs, LOL ::)

I don't know why you make it out that its such a bad thing though, if the Libs had the balls to dump the rodent before the last election you wouldn't have as many seats to try and win back this time around.

Thats a presumption and Howard was still the best chance for success. The fact it didnt work doesnt mean that Costello would have succeeded. And a loss is a loss. changing the margin slightly woudl ahve acheived little. And the way Rudd is going no one will care since Libs will be beack in power for ANOTHER 12 years before christmas!

wonder if the libs will be able to repy alps debt this time?


Quote:

NSW Labor suffers massive loss in Penrith by-election

what a lovely heading ...........

http://www.theaustralian.com.au/politics/nsw-labor-suffers-massive-loss-in-penrith-by-election/story-e6frgczf-1225881842073

Sprintcyclist wrote on Jun 20^th, 2010 at 7:22pm:

wonder if the libs will be able to repy alps debt this time? Quote: NSW Labor suffers massive loss in Penrith by-election what a lovely heading ........... http://www.theaustralian.com.au/politics/nsw-labor-suffers-massive-loss-in-penrith-by-election/story-e6frgczf-1225881842073

even labor luminaries are now predicting that federal labor wil be in oppoition for 'a generation'. perhaps a tad negative, but 12 years sounds about right. Rudd will have destroyed labor as badly as Whitlam did - perhaps worse.

Longweekend:

Quote:

even labor luminaries are now predicting that federal labor wil be in oppoition for 'a generation'. perhaps a tad negative, but 12 years sounds about right. Rudd will have destroyed labor as badly as Whitlam did - perhaps worse.

I actually agree with Longweekend here & that is only
the 3rd time in 3 years.

longweekend58 wrote on Jun 20^th, 2010 at 7:54pm:

Sprintcyclist wrote on Jun 20th, 2010 at 7:22pm: wonder if the libs will be able to repy alps debt this time? Quote: NSW Labor suffers massive loss in Penrith by-election what a lovely heading ........... http://www.theaustralian.com.au/politics/nsw-labor-suffers-massive-loss-in-penrith-by-election/story-e6frgczf-1225881842073 even labor luminaries are now predicting that federal labor wil be in oppoition for 'a generation'. perhaps a tad negative, but 12 years sounds about right. Rudd will have destroyed labor as badly as Whitlam did - perhaps worse.

Really who? or are you lying again, you'd better have a good cut and paste to back up your assertion, or you'll be branded a liar from here on in.

oooooohhhhhh, leftys, there may be a dislocating between the greens preferences and the alp.
As there should be.


Quote:

.................While the 24 per cent drop in Labor's primary vote was close to predictions, the collapse in the party's vote is being compounded by a collapse in its flow of preferences from the Greens -- a deadly political cocktail that could see Labor reduced to a rump at the state election next year............

http://www.theaustralian.com.au/politics/state-politics/landslide-loss-in-nsw-could-turn-deadly/story-e6frgczx-1225882026787


where to now ??

Sprintcyclist wrote on Jun 21^st, 2010 at 2:39pm:

oooooohhhhhh, leftys, there may be a dislocating between the greens preferences and the alp. As there should be. Quote: .................While the 24 per cent drop in Labor's primary vote was close to predictions, the collapse in the party's vote is being compounded by a collapse in its flow of preferences from the Greens -- a deadly political cocktail that could see Labor reduced to a rump at the state election next year............ http://www.theaustralian.com.au/politics/state-politics/landslide-loss-in-nsw-could-turn-deadly/story-e6frgczx-1225882026787 where to now ??

Did you get this from the OZ again sprint?
In NSW you dont have to preference, so if you want to vote 1 GREENS, that it all you have to do. In a federal election you DO HAVE TO preference, so GREENS voters like myself are forced to preference, I wont be preferencing a climate skeptic party, I cant see any real GREENS voters preferencing a climate skeptic party, its against everything a GREENS voter stands for.

green voters do have some practicality in their minds and morals in their hearts.

rudd is neither

Bobby. wrote on Jun 20^th, 2010 at 7:59pm:

Longweekend: Quote: even labor luminaries are now predicting that federal labor wil be in oppoition for 'a generation'. perhaps a tad negative, but 12 years sounds about right. Rudd will have destroyed labor as badly as Whitlam did - perhaps worse. I actually agree with Longweekend here & that is only the 3rd time in 3 years.

Bobby,
There is actually good reason not to agree with LW, mainly because he is so often wrong!

Seriously, I suggested some time back that -
1) I couldn't see State Labor, in NSW, getting back at their next election.
2) There would be a sizeable swing away from Labor, at a state level and most State Labor would be hard pressed to win, with Victoria being in the best position.
3) Federal Labor would take a hit, but I suspect they will just get over the line.

Although a Liberal win is possible, I suspect the Abbott will become a liability, in the heat of battle?